Myocarditis

Vaccine Rollout Correlates With 25% Spike in Cardiac Arrest Emergency Calls for Young Adults, Study Finds

Emergency calls for cardiac arrest and acute coronary syndrome in young people in Israel were significantly associated with the vaccine rollout, both first and second doses, spiking 25% higher than in earlier years, but not with COVID-19 prevalence, a study in the Nature journal Scientific Reports has found.

Using data from the Israel National Emergency Medical Services (EMS) from 2019 to 2021, the study looked at the volume of cardiac arrest and acute coronary syndrome EMS calls in the 16-39 year-old population. It found an increase of over 25% in both call types during January-May 2021, compared with 2019-2020, but no significant increase in calls correlating with COVID-19 infection rates.

The main finding of this study concerns with increases of over 25% in both the number of CA [cardiac arrest] calls and ACS [acute coronary syndrome] calls of people in the 16-39 age group during the COVID-19 vaccination rollout in Israel (January-May, 2021), compared with the same period of time in prior years (2019 and 2020). Moreover, there is a robust and statistically significant association between the weekly CA and ACS call counts, and the rates of first and second vaccine doses administered to this age group. At the same time there is no observed statistically significant association between COVID-19 infection rates and the CA and ACS call counts. This result is aligned with previous findings which show increases in overall CA incidence were not always associated with higher COVID-19 infections rates at a population level, as well as the stability of hospitalisation rates related to myocardial infarction throughout the initial COVID-19 wave compared to pre-pandemic baselines in Israel. These results also are mirrored by a report of increased emergency department visits with cardiovascular complaints during the vaccination rollout in Germany as well as increased EMS calls for cardiac incidents in Scotland.

While several studies have found severe myocarditis to be a rare adverse effect of the vaccines, the study authors note that myocarditis is often missed, and in fact has been found to be likely responsible for 12-20% of unexpected deaths in adults under 40 in normal times.

Covid Vaccines Increase Risk of Severe Heart Inflammation Up to 120-Fold, Major Study Finds

Covid vaccination increases the risk of severe heart inflammation up to 120-fold, a major study from Scandinavia published in the Journal of the American Medical Association (JAMA) has found.

The study looked at over 23 million patient records covering the over-12s populations of Denmark, Finland, Norway and Sweden from the start of the vaccine rollout in December 2020 to October 5th 2021.

For young males aged 16-24 years within 28 days of a second dose the study found severe myocarditis (requiring inpatient hospital admission) around five times more common after Pfizer and 14 times more common after Moderna. This corresponded to six events per 100,000 people after Pfizer and 18 events per 100,000 after Moderna. A second dose of Moderna given after a first dose of Pfizer came with even higher risk: a 36-fold increased risk, corresponding to 27 events per 100,000 people. The Moderna vaccine has three times the dose of mRNA of the Pfizer vaccine, which the authors suggest lies behind the increased risk.

Myocarditis Risk Increases Up To 133-FOLD Following Covid Vaccination, Study Finds

A study published this week in the Journal of the American Medical Association (JAMA) has found that the risk of myocarditis (heart inflammation) after receiving an mRNA Covid vaccine (Pfizer or Moderna) was dramatically increased across many age groups and was highest after the second vaccination dose in young men.

The study found myocarditis reports were highest after the second vaccination dose in males aged 12 to 15 years at 70.7 per million Pfizer doses, compared to an expected rate of 0.53 per million, amounting to a 133-fold increase; in males aged 16 to 17 years at 105.9 per million Pfizer doses, compared to an expected rate of 1.34 per million, amounting to a 79-fold increase; and in young men aged 18 to 24 years at 52.4 per million Pfizer doses and 56.3 per million Moderna doses, compared to an expected rate of 1.76 per million, amounting to a 30-fold and 32-fold increase respectively. The full results are shown in the table below and a selection are depicted in the chart above.

Sajid Javid Must Halt Child Covid Vaccination Immediately and Investigate the Cause of the Spike in Child Deaths

In recent months, a trend has been noted in the England and Wales all-cause mortality data, which has rung some alarm bells. Young males aged 15-19 have shown a rising death rate compared to the five-year average 2015-2019. At the same time, a large insurance company in the U.S. has reported a significant increase in deaths in the under 40s. This is obviously of concern, whatever the cause, but one possible factor which needs to be urgently excluded is any link to vaccine injury. The association between myocarditis and the mRNA vaccines, especially in younger age groups and in males, is already well established. It is particularly urgent as second doses and boosters are being rolled out, possibly putting adolescents at even higher risk, and at a time when the Omicron variant is much milder.

Members of HART, the Health Advisory and Recovery Team, have joined with other senior academics and health professionals to call for an immediate investigation into the increasing death rate amongst 15-19-year-old males since May of this year. 

At the High Court on Thursday 13th January, the ONS (Office for National Statistics) confirmed that there has been a significant rise in the death rate for adolescent males over the last eight months, compared to the same time period of 2015-2019. There have been at least 65 extra deaths in England and Wales, though the figure may be higher due to reporting delays for coroners’ cases. During the same time frame there were only two deaths involving Covid.

The concern is that this time period coincides with the rollout of vaccinations to this age group, who are known to be at an increased risk of myocarditis (heart inflammation), especially after the second dose. Far from rushing to investigate these deaths as they have arisen, ONS has stated it intends to undertake that work “when more reliable data are available”.

The rollout of vaccinations in this age group was always controversial, with risks and benefits finely balanced, but the Chief Medical Officers overturned the original advice, not on health grounds but to “reduce disruption to schools”.  Any marginal benefit of vaccination for the young must be considered outweighed by even a marginal increase in mortality. With the reduced risk from Omicron, and with increased risk from second doses, the balance will have tipped still further. 

An open letter to Sajid Javid, Chris Whitty, Patrick Vallance and the relevant public health bodies has been signed by over 80 scientists and health professionals, demanding there be an urgent investigation.

We and the other authors call on Sajid Javid and his advisors urgently and thoroughly to investigate these deaths, and to halt any doses for children or young people until vaccination has been ruled out as a cause.  

The full letter is available here: “Open Letter to the MHRA Regarding Child Death Data“.

Dr. Clare Craig is a Diagnostic Pathologist and Dr. Ros Jones is a retired Paediatrician.

End Covid Vaccination of Children Because the Risks Outweigh the Benefits, Government Told By MPs and Scientists

The risks of vaccinating children against Covid now clearly outweigh the benefits, the Government has been told by a group of MPs and scientists.

In an open letter to the Government’s vaccination advisory committee – the JCVI – the MPs including Miriam Cates, Esther McVey and Sir Desmond Swayne and scientists including Professor Allyson Pollock, Dr Roland Salmon and Professor Brent Taylor write that “the risk to benefit ratio for child Covid vaccination has worsened since September”.

They continue:

The risks of adverse events (including but not limited to myocarditis) increase as more doses are given, and any advantages are reduced as vaccine effectiveness in suppressing Omicron transmission decreases (especially given widespread natural immunity). Given that any potential benefits of vaccinating children were calculated to be marginal at best in the first place, we suspect that this margin has not only evaporated but actually reversed in light of the characteristics of the new and dominant Omicron variant and the increase in robust and durable naturally-acquired immunity. …

Unlike the elderly and clinically vulnerable population – for whom the potentially life-saving benefits of vaccination substantially outweigh any risks from vaccination – our children face no such threat from COVID-19 yet have 50 or more years of healthy life expectancy ahead of them that could be compromised by long-term vaccine harms. It is crucial that, if we are to proceed with the mass double vaccination of healthy children, we are absolutely certain that this policy will do more good than harm. Furthermore, we need to give consideration to what precedent is being set for triple or even continuous and regular vaccination for this age group.

We believe that the benefit to risk ratio of child vaccination should be reassessed in light of the Omicron variant and new evidence on both vaccine harms and superior natural immunity. We urge the JCVI to review this new evidence and provide updated advice to the Government with regards to the mass vaccination of healthy 12-15 year olds.

Brent Taylor, Professor Emeritus of Community Child Health at UCL Great Ormond Street Institute of Child Health and formerly a JCVI member for eight years, said: 

Does the Oxford Study on Post-Vaccine Myocarditis Underestimate the Risk?

There follows a guest post by Daily Sceptic reader ‘Amanuensis’, as he’s known in the comments section, who is an ex-academic and senior Government researcher/scientist with experience in the field (find his blog here). He has taken a closer look at the recent papers from Oxford University on post-vaccine myocarditis risk and has some concerns about the methodology they have used which he suspects may underestimate the risk.

A few days ago the Daily Sceptic published an article on the risks of post-vaccination myocarditis, taking data from a recent paper by Julia Hippisley-Cox of Oxford University. This is a hot topic as myocarditis appears to have become the poster-child of vaccine side effects in the young, and any scientific papers that attempt to quantify the risk of myocarditis seem to get rather a lot of attention. Hippisley-Cox’s recent paper is no different.

Unfortunately, Hippisley-Cox et al appears to have used its method of choice, the Self-Controlled Case Series (SCCS), inappropriately. This is a bit of a grand statement given that Julia Hippisley-Cox’s papers are published in Nature Medicine, a very reputable journal – I’ll explain why the method has been used inappropriately and perhaps you might agree with me.

The self-controlled case series experimental design is quite simple in concept – there’s always a risk in experiments that your experimental group (the ones that we did things to) are different from the control group (the ones that were left alone), so in SCCS you simply use the same people for the experiment group and control group. In this particular example the magic happens by allocating a time for the vaccine side effects and stating that outside of this time the vaccine risk was zero – thus each experimental participant automatically sits in both the control group and experimental group.

There’s a nuance in the way SCCS is done for the Covid vaccine trials, in that there’ll often be a period before each treatment that is set aside and not used in the data analysis – the stated reason for this is because ill people are less likely to get vaccinated. I’ll come back to this point later, but for now just remember that there’s a pre-vaccine period that is separated out from the other data.

So, just to get up to speed on the sort of thing that you’d see with SCCS, I’ve made up a ‘perfect example’ of how SCCS might be used. In the following graph the number of side effects are indicated by little red dots – there are a low level of side effects before vaccination which then increase during the week after vaccination and then a gradual return to the baseline:

Major Oxford Study into Vaccine Side-Effects Finds Myocarditis Risk in Younger Males Up to 14 Times Higher After Vaccination Than After Infection

A major study from the University of Oxford into risks of myocarditis (heart inflammation) following Covid vaccination has found the risk in males under 40 to be significantly higher than the risk of the condition following Covid infection.

The researchers found that while there were seven additional myocarditis events per million in the 28 days following COVID-19 infection (95% Confidence Interval (CI): 2, 11), there were 14 following an AstraZeneca second dose (CI: 8,17), 12 following a Pfizer second dose (CI: 1,7), 101 following a Moderna second dose (CI: 95,104), and 13 following a Pfizer third dose (CI: 7,15). These findings are depicted above. Most of these figures represent a doubling of the risk compared with infection. However, the Moderna second dose figure is a massive 14.4 times greater. The Moderna vaccine uses a similar mRNA technology to the Pfizer vaccine, but delivers a dose three times as large, which may partly explain the difference.

For females and for males over 40 the study found greater risk of myocarditis following infection than following vaccination. However, some have criticised the study for under-counting Covid infections by using positive tests rather than antibody surveys, which means the risk following infection may be exaggerated. Another criticism was the use of only two age bands – above and below 40 years – which may conceal elevated risks for younger age groups. A third criticism is that by comparing the risk after infection to the risk after vaccination the study does not allow for the fact that many of the vaccinated will subsequently be infected anyway and experience both risks.

The study, which is a pre-print, is an update to an earlier study published in Nature earlier in December which used data up to August 24th. The update brings us up to November 15th, extends the age range down to 13 years from 16 years, and also includes results split by both sex and age (rather than just by sex and age separately) – the original study was especially criticised for omitting this breakdown, leading to allegations of concealing important findings for political purposes.

The authors note: “These findings have important implications for public health and vaccination policy.”

Indeed they do. In particular, given the low risk of Covid to males under 40, the extreme elevated risk of myocarditis from the Moderna vaccine means it ought to be suspended for use in males under 40 with immediate effect.

Image credit: Dr Tracy Høeg.

What’s the Truth About Covid Vaccines and Heart Attacks?

A further three football players collapsed during play this week, bringing new interest to the question of what might be the connection between this unusually high number of on-field medical emergencies and the Covid vaccines. Football pundit Trevor Sinclair got into hot water for raising the question on-air, while scientists argued that the disturbing trend is more likely to be a consequence of Covid itself than the vaccines.

Presumably something lies behind the recent rise, which according to some analysts has involved 21 sudden deaths (most heart-related) of FIFA players so far in 2021, compared to around 4.2 in an average year (with a standard deviation of 2.0). Assuming this isn’t a reporting phenomenon, this is an extraordinary spike and highly statistically significant.

The two major unusual factors this year are the presence of SARS-CoV-2 and the Covid vaccination programme. However, only two such deaths were reported in 2020, when Covid was also around, which would seem to lend weight to a vaccine explanation.

The vaccines are known to affect the heart and cardiovascular system in some cases, which is why blood clots and heart inflammation (e.g. myocarditis) are among the side-effects listed and why a number of countries have ceased using some of the vaccines in younger age groups. This means the idea that there could be a link between an unusual spate of heart-related emergencies and the vaccines shouldn’t be dismissed out of hand.

Why Has There Been a Rise in Non-Covid-Related Heart Attacks Since the Vaccine Roll-Out?

There follows a guest post by the academic economist who regularly contributes to the Daily Sceptic.

We have known for some time that the vaccines can lead to myocarditis, a condition that causes the heart muscle to swell. Myocarditis is typically a serious illness and in its worst cases can cause cardiac arrest and death. There are also some indications that the risk for myocarditis from the vaccine may be higher in younger people and especially in younger men – a group that is not seriously at risk from COVID-19.

This was clearly not an effect picked up by the clinical trials. We already know that the clinical trials have proved misleading when it comes to protection against infection – and there are also indications that the trials may have been misleading on how well the vaccine prevents hospitalisation and death. Since the vaccine was launched, independent macro-level data has consistently proved more scientifically reliable than micro-level trial data.

So, can we get any numbers on macro-level heart failure? Yes, in fact, we can – and the results are disturbing. The Government publishes a weekly report on excess mortality in England and it includes a breakdown by cause. One of these causes of death is heart failure. Usefully, the data also tells us how many of the deaths from heart failure were due to COVID-19. Using this data, we can calculate excess deaths from heart failure not caused by COVID-19. Let us compare the period in which the vaccine has been active, to the period in which it was not.

Here we see that excess deaths from heart failure that were not caused by COVID-19 are more than 12 times higher in 2021 than they were in 2020. Could these be myocarditis deaths induced by the vaccine? Possibly. There is no way to be totally sure. But the results are worrying and merit further investigation.

One statistical trick we might use to tease out causality is to take the ratio of COVID-19-induced excess heart failures to non-COVID-19-induced excess heart failures and compare this to the number of people vaccinated under-30 – i.e., the group most vulnerable to vaccine-induced myocarditis. (Note: there is no age-specific data on non-Covid-related heart attacks.)

New Zealand Woman Dies After Receiving Pfizer Covid Vaccine

The whole of New Zealand was plunged into lockdown following the reporting of a single Covid ‘case’ earlier this month. But the main response to today’s reporting of a death in the country linked to the Pfizer vaccine appears to be highlighting just how safe the jab really is. Sky News has the story.

The Covid Independent Safety Monitoring Board (CV-ISMB) did note that there were other medical issues occurring simultaneously, which may have influenced [the woman’s] death following her vaccination.

“This is the first case in New Zealand where a death in the days following vaccination has been linked to the Pfizer Covid vaccine,” the Ministry said in a statement, without giving the woman’s age.

The Ministry added the vaccine monitoring panel attributed the death to myocarditis, a rare but known side effect of the vaccination.

Myocarditis is an inflammation of the heart muscle that can limit the organ’s ability to pump blood and can cause changes in heartbeat rhythms.

Last month, New Zealand Medicines and Medical Devices Safety Authority (Medsafe) issued a safety alert on myocarditis to raise awareness of the side effect.

All cases of deaths following vaccinations are referred to the CV-ISMB for review.

The board’s Chairman, Dr. John Tait, said: “We want to ensure that the outcomes from this investigation are widely available for others to learn from.

“The Pfizer vaccine is highly effective in protecting against serious illness and death from Covid and we remain confident about using it in New Zealand.”

The Health Ministry has reassured people that the benefits of the jab continue to “greatly outweigh” the risk of Covid and vaccine side effects.

In response, Pfizer said it recognised there could be incidences of myocarditis after vaccinations but such side effects were extremely rare.

Worth reading in full.