You're free to go on the ONS site and work out for yourself. I can't get side-tracked with pleasing everyone. I'm only pointing out this tragic figure for people to take note. I shall be sending the info where it might have an impact.
Pamela Stott
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Joined: 31 Aug 2020 08:08
Contact: Contact Pamela Stott
Re: Latest Total Weekly Deaths Ages 15-44 England and Wales
Post by Pamela Stott » 12 May 2021 17:34
I have the following figures to report which I have taken from gov.uk Total Weekly Deaths Analysis 2012 - 2021 until week 16 , 23 April 2021 for age band 15-44. Why did I choose this range? Earlier, I posted my analysis for 2011- 2020 for age 45-upwards. These new figures seem pertinent to the vaccine roll-out and perhaps an explanation of the increase in deaths of this lower age range.I will leave others to argue about it. I stand corrected should anyone have a different set of figures as the ONS gets a little more confusing as time goes by, and I'm too busy trying to persuade people to wake up before it's too late.
2012 4566
2013 4655
2014 4747
2015 4613
2016 4844
2017 4482
2018 4645
2019 4615
2020 4739
2021 5512
I expect this trend to continue for the next 3 to 5 years at least as the toll from deferred diagnosis and treatments for all other medical conditions starts adding up. In all age cohorts.
This long term toll of the lockdown was always going to dwarf the very small number of people with deferred mortality due to the lockdown. I expect in terms of YLL (Years of life lost) the results will be even more stark. Of the order of 10x or 20x at least. A very small group of people with a low YLL traded for a very large group of people with a high YLL.
Pamela Stott
Posts: 45
Joined: 31 Aug 2020 08:08
Contact: Contact Pamela Stott
Re: Latest Total Weekly Deaths Ages 15-44 England and Wales
Post by Pamela Stott » 12 May 2021 17:34
I have the following figures to report which I have taken from gov.uk Total Weekly Deaths Analysis 2012 - 2021 until week 16 , 23 April 2021 for age band 15-44. Why did I choose this range? Earlier, I posted my analysis for 2011- 2020 for age 45-upwards. These new figures seem pertinent to the vaccine roll-out and perhaps an explanation of the increase in deaths of this lower age range.I will leave others to argue about it. I stand corrected should anyone have a different set of figures as the ONS gets a little more confusing as time goes by, and I'm too busy trying to persuade people to wake up before it's too late.
2012 4566
2013 4655
2014 4747
2015 4613
2016 4844
2017 4482
2018 4645
2019 4615
2020 4739
2021 5512
I expect this trend to continue for the next 3 to 5 years at least as the toll from deferred diagnosis and treatments for all other medical conditions starts adding up. In all age cohorts.
This long term toll of the lockdown was always going to dwarf the very small number of people with deferred mortality due to the lockdown. I expect in terms of YLL (Years of life lost) the results will be even more stark. Of the order of 10x or 20x at least. A very small group of people with a low YLL traded for a very large group of people with a high YLL.
Attributing the long term effect to "lockdown" instead of the disease, requires some justification.
It would be reasonable to assume no lock down would have meant larger case numbers and subsequent demand on the NHS and even more missed diagnoses and treatments. Hence lockdown will have saved lives, short term and long term.
So what is your justification?
Where lockdown will have caused a long term negative impact is through economic impact and the direct impact of confinement.
Pamela Stott
Posts: 45
Joined: 31 Aug 2020 08:08
Contact: Contact Pamela Stott
Re: Latest Total Weekly Deaths Ages 15-44 England and Wales
Post by Pamela Stott » 12 May 2021 17:34
I have the following figures to report...........
Just noticed your figures. They look too small, so I checked a few. I think they're about 1/4 of what they should be. Here are a couple of examples of the correct (I believe) 15-44 age group deaths -
2019 - 14,714
2020 - 15,623
You didn't say where you got your numbers or how you totalled the age group you were interested in. The figures are here -
https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/datasets/weeklyprovisionalfiguresondeathsregisteredinenglandandwales
then you just use the Sigma function to add up the rows/columns you're interested in. It's interesting that everyone who replied was happy to take the figures at face value.
Pamela Stott
Posts: 45
Joined: 31 Aug 2020 08:08
Contact: Contact Pamela Stott
Re: Latest Total Weekly Deaths Ages 15-44 England and Wales
Post by Pamela Stott » 12 May 2021 17:34
I have the following figures to report which I have taken from gov.uk Total Weekly Deaths Analysis 2012 - 2021 until week 16 , 23 April 2021 for age band 15-44. Why did I choose this range? Earlier, I posted my analysis for 2011- 2020 for age 45-upwards. These new figures seem pertinent to the vaccine roll-out and perhaps an explanation of the increase in deaths of this lower age range.I will leave others to argue about it. I stand corrected should anyone have a different set of figures as the ONS gets a little more confusing as time goes by, and I'm too busy trying to persuade people to wake up before it's too late.
2012 4566
2013 4655
2014 4747
2015 4613
2016 4844
2017 4482
2018 4645
2019 4615
2020 4739
2021 5512
Looks like the 2021 jump will be dominated by covid deaths in that age group.
What's your explanation?
Covid deaths, by which you mean people who actually died of covid 19,or some other definition?
Because the definitions used by the NHS, ONS and govt have (by their own admissions and/or changes to how they record cases and therefore deaths) inflated the true number of "covid deaths".
The symptoms are so weak and generic now and testing so riddled with errors any statistics relating to "covid deaths" in lower age groups don't hold up without scrutiny of each individual case. There are so few, perhaps you could provide details of each one?
