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New Year, New Lockdown Restrictions

Andy Davey’s cartoon in today’s Telegraph

Appearing on The Andrew Marr Show yesterday, Boris Johnson warned the country that COVID-19 restrictions are “alas, probably about to get tougher”. The Spectator has a summary:

The Andrew Marr Show returned this morning, and with it came an in-depth interview with the Prime Minister. It will surprise no one to hear that the bulk of the interview focused on the coronavirus, and Boris Johnson signalled throughout that the new year could see fresh restrictions being brought into place. He did not go into any detail about what measures could be introduced under a potential “Tier 5”, but it was clear enough that his 5pm Downing Street press conferences were not yet a thing of the past

BJ: It may be that we need to do things in the next few weeks that will be tougher in many parts of the country. I’m fully fully reconciled to that, and I bet the people of this country are fully reconciled to that… Alas, [the tiering system] is probably about to get tougher, but we’ll review it.

Boris said that we need to see if the “extra steps that we’ve all taken in Tier 4 areas are going to work in driving the virus down” and insisted that the Government has got to keep things “under constant review”.

Rather than a national lockdown then the Government’s preference appears to be for a tightening of the Tier system – probably because imposing another national lockdown would require Parliamentary consent. Johnson would not go into any detail on what these tighter restrictions might look like, but the Telegraph appears to have been briefed:

England could be back in lockdown by the middle of this month, Government sources suggested, prompting fears that it will be kept in a straitjacket until at least Easter.

The Telegraph understands that discussions in Government about the return of shielding have already begun, and a further announcement on school closures could come as soon as this week…

Whitehall sources told the Telegraph that discussions are under way about the return of shielding – telling vulnerable people to stay indoors – and whether that could also be extended to people in specific age groups, such as the over-70s.

Last month, the “clinically extremely vulnerable” were told they should stay at home if they live in Tier 4 areas, but the latest discussions could see the return of national shielding measures with a wider group of people told to shield.

Senior Whitehall sources said they expected more parts of the country to be put into Tier 4 which already covers 78% of the population.

Many will agree with Sir Desmond Swayne when he says:

“What more pain do they want to cause us? What are they going to stop us doing now? Close down essential shops and the takeaways? 

“The whole thing is madness. It will be so ridiculous – what difference does it make if you are out in the fresh air for one hour or all day? It won’t make a blind bit of difference. It’s going beyond ridiculous.”

In an entirely predictable intervention, however, Kier Starmer called for new national restrictions to be implemented immediately. The Telegraph has more:

The Labour leader said the virus was “clearly out of control”, as he insisted that it was “no good the Prime Minister hinting that further restrictions are coming into place in a week, or two or three”.

“That delay has been the source of so many problems,” he said.

“So, I say bring in those restrictions now, national restrictions, within the next 24 hours.

“That has to be the first step towards controlling the virus.”

Stop Press: The Daily Mail is reporting that the Government’s ‘Covid-O’ committee, which makes decisions on lockdown restrictions, will meet today to decide on the next steps to take. Expect a Downing Street briefing at 5pm.

Not Going Back to School

Bob Moran’s cartoon in the Telegraph on June 25th 2020

In his conversation with Marr, Boris Johnson stressed that parents of primary school children should send their charges to school today, insisting that the risk is small and that the benefits of education are huge. Unfortunately, amid the warnings about the new strain, the decision to keep some schools closed, and the underlying threat that they might all need to be closed soon anyway, this has proved to be a tough sell. The teaching unions and Labour-controlled local authorities are doing everything in their power to obstruct this plan, as the Daily Mail reports:

Parents are facing chaos over classroom closures as primaries across the country stay shut today despite Boris Johnson insisting “schools are safe”.

The Prime Minister told families yesterday that children should return to school in all areas where they were due to open today and tomorrow.

But as COVID-19 rates soar, teaching unions said that a “snowball effect” was shutting scores of schools despite the official advice to stay open.

Yesterday council leaders in Cumbria, Brighton, Kent, Birmingham and Wolverhampton all formally requested permission for schools in their area to stay shut.

While it waits to hear back from Education Secretary Gavin Williamson, Brighton and Hove City Council has advised all primary heads to shut their schools, apart from for vulnerable children and those of key workers, and to move learning online.

In Southampton the city council warned that some schools “do not have enough staff to reopen safely to all children”, while Slough Borough Council in Berkshire said some primaries would stay closed amid “confusion across the board” caused by the Department for Education.

Councils in Liverpool, Manchester and Newcastle upon Tyne all pledged to support heads who needed to close their schools, while Preston City Council’s leader said primaries should remain closed “until they can reopen safely”.

Norfolk County Council also said it would support heads who needed to keep their schools shut.

The chaos has left thousands of parents facing a scramble to find care for their children.

It has worrying parallels with the first education shutdown in March, which was only announced by the Government after many schools had already closed of their own accord. Secondary school pupils in exam years are already due to return a week later than planned, from January 11th, while other years are scheduled to go back from January 18th.

And all London primaries were ordered to stay shut for the first two weeks of the January term after a U-turn on Friday.

The Government’s list of areas where primaries will stay shut also includes parts of Essex, Kent, East Sussex, Buckinghamshire and Hertfordshire.

Now nearly a third of the country, some 17 million people, are living in areas where primaries have been told to close by the Government, or where councils have said they will back heads who decide to close their gates.

Worth reading in full.

Stop Press: Lord McConnel, the former Labour First Minister of Scotland, has urged the Scottish Government to vaccinate teachers rather than close schools.

Stop Press 2: Kirstie Allsopp was trolled on Twitter for pointing out that primary school children were “at far more danger from journeys in cars, or swimming, or trampolining than Covid”. That’s surely indisputable?

Heartwarming Tale

We got this message from a reader yesterday in response to our story about paediatric wards not being full of children with Covid.

Just a quick anecdote on the number of children in acute care controversy. A relative works in paediatric A&E in a big London hospital. They had a ‘heartwarming’ experience over Christmas and New Year, with a family turning up at the hospital. Both parents went admitted into the Covid ward and were indeed ill with Covid. The children tested positive but were completely fine. However, there was nowhere for them to go so they stayed in the A & E paediatric ward and became special pets over the holiday period, until a parent was well enough to reclaim them. This was no doubt practical and kind, and I don’t suppose it is a widespread occurrence, but would add to the numbers.

Lockdowns Spread Bugs Faster Than Liberty

Shutterstock.com

William M. Briggs, statistician and co-author of The Price of Panic, has an interesting piece on his blog in which he explains that lockdowns are not simply ineffective – they actually increase virus transmission.

Suppose a bug is 100% transmissible. Everybody in contact with somebody infected therefore gets it, and passes it on with certainty to the next person they meet.

A lockdown will spread this bug faster than allowing people to remain at liberty.

Lockdowns are not quarantines in the old-fashioned sense of that term, where infected people were isolated, kept separate in every way from the non-infected. If you think lockdown and hear quarantine your ears are busted. Quarantines can make sense; lockdowns never do.

Lockdowns are merely forced gatherings. People in lockdown are allowed to venture forth from their dwellings to do “essential” activities, like spending money at oligarch-run stores. These stores are collection points, where people are concentrated. Some are allowed to go to jobs, such as supporting oligarch-run stores…

Lockdowns are not quarantines. Lockdowns concentrate people into fewer areas. Lockdowns are only pain.

Lockdowns allow people outside to mingle for a time, then it forces them back inside to mingle with a vengeance.

It’s clear that our 100% transmissible bug will spread much faster when people are forced to spend more time indoors with each other. Once one person gets it, he will spread it to those at his home immediately. If people were at liberty, and therefore more separated, the bug would still spread to everybody, but more slowly (the speed here is relative).

Now suppose the bug only has a 1 in a 1,000 chance of spreading per contact. Low. Lockdowns will still spread it more quickly than liberty. And for the same reason. Lockdowns force people together. The venues they are allowed to venture to are restricted, and therefore concentrate contact, and they force people inside their homes where it’s obvious contact time increases. Lockdowns concentrate contact spaces and times.

Transmission rate, then, has little to do with the efficacy of lockdowns. There is no efficacy of lockdowns preventing transmission, only in controlling where the transmissions will take place.

Worth reading in full.

The Great Reset: How Did a Corporate Boondoggle Become a Conspiracy Theory?

Unsplash

Writing for UnHerd, Gavin Haynes takes a look at “The Great Reset”, the title of both a tedious seminar hosted by the World Economic Forum in June and of a metastasising conspiracy theory.

In June of this year, the World Economic Forum hosted a video seminar called The Great Reset, to promote a book, also called The Great Reset. It was a crushingly tedious time for all concerned. Bookended with the mitherings of Prince Charles, the event mainly involved a panel of worthies, who all had that NGO tan that comes from endlessly staring at discussion documents about third world poverty from a luxurious Alpine apartment, sharing their thoughts on “sustainability”, “green jobs” and “the global south”.

Their Great Reset, as unveiled in their seminar, proposes a generational shifting of the track-lines of our economic development. It calls for de-carbonising, with the help of massive government stimulus; it wants an internationalist approach that clamps down on tax-dodging companies, paid for by new taxes on the wealthy. Lame, perhaps. But on the face of it, hardly sinister.

The stronger thesis of The Great Reset was best stated by the former Vatican ambassador to the US, Archbishop Carlo Vagano, who in November of this year wrote an open letter to President Trump: “Mr. President, I imagine that you are already aware that in some countries the Great Reset will be activated between the end of this year and the first trimester of 2021. For this purpose, further lockdowns are planned, which will be officially justified by a supposed second and third wave of the pandemic. You are well aware of the means that have been deployed to sow panic and legitimize draconian limitations on individual liberties, artfully provoking a world-wide economic crisis. In the intentions of its architects, this crisis will serve to make the recourse of nations to the Great Reset irreversible, thereby giving the final blow to a world whose existence and very memory they want to completely cancel.“

This is the Great Reset as it now exists within the conspiracy world: the premise that life as we knew it is being flattened so as to be re-forged into the bugman’s paradise – with special emphasis on COVID-19 being essentially fake, or at least wildly overstated.

Clearly, these two Great Resets – the lame version and the conspiracy version – are very different propositions. Yet there is also a sense in which they talk to each other, feed off each other. Above all, each provides an excellent strawman for the opposing team to attack.

The Great Reset, says Haynes, was just too good a phrase not to be taken up by conspiracy theorists.

Of course, Klaus Schwab’s annual talking shop is hardly the only organisation vying to turn the crisis towards their agenda. The problem, it seems, was that they were only supposed to blow the bloody doors off; the title was just too good, too on-the-nose, to be ignored. The Great Reset was accidental over-sell, but only in the way that lighting [sic] striking the highest conductive point is “accidental”. By November, when the phrase really took off, societal disquiet was already rumbling, looking for an obvious point-of-contact with reality. Suddenly, a vague unease had a name.

But at the same time, both sides also refuse to concede that the term has multiple meanings. For the WEF and its allies, any opposition to their policies must therefore come from wackos. 

On the other side of the fence, those who deal in the fantasies can deploy their own motte and bailey. They point to the WEF’s actual plan as a safe harbour in reality – a stout Christmas tree of genuine fact, on which they can then hang their madder baubles. 

Between them lies the real argument, unloved and untackled. The crisis has already put down several waymarkers towards a world few of us signed up for: from the steamrollering of mom-’n’-pops in favour of Amazon, to the truly cashless society, to credit scores based on your Google history to the oft-floated “vaccine passport”. The bugman is always figurative: a kind of platonic ideal pointing towards the dangers of a technocratic 2020s. To take it literally is always to miss the point.

The WEF case rests precisely on explaining why we won’t end up in that future. But tackling the unease fuelling The Great Reset’s wide spectrum of critics would also mean addressing the sentiment underlying its opposition: that however buttery the buzzwords, human beings are rightly suspicious of those who make abstruse high-level plans for their ‘welfare’. Especially if they’re designed by pointy-heads from Davos with no skin in the game — whether they come bearing a thought, a plan, a scheme, or an outright conspiracy.

Worth reading in full.

Stop Press: Several readers have sent us an article that appeared in Principia Scientific pointing out the discrepancy between official UK Government data about how many people have died of COVID-19 and the data for statutory notifications of infectious diseases (NOIDS) in England and Wales. According to PHE, GPs are supposed to notify the local authority when one of their patients dies of a notifiable disease, yet only 13,844 deaths from COVID-19 have been recorded using this method in England and Wales. According to Principia Sceintific, this “shows beyond any reasonable doubt that the pandemic narrative peddled for the last nine months by politicians (in cahoots with the mainstream media) is gross misrepresentation and exaggeration”.

Not so fast. A bit of sleuthing (emailing some GPs) reveals a couple of reasons why GPs wouldn’t report the death of one of their patients from COVID-19 using this clinical reporting system.

  • They aren’t aware a patient of theirs has died of COVID-19 because said patient has been admitted to hospital via A&E.
  • All lab results are sent to PHE and a note is then inserted into the patient’s notes indicating that as PHE has already been notified a NOID is not required. A clinician has a legal duty to submit a NOID if they have clinical evidence of a notifiable disease, except if PHE has already been notified.

One GP responded thus:

It’s an extremely antiquated system. Useless in my view and should been abandoned years ago. The only thing you can get from it is trends over long periods, although that makes the massive assumption that reporting behaviour doesn’t change. I haven’t reported any Covid cases. In fact, we’re told we don’t have to. It’s a useless piece of data and should be ignored!

Response to Dr David McGrogan’s Article on Why Our Points aren’t Landing

Emotion trumps reason – and it was ever thus

Regular Lockdown Sceptics contributor Guy de la Bédoyère has written a response to yesterday’s article by Dr David MrGrogan.

David McGrogan’s judgement about the failed strategy of lockdown sceptics and the failure to address emotion is absolutely correct – for the most part, but he’s missed something out. What I’m most surprised by is that he’s surprised. I’ve been an active supporter of this website from the start, but I will freely admit that from the outset I thought we were probably making a futile gesture – sorry Toby – though it was one worth making, nonetheless.

There is nothing new or special about the phenomenon David describes. We don’t live in an age that is any more emotional than any other time. The French historian and political theorist Georges Sorel (1847–1922) was quite convinced that emotion and myth were the driving forces behind human action. He said a man “must have in himself some source of conviction which must dominate his whole consciousness, and act before the calculations of reflection have to enter his mind”.

Sorel added: “We do nothing great without the help of warmly-coloured and clearly defended images, which absorb the whole of our attention”.

In short, human beings are primarily driven by the forces of irrationalism and emotion. They always have been, from the ancient Egyptians exulting in the theatre of pharaonic rituals to the visceral response felt by most Britons of a certain age when they hear the Merlin engine of a Spitfire thundering overhead.

Both experiences were, and still are, defined by myth and the warm glow of righteous belonging.

Strikes and demonstrations, whatever their beef, are about breaking out of the humdrum everyday tedium, the chance to stand beside a brazier warmed by the fire and righteous zeal, or hurl abuse at a policeman, or topple a statue.

Brexit was fought with emotions, on both sides, and defined by myths. Rational arguments, whatever form they might have taken, had and still have no currency. Leave or Remain – both were myths but Leave got the emotion right.

So it has been with Covid. The last year has been a convulsion of triggered emotions, the chance to participate in a mass ritual of self-flagellating righteousness and zealous enthusiasm, the opportunity to share in the endless mythologizing of heroes, villains, and victims. To cheer on the crusading saints in the NHS, to be seen to suffer oneself and do without, to share in the pain, to exult in the excitement of action and participation in an epic tale of Homeric intensity.

It is exactly the same for Piers Corbyn and his own counter-army of anti-lockdown disciples. Their marches and protests, difficult though it might be to believe, serve the same purpose for the participants. Exciting days on the streets of London, tussles with the police, the endorsement of a fine and arrest. The chance to be hero – just for one day.

Sorel understood that the collective emotions of the masses were the key to action. It is remarkable how successful a cabal of our Government ministers and scientists have been in harnessing that force, though in an unprecedented way. Or is it?

In truth, the Covid nightmare has only revealed to us that we are as human beings have always been since time immemorial – driven by myth, inspired by action, and immune to rational thought. Data has been deliberately massaged, manipulated, selectively disseminated to have an emotional impact. Journalists in whole legions have been caught up in an endless cycle of vicarious participation in the cavalcade of emotion.

I’m not sure that talking about all the devastating consequences of lockdowns will have the effect David would like it to have, regardless of how many heartstrings are tugged in the process. The human tragedy is all too real but in an extraordinary way it’s only served to amplify the moral and heroic intensity of being in the middle of a disaster. Being a victim of the fallout can be for some the validation of personal sacrifice, membership, and an endorsement.

Whether a person is hiding at home, working in a hospital and cursing the public, or protesting about wearing a mask, each is – perhaps for the first time in their lives – at last in possession of feeling truly alive, the peaceful mediocrity of the past set to one side in favour of living dangerously.

The only difference about our era is the desperate need to present every position as rational, considered, and substantiated. Hence the mantra of one camp, ‘we’re following the science’. The anti-lockdown marchers are equally convinced by the rationale behind their actions.

Nothing could sum the idea up better than this comment by a French scholar called Pierre Rouanet almost 60 years ago:

The morals of heroism are based on a blind belief in the superior ethical worth of a cause and in the almost religious loyalty elicited by the latter. When reason intervenes, heroism becomes a calculation of alternatives rather than an unqualified devotion to a transcending reality.

That’s precisely why there is no transcending reality to Covid any longer, and maybe there never was. While the disease pervades every corner of our society remorselessly and unilaterally, forever beyond our control, we are each acting out parts in what has become the great emotional drama of our era, and which will in time become as mythologized as Brexit, the Battle of Britain, the Great Plague of 1665, and even the Trojan War – if it hasn’t already.

I’m afraid our efforts to be a rational voice in the hurricane were always going to be a struggle, but at least we have been heroes of a sort – haven’t we?

Poetry Corner

Author and poet Jonny Peppiatt suffered a bout of depression this year, like so many other people. He decided to write a short poem about its ugliest manifestation: suicidal ideation.

He says: “I was going to say that I hope you like it, but really all I hope for is that, should you choose to share it, it finds one person who is struggling and gives them strength.”

It waits for me

It waits for me, ’round the corner;
It waits for me to be alone;
It waits for me, when we part ways;
It waits for me, it’s there, I know.

I’ve faced it down from time to time,
I beat it once, twice, time again,
But it haunts me, still, ev’ry day,
And it’s just a question of when.

When will I face this beast of mine?
When will it be at that corner
I turn; at that very next step?
When will it be all I have left?

When will it take me in its arms?
Embrace me, hold me, whisper to me
What I’d told myself already:
That tomorrow need not be.

It waits to be my only friend
By my side; all else shut inside,
Shut away, away from me, away
From seeing what might be my end.

It waits for me to be alone.
And it knows it won’t need to wait
Much longer to truly have me
To itself.

But as I breathe, I know I must
Fight with all I am to conquer
This beast of mine, and his, and hers.
I’m not alone, I’m not deterred.

I’ll wait for it, I’ll face it down.
I’ll wait for it, I’m not alone.
I’ll wait for it, I’ll stand and fight.
I’ll wait for it, I’ll win, I know.

Round-up

Theme Tunes Suggested by Readers

Three today: “Think About The Children” by Lucky Dube, “January Hymn” by The Decembrists and “Iron Hand” by Dire Straits

Love in the Time of Covid

We have created some Lockdown Sceptics Forums, including a dating forum called “Love in a Covid Climate” that has attracted a bit of attention. We have a team of moderators in place to remove spam and deal with the trolls, but sometimes it takes a little while so please bear with us. You have to register to use the Forums as well as post comments below the line, but that should just be a one-time thing. Any problems, email the Lockdown Sceptics webmaster Ian Rons here.

Sharing Stories

Some of you have asked how to link to particular stories on Lockdown Sceptics so you can share it. To do that, click on the headline of a particular story and a link symbol will appear on the right-hand side of the headline. Click on the link and the URL of your page will switch to the URL of that particular story. You can then copy that URL and either email it to your friends or post it on social media. Please do share the stories.

Social Media Accounts

You can follow Lockdown Sceptics on our social media accounts which are updated throughout the day. To follow us on Facebook, click here; to follow us on Twitter, click here; to follow us on Instagram, click here; to follow us on Parler, click here; and to follow us on MeWe, click here.

Woke Gobbledegook

We’ve decided to create a permanent slot down here for woke gobbledegook. Today, we bring you the news that The Merchant of Venice is a bit too much for Michael Morpurgo’s new book Tales from Shakespeare. The Sunday Times has the story.

Sir Michael Morpurgo is refusing to include The Merchant of Venice in a new children’s book based on Shakespeare’s plays because of its “antisemitic” and “offensive” attitudes.

Morpurgo, 77, who was knighted in 2018 for his services to literature and charity, admits his 21st-century sensibilities also grappled with male “bullying” towards women in The Taming of the Shrew, and the “little Englander” prejudices against the French in Henry V.

The War Horse author is retelling and modernising the stories of 10 Shakespeare plays for children aged from six to 18 in a book called Tales from Shakespeare, which will be published next year. His aim is to ensure that a generation of youngsters “switched off” Shakespeare, because they are drilled and crammed on compulsory texts for exams, grow up to love his stories.

The list of plays includes staples of the school syllabus such as Romeo and Juliet, A Midsummer Night’s Dream, King Lear, The Taming of the Shrew and Macbeth. But Morpurgo said that when he reread Shakespeare’s plays last year he decided he could not “honestly” retell the story of The Merchant of Venice, even though the play appears on A-level syllabuses.

“I did not tackle Shylock. I avoided [the play] because it worried me too much if I am honest about it… there are assumptions right the way through about what it is to be a Jew, and how Jews are thought of, which are so important for our society that, for me, it was best not to go there,” he explained.

“The play can be antisemitic… I did feel this was Shakespeare’s play and I could not tell it honestly. It would be offensive.”

Morpurgo’s squeamishness about Shakespeare is not unique. His Tales from Shakespeare is intended as a modern version of Charles and Mary Lamb’s Tales from Shakespeare (1807), which he said “children used to grow up with” before they were old enough to appreciate Shakespeare in the original.

The Lambs rewrote the works for children, leaving out the bawdy and sexual aspects, among other things.

Thomas Bowdler also edited the plays in 1807 as The Family Shakespeare, to make them acceptable for women and children. It is from his acts of excision that we get the verb “bowdlerise”.

Chris McGovern, chairman of the Campaign for Real Education, said: “This is the dead hand of political correctness. It is cowardly not to face up to great literature. Of course there is going to be plenty to be offended by in Shakespeare, as well as in the Bible and the Quran. Children do not want to be protected all the time against great literature.”

At least if children discover that what they’ve been given is censored it might just encourage them to reach for the unexpurgated originals.

Worth reading in full.

Stop Press: West Midlands Police are recruiting an Assistant Director Fairness and Belonging and offer a salary of £74,340. How much does the Director get paid? The job description reads as if it came straight out of W1A:

Assistant Director Fairness and Belonging

Are you a forward thinking, creative individual looking to achieve ambitious outcomes? Do you have demonstrable ability to lead, develop and deliver a first class diversity and inclusion function?

We are looking to recruit a new Assistant Director, Fairness and Belonging to lead the implementation of the WMP Fairness and Belonging agenda, strategy and plan which underpins delivery of our workforce vision and values, and our “This Work Matters” strategy.

You’ll support and oversee improved inclusive culture throughout the workplace – encouraging the integration of initiatives in the force. The role will also see you managing all inclusion issues relating to operational force activity, as our recognised expert in this field. You’ll also lead and develop your people which includes a team of Diversity & Inclusion practitioners and the Fairness in Policing team, but your influence will be felt across the force.

Get your application in here.

“Mask Exempt” Lanyards

We’ve created a one-stop shop down here for people who want to buy (or make) a “Mask Exempt” lanyard/card. You can print out and laminate a fairly standard one for free here and it has the advantage of not explicitly claiming you have a disability. But if you have no qualms about that (or you are disabled), you can buy a lanyard from Amazon saying you do have a disability/medical exemption here (takes a while to arrive). The Government has instructions on how to download an official “Mask Exempt” notice to put on your phone here. You can get a “Hidden Disability” tag from ebay here and an “exempt” card with lanyard for just £1.99 from Etsy here. And, finally, if you feel obliged to wear a mask but want to signal your disapproval of having to do so, you can get a “sexy world” mask with the Swedish flag on it here.

Don’t forget to sign the petition on the UK Government’s petitions website calling for an end to mandatory face masks in shops here.

A reader has started a website that contains some useful guidance about how you can claim legal exemption. Another reader has created an Android app which displays “I am exempt from wearing a face mask” on your phone. Only 99p, and he’s even said he’ll donate half the money to Lockdown Sceptics, so everyone wins.

If you’re a shop owner and you want to let your customers know you will not be insisting on face masks or asking them what their reasons for exemption are, you can download a friendly sign to stick in your window here.

And here’s an excellent piece about the ineffectiveness of masks by a Roger W. Koops, who has a doctorate in organic chemistry. See also the Swiss Doctor’s thorough review of the scientific evidence here.

The Great Barrington Declaration

Professor Martin Kulldorff, Professor Sunetra Gupta and Professor Jay Bhattacharya

The Great Barrington Declaration, a petition started by Professor Martin Kulldorff, Professor Sunetra Gupta and Professor Jay Bhattacharya calling for a strategy of “Focused Protection” (protect the elderly and the vulnerable and let everyone else get on with life), was launched in October and the lockdown zealots have been doing their best to discredit it ever since. If you googled it a week after launch, the top hits were three smear pieces from the Guardian, including: “Herd immunity letter signed by fake experts including ‘Dr Johnny Bananas’.” (Freddie Sayers at UnHerd warned us about this the day before it appeared.) On the bright side, Google UK has stopped shadow banning it, so the actual Declaration now tops the search results – and Toby’s Spectator piece about the attempt to suppress it is among the top hits – although discussion of it has been censored by Reddit. The reason the zealots hate it, of course, is that it gives the lie to their claim that “the science” only supports their strategy. These three scientists are every bit as eminent – more eminent – than the pro-lockdown fanatics so expect no let up in the attacks. (Wikipedia has also done a smear job.)

You can find it here. Please sign it. Now over three quarters of a million signatures.

Update: The authors of the GBD have expanded the FAQs to deal with some of the arguments and smears that have been made against their proposal. Worth reading in full.

Update 2: Many of the signatories of the Great Barrington Declaration are involved with new UK anti-lockdown campaign Recovery. Find out more and join here.

Update 3: You can watch Sunetra Gupta set out the case for “Focused Protection” here and Jay Bhattacharya make it here.

Update 4: The three GBD authors plus Prof Carl Heneghan of CEBM have launched a new website collateralglobal.org, “a global repository for research into the collateral effects of the COVID-19 lockdown measures”. Follow Collateral Global on Twitter here. Sign up to the newsletter here.

Stop Press: The Guardian has run a vindictive, score-settling piece entitled: “Now the Swedish model has failed, it’s time to ask who was pushing it.” (It didn’t fail, obviously.) Cue a repeat of the smear that the GDB is a dangerous, libertarian project funded by the Koch Brothers. The author is billed as the “investigations editor” of openDemocracy. Let’s hope his other “investigations” have a little more substance to them.

Judicial Reviews Against the Government

There are now so many legal cases being brought against the Government and its ministers we thought we’d include them all in one place down here.

The Simon Dolan case has now reached the end of the road. But the cause has been taken up by PCR Claims. Check out their website here.

The current lead case is the Robin Tilbrook case which challenges whether the Lockdown Regulations are constitutional. You can read about that and contribute here.

Then there’s John’s Campaign which is focused specifically on care homes. Find out more about that here.

There’s the GoodLawProject and Runnymede Trust’s Judicial Review of the Government’s award of lucrative PPE contracts to various private companies. You can find out more about that here and contribute to the crowdfunder here.

And last but not least there was the Free Speech Union‘s challenge to Ofcom over its ‘coronavirus guidance’. A High Court judge refused permission for the FSU’s judicial review on December 9th and the FSU has decided not to appeal the decision because Ofcom has conceded most of the points it was making. Check here for details.

Samaritans

If you are struggling to cope, please call Samaritans for free on 116 123 (UK and ROI), email [email protected] or visit the Samaritans website to find details of your nearest branch. Samaritans is available round the clock, every single day of the year, providing a safe place for anyone struggling to cope, whoever they are, however they feel, whatever life has done to them.

Shameless Begging Bit

Thanks as always to those of you who made a donation in the past 24 hours to pay for the upkeep of this site. Doing these daily updates is hard work (although we have help from lots of people, mainly in the form of readers sending us stories and links). If you feel like donating, please click here. And if you want to flag up any stories or links we should include in future updates, email us here. (Don’t assume we’ll pick them up in the comments.)

And Finally…

Watch Triggernometry‘s latest episode, a discussion with comedian, satirist and Free Speech Union Advisory Council member Dr Andrew Doyle. Together with presenters Konstantin Kisin and Francis Foster (also members of the FSU Advisory Council), he takes a look back at 2020 – a year in which all the worst fears of free speech defenders were realised.

Comments

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2.2K Comments
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Sarigan
Sarigan
5 years ago

**

Hugh
Hugh
5 years ago
Reply to  Sarigan

I can’t even remember the difference between 2 star and 4 star

TheClone
TheClone
5 years ago

Destroy the economy, cripple the education, bankrupt the country!

Bella Donna
Bella Donna
5 years ago

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Eq5YmpZXAAAj5Hd?format=jpg&name=medium

Just shows how MSM takes facts and twists them to make a headline.

Bella Donna
Bella Donna
5 years ago

3 am and I’m fantasizing about Bozo’s head being pulverised by a hammer. How can I be expected to sleep when I’m that angry?

Gary
Gary
5 years ago

Orwell never came close…

Nobody2021
Nobody2021
5 years ago

It’s amusing to think that once this is all over there will be two distinct groups baying for government blood.

One will demand justification for all the measures put in place.

The other will demand justification for not putting measures in place sooner.

Bartleby
Bartleby
5 years ago

I somewhat agree, but I don’t think the pro-lockdown approach has any such moral or righteous cause at the core but is more that a great many people aren’t at all put out by the lockdown and find that it rather suits their agenda.

If you were one of the many millions of people who commuted by bus, train or car you’ve saved anything from several hundreds of pounds of month and a huge amount of time by not being forced to go to an office if you can now work from home.

If you’re one of the many millions of people who have been furloughed from a job you didn’t enjoy – again you might well find yourself thinking this is free money for doing nothing and you’re not really expected to look for a job, the nanny state is providing.

If you’re one of the 13M elderly and/or vulnerable, it might well be that you’re frightened and scared and so lockdown has your support. Of course many older people and vulnerable people do not support lockdown, but given the fear propaganda, I’d wager that the majority of those over 65 and clinically vulnerable certainly do.

If you’re one… Read more »

captainbeefheart
captainbeefheart
5 years ago

Looks like standing around in the cold drinking is still allowed I think.

Maybe ban alcohol for 357 months to stop people doing this?

In other news, looks like brand new tube is down again (it is here at least)

Basics
Basics
5 years ago

“Scottish golf courses to stay open during new lockdown

“Golf clubs in Scotland are being allowed to remain open during the new full lockdown announced by First Minister Nicola Sturgeon.

“But, in line with the restrictions aimed at combating the new Covid-19 variant, play will be restricted to one and two-balls on a local basis.

“It had been feared that clubs would be forced to close under the new lockdown, as had been the case when that step was taken at the start of the pandemic in March.”

https://www.scotsman.com/sport/golf/scottish-golf-courses-stay-open-during-new-lockdown-3084860

And in case you missed them here are the first words from the Scottish Government’s GUIDANCE/Law…

Guidance on new stay at home regulations coming into effect on 5 January 2021.

Stay at Home
To minimise the risk of spreading the virus, you must stay at home as much as possible. By law, in a level 4 area, you can only leave your home (or garden) for an essential purpose.

_

It’s tiring supposing to believe there’s a plague on with such sniveling mixed messages.

I’m to stay at home while £60k a year members of Muirfield can take part in their hobby. If you can afford a Golf Club membership… Read more »

Nobody2021
Nobody2021
5 years ago
Reply to  Basics

First we have somebody addressing Congress with Amen and Awomen.

Now we have the First Minister referring to one and two-balls but omitting no balls.

Scandalous.

Basics
Basics
5 years ago
Reply to  Nobody2021

Very good!

wendyk
wendyk
5 years ago
Reply to  Nobody2021

Remember Amen Corner and ‘Bend Me, Shake Me’?

Nobody2021
Nobody2021
5 years ago
Reply to  wendyk

Yes they were always trying to sell ice cream to me at the cinema in the 80s.

wendyk
wendyk
5 years ago

Email from relative in E Sussex: 2 self employed people known to her are now facing bankruptcy.

One does gardening work for her neighbours and has recently lost a contract cutting grass for care homes, the other is her hairdresser.

No furlough, fixed costs, unable to repay government loans, no work, no hope.

Earth to the well paid master minds in charge of this growing disaster: will you take a pay cut to signal your support and to acknowledge that the buck stops with you?

Will you cancel your expenses claims to show solidarity with the crushed, despairing and redundant?

When will you come to your collective senses?

Mark
Mark
5 years ago
Reply to  wendyk

But do they, and does your relative, understand that the destruction of those livelihoods is not “by covid” but “by the panic response to covid”? That’s the key here, and it’s extremely hard to get across to a lot of people.

wendyk
wendyk
5 years ago
Reply to  Mark

Yes Mark, they do, especially my well educated relative, but no one is listening.

Yesterday, once again, I made the point that cancer patients are paying the price, that the visitors to our small seaside town are desperate for fresh air and a change of scene, that local businesses will not survive the latest Sturgeon diktats, that people are in despair.

All this to two zealots, one of whom recently pulled up her scarf to cover her face,as she’d forgotten her mask!

Both looked pensive, but are still fixed in the stay safe, stop the spread, listen to Nicola position.

Nobody2021
Nobody2021
5 years ago

Funny from Hugh Osmond:

Hugh Osmond
@hughosmond
In the next war, innocent civilians will be sent into battle with no weapons or armour in order to protect the army from being overwhelmed.

https://twitter.com/hughosmond/status/1346212027413442566

bebophaircut
bebophaircut
5 years ago

CBS ’60 Minutes’ headline last night asked ‘Can social media stop the hate?’

Nobody2021
Nobody2021
5 years ago
Reply to  bebophaircut

Social media is the hate. I’ve always been thankful that I can’t read minds and have to put up with the inane BS that most people think 24/7.

Then social media was created and people started posting their thoughts 24/7…

Basics
Basics
5 years ago

Hundreds of Israelis get infected with Covid-19 after receiving Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine – reports

https://www.rt.com/news/511332-israel-vaccination-coronavirus-pfizer/

“Since vaccinations kicked off on December 20, at least four people in Israel died shortly after getting the jab, Kan public broadcaster reported. However, the Health Ministry said that three fatalities were unrelated to the vaccine, with the fourth case of an 88-year-old man with preexisting conditions currently being investigated.”

_

“In a PR stunt gone wrong, the millionth recipient of the Covid-19 vaccine in Israel, who got his jab in front of PM Benjamin Netanyahu, was revealed to be a former criminal who did time for stabbing a man to death.”

https://www.rt.com/news/511430-israel-vaccine-netanyahu-convict/

Basics
Basics
5 years ago
Reply to  Basics

And you know this because?

Basics
Basics
5 years ago
Reply to  Basics

https://nypost.com/2020/12/29/israeli-man-dies-of-heart-attack-after-getting-covid-vaccine/

New York post there not Russian therefore not lie because a guy on internet says so.

swedenborg
swedenborg
5 years ago
Reply to  Basics

This has been reported in Israel media and is not fake news.Reporting about C-19 in RT,what I have read,seem superior to BBC.They have one UK science reporter writing very good articles abut C-19.But we shall always take RT with a grain of salt and two grains for BBC

Basics
Basics
5 years ago
Reply to  swedenborg

Precisely Swedenborg. Using RT and at time BBC can reveal a spin and an agenda at work. Equally what both these outlets and other outlets DON’T cover reveals an awful lot too.

These are organisations presenting you with what they want you to feel is the news. It is entirely irrelevant to my life to know what RT or the BBC want to tell me. Why they want to tell me something is much more important.

Jody
Jody
5 years ago

I watched Channel 4 News tonight, through a VPN, from here in France, and it was made explicitly clear, in a way I have not seen before, that it is the British government’s intention to vaccinate the entire adult population of the country as soon as it possibly can (presumably kids will be done after that).
What do people think will be the consequences of a person refusing the jab? No access to shops and public services, or something worse? I know this is a question that is considered regularly here, but I think we have to look at it with renewed urgency, and start to make serious plans. The government isn’t messing about with this.

Nobody2021
Nobody2021
5 years ago
Reply to  Jody

I hold faith that there are still some sensible heads in SAGE who realise vaccinating the entire population is likely unnecessary and a waste of time and resources.

If the vaccine(s) work as expected and mortality is reduced, once the most vulnerable are protected there really is no real need to force everyone else to have it.

The hardest part may be reversing the conditioning of people who currently believe the only way out is total eradication of the virus. I say if/once it’s brought to the same threat level as flu there is no reason why things couldn’t be pretty much the way they were before.

Jody
Jody
5 years ago
Reply to  Nobody2021

I hope you’re right about SAGE, but I have my doubts.

Nobody2021
Nobody2021
5 years ago
Reply to  Jody

Robert Dingwall is a member of SAGE. He’s not the only one I’ve seen with what I would deem sensible views.

Waiting for zero Covid would be a foolish error

https://digitaleditions.telegraph.co.uk/data/466/reader/reader.html?#!preferred/0/package/466/pub/466/page/72/article/119046

Esther McVey tweeted the above article to generate debate.

Esther McVey
@EstherMcVey1

U.K. needs to confront ‘The challenge that faces us is to decide – are we going to try to pursue the elimination of Covid-19 regardless of the costs or decide on a tolerable level of deaths (like we do with the flu) in order to return to a normal life?’

https://twitter.com/EstherMcVey1/status/1345446981062316033

Richard O
Richard O
5 years ago
Reply to  Jody

I think the government is hoping that the private sector will bail them out of having to legislate for mandating the vaccine. Exclusion from public services that the state controls are a given (no access to public transport, health care etc.). By encouraging a climate of terror, the list of organisations that will require (presumably digital) proof of vaccination either to work at or purchase from will become large enough to ensure total social exclusion. If uptake is still low, principally due to mounting severe adverse reactions, then legislation will surely be used.

We definitely need to prepare our legal position on this, both individually and collectively. I have already made backup financial plans in the likely event that I will lose my job over this (and be subsequently unemployable).

Jody
Jody
5 years ago
Reply to  Richard O

Why do you think they are so obsessed with these vaccines? What’s the agenda? Do they just want mass-compliance for its own sake, or to use the vaccines as a Trojan horse for enforcing digital IDs, or is it something else?
I’m still trying to get a handle on it.

Richard O
Richard O
5 years ago
Reply to  Jody

I think you’re in the right ballpark with the digital IDs. Ultimately it boils down to our old friends power and greed.

Jody
Jody
5 years ago
Reply to  Richard O

Understood.

Cheshirecatslave
Cheshirecatslave
5 years ago
Reply to  Jody

I think lots of them are heavily invested in the vaccine companies. Also they want to appear to have saved us all.

String
String
5 years ago
Reply to  Jody

This lady appears to know exactly what she’s talking about. Her opinion – the vaxxes enable a literal digital ID. alongside the digital currencies (note the Chancellor’s announcement some weeks back, regarding Stable Coin).
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mNXICpo0KH8

Jody
Jody
5 years ago
Reply to  String

Thanks!

Jo Dominich
Jo Dominich
5 years ago
Reply to  Jody

Follow the money. Valance has personally invested £600000 in this and is set to become a multi millionaire. I dare say it is the same for Johnson Wancock’s etc al. Power and money. The two most powerful aphrodisiacs in politics

Nick Rose
Nick Rose
5 years ago
Reply to  Richard O

Not a given I’m afraid. They’ll be bogged down in court cases for decades to come.

Richard O
Richard O
5 years ago
Reply to  Nick Rose

I sincerely hope you are right, but I can no longer trust that the legal system will come to our aid.

Ovis
Ovis
5 years ago
Reply to  Richard O

I agree. The rule of law is dead in the land of Covid.

Jo Dominich
Jo Dominich
5 years ago
Reply to  Nick Rose

And how!

Nick Rose
Nick Rose
5 years ago
Reply to  Jody

It will be against what Parliament agreed only two weeks ago. Casus belli.

Jo Dominich
Jo Dominich
5 years ago
Reply to  Jody

We need concerted legal action in a large group.

Bella Donna
Bella Donna
5 years ago
Reply to  Jody

I’m not having it. No one should be coerced into taking something they feel will harm them.

John P
John P
5 years ago

Toby Young and James Delingpole had another interesting, but tense discussion on their London Calling podcast this evening.

As some may know James is eagerly pushing the Great Reset malarkey, while Toby is resistant to it.

I found myself sitting in between them a little today though. While I don’t agree with James about the Great Reset, I similarly do not agree with Toby that the “mutant strain” is real and is more transmissible.

It’s certainly a device to manipulate people into compliance with the latest set of restrictions.

Toby has had a really nasty death threat though, so I think he needs a bit of support and consideration from fellow sceptics at this time.

Toby is one of our finest journalists and I think it is worth remembering that this site would not exist had he not had the foresight to begin it.

Toby is a great man in his own quite understated and modest way.

Richard O
Richard O
5 years ago
Reply to  John P

Really upset to hear about the death threat on Toby. I guess this is the extremely ugly reality of where we are. Pursuing the truth and questioning authority is becoming physically dangerous. All the more reason to press forward with greater energy than ever.

We owe Toby a huge debt of gratitude for creating this website. I for one need to put my money where my mouth is and provide some financial (as well as moral) support).

Nick Rose
Nick Rose
5 years ago
Reply to  Richard O

I agree with you on this (death threat and need to push on, how you spend your money is up to you).

Mark
Mark
5 years ago
Reply to  John P

Yes, when I wrote my (wholly idealistic, obviously) list of candidates for the House of Lords a week or two ago, Toby was on it, because of his sterling work creating centres of resistance in two absolutely key areas in our society: Lockdown Sceptics and the Free Speech Union. His recognition of the “woke” social disorder also deserves respect.

I don’t agree with him about everything obviously, but he’s exactly the kind of person that would make the Lords worthwhile.

Jody
Jody
5 years ago
Reply to  John P

I shouldn’t imagine it’s an exaggeration to say that this website has saved lives.

Basics
Basics
5 years ago

NHS as normal with their usual unbelieveable but true winter campaign to keep hospitals functioning by their campaign to get people walking like a penguin.

Yes, this is public health.

https://www.scotsman.com/health/scots-urged-walk-penguin-hospitals-struggle-cope-falls-ice-3084994

Plays neatly into the covid narrative.

Nobody2021
Nobody2021
5 years ago
Reply to  Basics

Wonder how many people are not as steady on their feet now for lack of going out in the last 10 odd months.

Basics
Basics
5 years ago
Reply to  Nobody2021

Fine point. I know two people in that camp.

Two-Six
Two-Six
5 years ago
Reply to  Nobody2021

I know a few too…lots in fact, oldies that haven’t done much at all for nearly a whole year. The already unfit and weak and now SUPER unfit and SUPER weak, their poor old joints are now SUPER stiff….

Good job PHE, you bunch of bastards.

swedenborg
swedenborg
5 years ago

3 people are dead in Iceland after having received Pfizer vaccine injection.

“Three patients with underlying diseases died in Iceland after being vaccinated against the corona virus last week. However, it is not possible to confirm that the death was related to the vaccination. This was stated in the case of Rúna Hauksdóttir, director of the Icelandic Medicines Agency, in the episode Reykjavík this afternoon on Bylgjan.
Dr. Alma Möller mentioned that this morning the Icelandic Medicines Agency had received seven reports of side effects after the first vaccination of the Pfizer vaccine, which began in Iceland on 29 December. One of these was a “potentially serious” report, but the causal link was not known due to the underlying diseases.”
https://www.visir.is/g/20212056794d/tilkynnt-um-thrju-daudsfoll-i-kjolfar-bolusetningar
 
The first person in Iceland was vaccinated on the 29th of December.
It is interesting that in almost a whole year, since the virus was first detected, 29 people have died and been registered as covid deaths, and now after a small group of people have been vaccinated, 3 are dead.
https://www.covid.is/data

Basics
Basics
5 years ago
Reply to  swedenborg

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9111311/Portuguese-health-worker-41-dies-two-days-getting-Pfizer-covid-vaccine.html

Portuguese health worker, 41, dies two days after getting the Pfizer covid vaccine as her father says he ‘wants answers’

OKUK
OKUK
5 years ago
Reply to  swedenborg

Hate to crow – not – but just as I predicted. We are probably talking about people close to death’s door. Mounting an immune response as the vaccine tells them to, is an energetic process. It’s not a problem for a healthy young person, just as hiking six miles over difficult terrain is no problem for a healthy young person. But for the elderly and frail, mounting a big immune response is a huge challenge to their resources.

What irony – to save these people nearing death from Covid we deliver the coup de grace with a vaccine!

swedenborg
swedenborg
5 years ago
Reply to  OKUK

We should expect to see deaths very shortly after vaccination in the very elderly not caused by the vaccine .But the amount of deaths? In Israel they have vaccinated 1 million and 5 reported deaths shortly after vaccination in elderly seemed rather plausible.( But Nethanyanou was unlucky to come out to congratulate the 1 million person vaccinated,he happened to be a former double-murderer)
But the figure from Iceland seems concerning considering they started 29th Dec. We don’t know if they started with extreme elderly but from a PR point of view for the vaccine, having 3 deaths shortly after vaccination 5 days after starting in a population with so far only 29 deaths of C-19 in Iceland should be worrying. But I am sure Hunt, Blair and Johnson have thought of something soothing to say and I think they will start censoring this news not to spread any fear.

Adamb
Adamb
5 years ago
Reply to  swedenborg

My father (85) went for his last week (god knows why since he had the virus a few weeks earlier, but he wouldn’t be told). No disrespect intended but the other people waiting for their jabs were mainly in wheelchairs or on Zimmer frames. So it’s really not surprising to hear of deaths shortly afterwards if that’s the demographic that’s being targeted. However, no chance these deaths will be recorded as vaccine related, in the same way as they might be recorded as covid related.

RickH
RickH
5 years ago
Reply to  Adamb

Perhaps the same criterion should be used as for ‘Covid deaths’ : deaths within 28 days of receiving a vaccine? 🙂

Adamb
Adamb
5 years ago

My – I’m ashamed to say- namesake Adam Hill going into overdrive on the Telegraph comments. I really detest that bloke. I can’t sleep for anger, I’m guessing he can’t sleep for delight.

Nobody2021
Nobody2021
5 years ago

John Swinney announces the introduction of a pre-crime task force in Scotland. Tougher restrictions in place to avoid the need for tougher restrictions…

The Nine
@BBCScotNine

“The government are acting on a pre-emptive basis to try and protect the public”

https://twitter.com/BBCScotNine/status/1346206543419748353

Basics
Basics
5 years ago
Reply to  Nobody2021

On the basis of data we are seeing. Who is we? What is the data? How reliable is their data? Is Swinney trustable?

And then the idea of prempting anything takes place is a realm of fantasy and imaginings. Alice in Wonderland.

Basics
Basics
5 years ago

The Scottish legislation of the restictions.

https://www.legislation.gov.uk/ssi/2021/1/regulation/4/made

leggy
leggy
5 years ago

Can anyone see anything unusual about this winter on this graph? I can’t.

FB_IMG_1609805371152.jpg
RickH
RickH
5 years ago
Reply to  leggy

That’s because it’s not unusual. 🙂

Nobody2021
Nobody2021
5 years ago
Reply to  RickH

Ok Tom Jones…:P

Basics
Basics
5 years ago

Shopping footfall.

Total footfall across UK retail destinations was 55.7% lower than in the same week last year, before the virus [government life restrictions] impacted the country.

Footfall in Tier 4 locations was 72.2% lower than last year, while Tier 3 areas saw a 33.9% year-on-year decline, Springboard said.

Diane Wehrle, insights director at Springboard, said: “The end of the festive trading period and tightened government restrictions unsurprisingly saw footfall in UK retail destinations drop significantly at the end of 2020.

Taken from Edinburghlive [my brackets].

Scotty87
Scotty87
5 years ago

Furlough scheme over by Easter? What a steaming platter of horse bollocks. This government of fascists discovered very quickly that a large percentage of the public’s compliance can be bought by stuffing gold in their mouths, for much of the idle bovine crowd couldn’t give a monkey’s about their freedoms – as long as they can be paid to post lockdown selfies from their brand new iPhones, life is a beach.

A pox on them and all of their houses.

Robin Birch
Robin Birch
5 years ago

Damn the man and his flunkies. That’s now blown a hole in the dry January!

Ovis
Ovis
5 years ago
Reply to  Robin Birch

I know many who are (more or less) believers, people who will be (more or less) compliant and (more or less) accept the whole narrative. They are saying the same thing – drink, prescription drugs, prescription drugs used not quite for the reasons prescribed…all the emotional impacts that you could imagine.

Last time around, the believers at least could derive some enjoyment from this. Not this time. This is taking a terrible toll on their mental health and emotional wellbeing. I can’t ‘scientifically’ quantify it, but I think the believers are having it worse than us.

Richard O
Richard O
5 years ago
Reply to  Ovis

I think you may well be right. Winter also has much to do with it. My opposition to the insanity is a great source of strength and seemingly limitless energy. We can anticipate what is coming far more readily. The believers (not necessarily zealots) know that they will have to own this, and that we will be waiting to call them out when things don’t pan out successfully.

stevie119
stevie119
5 years ago
Reply to  Ovis

I have just been over to r/coronavirus uk (reddit) which is normally a hotbed of bedwetters and what you surmise appears to be entirely correct. There are some horrible tragic stories there., Poor buggers. At least I ignored the rules and got pissed in the churchyard with me mates, enjoyed VE day etc. They`ve had nothing. Except their own fear to live with.

Ovis
Ovis
5 years ago
Reply to  stevie119

For them, the little people, the crime – compliance – has become its own punishment.

But the powerful are still creaming their pants with sadistic pleasure at all this compliance.

iansn
iansn
5 years ago

Just had a quick whiz over tot the Torygraph and Guido Fawkes, scepticism seems to be awash on the pages tonight, and the 77th beaten into a rapid retrweat

godowneasy
godowneasy
5 years ago

Scum media – this time the Guardian. Fuck it – I feel sorry for these people, I really really do. But, to sensationalise this story and to exploit these people to boost the covid cult is beyond any reasonable behaviour. This is war.

Husband from one of UK’s first married Down’s syndrome couples dies of CovidWife of Tommy Pilling ‘utterly devastated’ after partner’s death on New Year’s Day

4433.jpg
Two-Six
Two-Six
5 years ago
Reply to  godowneasy

That’s sad. However “Tommy Pilling, 62, from south end on sea Essex, who had been treated in three different hospitals since early December with a chest infection, died on New Year’s Day”.
“Pilling, who had dementia, had been shielding for 10 months, but then was hospitalised with a chest infection on 1 December”

62 is a fairly good age for a person who has Downs Syndrome to reach and it sounds like possibly his dementia might have been a significant factor in his demise too.

“He died on 1 January, after testing positive for coronavirus on 17 December”.

I remember seeing something about these two a while ago. I bet this is a really old photo.
https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2021/jan/04/husband-from-uks-first-downs-syndrome-marriage-dies-of-covid

So he had been shielding and he caught a chest infection….Bacterial…did he wear a face nappy all the time? I bet he did….then he got the covids in the hospital and the pneumonia got the better of him…but no it was the covids wasn’t it….

Bella Donna
Bella Donna
5 years ago
Reply to  Two-Six

I agree, 62 years for Downs Syndrome sufferer isn’t a bad age, it used to be 40.

OKUK
OKUK
5 years ago

Surely the Sweden graph showing that deaths in Sweden are on a par with the last ten years says it all. Posted by Joe Starling below. I’m assuming it’s right – can anyone confirm its accuracy? If it is accurate I suggest we include that in our messages to MPs. Because it really makes our case doesn’t it…Sweden, with a herd immunity strategy has triumphed.

Mark
Mark
5 years ago
Reply to  OKUK

It’s a little premature. Levitt recently endorsed a suggestion that Sweden looks like ending up with about 4-5000 excess deaths (over about 90k deaths annually, normally).

https://twitter.com/MLevitt_NP2013/status/1343518487533248512

RickH
RickH
5 years ago
Reply to  Mark

Again ‘excess deaths’ – a meaningless term.

Mark
Mark
5 years ago
Reply to  RickH

In this case he is referring specifically to the number above the five year mean. The point is just that the numbers are still likely to go up quite a lot over the Statista numbers which are only up to Dec 18th and likely to have a fair few late reports added.

But of course there are various issues, such as with not adjusting for pop and age, and as you have pointed out in the UK context, whether the five year average is appropriate.

As an illustration that there has been no death holocaust in Sweden, it’s fine, though.

RickH
RickH
5 years ago
Reply to  Mark

“In this case he is referring specifically to the number above the five year mean.”

I take that point. But that is how it needs to be defined. ‘Excess deaths’ implies some absolute baseline, and that mortality above this is somehow ‘unusual’ or ‘excessive’.

It may seem a fiddly point, but the term is used as part of the hysterical rhetoric that doesn’t reflect the wider picture. Deaths vary considerably from year to year, and a five-year baseline is too short to capture the fluctuations.

Mark
Mark
5 years ago
Reply to  RickH

Fair point, well made.

Jo Starlin
Jo Starlin
5 years ago
Reply to  Mark

Hi Mark I’ve replied along similar lines below.

Mark
Mark
5 years ago
Reply to  Jo Starlin

Seen, thanks. I’m not saying it isn’t a perfectly good quick illustration of the position. People just need to be prepared for the likely comebacks and have the answers ready.

Jo Starlin
Jo Starlin
5 years ago
Reply to  Mark

Absolutely.

RickH
RickH
5 years ago
Reply to  OKUK

I wouldn’t hold your breath. MPs are vaccinated against facts and reality.

But yes – in terms of the one reliable measure – all-cause mortality – the bar chart is accurate.

Jo Starlin
Jo Starlin
5 years ago
Reply to  OKUK

Hiya, I can’t post from my phone or I would have been back earlier. It is right. It’s from Statista. It’s accurate up to December 18th. Average annual deaths in Sweden hover between 89 and 92 thousand. With two weeks left on the figures and a rough average of 1800 Swedes dying a week generally they’ll end up at around 3 or 4 thousand over 2018. Not exactly the Black Death.

https://www.statista.com/statistics/525353/sweden-number-of-deaths/

Draper233
Draper233
5 years ago
Reply to  OKUK

Current data shows 91,773 deaths up to Dec 18th, so I would anticipate another circa 4000 deaths to be added which will take the 2020 death rate higher than any of the last 10 years:

https://www.statista.com/statistics/525353/sweden-number-of-deaths/

However, it is important to factor in that 2019 was the lowest year for deaths in the last 10, creating a lot of “dry tinder”, many of whom succumbed in care homes earlier this year (where a very large percentage of “Covid” deaths occurred).

So on balance, the strategy has been empirically successful, albeit with flaws in care home protection.

Even more so when you consider that Ferguson’s model predicted around 85,000 deaths if strict measures weren’t implemented.

Nick Rose
Nick Rose
5 years ago
Reply to  OKUK

1,118 excess deaths over a ten year average.

Anonymous
Anonymous
5 years ago

I would say word may have gone out in the Guardian that LS need to be challenged. Both Mason and Nafeez Ahmed making calls in that direction today.

godowneasy
godowneasy
5 years ago
Reply to  Anonymous

We had better hope that Toby Young has the balls to keep going.

OKUK
OKUK
5 years ago
Reply to  Anonymous

Bring it on. Would like nothing better than have those cowards fall on our spears. I doubt many would turn up here armed only with their wafer-thin virtue .

Richard O
Richard O
5 years ago
Reply to  Anonymous

Yes, the increase in the severity of the attacks in social media specifically targeting sceptics, and the broad similarity of the messages, is a sure sign that our views are gaining traction. If we were irrelevant, there would be no need to do this. It may not feel like it but we are still very much in this fight.

John P
John P
5 years ago
Reply to  Richard O

A very good point Richard. I completely agree with you on this.

Anonymous
Anonymous
5 years ago
Reply to  Richard O

Yep. Brings up the old cliche of flak over the target. Every time the govt bring a new set of restrictions it will also alienate more people. That has to be seen as a good thing.

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