Lockdown is going to bankrupt all of us and our descendants and is unlikely at this point to slow or halt viral circulation as the genie is out of the bottle. What the current situation boils down to is this: is economic meltdown a price worth paying to halt or delay what is already amongst us?
Tom Jefferson and Carl Heneghan, Centre for Evidence-Based Medicine, March 30th 2020
This is probably the most significant ‘known unknown’ when it comes to trying to understand the crisis and work out how best to respond. Simply put, if the Imperial College modelling by Professor Neil Ferguson and his team is correct and only 3-5% of the UK population has been infected, that’s a powerful argument for prolonging the lockdown. If we start relaxing social distancing measures, tens of millions of people will become infected, the NHS will quickly be overwhelmed and hundreds of thousands will die. This was the assumption built into the March 16th model which estimated the death toll at 510,000 if we took no precautions, 250,000 if we followed a mitigation strategy and 20,000 if we moved to a suppression strategy. In effect, the lockdown is preventing 230,000 unnecessary deaths, although that’s an underestimate if Professor Ferguson’s model is right because his 250,000 figure assumed that all those requiring critical hospital care would receive it when, in fact, the demand for critical care in the mitigation scenario would be eight times greater than the NHS’s emergency surge capacity. And even if we inflate that 250,000 to allow for this, that still doesn’t account for the total number of deaths that pursuing a mitigation strategy would result in because it doesn’t include the increase in the number of people dying from other diseases because the NHS would be overwhelmed.
But what if Professor Ferguson has underestimated the number of people who’ve been infected? A paper written by a team of scientists led by Professor Sunetra Gupta at Oxford University published on March 24th included a range of estimates of the percentage of the UK population that has already been infected, one putting it as high as 68%. (This was widely reported as a claim that half the UK population may have already been infected.) If that’s true, it suggests we’re well on our way to acquiring herd immunity and if we end the lockdown tomorrow the NHS will be able to cope, particularly as it has over 2,000 vacant intensive care beds compared to about 800 before the crisis. As of April 13th, 290,720 UK citizens have had swab tests, of which 88,621 were positive, or about 30%. True, this isn’t a representative sample, but against that some of the people tested will have been negative because they’ve already had it. In general, the fact that only a small minority of the population has been presenting with symptoms doesn’t mean a majority haven’t been infected because data out of China suggests four-fifths of those who get COVID-19 are asymptomatic. (Patrick Vallance, Chief Scientific Advisor to the British Government, thinks the real figure is likely to be closer to 30%.)
The Oxford paper was criticised on the grounds that many of the assumptions made by Professor Gupta were “speculative” and had no “empirical justification”, but the same is true of the Imperial model. The FT’s Jemima Kelly said Oxford’s research should be taken with a large dose of salt because it was “not yet peer reviewed”, but Imperial’s paper hasn’t been peer reviewed either. As John Ioannidis, professor in disease prevention at Stanford University, has pointed out, some of the major assumptions and estimates that are built into the Imperial model “seem to be substantially inflated”. But others are much more sceptical, such as Gregory Cochran, who argues that half the UK population cannot possibly have been infected since, if they had, you’d expect the percentage of people testing positive after being swabbed to be far higher. What if they’ve already had it and flushed it out of their systems? Cochran thinks that’s implausible because the virus is so new.
One of the reasons it’s so important to accurately gauge how many people have been infected is because without knowing that we don’t know what the infection fatality rate (IFR) is. That’s different to the case fatality rate (CFR), which is the number of people who’ve tested positive divided by the number of deaths. The CFR varies enormously from country to country. In Italy, for instance, it’s 11%, while in Germany its 0.79%. In Iceland, which has carried out more testing per capita than any other country (it only has a population of 364,260) it’s 0.2%, just above seasonal influenza. In the UK, the CFR is around 9%. But it’s a safe bet that the IFR, whatever it turns out to be, will be significantly lower than the CFR. If it turns out that 30% of the UK population has been infected and 20,000 people end up dying, that’s an IFR of 0.12%, or just above the IFR of seasonal flue. Knowing the IFR matters because we won’t know how much demand there’ll be for critical care in the NHS if we relax the social distancing measures until we know both what percentage of the population has been infected and what the IFR is. We should start to build up a more accurate picture of both once we start doing large scale serological testing – something like an opinion poll, i.e., a large, nationally representative sample of the UK population. A team at the University of Bonn tested a randomised sample of 1,000 residents of the town of Gangelt in the north-west of the country, one of the epicentres of the outbreak in Germany, and found that 15% either were or had been infected, yielding an IFR of 0.37%. For what it’s worth, Oxford’s Centre For Evidence-Based Medicine (CEBM) estimates the IFR to be between 0.1% and 0.26%.
In the US, research released on April 17th by Dr Ioannidis of Stanford University on actual infection rates in Santa Clara county using a serology approach to test for antibodies on over 3,300 residents suggests that the number of people actually infected is a staggering 50 – 85 times higher than the 956 cases that have been documented (see video link below and the research here). As he goes on to explain, this would make the fatality rate “in the same ballpark as seasonal influenza”. A second report, covering Los Angeles County, was released on April 19th with similar findings, with actual infection rates estimated at 28-55 times higher than the 7,994 documented cases.
One note of caution: we don’t know for sure that people who’ve had COVID-19 are immune, not in perpetuity. There is at least one instance of someone catching it twice – a Japanese woman, although she may have been immunocompromised. Even if you’ve had COVID-19 as a result of being exposed to SARS-CoV-2, coronaviruses have a nasty habit of mutating, so you could catch it for a second time from another strain that you’ve got no immunity to. However, cases of reinfection are extremely rare to date and when viruses do mutate they tend to become less deadly, not more. Why? Because more deadly strains kill off their hosts faster and hence are less successful at replicating themselves. As a rule, the most successful coronaviruses in evolutionary terms are the least harmful, like those associated with the common cold.
Further Reading
‘“Trump Is Right About the Coronavirus. The WHO Is Wrong,” Says Israeli Expert‘ by Oded Carmeli, Haaretz, March 21st 2020
‘Fundamental principles of epidemic spread highlight the immediate need for large-scale serological surveys to assess the stage of the SARS-CoV-2 epidemic‘, Sunetra Gupta et al, MedRxiv, March 24th 2020
‘Coronavirus may have infected half of UK population – Oxford study‘ by Clive Cookson, Financial Times, March 24th 2020
‘How deadly is the coronavirus? It’s still far from clear‘ by Dr John Lee, The Spectator, March 28th 2020
‘Covid-19 – The tipping point?‘, Tom Jefferson, Carl Heneghan, Centre for Evidence-Based Medicine, March 30th 2020
‘It’s very rare to catch Covid-19 twice‘, FullFact, March 31st 2020
‘How likely are you to die of coronavirus?‘ by Tom Chivers, UnHerd, April 1st 2020
‘Covid-19: four fifths of cases are asymptomatic, China figures indicate‘, British Medical Journal, April 2nd 2020
‘Coronavirus, Castiglione d’Adda is a case study: “70% of blood donors are positive”‘ by Monica Serra, La Stampa, April 2nd 2020
‘Population-level COVID-19 mortality risk for non-elderly individuals overall and for non-elderly individuals without underlying diseases in pandemic epicenters‘, John Ioannidis et al, medRxiv, April 8th 2020
‘Covid antibody test in German town shows 15 per cent infection rate‘ by Ross Clark, The Spectator, April 10th 2020
‘1-in-7 New Yorkers May Have Already Gotten Covid-19‘ by Justin Fox, Bloomberg, April 15th 2020
‘Has SARS-CoV-2 Fooled the Whole World?‘, Mikko Paunio, LockdownSceptics.org, April 16th 2020
‘COVID-19 Antibody Seroprevalence in Santa Clara County, California‘, John Ioannidis et al, medRixv, April 17th 2020
‘Stanford study suggests coronavirus is more widespread than realized‘ by Ross Clark, The Spectator, April 17th 2020
‘Global Covid-19 Case Fatality Rates‘ by Jason Oke and Carl Heneghan, CEBM, April 17th 2020
‘The end of exponential growth: The decline in the spread of coronavirus‘ by Issac Ben-Israel, The Times of Israel, April 19th 2020
‘Early results of antibody testing suggest number of COVID-19 infections far exceeds number of confirmed cases in Los Angeles County‘, University of Southern California and Los Angeles County Public Health Department, April 20th 2020
‘Getting a handle on asymptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infection‘, Daniel P Oran and Eric J Topol, Scripps Research, April 20th 2020
‘New York antibody study estimates 13.9% of residents have had the coronavirus, Gov. Cuomo says‘, CNBC, April 23rd 2020
Further Viewing
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And not just heart attacks.
Indeed. I have an awful feeling in the pit of my stomach about where this is going.
Nothing but dark clouds gathering and getting darker, as far as I can see.
Injecting a whole population with improperly tested spike proteins for vast profit, I mean what could go wrong?
They tried in 2009 with the Swine Flu ‘pandemic’. Back then the media was not entirely owned by the major corporations and so following the withdrawal of vaccines that had caused damage to a far smaller number than the Covid vaccines there was widely expressed and accepted outrage. This is from the International Business Times, 2009: “The government is expected to receive a bill of approximately £60 million, with each of the 60 victims expected to receive about £1 million each.
Peter Todd, a lawyer who represented many of the claimants, told the Sunday Times: “There has never been a case like this before. The victims of this vaccine have an incurable and lifelong condition and will require extensive medication.Following the swine flu outbreak of 2009, about 60 million people, most of them children, received the vaccine.
It was subsequently revealed that the vaccine, Pandemrix, can cause narcolepsy and cataplexy in about one in 16,000 people, and many more are expected to come forward with the symptoms.
Across Europe, more than 800 children are so far known to have been made ill by the vaccine.”
This incident was proclaimed the Scandal of the Century by John Snow in a Channel 4 news program and an enquiry was called into how the pharmaceutical industry had managed to have such influence over the WHO.
It was remembering this that made me very wary of this mRNA mass vaccination roll out, especially when they continually moved the goal posts as regards to the age groups recommended to received.
Why the silence in the media? Is it because the only people who might have learned from any enquiry that took place were those connected to big pharma and so set about buying up swathes of media outlets so as to widen their sphere of influence and control?
There are probably many of them who don’t want to admit that they made a mistake and took on an unnecessary risk – perhaps not even to themselves.
Actually they first tried this in the Swine Flu “epidemic” (it wasn’t swine flu) which maybe killed all of ONE person. See the Kennedy book on the evil Fauci and Gates. Fauci has been spinning up non-existent “epidemics” for 50 years, heedless of the effect on recipients. One of the great mass murderers of our time
It was clear that this important meeting would be swallowed by political drama such as Truss resigning – well not only was the morning news obsessed with Braverman’s resignation but now Truss has just announced her resignation too.
Thursday could be a red letter day provided enough MPs turn up and they are not hiding under their desks.
They won’t turn up!
The witch hunt of Aseem has already started in earnest!! Christopher Snowdon has done what I consider in my view is a paper thin, shabby, hit piece on this doctor, I have read it. Nothing in it! But global manslaughter and injury through coerced vaccine, well that there is a sub stack worth your time writing.
Those who may be proven wrong by this doctor are gunning for him. Their personal character reputations investments at stake. Guns cocked.
Good luck to this doctor!!
Christopher Snowdon is a turncoat “cafeteria libertarian” at best. He was against the first two lockdowns, until he switched sides and supported the third one, because reasons. So who got to him?
Don’t know who got to him?
but de
But definitely scraped the barrel.
Somebody said to me yesterday because you are not vaccinated you probably have killed someone. Incredible brainwashed. These turncoats are responsible for this.
As I say good luck to Aseem he is going to need a lot friends !
His written piece in Aseem scraping barrel but hopefully C Snowden will see there should be only one side, truth for people of which he is one!
I trust you gave the idiot that claimed you killed someone both barrels point blank.
Would you believe it was a vaccinated friend. She was saying that I was causing anti vax sentiment and people would less likely to have their children vaccinated with traditional ones because people like me were dangerous. I calmly and slowly explained it wasn’t a vaccine like those ones because they had been tested for at least ten years and that I had my children vaccinated with those. But she couldn’t see it and believed I would have a bigger covid viral load than the vaccinated and therefore pass it on more and that is when she said “you have probably killed people” I stayed calm because I can see she is convinced and frightened by the narrative and to be fair she will not know where else to find information and is very wary of going off piste from MSM. So I evidenced by explaining that there was staff with covid at work and I had not got it and last time I had it was a little cold and also that there are people injured and killed by the vaccine. Incredulously she had not seen any reports of that and would not look at anything I offered.
I am afraid people are clinging to this lie because the alternative is too scary for them. I just said calmly that it was all going to come out in the wash and that perhaps she could look out for it.
It was a very draining conversation, this is what Aseem is up against a wilful deafness. Best wishes
Any idea what is driving Chris Snowden? He has been highly supportive of the covid narrative throughout – dismissive of anti-lockdown comment and any questioning of the efficacy and safety of the injections. Is it simply that the IEA, for whom he works, has been bribed, or even simply that he has been bribed?
All I know is that brave people will swallow their pride and admit they are wrong especially when so much is at stake. Let’s hope and pray there is that strength of character still present as it once presented itself.
Let’s hope so but I fear there will be some other drama such as Truss resigning and all the MPs will flock to the main chamber. Most of them are entirely culpable and so the cover up will be perhaps the most powerful and extensive ever known.
resignation Thursday then. How convenient.
And lo it came to pass. Truss resignation just in.
Bloody Hell Maria, not the red letter day day I’d hoped for. Someone really doesn’t want the truth about the injections to become common knowledge. Do you have a tip for the 2.45 at Haydock Park? My money is on Clown Tyrant Returns.
The globalists and the remoaners will never forgive him and us for Brexit. Hence lockdown, loss of liberty and theft of money from the world populations siphoned off and realised as now REAL money in volts of the cabal. They have made a fortune!!!!so easy for them to ride out the storm they have created. And remember cabal member Fauci, said there would be a pandemic in the last year of Trump, he knew!! Their punishment of us who they consider the unwashed will continue unless more of us stand up for ourselves. My TIP therefore is If Boris returns he is being allowed to, which means he has sold his soul further to the globalists devils. And will rob US of more of our money to send to Zelensky, to be siphoned off to the cabal volts as Boris is hoping he will get his cut one day. Watch out for more green screen vogue photo shoots of the ‘love in’ that is Boris and Zelensky, que the earnest acting faces.
To conclude my biggest tip is for true conservative MPs to fight your corner like you have never done before. Or be cowards.
Things that make you go hmmm…
This weeked in Paris a 41-year old singer suffered cardiac arrest during his performance and died.
This weeked in Madrid a 46-year old magician suffered a heart attack during his performance and died later in hospital.
Looks like we’ve moved on from sportspeople to entertainment. Sure it could be coincidence, but it is a little bizarre, to say the least.
This week’s fun fact: The weekly death figures are published by the Dutch ONS, Statistics Netherlands, on Fridays. They should appear on the government corona dashboard the same day, but often don’t, usually when the number is trending high (hence the figure’s been posted late pretty much most of the summer).
Deaths have been elevated/excess since March (4th vaxx for over 60s started end of Feb 2022).
The number finally hit the ‘expected’ deaths in the week of 12 – 18 September (imo with some fiddling – public attention on excess deaths was quite high at that time, very convenient). In any event, in the subsequent 3 weeks deaths have been excess (not just elevated) again. Only a swivel-eyed, loony-tune, anti-vax conspiracy nut-job would point out that the newest jabathon started on Monday 19 September.
But yeah, sure, another coinky-dinky.
All I’d take from that is that media outlets have been told to stop reporting sportspeople having heart attacks, which leaves reports of other people such as entertainers.
Josephine Melville actor RIP
The narrative has collapsed faster than formerly healthy young athletes on the field after being jabbed.
It’s good that he’s apparently making progress with it all. Evidently, he’s focusing on his speciality – which is understandable, but is it not likely that there is a much broader spectrum of damages caused by the novel “vaccine”?
Delving into the links suggested, it appeared that this one is better than the Twitter one: https://rumble.com/v1ojedq-freeman-interviews-dr-aseem-malhotra.html
Thanks. That’s the full video of the conversation that came out during today I think.
Good luck to Dr Malhotra. Isn’t it odd to find so few medical folk sticking their heads above the parapet? Not really. They’ve been bag carriers/ yes men for the pharmafia for so long that suddenly objecting to the latest horrific tightening of the ratchet would expose their prior laxity and total lack of principles over decades.
I remember working in telesales in the 80s trying to get GPs to book a meeting with a drugs Pharma rep. A voucher for M&S was offered as an incentive. A significant % would always ask ‘How much is the voucher for?’ They weren’t interested in anything else. (It wasn’t a paltry amount)
Imagine what it’s like now and how many Doctors have literally sold their souls, voucher by voucher, conference trip by conference trip, bung by bung and other not so subtle bribes. They’re in too deep to say a word.
Pharmafia, I may have to use that one myself.
The brilliant Dr Peter McCullogh agrees…
Dr Peter McCullough: “Before the Covid jabs, 4 in a million Myocarditis cases, afterwards, 25,000 in a million….Myocarditis at this point in time is due to the Covid jabs until proven otherwise.”
..and if it’s good enough for him…….
Well done to Aseem Malhotra; a brave and decent man. If only there were more like him.
If the first goal is to stop these shots as fast as possible, this is a great development. Now it will take many more doctors who previously endorsed the jabs to say things like this, but every new convert willing to speak publicly helps the effort. When one comes forward, it might embolden others to come forward. Then again, once these people are attacked and have their licenses revoked, maybe we get the opposite effect? Still, we need a lot more whistleblowers to come forward. The right one – with the “right stuff” – could make all the difference.
Fat chance.
They have won and won’t forego their profits or face any liability.
They just achieved what they were always after and what was the sole reason for the poisoning of children. https://stevekirsch.substack.com/p/acip-committee-will-likely-add-the
Does the same apply in other countries?
I know I shouldn’t but I still watch Match of the Day (I fast forward through Lineker & any kneeling). Last season during the Autumn there was invariably an ‘incident in the crowd’ at virtually every match. Trevor Sinclair got sacked for questioning in on Sky. This season I’ve not heard of a single incident.
Does anyone know if anyone has logged this information.
A lovely fellow dog walker friend of ours died of a sudden massive heart attack this week leaving a loving wife, daughter and dog. He’d had all his Covid jabs. My best friend’s best friend died out of the blue two weeks ago leaving 3 kids and a wife. He was a fit and healthy ‘boosted’ 51 year old. The list is becoming endless. People need to hang for this.
Just sent letter to my MP via email. Presume I’ll receive the usual brick wall reply if any. But at least I’ve made a nuisance of myself!
There is no point in my contacting my MP as she’s SNP, a brain tumour survivor and committed NHS lover. We have no idea what she does, where or when she does it and how often she attends Westminster. She got her seat by 145 votes but isn’t active in trying to keep it – at least not round where we live.
In my case, no family history of heart problems, triple vaxd in 2021, life saving pacemaker installed last Monday. Immuno suppressed and high risk? Yes, but I’m only 53 and my heart was ticking along quite happily until…
Sorry to hear your troubles in health since as you say. Best wishes.