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The Telegraph, like all the other broadsheets, leads with the OBR's grim forecast – that the economy could shrink by 35% this spring if the lockdown continues for another two months. You can read the OBR's analysis here. We also learnt yesterday that two high street fashion chains are going into administration, Oasis and Warehouse. That follows last week's news that Debenhams, with 22,000 employees, has filed for administration, as has Cath Kidson, putting 950 jobs at risk. The collapse of these employers – not to mention the third of small businesses likely to go bankrupt if the lockdown continues – will have a cost in terms of loss of life. Yesterday, a reader alerted me to an interesting 2009 paper estimating the impact of mass redundancies on mortality by looking at job losses in Pennsylvania in the 1970s and 80s and then tracking those workers via Social Security Administration death records. The authors' concluded that being made redundant at the age of 40 results in a reduction in life expectancy of 1 to 1.5 years. You can read that paper here. Another reader sent me a link to an excellent source of data for lockdown sceptics called 'Facts about COVID-19'. If you click here, you'll be taken to the latest update. Among the new studies it mentions is a pre-print ...
