The Times leads this morning with Chris Whitty’s comment at yesterday’s Government press conference that the trend in new infections is beginning to “flatten out”, with the death toll remaining below 800 for the fourth day in a row. Does this mean that when Dominic Raab announces later today that the the lockdown restrictions will remain in place for at least another three weeks – that’s the expectation, anyway – he will encourage some workers to return to work straight away? In Spain, people in manufacturing, construction and some services were allowed to return to work on Tuesday.
One reason to be pessimistic about the announcement is that if we are flattening the curve that’s not necessarily an argument for easing up on extreme social distancing measures. After all, won’t new infections start to climb again as soon as they’re relaxed? Professor Neil Ferguson, the Imperial College scientist whose modelling has influenced the Government’s decision-making, said on the Today programme this morning that we shouldn’t ease back on the lockdown until an extensive programme of testing and contact tracing is in place. He called for the creation of a “command and control centre” to oversee this and other aspects of managing the virus – something like the Department for Existing the European Union.
In Professor Ferguson’s March 16th paper – the one that frightened the Government into imposing the lockdown a week later – he and his team recommend keeping social distancing measures in place until a vaccine is available, which they warn will take “18 months or more”, and suggest that in the interim the most we can hope for is the “intermittent” lifting of some of the more extreme measures:
We show that intermittent social distancing – triggered by trends in disease surveillance – may allow interventions to be relaxed temporarily in relative short time windows, but measures will need to be reintroduced if or when case numbers rebound.
Neil Ferguson et al, ‘Impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) to reduce COVID- 19 mortality and healthcare demand‘, Imperial College COVID-19 Response Team, March 16th 2020
However, it may be that a scaling back of the lockdown doesn’t result in a resurgence of cases, meaning no need to do a reverse ferret. According to Major General (Res) Professor Isaac Ben-Israel, chairman of the Israeli Space Agency and the National Council for Research and Development, the head of the Security Studies program at Tel Aviv University, the epidemic in each country will last no longer than eight weeks, peaking in the sixth week. He has crunched the data across a number of countries and found that the rise and fall of new infections is the same in each one, provided you adjust for the different start times. “This is happening both in countries that have closed down like us and in those that have not closed until today like Sweden, every country no matter its response,” he told Arutz Sheva 7, the Israeli television news service. “The decline and rise occur according to the same timeline.”
Professor Ben-Israel, who has a PhD in Philosophy and a BSc in Physics and Mathematics from Tel Aviv University, said it was clear how the epidemic starts in each country and why infections begin to climb, but not clear why new infections always peak after six weeks and then start to decline. Nonetheless, he has enough confidence in his analysis to recommend that Israel abandon its lockdown and get everyone back to work within two weeks.
For what it’s worth, there’s an interesting comment from Caswell Bligh, a computer scientist, below ‘What percentage of the UK population has been infected?’ on this blog. His theory is that recent findings in parts of Germany and elsewhere that ~15% of the population has antibodies may not mean the remaining 85% of the population hasn’t been exposed to the virus. He speculates that some people may have a natural immunity and can therefore resist SARS-CoV-2 without having to develop antibodies, which might explain why so many people exposed to the virus are asymptomatic. It would also explain why some people, having been exposed once and not fallen ill, could then become re-infected. Bligh has created a model, based on this theory, that shows a population can reach stable herd immunity if just 15% test positive for the antibodies.
One of yesterday’s big stories was that Keir Starmer has demanded the publication of an exit strategy. This is an interesting intervention from the new Labour leader, suggesting his attack line from now on will be that the Government isn’t doing enough to help the economy, not that it’s done too little to suppress the spread of the virus. For the hawks in the Government who want to end the lockdown sooner rather than later – and for lockdown sceptics more generally – that’s helpful since it will give the Government the political cover it needs to start easing off on some of the extreme social distancing measures. Until now, there’s been a risk that Labour would attack the Government if it did that on the grounds that it was prioritising the economy over people’s lives. But it looks as though Keir Starmer, at least, isn’t planning to do that.
If you’re looking for scientific evidence to support the case for ending the lockdown, the ‘Facts about COVID-19‘ site is as invaluable as ever. Among the stories in its April 15th update is one from a Luxembourg paper reporting that Sweden’s mitigation strategy is working, with the new infection curve beginning to flatten. That’s also true of the number of daily deaths in Sweden, or was yesterday anyway. I’ll leave you with a graph showing the daily death toll in Sweden.
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He’s just got off the phone from Bill Gates and wearing his best scary face. Another liar to remember!
Of course it will be worse.. there was no pandemic.. see chart below
PS : Bill Gates in his ‘smiling video’ did actually say we’d take notice of the next scamdemic.. Targetting children.. Marburg maybe.. who knows.. but I’d put nothing past them.. they are not going to stop!
Oh, that video, the one with the angel Melinda smiling at his side?
Yes.. that’s the one Hux..
I’m looking forward to Billionairitis characterised by lump of lead poisoning.
Yes.. what a show that would be. I’d definitely get out the popcorn..;-)
It’s a smirking video: https://twitter.com/trevsayers/status/1470738944664952839?s=20&t=2dv12H47WJTLH_FdqpfcVA
Sorry Doug.. yes.. I should have said ‘smirking’ and I couldn’t place the link for it at the time too. Well done..
Western Society is being primed for Marxism and 2030 when ‘you WILL be Happy and OWN Nothing’
All being pushed on us courtesty of the WEF, The Rockerfeller Foundation, The Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, The IMF, The Tri-Lateral Commission, The Bilderberg Group, The Welcome Trust and many, many others
Yes, Putin’s Russia will be a pariah state, but will be free compared with the West!!
With 50% of countries currently under Western sanctions, the pariahs will pretty soon be the majority.
Add, Bank of International Settlements and Larry Fink.
“You will own nothing and be scared”
Tell me please – how have we come to this? And our government is in cahoots with these communists Little Me’s?
“The next pandemic could be far more difficult to handle than Covid was, and we all saw the damage that that pandemic caused.”
No, the damage was done by government policies and people like you Professor i.e. the lockdowns, the mind games and the jabs.
And I think many are cottoning on to that fact, which is why catastrophizing ‘Chicken Licken’ idiots like the above guy, trying their best to drum up some fear-induced hysteria again, will fail at every level. I mean, just to keep it brief and to the point, all it takes is to look around at the inconvenient facts of the ‘control group’ ( that’d be us, the unjabbed ) to see that we’re all still alive and kicking. Oh, and not to overlook good old Sweden, the other ‘control’, who nicely demonstrated that any restrictions imposed on the rest of the world did precisely Jack sh*t in terms of stopping a respiratory virus so were completely unnecessary to begin with. People such as Woolhouse just confirm to me time and again how somebody can be so accomplished academically and yet simultaneously so idiotic and ignorant. I now do not automatically respect people just because they have a fancy title or letters after their name.
Oh Mogs, get with the plan, we the UNJABBED owe our survival to the majority of good citizens who stood up to DO THE RIGHT THING.
eh!!!
From the author of ‘The year the world went mad’. Has someone had a word with him?
My thoughts exactly. Andrew Wakefield moment. Billy Bonus in the post.
Actually, I thought more of an Andrew Hill moment. You know, the turncoat Tess Lawrie called out for burying the excellent results of IVM all for a lump of grant cash. But yes, a Billy Bung on its way again with nobs on.
https://worldcouncilforhealth.org/multimedia/dear-andy-dr-tess-lawrie/
Absolutely correct WW, sorry for my error and it was Andrew Hill.
Don’t forget Uttar Pradesh, population 241 million…
https://expose-news.com/2022/08/13/the-miracle-not-heard-around-the-world/
Indeed, but just remember that a professorship is a position and not a qualification. I left academia nearly 20 years ago because helping the undergrads and doing quality research was clearly not the priority of the university. Climbing the greasy pole was all the majority of staff were interested in and virtually all the money was being funnelled into the medical faculty.
Dr Mike Yeadon has demolished the idea of respiratory pandemics so whatever Billy is planning it can’t be respiratory and it can’t be a pandemic.
“People such as Woolhouse just confirm to me time and again how somebody can be so accomplished academically and yet simultaneously so idiotic and ignorant.”
You are being overly kind to him. I think he knows he is being evilly disingenuous and not at all acting in good faith in spreading a false narrative, for whatever reason.
Well said Michael..
The universal adoption and promotion of those absurd new party lines in the context of that absurd and totally rigged inquiry racket have become another cockup or conspiracy question.
Oh dear. Another you are all going to die warning, that if you do as you are told you could live for ever. I don’t think so. Death is inevitability, get used to the idea.
Him and Greta should team up. Get them a sandwich board each, off to the city centre they go. What a pair of chuffing clowns!
He is right. Any above average flu season can be deadlier than covid.
“not the impression you get from listening to any of these scientists.”
not the impression you get from listening to any of these
scientists.….charlatans surely?
“even more deadly than Covid”
You mean, the fatality rate might creep up to an unacceptable 0.04% of cases, instead of 0.03%?
Obviously, a profound threat to our species.
A pandemic (if one happens in the future) will always be deadlier than no pandemic.
Because there was no pandemic.
But take a look at excess deaths SINCE THE JABS, kids!
In the two years 2020-2021, only one child aged 5-15 died of covid-19 without any pre-existing conditions or co-morbidities. That is 1 in 7.3 million!
Since the jabs, MHRA have reported 19 fatal outcomes for the ages 0-19 from the jab.
This is manslaughter – nay, childslaughter.
Got to stop the great unwashed going abroad on holidays – or even travelling around their own countries, haven’t they?! After all, they want to close most of our airports and prevent us using cars by 2030!! Scumbags! Classic novels like The Caves of Steel and Logan’s Run (or I am Legend!) don’t look so outlandish they way things are going!!
They use films, novels etc to prepare the plebs for what’s to come.. the a$$holes always put out their plans to absolve themselves of karma. The Simpsons are classic example of that.. they forecast 911.. pretty smart eh!
We’ve not had a pandemic for centuries, all this trouble stems from bioweapon research and profiteering. It’s a racket. Quite frankly those promoting this research and fear propaganda need to be locked in the Tower of London and kept there permanently for our safety.
The only good thing that might come out of this scandalous, wicked assault on the population is that the vaccine scam and associated damage to infants and children is now becoming clear to many, many more people.
“…the coronavirus outbreak, which killed at least 227,000 in the U.K”
Absolute and utter bunkum!
I was distributing the following cards for several months until mid-2022. They categorise deaths correctly following the ONS data up to the end of 2021
And further to this, because the deaths were largely among older folk, the total years of life lost amounts to just 467 complete lives!
Good one Mike..
The article goes on to quote Woolhouse as explaining that directors of public health, who were taking the lead on policy responses during the earlier stages of the pandemic, get their guidance from “watching the television and reading the papers”. So while we were implored to “Follow The Science”, it was really journalists running the show?!
Can Prof. Woolhouse supply any evidence whatsoever that the next pandemic will be deadlier than the last, or is he content to just sit there and guess? Turtle hats on everybody!
Guess, obviously. He literally said so.
He’s on the money, because gain-of-function work is improving all the time.
Billy has promised a “next pandemic,” so even though the last one was the Black Death 500 years ago we are going to suffer two in five years because 2020 plus 10 is the decade of the vaccines.
Ah yes.. the decade of vaccines.. accompanied of course by scamdemics just springing up out of nowhere..
He told the inquiry in London: “I hope this doesn’t sound too shocking, but on the scale of potential pandemics, Covid was not at the top and it was possibly quite far from the top.
Plain English version: Everything always turns out much more harmless than what I had previously imagined during one of my usual wild flights of fancy.
Since when does Being a fantasist with a tenuous grip on reality qualify people as governmnet advisors? Methinks a great to prepare for future ILI-pandemics would be – ASAP – to get rid of all these woolly-headed Woolhouses wielding computer simulations of their crazed state of mind.
^ ILI — Influenza-like Illness
The key qualification for a Government advisor is to be a fantasist with a tenuous grip on reality. That way you fit in perfectly with all the other tossers.
the coronavirus outbreak, which killed at least 227,000 in the U.K,
Something for all these Captain Correlations: So, at least 227,000 people in the UK died within four weeks of having a Sars-CoV2 PCR test. Shouldn’t we deduce that Sars-CoV2 PCR tests kill lots of people from that?
In other news, a fire insurance salesman has been seen lurking near buildings with a can of petrol and a lighter.
Surey TOF.. that would be arse-on..
Oh gosh …… even deadlier than 0.02% of the population who died of/with Covid ….. most of whom were already knocking on heaven’s door due to age, obesity or other co-morbidities.
I’m SOOOOOO scared.
Not.
“Professor Mark Woolhouse said the coronavirus outbreak, which killed at least 227,000 in the UK …”. What a liar! FOI requests have established that the number of people who have died from, not with, Covid in the UK is in the low tens of thousands.
“Next Pandemic Could be “Even Deadlier than Covid”
Someone should ask him what the Infection Fatality Ratio for Covid was. My latest understanding is 0.07% (less than 1 in 1,000), with a focus on the elderly, obese and chronically ill. “Even deadlier than that, Professor?”
Another bastard commie?
Oh, so not very deadly then.
Oh no, we prepared for flu, not covid, which is effing identical.
They need this as an excuse for casting the prepared pandemic plan into the bin in favour large-scale experimenting with perfectly random policies some non-expert (like the Chinese president) really badly wanted to have an effect on virus spread. Also, for keeping it binned as the grand social layman experiment is supposed to continue at the earliest possible opportunity.
That’s what I thought they are both supposed to be coronaviruses aren’t they? If of course you believe in viruses! Or are you going with Vernon Coleman’s theory that it was (still is) rebranded flu?
Why is it that brainless freaks like him always look like their going to explode if you don’t agree with them? Obviously his wage must depend on our capitulation
“Professor Mark Woolhouse said the coronavirus outbreak, which killed at least 227,000 in the U.K.”
Given there were no autopsies on the vast majority of those cases (and there has never been a test which identifies only Covid) we have no idea how many died “from Covid”
Britain prepared for a pandemic then threw away all that preparation when Covid came to out shores by initiating unscientific lockdowns, maskings and shutdowns of businesses. Next time I suggest we follow the well established protocol of protecting the vulnerable and letting everyone go about their business.
What a bellend. I recall a time when Professors offered evidence to support their views. This idiot needs to shut his arse and give his mouth a chance to connect with his brain.
“I’ve been getting a lot more money and sex with humans since we terrified everyone about a cold virus, please continue”
“The next pandemic could be far more difficult to handle than Covid was, and we all saw the damage that that pandemic caused.”
Er no, it was the Government response under your recommendations that caused the damage NOT “Covid”.
These people need shutting up (I know against free speech principles) and then locking up. They are causing so much damage still economically, socially and medically.
What pandemic?. You mean seasonal flu?. Just how stupid do these people think we are. No clapping for the NHS outside I turned the TV volume up and shut the windows when those lemmings trotted out. There’s non as funny as folk.
And since Covid, or whatever it was, was no more deadly than a bad bout of flu, it’ll be another false alarm. Honestly, these fearmongers can just F off!
Who is afraid of the big bad pandemic? It will huff and it will puff and it will give you more furlough.
Short version: academic uses inquiry as a platform to stimulate funding in his area of research.
“… which killed at least 227,000 in the U.K.,…” is a flat-out lie.”
Linked to below are the ONS’s numbers for England and Wales from Feb 2020 to Dec 2021 where Covid was listed as the only cause of death. Bear in mind that this includes both the vulnerable and the healthy. These figures are the result of an FOI. Unless I made an error when adding the rows for the different cohorts together, they total 6,183, 833 of which are under the age of 60. It wasn’t even as severe as a bad flu season. See for yourself.
https://www.ons.gov.uk/aboutus/transparencyandgovernance/freedomofinformationfoi/covid19deathsandautopsiesfeb2020todec2021