Why is Boris defying SAGE?
Boris is still pressing on with his plan to open up on June 21. He seems to have grown a pair, let's see why.
One SAGE member Prof Ravi Gupta says the Indian variant, B.1.617.2, will continue to rise, and says that “We still have people under the age of 30 not vaccinated, we have many people with only one dose, so this virus has plenty of space to expand exponentially and reach very high levels of infection with quite high levels of morbidity overall.” I think he's wrong.
Let's look at it. The population of the uk is 67 m, we have 12m children, so 55m adults. 39m of them (70.1%) have had at least one dose (22m have had two doses.) Which means the group gupta is worried about comprises max 16m (67m - 39m=16m), most of them being under 30.
And he says this virus has plenty of space to expand exponentially and reach very high levels of infection with quite high levels of morbidity overall. I don't know about that since most young adults seem to get off lightly. But giving gupta the benefit of the doubt for a moment, more are being vaxxed all the time. We are vaxxing 1st dose at 265k first doses per day. And 370k 2nd doses per day.
rwt first doses. By 22 June, that's 31 days or 8.2m, so by Boris' deadline we will only have max 7.8m people under the age of 30 not vaccinated, and since 6 in 10 adults have antibodies already through infection, this means only max 3.1m people under the age of 30 not protected at all.
Furthermore wrt partial vaccination , in 31 days the group of those with first dose only will shrink from 17m to 5.7m. And 6 in 10 of those have immunity from prior infection hence only ~2m are only partially protected.
In summary, Boris is right to press on and Gupta needs to improve his arithmetic. The max number of vulnerable adults by 21 june will be 5m, of the strongest adults amongst us. The virus by summer will have very limited space to expand exponentially and cannot plausibly reach very high levels of infection or high levels of morbidity.” Esp when the good weather comes to dricve the cases even lower. Gupta's got it wrong.
Although i agree he needs to ignore SAGE the biggest issue is his own cabinet.
Hancock but in particular Gove has been campaigning for hard lockdowns and manipulating as many people as possible to pressure Boris into it.
Gupta's claims dont make sense. There's literally nothing to suggest 617 morbidity is any higher than wild type for that age group (so looking at IFRs of well under 0.1%).
A few things with your maths though. It takes 2-3 weeks after a first dose for protection to start. Prior to that theres some suggestion you're at an increased risk of infection.
Also remember vaccines are 2 doses. More and more data shows theres a big jump in efficacy after the second dose. Thats why they're speeding up 2nd doses for the over 50s now.
Theres no data to suggest natural infection is anything like 6 in 10. Its likely nearer 3 in 10.
Also you're treating them as different groups. We cant add vaccinated to non vaccinated to get a total protection - they're the same people. All you can do is use the vaccinated total. Unlike other countries, we're vaccinating those already protected through natural infection.
The overall premise is correct but the actual timings and calculations are off.
Already the only unvaccinated groups left are those with vanishingly small risks of getting moderately ill at all so theres no reason to keep any restrictions even now.
Why is Boris defying SAGE?
Boris is still pressing on with his plan to open up on June 21. He seems to have grown a pair, let's see why.
One SAGE member Prof Ravi Gupta says the Indian variant, B.1.617.2, will continue to rise, and says that “We still have people under the age of 30 not vaccinated, we have many people with only one dose, so this virus has plenty of space to expand exponentially and reach very high levels of infection with quite high levels of morbidity overall.” I think he's wrong.
Let's look at it. The population of the uk is 67 m, we have 12m children, so 55m adults. 39m of them (70.1%) have had at least one dose (22m have had two doses.) Which means the group gupta is worried about comprises max 16m (67m - 39m=16m), most of them being under 30.
And he says this virus has plenty of space to expand exponentially and reach very high levels of infection with quite high levels of morbidity overall. I don't know about that since most young adults seem to get off lightly. But giving gupta the benefit of the doubt for a moment, more are being vaxxed all the time. We are vaxxing 1st dose at 265k first doses per day. And 370k 2nd doses per day.
rwt first doses. By 22 June, that's 31 days or 8.2m, so by Boris' deadline we will only have max 7.8m people under the age of 30 not vaccinated, and since 6 in 10 adults have antibodies already through infection, this means only max 3.1m people under the age of 30 not protected at all.
Furthermore wrt partial vaccination , in 31 days the group of those with first dose only will shrink from 17m to 5.7m. And 6 in 10 of those have immunity from prior infection hence only ~2m are only partially protected.
In summary, Boris is right to press on and Gupta needs to improve his arithmetic. The max number of vulnerable adults by 21 june will be 5m, of the strongest adults amongst us. The virus by summer will have very limited space to expand exponentially and cannot plausibly reach very high levels of infection or high levels of morbidity.” Esp when the good weather comes to dricve the cases even lower. Gupta's got it wrong.
A couple of problems to point out.
"since 6 in 10 adults have antibodies already through infection" I don't believe there is anything to support this. ONS data showed nothing like this from their surveys.
You need to consider vaccination + 3 weeks to have protection. Protected people are what needs considering.
It does look like focussed vaccination for younger age groups in areas with outbreaks B.1.617.2, is happening so there is some hope.
On a political level, I would be surprised if even Boris would be stupid enough to make promises ahead of the 1 week notice schedule.
He's already made the mistake of letting the Indian variant in for weeks, so if there is a time to watch the data it is now.
A couple of problems to point out.
"since 6 in 10 adults have antibodies already through infection" I don't believe there is anything to support this. ONS data showed nothing like this from their surveys.
you are not called on to accept it, since even if you were right today, you would be wrong tomoorow, it is far less undignified to accept your fate.
You need to consider vaccination + 3 weeks to have protection.
Then your argument will die after max three weeks. It is more than three weeks to June 21. Which three weeks would you prefer to wait for economic, social and mental health oblivion?
It does look like focussed vaccination for younger age groups in areas with outbreaks B.1.617.2, is happening so there is some hope.
There is no point in vaccinaing young people, since in three weeks or so it is all over, so the clot risk of the vaccine, which rest mainly on the young, offsets any gain. for old people.
On a political level, I would be surprised if even Boris would be stupid enough to make promises ahead of the 1 week notice schedule.
That's a new one, a person who does not regard Mr Johnson as a selfish plank. you are shitting us, right?
Doris has no intention of defying sage..this is just more game playing.. he is a puppet blowing to his masters bidding...
