66431
  • Log in
The Daily Sceptic
No Result
View All Result
  • Articles
  • About
  • Archive
    • ARCHIVE
    • NEWS ROUND-UPS
  • Forum
  • Donate
  • Newsletter
The Daily Sceptic
No Result
View All Result

Transmission of COVID-19 Is Influenced by Temperature, Humidity and UV Radiation, Study Finds

by Noah Carl
21 June 2021 8:12 AM

The issue of COVID-19’s seasonality has been covered extensively on Lockdown Sceptics. Back in February, Glen Bishop noted that a model developed by Imperial College researchers – which predicted there would be an additional 130,000 deaths this summer – assumed that transmission does not vary by season.

In a follow-up article, I reviewed eight separate studies that found evidence for the seasonality of COVID-19. Indeed, it would be rather surprising if COVID-19 wasn’t seasonal given what we know about other human coronaviruses, i.e., that they are – in the words of one recent study – “sharply seasonal”. 

However, doubts have been expressed about whether COVID-19 is in fact a seasonal disease. Such doubts are based on the observation that countries like Chile and South Africa saw epidemics burgeon during their summer months, and that Britain itself is now seeing a rise in cases.

But as the biologist Francois Balloux notes in a recent Twitter thread, the fact that some countries have seen infections rise during the summer is not inconsistent with seasonal factors playing a role in transmission. It just means they aren’t the only factors involved. (One also has to consider viral evolution, population immunity and human behaviour.)

A new study by researchers from Yale and Columbia (which was published in the journal Nature Communications) offers particularly strong evidence for the seasonality of COVID-19. The authors looked at the relationship between seasonal factors and the R number across US counties between March and December of last year.

They ran a statistical model of the R number, with temperature, specific humidity and UV radiation as predictors. The model controlled for a range of other factors, including spatial, demographic and socio-economic variables.

The authors found that each of the three seasonal factors was independently associated with R. They then calculated the fraction of R that was attributable to seasonality, and obtained a value of 17.5%. Interestingly, specific humidity was the most important of the three, contributing 9.4%. 

The authors’ findings indicate that “that cold and dry weather and low levels of UV radiation are moderately associated with increased SARS-CoV-2 transmissibility”. However, they were unable to examine possible differences in seasonality across different variants, leaving this as a topic for future research.

Overall, their study provides some of the best evidence yet for seasonality. And it gives one more reason to be sceptical that the current rise in cases here in Britain portends a major epidemic. 

Tags: seasonalityTransmissionUnited States

Donate

We depend on your donations to keep this site going. Please give what you can.

Donate Today

Comment on this Article

You’ll need to set up an account to comment if you don’t already have one. We ask for a minimum donation of £5 if you'd like to make a comment or post in our Forums.

Sign Up
Previous Post

News Round-Up

Next Post

Fewer Than 1 in 200 Travellers From “Amber List” Countries Are Testing Positive for Covid

Subscribe
Login
Notify of
Please log in to comment

Profanity and abuse will be removed and may lead to a permanent ban.

39 Comments
Oldest
Newest Most Voted
Inline Feedbacks
View all comments

NEWSLETTER

View today’s newsletter

To receive our latest news in the form of a daily email, enter your details here:

DONATE

PODCAST

Nick Dixon and Toby Young Talk About Toby’s Appearance on the 77th Brigade’s Watch List, the Scrubbing of the Internet After the Pfizer Sting and the Trans Insanity Unfolding in Scotland

by Will Jones
31 January 2023
0

LISTED ARTICLES

  • Most Read
  • Most Commented
  • Editors Picks

How the Unvaccinated Got It Right

1 February 2023
by Robin Koerner

FDA Adviser Inadvertently Confirms Pfizer is Doing Gain-of-Function Research

1 February 2023
by Will Jones

How Safe Really is 5G?

1 February 2023
by Gillian Jamieson

An Honest Voice at Last

1 February 2023
by Thorsteinn Siglaugsson

News Round-Up

2 February 2023
by Will Jones

How the Unvaccinated Got It Right

58

How Safe Really is 5G?

61

News Round-Up

29

Why Are Male Prisoners in Scotland Identifying as Women?

17

An Honest Voice at Last

20

The Large Hadron Collider and the War in Ukraine

2 February 2023
by Noah Carl

Could Sturgeon’s Trans Fiasco Be Woke’s Berlin Wall Moment?

2 February 2023
by Nick Dixon

FDA Adviser Inadvertently Confirms Pfizer is Doing Gain-of-Function Research

1 February 2023
by Will Jones

How the Unvaccinated Got It Right

1 February 2023
by Robin Koerner

An Honest Voice at Last

1 February 2023
by Thorsteinn Siglaugsson

POSTS BY DATE

June 2021
M T W T F S S
 123456
78910111213
14151617181920
21222324252627
282930  
« May   Jul »

SOCIAL LINKS

Free Speech Union
  • Home
  • About us
  • Donate
  • Privacy Policy

Facebook

Twitter

Instagram

RSS

Subscribe to our newsletter

© Skeptics Ltd.

No Result
View All Result
  • Articles
  • About
  • Archive
    • ARCHIVE
    • NEWS ROUND-UPS
  • Forum
  • Donate
  • Newsletter

© Skeptics Ltd.

Welcome Back!

Login to your account below

Forgotten Password?

Create New Account!

Please note: To be able to comment on our articles you'll need to be a registered donor

Already have an account?
Please click here to login Log In

Retrieve your password

Please enter your username or email address to reset your password.

Log In
wpDiscuz
You are going to send email to

Move Comment