According to Government data, Covid cases have been on their steepest decline since May, while hospitalisations and deaths have also been steadily decreasing. The Times has more.
Yesterday a further 42,408 people tested positive for Covid across the UK, with the weekly average down 12%.
There were 195 deaths within 28 days of a positive test, and that weekly average was down 4%. And the latest figures on patients admitted to hospital with the virus show 868 admitted on November 7th, with the weekly average down 11%.
Analysis by the Times, looking at the week-on-week change in the rolling seven-day average of case numbers, has found a fall for 16 consecutive days, last seen in May this year.
Julian Hiscox, Professor of Infection and Global Health at Liverpool University, told the Financial Times the downward trend seen in cases was unique because unlike earlier falls it was brought about “almost entirely by the wall of immunity, rather than behavioural changes or restrictions”.
He added: “We could end up in a very nice window thanks to the timing of our booster programme, whereby our peak in population immunity coincides with the winter months when the health service is under most pressure.”
Other experts had cautioned that it was too soon to draw long-term conclusions from case data. Yesterday’s U.K. total was 13% higher than the same day a week earlier.
A separate surveillance report from the U.K. Health Security Agency, the successor agency to Public Health England, also found decreasing Covid activity nationally.
Worth reading in full.
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When the positive test count rises a bit, everyone’s shouting for lockdown. When the positive test count is consistently down: “Other experts had cautioned that it was too soon to draw long-term conclusions from case data.”
Also the MSM stops using actual figures and switches to modelled estimates based on sampling, citing the ratio of infected to non-infected (currently around 1 in 50) and only calculated every 14 days.
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The goal of this game is to get additional measures in place before the cases start falling. Then you can triumphantly claim that the measures worked. Politicians’ “credibility” depends on playing this game well, and it is made easier by the fact that they have earlier access to the case stats than the general public.
I don’t think it’s earlier access to “case” “stats” that gives them the advantage. They have the megaphone, a limitless propaganda budget, and the media, opposition and every powerful institution on the planet are all up to their necks in the Big Lie.
They don’t need case stats. They can just make shit up and no-one questions it.
Like the inverted commas around “cases” thus inferring quite rightly that these are NOT CASES but conjured up figures to frighten people into thinking there’s still (if ever there was) a pandemic. Cases are when people are ill and under a doctor’s care. I surmise in lot of these so called “cases” that people are not ill or feeling poorly or indeed under a doctor’s care (assuming the unlikely event of being able to see a doctor in the first place).
I just discovered a ‘case’ in our storeroom! I approached cautiously, and poked it with a broomstick. It turned out to be a suitcase. Phew! Panic over!
Not sure why you got thumbs down, but such is life…
This is the same game they are playing with climate change. I am pretty much certain that someone out there actually has properly working climate models, or at the very least, they know what the climate will do over a relatively long term of a couple of decades. Scientists are clever enough to figure out this problem and we have the technology to make it happen. But the results of these models are kept secret. I am pretty sure that they know a sharp temperature decrease is on the way, possibly in 2030 to 2040, to coincide with ICE vehicles being banned. So now they are in high gear to implement all these nonsense policies which do absolutely nothing, such that when the weather does get colder they can take full credit for making it happen. Just like Christopher Columbus predicted a lunar eclipse in order to impress Jamaican natives.
But with “cases” today, they don’t even need to try too hard. All they need to do to simulate a drop in “cases” is to cut back on testing.
There are some who downvote rayc’s posts without reading what he says. Sad really.
If Johnson wants to refute the “lockdown earlier, lockdown harder” narrative he will want to avoid restrictions and say he was mislead by Ferguson, Hancock, Gove, Cummings etc etc. I think that is how he ends up smelling of roses especially as the side effects of lockdown become more pronounced.
That’s been the tactic from day one. It’s incredible how many gullible idiots fall for it
Feather and rocket syndrome?
This is what happens when you let the ” ology ” graduates into positions of power….
People who do not know yet just how much they do not know.
Real experts know just how little they know, and this is a sign they know more than the usual person.
A person who has worked to understand something deeply knows that they have only got a little way under the surface, and they are also able to explain what they do know, briefly and comprehensibly, to somebody who knows far less but is interested. The last thing on earth they try to do is to make the other person feel stupid by using lots of long words at them. That kind of behaviour makes them sick and it’s the mark of the poser and idiot – whether it’s some twat who’s been on a 10-hour course or somebody who’s been in a profession for 20 years. Whenever I hear a person use the length of time they’ve been working in a field as support for the notion that they’ve got a deep understanding of it, I always switch off because their belief that time implies depth of understanding indicates the exact opposite. They probably stopped asking questions or learning anything important many many years ago.
Anyway, intelligent people seek frontiers where they can ask difficult questions, decent answers to which will then lead them deeper towards new frontiers.
Dunning Kruger does explain a lot of our problems with politics.
Well said.
You read my mind perfectly; the more I read and watch – most recently Dr Malone eviscerate the Pfizer trial data supplied to the FDA for their EUA application – including the revelation that Pfizer cut and pasted data from MRNA drug trials totally unconnected to SARS COV2 experimental gene editing therapy trials and inserted it into the EUA application according to Dr M which no Health quango in the world has questioned – the more I know that I know very little but consider I am way ahead of the vast majority of the UK “sheeplepop”.
So I swing from “got that” to “have I got that right?” daily which keeps me looking, watching and listening; and nothing I see sways me from the general conclusion this is a casedemic, epidemic, barely worse in lethality to a bad seasonal flu, proven to be treatable early by a suite of (prior approved, and proven as safe) drugs that are easily obtainable. Historically and uniquely inept management of the response has been exacerbated by avoidable deaths, an explosion of mental health illness, a massive increase in waiting lists, an as yet unknown increase in life threatening physical illnesses whether from the jabs or postponed treatments or both.. and yet it is “Groundhog Day” in Europe and if a variant takes off, it will be likewise in the UK…possibly.
And all the time I watch the unravelling of the US official response especially the almost daily confirmation of the wholly corrupt Fauci/NIH/CDC led “program”, with lie after lie exposed. Hard to keep positive as this tidal wave continues….but I feel I have to “keep on keeping on”.
What happened to the earlier comments on this topic – or is it my computer?
The headline of the item has been changed as it was misleading so I assume it has been corrrected and therefore presents afresh.
I hope the earlier comments come back. Many here will be interested in the developments in Austria I think.
Was writing a comment about health and housing policy after WW1 but there’s nothing to hang it on now!
Luke has corrected the headline – but with no admission of earlier error – and all the previous comments have been deleted.
So to repeat.
The Times article seems to have a minor error. It measures cases using the 7 day moving average. This increased on the 1st Nov so it has been declining for 12 days not 16.
Up until 4:00 today daily cases increased for five days in a row. This caused the 7 day moving average to increase yesterday. Today the cases were marginally less than yesterday but the moving average has increased again and will probably do so for several more days.
I fear it is too early to declare victory.
I agree, because we are seeing mass vaccine failure. If we hadn’t vaccinated the healthy population the whole business would have been done and dusted months ago.
“I fear it is too early to declare victory.” Who is declaring victory? The metaphor of a war for the reality of a now endemic respiratory virus is and always was bogus and designed to deceive. The war is against the disciples of Satan. The virus will do what it does, untroubled by interventions of any kind. From the start, the sensible course of action was to calm people down rather than making them petrified, and to put effort into providing better healthcare provision where it was possible that surges may cause significant disruption, and to look into treatments, especially using existing drugs known to be safe.
I agree 100%
The point is not about declaring victory, but about realizing that all the politicians who will be declaring victory after new “measures” are a bunch of liars and manipulators. For this reason alone there is great value in holding the line and not allowing any knee-jerk reactions that the politicians are so fond of. (Except it’s next to impossible because they now have a huge number of brainless sheep begin them crying out for decisive quick action.)
Excellent analysis; what this whole episode has exposed is that, bar a few exceptions, our elected representatives are only interested in feathering their own nests, they don’t give a damn about their constituents.
I am not sure the sheeple are so desperate for their lockdown comfort blanket this time.
one of my friends , a true believer , is happy to blame the un injected or at least believes the ‘ news ‘ that the ‘vaccinated are all fine and the ‘ unccanated are dropping like flies .will they ever
learn ![ the sheep ]do sheep ever learn,none of my sheep friends have chnaged their stripes so to speak or is it spots
All “modern” politicians lie, and lie egregiously – it is in their DNA ( no pun).
Is this casedemic/epidemic any different in context to, say, the unwillingness of politicians to recognise the threat of the Kaiser’s Germany in the late 1800’s and Hitler’s NSDAP in the 1930’s? There were siren voices “in opposition” then – Churchill for one?
I think there is – the never before attempted psyops led response has been determined as an extension of the Gates cadre’s agenda; not sure I buy that, tend to think it is more a chance confluence of money hungry dictator agendas slamming into the politicians, who look up to these power mad oligarchs and who are comfortable with the prospect of being part of their”club”, without having the means to pay the entrance fee. So they suck up to them and allow their evil mindset to colour whatever judgment they possess. It is a cosy cabal of people desperate to be “like them”. Psyops in 2020 not unique – it was employed to devastatingly good effect from circa 1940 to at least 1945.
The “train set” they are playing with – the health and well being of the population – is just that; a toy – the oligarchs cannot buy one, so they use their money to have the use of the “toy”, having no interest if the “toy” gets broken whilst they all play with it.
The response to SARS COV2 is not ideologically driven imho – it is all about the exercise of power and control, a grotesque game, by people who have very little to no idea of the complexities and technicalities of viruses and how to deal with them; and they do not care one jot whether what they do works – if they genuinely did there would be no SAGE, no modelling, early treatments, no OFCOM diktat etc etc, because a constant re-evaluation of the strategy would have meant significant changes – but that has not happened and the loop beckons.
Clare Craig agrees.
Barnstorming speech by Lord Monckton on climate change agenda and Totalitarianism…
https://youtu.be/UGqcweY1a3I
Someone payin’ him by any chance?
Not according to Johnson who predicting ‘storm clouds’, with a latin flourish. The click bait is off the wall
That’s why the MSM love this. They are not interested in investigative reporting, all they care about is ‘click bait’ The Daily Fail is the prime exemplar of this.
This has been going on for a long time – it wasn’t meant to last so long, but no doubt the MSM generally are raking in the rewards:
http://www.newsmediauk.org/Latest/government-partners-with-newspaper-industry-on-covid-19-ad-campaign
But, but, but BoJo the clown has just said that he’s worried about a “spike in cases”! We all know what this means.
Well it doesn’t mean he’s grown a pair of bollocks yet.
Seriously, who cares?
“I must not use the words ‘case’ or ‘infection’ for a bogus positive test result.”
Now stay behind after school and write this out 500 times.
Bad news for the authorities.
What they need to get the numbers up is to have an influx of frail elderly people into hospitals which, as we know, are absolutely riddled with coronavirus.
Now where are they going to find lots of frail elderly people, the kind who are typically found in care homes which are coincidentally on the brink of having to close because the government has sacked the staff?
Oh.
https://www.leicestermercury.co.uk/news/local-news/veterinary-practice-forced-close-following-6195101 following ONE positive test result.
Also in sunny Leicester/shire, the local authorities are hyping up an increase in cases and have announced they are expecting 25% more by Monday. Funny how it’s happening just after COP26, no?
People were predicting there to be a ‘rise in cases’ before Christmas – and so it came to pass. The thing is, is Javid going to lock you all up again and ban you from meeting your families at Christmas?
NOPE!
How many infected MPs in the Houses of Parliament? I bet many of them have tested themselves, got a positive, yet said nothing. All in there jabbering away with no face masks.
Well, they KNOW that muzzles don’t work. Their snivel serpents know too. And as no-one is getting ill, they’re just carrying on as normal – as we all should.
Not surprised at all, remember what happened with the original delta outbreak in India.
Everyone in India died. Fact.
The ongoing COVID-19 nonsense here in the United States exists solely and exclusively because our governments have failed to use the correct treatment. They used so-called “vaccines” when Japan has just proven, in less than ONE MONTH, that Ivermectin can wipe out the disease. IVM was awarded the Nobel prize for medicine in 2015. One of the 3 most important drugs in human history: Aspirin, Penicillin, and Ivermectin. Get your Ivermectin today while you still can! https://ivmpharmacy.com
What a mess.
An encouraging statement but based of data which is several days old. Cases are in fact rising and have been all week. Using seven day averages back plotted by five days is absolutely useless. And what is going on in the rural areas of Scotland? Moray,, Highland, Western Isles and Orkney have rates which are way above Aberdeen City. So what’s that all about ?
Cases are rising on Rockall Island.
They just got a consignment of testing kits, didn’t they?
Oh must be the poison dart – nothing to do with the millions of people who’ve had the C virus before and after the jab and obviously have immunity. Fact: you cannot get reinfected – anything else is not C19 – proven over and over… not much to do with the dart other than it lowers your immunity against variants – so maybe gives you that op. to get the C virus but hey it also can kill and maim
My previous comment having been deleted, I repeat: Cases in most places are not falling they are rising. The rural parts of Scotland (Moray, Highland, Western Isles and Orkney are now seeing rates more than double those of Aberdeen. Shetland has not yet experienced this phenomenon. What is happening here?
Do you actually mean ”cases”? Or just positive (often false) test results from healthy people? And isn’t this due to obsessive ‘testing’ in those places? Perhaps that’s what’s been increasing and has produced this ”phenomenon”. Maybe Shetland hasn’t received enough ‘test’ kits yet.
Covid ‘cases’ are rising in Norway and Finland. Or so they say on the TV ‘News’. Everyone will be dead from Covid before Christmas!
Even your pet cat.
Never mind – they can soon put that right. Just ‘test’ a few hundred thousand more dimwitted thralls (or simply deploy their Dominion-type spreadsheets) and turn up the PCR cycles to 45 or so – and bingo! Job done – a good excuse for Savij Jabid to announce he knows how to save us all…..