New figures show that cumulative age-adjusted mortality in England and Wales in the first six months of 2021 is 0.4% below the 10-year average, making 2021 among the least deadly years in history.
May's age-standardised mortality rate was the lowest on record for that month, and the second-lowest on record for any month. The overall mortality rate in the first five months of the year is now lower than in 2018.
Last year, the UK's age-standardised mortality rate returned to the level of 2008. People claim it would have risen far more in the absence of lockdowns. Yet Sweden's rate only returned to the level of 2015.
Sweden saw particularly low mortality in 2019, which may partly explain why its mortality rate rose in 2020. Taking the average of 2019 and 2020, Sweden had lower mortality than both Denmark and Finland.
The age-standardised mortality rate in April was the lowest on record for that month. If the rate remains low for the next few months, it will "cancel out" most of the excess mortality observed in the second wave.
