Pamela Stott
Posts: 45
Joined: 31 Aug 2020 08:08
Contact: Contact Pamela Stott
Re: Latest Total Weekly Deaths Ages 15-44 England and Wales
Post by Pamela Stott » 12 May 2021 17:34
I have the following figures to report which I have taken from gov.uk Total Weekly Deaths Analysis 2012 - 2021 until week 16 , 23 April 2021 for age band 15-44. Why did I choose this range? Earlier, I posted my analysis for 2011- 2020 for age 45-upwards. These new figures seem pertinent to the vaccine roll-out and perhaps an explanation of the increase in deaths of this lower age range.I will leave others to argue about it. I stand corrected should anyone have a different set of figures as the ONS gets a little more confusing as time goes by, and I'm too busy trying to persuade people to wake up before it's too late.
2012 4566
2013 4655
2014 4747
2015 4613
2016 4844
2017 4482
2018 4645
2019 4615
2020 4739
2021 5512
Thanks, Pamela.
That is a shocking increase, although I despair of it being picked up and acted upon anytime soon.
Pamela Stott
Posts: 45
Joined: 31 Aug 2020 08:08
Contact: Contact Pamela Stott
Re: Latest Total Weekly Deaths Ages 15-44 England and Wales
Post by Pamela Stott » 12 May 2021 17:34
I have the following figures to report which I have taken from gov.uk Total Weekly Deaths Analysis 2012 - 2021 until week 16 , 23 April 2021 for age band 15-44. Why did I choose this range? Earlier, I posted my analysis for 2011- 2020 for age 45-upwards. These new figures seem pertinent to the vaccine roll-out and perhaps an explanation of the increase in deaths of this lower age range.I will leave others to argue about it. I stand corrected should anyone have a different set of figures as the ONS gets a little more confusing as time goes by, and I'm too busy trying to persuade people to wake up before it's too late.
2012 4566
2013 4655
2014 4747
2015 4613
2016 4844
2017 4482
2018 4645
2019 4615
2020 4739
2021 5512
Looks like the 2021 jump will be dominated by covid deaths in that age group.
What's your explanation?
Well the deaths of young adults in 2020 is slightly more than the preceeding running average, while the deaths of young adult in 2121 is ~20% more than the preceeding running average.
In 2020, since the figures only run jan through April, the modest increase is explained that the Pandemic had not fully developed, whereas in 2020, the Pandemic was fuly developed.One might judge that the figure for 2020 would be much worse if May and June were also included, by which time the Pandemic had a full head of steam.
So it's likely that thousands of people aged 15-44 died in the Pandemic. From this column of figures, around 1,000 between jan ..Apr 2021. So likely to be <= 5,000 or so in total deaths of people 15-44 so far in this pandemic, which would be perhaps 4% of total.
While data from new york city health dated may 2020, showed they'd had between 3.9%and 4.5% share of total in the 18 - 44 years old group.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-age-sex-demographics/
This 3--5 % estimate is remarkably consistent in lots of data, here's one of many plots, showing the same thing.
In summary, that's why they are doing surge vaccination of younger people in Bolton. They might yet save a few thousand younger people.
They are also pertinent to lockdown deaths including suicides.
Might also be more useful if broken down into sex.
