Day: 21 June 2021

Has the Delta Variant Killed Seasonality – or Just Freedom?

The pre-Covid scientific literature indicates there are already four known coronaviruses in circulation, which are – like ’flu – predominantly seasonal in the northern temperate climatic zones, which include Northern Europe and the north part of North America. Although not entirely without exception, the typical pattern – as has been pointed out previously in Lockdown Sceptics – is for coronavirus infections to peak between late autumn and early spring and dwindle away in the summer. Scientific parsimony would – in the absence of evidence to the contrary – lead us to anticipate SARS-CoV-2 would behave in the same way. Indeed, infections in Spring 2020 did follow the typical pattern. Although peaking earlier or later in different places, infections fell to a baseline before picking up again from the autumn – including in countries of Eastern Europe that escaped the first wave altogether. Reported deaths followed a similar pattern. In the autumn and winter of 2020-21 positives and deaths again peaked, with shouldered or distributed peaks in some areas. This is not unusual for seasonal respiratory virus outbreaks as can be seen in the excess deaths reported to EUROMOMO during the 2017-8 ’flu season, for example (small summer peaks in excess deaths are attributed to heatwaves). What would be unexpected, other than in quite exceptional circumstances, would be substantial peaks in ...

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