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According to ONS, No. of Infected Shrunk by 11% Last Week and R Rate Dropped to Below One – and SAGE Wildly Over-Estimated Hospital Admissions

by Toby Young
24 September 2021 3:35 PM

Good news. According to the ONS’s latest infection survey, the number of people infected with COVID-19 in the w/e September 18th was 11% lower than the previous week. MailOnline has more.

The Office for National Statistics’ weekly surveillance report estimated 620,100 people had the virus on any given day in the week to September 18th, down 11% from the previous seven-day spell.

And No 10’s top scientists claimed the R rate has dipped below one for the first time since March and could be as low as 0.8.

In addition – and you won’t believe this – SAGE’s latest projections about Covid hospital admissions were wildly over-pessimistic.

Hospital admissions for COVID-19 have fallen to the lowest level for two months as bleak warnings from government scientists once again failed to materialise.

Latest data shows Britain is ‘over the worst’ of the pandemic after the number of virus patients admitted to hospital fell by 15% in a week.

So far this week, just 557 patients a day have been admitted to English hospitals, despite the Sage committee’s dire warnings of a devastating autumn surge.

Only last week, Sage published modelling warning there could be 7,000 hospitalisations a day within weeks.

But current admissions are half the level of even its ‘best-case scenario’.

Worth reading in full.

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34 Comments
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TheyLiveAndWeLockdown
TheyLiveAndWeLockdown
3 years ago

>But current admissions are half the level of even its ‘best-case scenario’.

Is this technically called a “Fergusson”?

The real result so far outside the error bars of the prediction that it guarantees a knighthood?

Last edited 3 years ago by TheyLiveAndWeLockdown
32
-1
alw
alw
3 years ago

Computer modelling: Junk in, Junk out.

28
-1
TheyLiveAndWeLockdown
TheyLiveAndWeLockdown
3 years ago
Reply to  alw

It’s worse than that.
Much like PCR amplification can make false positives by amplifying crud, Due to “exponential error” in either data or models and that output data being used as input for a future “time slice” the error in data becomes massively magnified.

1% Junk in 2% Junk Out
2% Junk in 4% Junk Out
etc

I.e. take the calc on your computer type in 0.99 (1% error) and hit x^2 a few times. it quickly moves to 0.5 which means even chances of false!

12
-1
Rogerborg
Rogerborg
3 years ago
Reply to  alw

It’s the calculation in the middle that’s the problem here. I took the liberty of reviewing and running Ferguson’s original ICL code which was used as a pretext to send the world into a panic. It’s… appalling, is the word that leaps unbidden to most develops’ lips when they see it.

It’s freely available for anyone wanting to check. Note that “ The model is stochastic. Multiple runs with different seeds should be undertaken to see average behaviour.” doesn’t mean what they think that it means. When run multi-threaded, with the same input and psuedo-random seed, the outputs are non-deterministic.

This is random, not stochastic.

https://github.com/sabrina0417/covid-sim-london

13
0
TheyLiveAndWeLockdown
TheyLiveAndWeLockdown
3 years ago
Reply to  Rogerborg

it’s non-deterministic i.e. crap
When run on different processors or even re run on the same machine it made wildly differing results

They didn’t even know they didn’t have a clue about thread synchronisation etc.
and yet they claimed it would average out!

They should’ve been laughed out of the room.

This is similar to the drivel behind CO2 homeopathy models in that how you get the desired numbers is totally unimportant.

Last edited 3 years ago by TheyLiveAndWeLockdown
11
0
RickH
RickH
3 years ago
Reply to  Rogerborg

If the code is crap, what about the underlying prior assumptions about the variables in that code?

Sounds like crap squared?

Last edited 3 years ago by RickH
13
0
NonCompliant
NonCompliant
3 years ago

I guess it’s time to start bigging up the Mu variant then !!!!!

9
0
JamesM
JamesM
3 years ago

I would like to think that SAGE would be held to account for publishing wildly inaccurate predictions. Such incompetence in other spheres would lead to sackings. It seems public-sector officials can away with anything.

23
0
RickH
RickH
3 years ago
Reply to  JamesM

This is nothing to do with ‘public sector officials’ – it’s about political selection and compliance of independent individuals – the opposite of sound advice.

10
0
stewart
stewart
3 years ago

I can just hear the chants of the faithful:

Better safe than sorry
Better safe than sorry
Better safe than sorry

It’s the mantra of the covidian cult members (i.e. the brainwashed public).

26
0
RickH
RickH
3 years ago

I’m not sure why this sort of duff data is reported. The ONS ‘infection survey’ has always been dodgy fare, and the ‘R’ rate is a fictional modelling number that pretends to significance.

I know that violin making in C17th Cremona is a bit of a stretch from duff data, but I was just reading the following about the 1630 plague that afflicted the city, and its effects on one family, that happens to be that of the luthiere Nicolo Amati in a short period at the end of October and beginning of December. I quote it as an illustration of what a really virulent infection is about :

“… his father Girolamo, his mother Laura, two of his sisters and his brother-in-law and business partner Vincenzo Tili all died in quick succession.”

OK. Different time – but it gives a vivid example of a real epidemic. And everybody cowers, trembling in the C21st when there is nothing like that sort of mortality with bodies in the streets?

Now that was a crisis rather than a hypochondriac’s faked wet dream!

The only response can be : ‘FFS. Get a life!’

32
0
RW
RW
3 years ago
Reply to  RickH

The Covidians claim this is happening with COVID as well: One of the MPs partaking in the no medical discrimintion debate talked about a girl who had lost all of her family to COVID. The difference is just in a real epidemic, the dead would be piling up in everybody’s neighbourhood and not just in national news, the usual claim being It happened everywhere were none of you personally experienced the opposite!

The people doing COVID-PR are professionals who know what they’re doing.

16
0
TheyLiveAndWeLockdown
TheyLiveAndWeLockdown
3 years ago
Reply to  RW

Is lying to the commons a barrable offence?

Get that MP on Youtube and wring them out to dry for their lies.

10
0
huxleypiggles
huxleypiggles
3 years ago
Reply to  RW

A girl lost all her family?

Very sad.

A family consisting of one other perchance?

7
0
Susan
Susan
3 years ago
Reply to  RickH

Maybe only a real plague will cure the hypochondriacs.

What is the book; it sounds good.

1
0
cyphre
cyphre
3 years ago
Reply to  RickH

Real pandemics don’t need a global marketing campaign….

6
0
RW
RW
3 years ago

This is not worth reading. It’s just the usual junk about injections rising in school children because they magically happen once they’re in school and magically don’t happen when they’re otherwise socialising with their peers and parents, something they certainly did throughout all of the summer holiday.

It’s not infections which are rising but detection of symptom-free infections in healthy children now again forced onto the mandatory testing treadmill. Undetected infection where certainly there all the time. There was just no way to turn them into scary headlines etc.

25
0
mishmash
mishmash
3 years ago

“Over-estimated”

Must be frustrating for you Toby.
Seeing the same patterns repeating, knowing they are pulling numbers out their arses and lying to the public, but having to appease your audience by softening down those hard conspiracy edges.

Last edited 3 years ago by mishmash
18
0
charleyfarley
charleyfarley
3 years ago

Is this good news, or even news?

Good news would be the reversal of all covid measures alongside repeal of all corona legislation, the resignation of the government with all cabinet members barred in future from public life, the immediate removal of SAGE, Ferguson and the Chief Medical Officers et al with loss of pension, just as a start, followed by a criminal investigation into all related matters by a properly independant panel lead by a High Court Judge.

One can but dream.

38
0
RW
RW
3 years ago
Reply to  charleyfarley

A few more medieval things could be nice, too: Eg, putting SAGE members naked into public cages and invite the people to throw whatever they like at them. 🙂

14
0
TheyLiveAndWeLockdown
TheyLiveAndWeLockdown
3 years ago
Reply to  RW

with just masks to cover themselves?

15
0
Hugh
Hugh
3 years ago
Reply to  charleyfarley

Yes, but what would they be replaced with, even if that did happen (obviously rather a big if).

1
0
Lucan Grey
Lucan Grey
3 years ago

“SAGE’s latest projections about Covid hospital admissions were wildly over-pessimistic.”

Well bugger me and call me Susan.

14
0
TheTartanEagle
TheTartanEagle
3 years ago

Infection numbers are bolleaux, as we know.

What is worrying, however, is that in the week of 13th September something like 25% more people died in Scotland than typical for that week, the highest number ever for that calendar week, according to data on the national registers (data from 1974 to 2021).

5
0
kate
kate
3 years ago

https://pathologie-konferenz.de/en/
CAUSE OF DEATH AFTER COVID-19 VACCINATION
UNDECLARED COMPONENTS OF THE COVID-19 VACCINES

3
0
thinkcriticall
thinkcriticall
3 years ago

This is quite an extraordinary Audit Report of ED (Emergency Department) COVID-19 coding:

“NHSUK: Report 11 – Audit of ED COVID-19 Coding

I am hoping group members have found the first two summary posts in the NHSUK series useful. They tell a story of patchy coding of emergency department admissions and in-hospital deaths overshadowed by zealous use of tests that are primarily useful as a means of supporting clinical diagnoses; instead they seem to have replaced sound clinical judgement. I attach the first report to be released to the public that provides some background to this issue.

Some may find it odd to start with report 11 in the series but coding of cases really is the heart of the matter. If COVID cases had been coded and analysed diligently from the outset we wouldn’t necessarily have experienced lockdown, NHS bed loss, loss of healthcare services, economic damage, erosion of rights and all the rest; instead, our healthcare systems would have quietly and professionally dealt with the situation.

I wrote report 11 because things were simply not adding up. In a nutshell COVID wasn’t acting like the terribly deadly plague it has been billed to be, and all features I was expecting like a surge in respiratory failure, hypoxia and disseminated intravascular coagulation simply weren’t showing up in analysis. Certainly there have been plenty of cases that were rather challenging for ICU staff but the clinical population, as a whole, when viewed through a statistical lens didn’t reflect this. After 10 reports and a fair bit of mumbling I decided to take a good look at the clinical coding and wasn’t exactly happy with what I found. Evidence-based medicine must start with sound evidence!” – John Dee

Facebook Group post & PDF document link:
https://t.co/bmqoqA4Q40?amp=1

Please analyse and forward to your MP.

Last edited 3 years ago by thinkcriticall
5
0
RickH
RickH
3 years ago
Reply to  thinkcriticall

“If COVID cases had been coded and analysed diligently from the outset we wouldn’t necessarily have experienced lockdown …. “ [etc]

… but, of course, that would defeat the purpose.

4
0
amanuensis
amanuensis
3 years ago

Is it not possible to include a link to the actual ONS document, rather than the Daily Mails interpretation of it?

4
0
thinkcriticall
thinkcriticall
3 years ago

UK total mortality vaxed v. unvaxed: ” age adjusted mortality rate is currently higher among the vaccinated than the unvaccinated…we can conclude that the ONS’s own data does not support the claims made for vaccine effectiveness/safety. ”

http://probabilityandlaw.blogspot.com/2021/09/all-cause-mortality-rates-in-england.html

2
0
Silke David
Silke David
3 years ago

In Germany the rate of “infections” dropped from over 80 to 61 points in one week. Seems to be the same pattern around the world?

1
0
Susan
Susan
3 years ago

So sick of these fleeting, dubious, meaningless numbers, percentages, rates, and predictions.

2
0
PatrickF
PatrickF
3 years ago

SAGE don’t wildly over-estimate hospital admissions. They make them up according to the needs of the Psy-Ops departments.

8
0
George Morris
George Morris
3 years ago

At the risk of being off subject, would someone hazard a guess at what is happening in Scotland? Scotland has at times had a spike almost three times as high as England’s and while the rate seems to be coming down now, in my area – Moray – it is still ten times what it was for most of the pandemic. This ‘back to school surge’ doesn’t seem to have happened in England; and yet Scotland really isn’t a very different place to England – the summer has been delightful, The wave has not been confined to the Gorbals and the industrial areas of the central belt. AberdeenSHIRE has twice the rate that Aberdeen CITY has. And yet neither my elderly church congregation or my almost equally elderly yacht club have experienced a single serious case that I have heard of. And we are all dutifully wearing masks in shops and in church (and in the yacht club!). This has to be a measurement thing doesn’t it?

2
0
cyphre
cyphre
3 years ago

It’s almost like SAGE’s job is to wildly over predict things to serve an agenda…..

3
0

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