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Do Online Opinion Polls Overestimate Public Support For Covid Restrictions?

by Toby Young
29 November 2021 7:00 AM

We’re publishing an original essay today by regular contributor Mike Hearn about the problem of ‘pro-social bias’ in online opinion polls. What this means is that the huge public support for the Covid restrictions revealed in opinion polls for YouGov and others is likely to be overstated. Here is an extract:

Online panel polling solves the problem of low phone response rates but introduces a new problem: the sort of people who answer surveys aren’t normal. People who answer an endless stream of surveys for tiny pocket-money sized rewards are especially not normal, and thus aren’t representative of the general public. All online panel surveys face this problem and thus pollsters compete on how well they adjust the resulting answers to match what the ‘real’ public would say. One reason elections and referendums are useful for polling agencies is they provide a form of ground truth against which their models can be calibrated. Those calibrations are then used to correct other types of survey response too.

A major source of problems is what’s known as ‘volunteering bias’, and the closely related ‘pro-social bias’. Not surprisingly, the sort of people who volunteer to answer polls are much more likely to say they volunteer for other things too than the average member of the general population. This effect is especially pronounced for anything that might be described as a ‘civic duty’. While these are classically considered positive traits, it’s easy to see how an unusually strong belief in civic duty and the value of community volunteering could lead to a strong dislike for people who do not volunteer to do their ‘civic duty’, e.g. by refusing to get vaccinated, disagreeing with community-oriented narratives, and so on.

In 2009 Abraham et al showed that Gallup poll questions about whether you volunteer in your local community had implausibly risen from 26% in 1977 to a whopping 46% in 1991. This rate varied drastically from the rates reported by the U.S. census agency: in 2002 the census reported that 28% of American adults volunteered.

Worth reading in full.

Tags: Opinion PollsPro-Social BiasYouGov

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100 Comments
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huxleypiggles
huxleypiggles
2 years ago

There are a number of very serious issues in this statement.

1. The courts and Judges have been bought so the chances of successful litigation are remote.

2. This government statement is absolutely chock full of blatant lies:

“Even though the COVID-19 vaccines have been developed at pace, at no point and at no stage of development has safety been bypassed. These vaccines have satisfied, in full, all the necessary requirements for safety, effectiveness and quality.”

“The benefits of the COVID-19 vaccines rollout have been demonstrated in terms of public health and allowing the gradual and safe removal of restrictions on everyday life over the past 18 months.”

So let’s not assume this will open the floodgates. I am sure some brave people will have a go but they will not receive a proper hearing and some escape clause will facilitate Pfisser’s walking away without guilt.

This is just a sop. Will any cases even get to court?

Last edited 2 years ago by huxleypiggles
234
-7
SomersetHoops
SomersetHoops
2 years ago
Reply to  huxleypiggles

It seems you have not researched the information about how the testing was fiddled and how the Pharma companies made lying claims that were not tested until we found out as a result of the data that they were not true for the vaccines. Safety was compromised quite deliberately and if our government has indemnified these companies against that they have not acted in our best interests.

22
-3
huxleypiggles
huxleypiggles
2 years ago
Reply to  SomersetHoops

“It seems you have not researched the information about how the testing was fiddled”

You hard faced, ignorant sod.

Last edited 2 years ago by huxleypiggles
2
-2
DevonBlueBoy
DevonBlueBoy
2 years ago
Reply to  huxleypiggles

Get to court? We all know there’s not a cat in hell’s chance of that happening.

11
0
JohnK
JohnK
2 years ago

If that is true, the Treasury can expect quite a few real cases for damages in due course to shell out for, if they are acting as insurers for the manufacturers, or the NHS, in effect. It will be interesting to see whether any victims succeed in suing for damages via the County Courts, as one does if injured by anything else – such as a physical injury caused on the road (I am an experienced litigant that way, unfortunately). It would vary a lot on individual circumstances, not necessarily limited to a financial cap. I suggest that dealing with an experienced legal firm that handles injury cases.

71
0
JaneDoeNL
JaneDoeNL
2 years ago

Governments all over the world better get on the ball, sharpish. They need to find grounds to repudiate the contracts with pfisser/murderna. Let’s face it, seeing as barely anyone on the planet has seen the actual, unredacted contracts, the governments can make up their own. Let pfisser/murderna prove which ones are the real ones 😉

In any event, fraud and misrepresentation are a good starting point. “Safe and effective” – a blatant lie, as only *now*, 2 years in are pfisser/murderna starting to have a look-see at possible adverse events like the odd dose of ‘mild’ myocarditis and what have you. They have been stating categorically for 2 years that there were no or only very rare side effects – lies, lies, lies. Myocarditis concerns were raised by the US and Israeli militaries back in April 2021 – a year and a half before the producers looked into this surely classifies as criminal negligence. Some things cannot be excluded by contract, and contracts can be voided as being against the public interest.

The UK needs to watch out, there’s going to be some forum shopping going on and countries that used AZ will probably be trying to get the UK taxpayer to foot the bill for the needle and the damage done. The pharma companies fleeced the taxpayer once, do not let them do it again. Let them pay the bill with their ill-gotten gains.

159
0
huxleypiggles
huxleypiggles
2 years ago
Reply to  JaneDoeNL

I absolutely agree Jane. The fact that the pharma companies have told lies from the start means they have invalidated their contracts and they have definitely acted against the public good.

It is certainly not a legal or moral right that the UK taxpayers should have to pick up the bill for the pharma industry’s complicity in untold personal damages and the wilful deaths of thousands, or possibly millions of people. They have no defence and they bloody well know it.

107
-4
The old bat
The old bat
2 years ago
Reply to  JaneDoeNL

How long do you think it will be before we have tv and radio ads saying “Have YOU been damaged by the covid vaccine?” Not long, I reckon.

77
0
JohnK
JohnK
2 years ago
Reply to  The old bat

It would be revealing if one spotted which channels carry adverts like that, wouldn’t it, if you cross review who funds them?

27
0
huxleypiggles
huxleypiggles
2 years ago
Reply to  The old bat

You are an optimist T o b.

20
-6
BurlingtonBertie
BurlingtonBertie
2 years ago
Reply to  JaneDoeNL

Fraud removes all indemnity.
That is why so many wise heads are looking into finding indisputable evidence of fraud.

23
0
barrososBuboes
barrososBuboes
2 years ago

Are individual ministers of government and members of Sage protected from prosecution ?

64
0
JohnK
JohnK
2 years ago
Reply to  barrososBuboes

It might depend on exactly where they said it, i.e. inside Parliament or somewhere else.

27
0
TheGreenAcres
TheGreenAcres
2 years ago

If Alex Jones has just had to pay out $1.4bn in total (by my reckoning) for his obnoxious and highly upsetting false claims about the dead victims of Sandy Hook; what then is an appropriate amount for Bourla, Von Der Leyden, Johnson, Handcock, Zahawi, Javid, Gove, Sturgeon, Drakeford, Sridhar, Whitty, Vallance, Van Tan, Piers Morgan etc for their false claims that resulted in life changing injuries and deaths to thousands??

112
-7
huxleypiggles
huxleypiggles
2 years ago

A clue to the government’s position lies within this statement:

“The benefits of the COVID-19 vaccines rollout have been demonstrated in terms of public health and allowing the gradual and safe removal of restrictions on everyday life over the past 18 months.”

Clearly the criminals currently running this country (in to the ground) are effectively going to back the pharma companies.

These so-called “vaccines” have definitely shown their benefits to public health and they are all negative. The “removal of restrictions” that should never have been imposed but which supported the evil scam.

“In August 2021, amendments to the Human Medicines Regulations 2012 were made to support the rollout of COVID-19 vaccines…”

That’s without doubt NOT something to be proud of and certainly condemns those in charge at the time and by God are they facing a long and hefty charge sheet. So if anybody is up for this momentous challenge I wish them well and I will be happy to drop a few bob in any campaign fund.

Last edited 2 years ago by huxleypiggles
92
-5
JohnK
JohnK
2 years ago
Reply to  huxleypiggles

We’d all be dropping a few bob into it, via taxation, unfortunately. Normally, when someone is sued for causing some trouble or other, and is insured, it’s the rest of the insurer’s customers that pick up the tab via their premiums, when the insurer has to settle up with the claimant.

22
0
The old bat
The old bat
2 years ago

Oh my god, the lies! Para 2 is unbelievable in its confident affirmation, which in fact is easily disproved. I despair. Black really is white and 2 +2 = 5.
Who writes this rubbish?

73
0
blunt instrument
blunt instrument
2 years ago
Reply to  The old bat

Pfizer et al.

25
0
hicksyalex
hicksyalex
2 years ago

Please take the time to sign the petition, let’s get this to debate.

18
0
blunt instrument
blunt instrument
2 years ago

So they’re allowing it because (1) it’s another way to bleed taxpayers dry, and (2) they can use it to undermine one argument against compulsory jabs, namely that we’ve zero comeback if we’re harmed.

31
0
Freddy Boy
Freddy Boy
2 years ago

Compensation with our own money ! Dirty Dirty F- – – ers, my internal vitriol knows no bounds for these absolute scum bags !!!…

43
0
MikeAustin
MikeAustin
2 years ago

Let me get this right:

  1. The government are our servants here to protect us and paid by us
  2. The government have indemnified known criminal corporations against claims from damage caused by their products
  3. The government instituted persuasion, coercion and threats so that people took these products
  4. The government says the people may sue the corporations but will foot the bill out of our tax payments
  5. The government will have to defend the corporations, at our expense, as they have no reason to defend themselves
  6. The people pay for the both the sums awarded and the defence against paying those sums

Did I miss anything?

52
0
JohnK
JohnK
2 years ago
Reply to  MikeAustin

There will be your legal expenses – solicitors, barristers, specialists etc. If you succeed, the other side, that is to say, you and others will be ordered to settle up for that lot as well.

17
0
MikeAustin
MikeAustin
2 years ago
Reply to  JohnK

Yes, we can add that to the bill. After all, we are headed towards, “You will have nothing and you will be happy“. We can at least see how the first part of that is going to work.

6
0
DevonBlueBoy
DevonBlueBoy
2 years ago
Reply to  MikeAustin

Putting it like that, it all seems so logical – but still f***ing outrageous

6
0
Judy Watson
Judy Watson
2 years ago

As I see due to the mix n’ match of various jabs, anyone persuing a claim will be told ‘how do you know it is our vaccine that caused the damage?’ I knew it would be a get out clause when Pfizer and Moderna said they could be swapped around.

33
0
huxleypiggles
huxleypiggles
2 years ago
Reply to  Judy Watson

Where have you been Judy?

Good to see you posting again.

10
-1
DevonBlueBoy
DevonBlueBoy
2 years ago
Reply to  Judy Watson

When you see the way Sarah Stock, Professor of Maternal and Fetal Health at Edinburgh University, denies the damage caused by the jabs you can rate the chances of Joe (or Josephine) Soap proving their case is absolutely zero. Check out the current HART newsletter for full details. Apologies but I cannot copy n paste the link.

7
0
MikeAustin
MikeAustin
2 years ago
Reply to  Judy Watson

Professor Sukharit Bhakdi said in his Telegram channel that a report by Dr Michael Moritz was a ‘game changer’. Apparently, myocarditis caused by the injection is not accompanied by certain proteins that appear with myocarditis from other causes.

Both disease from SarsCov-2 and covid injections cause spike protein in the body. But in the case of natural infection, the so-called nucleocapsid protein is also produced. In a 76-year-old deceased man, the spike protein but no nucleocapsid protein could be detected in the heart, brain and endothelial cells (cells lining the small blood vessels). Thus, “vaccination” is established as the cause of the toxic proteins.

As long as there can be an autopsy (obviously, only in the case of a fatality!) there is an opportunity to prove the injection was to blame.

5
0
Human Resource 19510203
Human Resource 19510203
2 years ago

So people can sue but they pay the bill themselves through the tax system. No, thank you. Big pharma has misappropriated billions with its vaccines; big pharmacy can use those billions to compensate the injured and the families who lost loved ones.

19
0
RTSC
RTSC
2 years ago

” Even though the COVID-19 vaccines have been developed at pace, at no point and at no stage of development has safety been bypassed. These vaccines have satisfied, in full, all the necessary requirements for safety, effectiveness and quality.”

If that was the case, they’d have medium to long-term safety data.

They haven’t got any.

The extensive list of adverse effects has grown, month by month, because the population was used as the guinea-pigs.

The Government REFUSES to investigate the deaths, severe disabilities and now the excess deaths we are experiencing.

There isn’t a Court in the land who will find that these products are dangerous: far too many powerful people would be affected and the Establishment protects its own.

31
0
Amari
Amari
2 years ago

The government’s response is:
lie
lie
lie
lie
lie…

21
0
SomersetHoops
SomersetHoops
2 years ago

As we now know the Vaccine sellers fiddled the results of the pre-release tests and did not carry them out thoroughly particularly with regard to pregnant women. Whatever the deal with our government was, there must be a case against these big pharma companies for negligence.

17
0
RicklePickle
RicklePickle
2 years ago

The manufacturers will be fully liable for the bill if their safety studies are deemed to have been fraudulent which of course they clearly are.

9
0
JayBee
JayBee
2 years ago

https://metatron.substack.com/p/covid-vaccination-victims-file-criminal
The Swiss are starting to get the ball rolling.
A good overview and a powerful presentation and start.

5
0
Simon MacPhisto
Simon MacPhisto
2 years ago

Meanwhile, Hancock swans around in the jungle rather than languishing in jail. You literally could not make this stuff up.

10
0

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