When comparing the impact of Covid in different countries, Japan is a clear outlier. In 2020, the country had zero days of mandatory business closures and zero days of mandatory stay-at-home orders. Despite seeing less change in mobility than major European countries, Japan has not had any excess mortality since the pandemic began.
As you may recall, the country hosted the Summer Olympics between 23rd July and 8th August. But even that did not lead to a large number of deaths. It has been suggested that Japanese people, and perhaps East Asians in general, have some degree of prior immunity to the virus.
In January of this year, Japan introduced restrictions on businesses for the first time. Specifically, 11 prefectures (including the capital, Tokyo) prohibited bars and restaurants from selling alcohol after 7pm, and forced them to close at 8pm.
In a recent preprint, Reo Takaku and colleagues investigated the impact of these measures on the spread of Covid. They began by checking whether the measures had their intended effect – of reducing the number of people frequenting bars and restaurants. This cannot be taken for granted: the night curfew in Greece had virtually no impact on mobility.
The researchers analysed survey data collected in the autumn of 2020 (when there were no restrictions in place) and the winter of 2021 (when there were restrictions in place). As the chart below indicates, the measures do appear to have had their intended effects.
The x-axis represents how far respondents lived from the border of a prefecture that introduced restrictions. The blue and green lines (corresponding to the right-hand y-axis) show the fraction of people who went to a bar or restaurant at least once in the relevant month.
The blue line corresponds to the autumn of 2020, and the green line corresponds to the winter of 2021. Notice that the green line is substantially flatter than the blue line, but only on the right-hand side of the chart. This suggests that restrictions did reduce the number of people frequenting bars and restaurants.
Next, the researchers examined whether the measures actually reduced the spread of Covid. To do this, they compared self-reported symptoms among individuals living either side of the border of a prefecture that introduced restrictions. They also controlled for a number of characteristics, such as age, marital status and household income.
As the chart below indicates, they found no evidence that the measures reduced the spread of Covid. Individuals living under restrictions were no less likely to report Covid symptoms than their counterparts on the other side of the border. This was true even for young people, and those who regularly used pubs and restaurants.
One plausible explanation for Takaku and colleagues’ findings is that people simply socialised elsewhere. Another possibility is that restrictions do not have additive effects on transmission; perhaps they only make a difference once practically all public locations are closed (including ‘essential’ ones like grocery stores and pharmacies).
“Given the large detrimental effects on employment,” the authors write, “alternative measures for full-service restaurants and bars should be considered”. And the best alternative measure, I would argue, is returning to business as usual.
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Go Reform, go!
If it’s anything like their declared membership. Ignore it.
23% intend to vote Tory. Why?
It’s not clear whether the %s include those who don’t know/don’t intend to vote, but even so there is still a majority that intend to vote for woke socialist globalist “green” parties. How depressing.
Some of them will previously have intended to vote Reform until the leader of that party stood by his expressed opinion that he admired Putin.
Yeah, which gave us possibly the worst government in British history and left us with the Fake conservatives as Her Majesty’s Opposition. Great result.
You cannot seriously believe that Reform could ever have won the last election. Even they admitted that was never going to happen.
A labour victory was written in stone as soon as the lamentable Mr Johnson caved (quite possibly to Mrs Johnson) regarding lockdowns.
Mr Musk knows a thing or two. Mr Farage has many qualities but he is not and never will be Prime Ministerial material.
The only question in town is whether Mrs Badenoch is of the requisite calibre.
We will not know the answer to that for a while yet.
I didn’t “believe” Reform were going to win the election because I saw the opinion polls and I am aware that we have drifted into being a country full of people who think the “government” can/should/will solve all their problems. But why shouldn’t Reform win the election? Why the hell would any conservative vote Tory after 14 years of being lied to and let down?
I don’t get your logic about lockdowns. Labour wanted more of them.
Badenoch is less of a weasel and more conservative than Sunak or Johnson, and she has bigger balls than both of them put together (not hard) but she is an unrepentant covidian and her party is still full of wets so they can go and do one as far as I am concerned.
If you are waiting for a political leader who is “prime ministerial material” who represents a major party, I hope you are a lot younger than I am and live a lot longer.
We are screwed and will remain so until things get a lot worse or maybe never.
Yes.
If you didn’t believe Reform were going to win, who else could have won except the egregious labour party?
The voters put in the labour party based on them not being the conservative party and for no other reason.
Few outside of here had got the hang of the futility of lockdowns or, indeed, vaccines.
Mr Farage nor his Chairman convinces.
Lee Anderson and Rupert Lowe both have something about them but, for the time being, Reform represent a decent protest vote, nothing more.
As for Mrs Badenoch, easy to condemn but silly.
We have not yet been given a clear view of the cut of her jib, nor will we for a couple of years.
Mr Farage looks like a one trick pony.
Mrs Badenoch may very well be better than that, but the jury is still out….
Mrs Doubtfire meets Rab C Nesbitt.
Silly? If you still think the Fake conservative party deserves power, good luck!
None of them “convince” me. Of the mainstream parties and politicians, Reform are the closest to my views and don’t cross any red lines.
Entirely correct.
Badenoch? You are having a laugh.
I thought Scotland might be the only place where men can get away with wearing a skirt and not look like they’re cross-dressing because they still manage to look masculine. That’s not going to cut it in these Woke times, according to Starmer;
https://x.com/beverleyturner/status/1883229905997136073
Bloody hell !
It’s like if Hattie Jacques and Christopher Biggins had a lovechild….
We are all just stooges in a big comedy sketch…
Putin has many admirable qualities. Hard to imagine anyone surviving for 25 years as the President of a Mafia run state unless he did. Of course some of his qualities are much less admirable, and you don’t have to like him on a personal level, far from it. I think that was what Nigel was saying, but the subtlety and nuance is lost in the MSM. Its a bit like saying Gary Lineker was a fine football striker. It is true, but not a complete summation of him and his character.
Kennedy didn’t want missiles on his border in 1961 as Putin didnt want NATO missiles on his border. Yet Kennedy was lauded as a hero. Go figure.
What the heck is an “open-book test”? And who gets to take an exam paper home??
So basically ‘cheating’ then? I can’t imagine Reform tolerating this;
“Yet again, racial minorities are being patronised by the authorities at Oxford and Cambridge.
More racist policies in the name of “progress”…
https://x.com/andrewdoyle_com/status/1883213109277733126
Nice to see the Telegraph omit that just 20% of the electorate voted Labour.
The problem Reform have – other than Farage as leader – is that in trying to grow quick enough to be able to contest the May elections they are recruiting Tories with questionable views. Think RINOs in the US. We need a fresh party not a rehashed Tory one.
Our County Council Norfolk has cancelled our democracy and elections. The senior staff are rubbing their hands in glee at the thought of a bigger authority meaning higher salaries for them.
Reform and Farage may seem the best option but we are being manipulated into voting for them at a future GE. Like at the GE last year, at this rate I will again have to spoil my ballot paper. There is no one fit for purpose (ie true to God and our country) for whom I can currently vote (except perhaps for David Kurten).
Farage and Tice fully supported the Rona Fascism.
They have nothing to say about the Muslimification of this country or its destruction from ‘legal’ invasion. Focusing on the small boats which are 1-10% of the total problem.
Absolutely!
And 45% would still vote for the collection of psychopaths who have brought our formerly great Britain to its present ruinous state.
Then add in the idiots who would vote Lib Dem and Green and the answer to: are we screwed? becomes apparent.