Is Boris so stupid he has not noticed the recent peak in omicron?
No, he's not so stupid. Probably disappointed.
I actually think this is a very temporary hiatus, poss due to local saturation, for example, in London, so it will pick up again, but the rumours that Omicron is milder are not being quashed as data arises, it is becoming a firm observation, it seems to start in the bronchial tubes and it rapidly turns into a cold, our super-stupid ministers are finding it very hard to accept that Omicron is not particularly sinister.
He might be wise enough to turn a blind eye to statistics like that, God willing.
Wishful thinking here......
That drop is nothing more than weekend reporting dip.
It happened every week for the last 18 months.
Have a look at the cases, by day of specimen. Over 100K on 15th Dec.
Currently taking about 5 elapsed days to get a representative number for date.
Wishful thinking here......
Have a look at the cases, by day of specimen. Over 100K on 15th Dec.
It was 7,000 fewer the day after.
Need to see a sustained change (hoping for) in direction, using the 7-day average. Daily numbers are going to be quite flaky, as there is big demand for PCR tests leading to delays in processing.
It's credible that confirmed cases figures won't actually track the trend of community infections.
Hospital admissions will be a better quide, but we're a bit too early to see the real impact yet.
My guess is that the peak will be mid to end of January.
109K and counting for the 20th Dec.
It will continue to climb for some time. Let's hope the impact is low.
109K and counting for the 20th Dec.
It will continue to climb for some time. Let's hope the impact is low.
The impact is VERY low, the original virus had an ifr of 1 in 400, dexamthesone halved that in in one cut, paxlovid and molnupiravid halved it again, even if you get the virus, the chance of dying was (before Omicron) below 1 in 1,000, and the chance of catching it was reduced by at least 70% with vaccine, so the chance of dying was below 1 in 2,000 and Omicron reduces this by 90%. There is far more chance you would die by being hit by a bus than from Omicron.Should we ban cars or busses? No, you have allowed your faculties to be diminished due to a prior belief. There is an old saying, when you are in a hole quit digging. It's time for you to quit digging. We're 90% vaxxed and the virus has got mild, there is no need to be so silly, my advice: wise up.
Wishful thinking here......
Perhaps, but it is not wishful to say an Omicron "case" rarely amount to more than a snotty nose or worst case a sore throat. That's how it really is. Exaggeration has been a huge problem from the start.
Nothing wrong with wishful thinking as an individual.
It's not a good basis for public health planning though.
There is positive news on omicron severity with the Imperial College Study, but it is somewhat provisional and only derives from a relatively small number of admissions, with infections dominated by younger people. There is nothing yet relating to severe illness.
Optimism on this front can be of some comfort to individuals, but not necessarily from a health care planning perspective. If we take the ~50% reduced risk of hospitalisation as an assumption, then we need to consider the actual number of cases to estimate the number of admissions.
Factors are :
severity of disease (better visibility of this will come and will need to be at the resolution of hospital-bed-days/infection.
transmissibility : many times higher than delta, as evidenced by the short doubling times, within an anti-body rich population
vaccine protection : lower than delta somewhat mitigated by boosters
Caution applied (NPI) : much of the population is taking precautions, regardless of the government dithering. Will news of lower severity reduce population precautions and make the situation worse?
XMAS/NY effect : Bound to give infections a boost.
Can you imagine Boris trying to consider all this without passing out from confusion? It is all beyond his capability and he needs proper advice, which he won't get from his right wing party faction.
We should all hope that omicron is the highly transmissible, trivial disease that will out-compete delta and give immunity to any subsequent variant. I certainly do, but I'm not betting on it yet.
Nothing wrong with wishful thinking as an individual.
It's not a good basis for public health planning though.
Neither is exaggeration.
Wishful thinking here......
That drop is nothing more than weekend reporting dip.
It happened every week for the last 18 months.
Have a look at the cases, by day of specimen. Over 100K on 15th Dec.
Currently taking about 5 elapsed days to get a representative number for date.
so you were wrong...
It would be nice if you would say so, as Neil Ferguson has:
https://dailysceptic.org/2022/01/04/even-professor-lockdown-admits-omicron-plateauing/
Why would TTT say he/she was wrong when they were not.
Can't understand what you think is wrong about saying the case rates would be rising for a while. The statement you objected to was made on 21 December. Clearly they have done so.
Now on 4 January, you think it was wrong to say they would rise for a while. Since 21 December, the national rate has risen consistently and will continue to do so for some time.
If you consider that London is starting to plateau in a week or so, that would be good. BUT it hasn't happened yet and London is about a week ahead of the rest of the country.
So look for a nationwide peak around 20 January, as a best guess.
