I am very stupid. Does that mean that the vaccinated get the virus more than the unvaccinated?
Does it mean the vaccines protect others by making them more susceptible to getting the virus?
But the solution is to exclude unvaccinated people from society.
Remember [cue soft female voice, funeral home music] "every vaccination gives us hope".
Are we still saving the NHS?
Thus it looks like vaccination greatly reduces pressure on the health service. And that is the difference vaccine has made.
Given that this is a seasonal virus, do we have a comparison for the same period last year, or has September 2020 against May 2021 been chosen to fit a narrative?
Thus it looks like vaccination greatly reduces pressure on the health service. And that is the difference vaccine has made.
Given that this is a seasonal virus, do we have a comparison for the same period last year, or has September 2020 against May 2021 been chosen to fit a narrative?
It does look like it is a seasonal virus, but it also appears to be a virus that infects in 'waves'. The reasons for this are unclear (there are a few theories), but the behaviour appears clear -- it goes into remission, and then suddenly spikes -- taking about 4-6 weeks to go from low-to-peak and then 4-6 weeks to fall back down again (although this can be hampered by a new variant appearing, as happened in the UK last autumn/winter). Note that this behaviour doesn't seem to be influenced by the various restrictions / surge-vaccinations but seems inherent in the behaviour of the virus and in the immune response of humans. You can see this in data from different countries, which often show the same wave behaviour regardless of lockdowns or vaccination drives. (there are some countries that buck the trend -- I'd suggest that it would be very interesting to examine exactly what these countries are doing).
So comparing 'month to prior month' isn't necessarily useful for covid -- you really have to compare infectious-wave with the closest prior infectious wave given the season.
Thus it looks like vaccination greatly reduces pressure on the health service. And that is the difference vaccine has made.
A second follow up post as I thought I'd run the figures.
For the week ending the 28th May I get a total of 21630 resulting in a daily average of 3090. It may be that when he produced his video there were some still waiting to be added.
Now to compare oranges to oranges, the same 7 day period in 2020 gives a total of 11802 with the daily average sitting at just 1686.
Jumping to the second part of the chart, hospitalisations after 10 days, we have a total of 3240 for the 7 days up to June 7th or a daily average of approx 463. I have no idea where the 108 daily average in his chart came from.
For the same period in 2020 we have a total of 1517 hospitalisations which gives a daily average of 217.
The conclusion reached by using the same period in 2020 with no vaccine compared to that used in 2021 is that without a vaccine we had 1 hospitalisation per 7.78 confirmed cases compared to 1 hospitalisation per 6.68 confirmed cases with the vaccine.
This it looks like vaccination has slightly increased pressure on the health service; and that is the difference the vaccine has made.
Data source: https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/healthcare
Thus it looks like vaccination greatly reduces pressure on the health service. And that is the difference vaccine has made.
A second follow up post as I thought I'd run the figures.
For the week ending the 28th May I get a total of 21630 resulting in a daily average of 3090. It may be that when he produced his video there were some still waiting to be added.
Now to compare oranges to oranges, the same 7 day period in 2020 gives a total of 11802 with the daily average sitting at just 1686.
Jumping to the second part of the chart, hospitalisations after 10 days, we have a total of 3240 for the 7 days up to June 7th or a daily average of approx 463. I have no idea where the 108 daily average in his chart came from.
For the same period in 2020 we have a total of 1517 hospitalisations which gives a daily average of 217.
The conclusion reached by using the same period in 2020 with no vaccine compared to that used in 2021 is that without a vaccine we had 1 hospitalisation per 7.78 confirmed cases compared to 1 hospitalisation per 6.68 confirmed cases with the vaccine.
This it looks like vaccination has slightly increased pressure on the health service; and that is the difference the vaccine has made.
Data source: https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/healthcare
I'd note that the problem we have is that mass vaccination has massively increased the speed of the virus' vaccine escape (as a result of there now being massive selective pressure for evolution to occur).
So our journey has been from vaccines offering protection (spring) to vaccines offering some protection, perhaps (summer). It is very likely that the vaccines will offer no protection by this coming winter, resulting in hospitalisation and death rates for the vulnerable returning to where they were in the spring 2020 wave. Ie, mass vaccination will have ended up killing people, because there have been few lives saved in the non-vulnerable group in the period where vaccines did provide some benefit.
The worst case scenario is that we get some kind of enhanced disease in the vaccinated. We've not seen this yet, but that's to be expected because ADE type effects usually take at least 6-12 months to appear. I wonder if the increased hospitalisation rate you suggest are the first signs of ADE (I've not gone through your data so take it at face value)?
I'd note as an aside that ADE has been seen in every coronavirus vaccine ever tried that was effective at reducing disease immediately after vaccination -- except for the covid-19 vaccines, so far.
@amanuensis I'd welcome your inspection although the data is straight from the NHS website spreadsheet - only the calculations are mine.
I note that deaths amongst people without comorbities remain in the sub 10 per week and in many weeks zero therefore making it very hard to judge the success or otherwise of the vaccine on the otherwise healthy.
I also note that the figures for hospitalisation do not differentiate between someone who may simply have been admitted for observation and someone who ends up in ICU.
@amanuensis If we use the usual suspects' favourite method of 'sexing' up the stats, my analysis of the data appears to indicate a 15% increase in the hospitalisation:infection ratio now that a vaccine has been rolled out compared to the same period last year. I take on board your wave hypothesis.
Robert W Malone who is seen by many (including himself) as helping to create mRNA vaccines, considers the issue of vaccinated people in Europe contracting Covid. It is worrying him "quite a bit".
