Contrary to popular understanding, Britain’s second wave of COVID-19 was less deadly than the first: although there were more deaths within 28 days of a positive test, age-adjusted excess mortality was lower.
One possible explanation is that fewer people were infected in the second wave (even though the infection fatality rate remained constant). However, data from the Coronavirus Infection Survey suggests that roughly the same number of people were infected in the two waves. About 7% of people had antibodies at the end of the first wave, and about 14% had antibodies toward the end of the second wave (before the vaccination program had gotten fully underway).
Incidentally, some people may have been infected without developing antibodies. I’m using the number who developed antibodies as a proxy for the total number who were infected in each wave.
Another possible explanation is that we became better at treating the illness. Evidence suggests that thousands of lives were saved by corticosteroids like dexamethasone, but these may not have been widely used in the first wave. Yet another explanation is simply that there were fewer frail elderly people alive at the beginning of the second wave, meaning that the average elderly person who became infected was less likely to die from the disease.
However, there’s possibly a fourth reason why the second wave was less deadly than the first, namely that care homes achieved a degree of focused protection.
In the first wave, a disproportionate number of those who died were care home residents. This is partly because elderly patients who’d caught the virus in hospital were discharged to care homes when they were still infectious, resulting in deadly outbreaks. Hence more effort was made to shield care home residents in the second wave.
According to the ONS, there were 27,079 excess deaths in care homes during the first wave, but only 1,335 during the second wave:
This finding is supported by two recent academic studies. One study, published in Environmental Research, found that the percentage of COVID-19 deaths among care home residents was lower in the second wave in eight out of 11 countries with available data, including the UK.
Another, unpublished study observed a major spike in excess mortality among care home residents last spring, but no increase during the final weeks of 2020.
While it’s too early to say exactly which factors explain the reduction in mortality between the two waves, the evidence presented here suggests that effective shielding of care home residents may have been a major contributor. Though it should be noted that care home occupancy was lower in the autumn and winter, which probably accounts for some of the disparity in excess deaths.
Perhaps if more attention had been paid to shielding in the first wave, Britain would have come through the pandemic with a lower death toll.
This post has been updated.
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What would these ”completely different set of circumstances” look like then? Do give us a clue, lady. This BS is so blatantly a strategy to mess with the minds of the British public and keep them waiting and wondering as we head into the winter months. Has ‘flu season’ been reinstated btw? Or has it been redefined as ‘Covid season’ for now and ever more? Because how many people have a box of flu tests at home or carried out as protocol if you go into hospital? It’ll be Covid World once more, you watch. So what this woman is alluding to I have no idea, but what I’m wondering is if she’d even pass the litmus test that any sane person should pass with flying colours, and tell us what a woman is.
Hosepipe ban, anyone?
Perhaps this is what she’s hinting at. Same old same old BBC bilge, which allows for the reintroduction of flu as a perceived ‘threat’, because we know they’ve got many flu jabs they need to use up and earn money on. But if that’s the case ( ‘case’ being the operative word here ) then do we now have LFT/PCR tests which supposedly detect flu? Or are they basically just banking on ”scaring the pants off” enough people to get them queuing up for their Jonestown jabs? Yeah, keep sucking up your daily dose of Kool-Aid and pledging your allegiance to the Covidian cult!
”Covid will “continue to surprise us”, England’s deputy chief medical officer has warned ahead of another tricky winter for the NHS.
Dr Thomas Waite says the disease does not yet behave in a seasonal way, making it less predictable than other winter illnesses.
He encourages anyone eligible for the free flu and/or Covid vaccine to get the jabs and protect their health.
Last year the flu vaccine stopped 25,000 people from being hospitalised.
But scientists estimate that last winter in England, flu still caused more than 14 thousand excess deaths and Covid caused more than ten thousand.”
https://www.bbc.com/news/health-66963982
What this disingenuous POS is saying is that she has been tipped the wink that another “pandemic” is on the way. She also knows that one of the most successful ways of disrupting society is to close schools. However, she has to present ‘reasonableness’ so states that closing schools is only an option.
The teaching unions now know that more than a couple of sniffles per class would provide hefty ammunition for an out brothers out.
Looks like everything is in place for the Davos Deviants.
Back in March 2020 there was an interview with a Korean COVID-19 expert and as well as the assertions that China controlled this well with strong restrictions, there was this answer about education.
Stephen Park (Interviewer): “In Korea the start of the school is being postponed, people are practicing social distancing, and the government even sends regular updates via texts. How well do you think this is all being handled?”
Professor Kim Woo-joo “On March 20th, a couple days ago, the prime minister made a special announcement that he strongly recommends social distancing. So religious facilities, places people hang out, like bars, and indoor gyms… From march 20 for 2 weeks, these 3 types of places were strongly recommended to shut down. But this is not mandatory. People who are over 50 or 60 are following these protocols well. But teens and those in their 20s are not, because for teens in Korea, their education is very important. Even if they are sick and have a fever, they have to go to school and academy. The school year was postponed for elementary, middle, and high school because of COVID-19, but in the evening kids go to academies. So even if the government pushed back school, kids will still go to academy to study at night. Since I checked last weekend 90% of academies are open. In Asia, the college you go to determines your future.”
So not only did the kids continue their education, even when infected, but they were taught, presumably by someone much older!!!
Evidence is at 25:11
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gAk7aX5hksU&t=1808s
You Need To Listen To This Leading COVID-19 Expert From South Korea | STAY CURIOUS #15
Also, notice that this Professor is a Covid expert and in the same month that the pandemic was declared. That’s pretty good going as I thought becoming an expert in something can take years, if not decades.
This Disease X keeps coming up, like we’re being primed for the WHO/IHR tyranny.
In a different time, before the covid terror, that would have sounded like a sensible statement that one never knows what one may encounter in the future. It would have sounded like a very innocuous hypothetical statement.
But, after the covid terror, anything other than a rejection of lockdowns sounds downright menacing, because now we know the establishment is capable of terrible things we never imagined them capable of.
“Key lessons have still not been learned.”
There was NO pandemic.
Yes, hux, but you’re forgetting one minor but integral detail for successfully existing in Clown World; facts don’t matter. haha..
https://twitter.com/CartlandDavid/status/1708916535916388753/photo/1
What she means is that if the WHO warns us of a possible threat, then we must close down again. Oh, hang on, the WHO ammendamant comes into enforce on 1st December- the one where they can take away you ‘rights’.
I pity the fool.
https://twitter.com/MrT/status/1707487247119835456
What a stupid man.
If the adults don’t tolerate a lockdown then the children won’t have to.
Seriously though, did this happen today? Is it open season for just taking the Mick and rubbing the jab injured and bereaved people’s noses in it? Another AZ stooge has been knighted.
https://twitter.com/CartlandDavid/status/1708917693498147263
Bearing in mind they knew coronie was 99% survivable in 2020, one has to wonder if they have any limits on what they will do given whichever circumstances they choose to manipulate?
https://www.kusi.com/carlsbad-school-district-parents-hold-parking-lot-protest-in-support-of-reopening-schools/
Lets not forget that excess deaths are currently significantly above normal and not a peep from MSM or Govt…
Stange innit?
You only need watch the first 1 or 2 mins of this clip about the increase in cardiac arrests in Victoria, Australia, which unfortunately includes an 8yr old girl ( who thankfully survived ) but no acknowledgement of the elephant in the room of course.
https://twitter.com/7NewsMelbourne/status/1708713774130311283
I know there are plenty more intelligent things to say, but for the love of God I wish these bloody people would stop peppering everything they say “y’know…” all the bloody time. I know they’re cretins beyond redemption but for God’s sake just STOP IT!! What do they think they sound like? I would do anything to hear intelligent, well read, articulate people in public office. (The Moggmeister blew it for other reasons).
When all else fails Covid returns
I’m seeing a huge increase in people posting on social media that they have covid. Like it’s a badge of honour. There’s even one in a group I’m in who took three days of tests before she got the positive she clearly desperately wanted. I can’t bring myself to send get well wishes.
It absolutely is a badge of honour. My (fully jabbed, whether that’s 3 or 4 I have no idea) SIL has recently posted a photo of herself on FB, just finishing a half marathon. Absolutely amazing she could complete such a thing, she says, given she had “Covid – The Sequel” JUST THREE WEEKS AGO! What a terrible deadly disease, that you can run 13 miles shortly afterwards looking perfectly healthy. Cue the usual replies – you poor thing, aren’t you brave, isn’t covid terrible etc etc. How many times will they have to “have” it before it stops being newsworthy I wonder? It will be around forever IMO, so there are going to be a lot of “sequels” to boast about.
In other News at the Tory conference, BBC Evan Davis interviewed a Tory over 15 minute cities saying they’re just about everything in one place and everything else is a conspiracy theory. It was around 17:30 today Radio 4. The Tory guy said how residents are concerned about their freedom of movement etc while not mentioning Agenda 2030 where all the information is.
Keegan is dreadful, shouldn’t be in charge of any portfolio and certainly not children or health.
‘Asked by the Telegraph whether schools should be classified as critical infrastructure so there is more parliamentary scrutiny ahead of any future closures’, please notice that she doesn’t answer that question. More parliamentary scrutiny would obviously be a good idea (if you still believed in the parliamentary process at all).
These people are not fit for purpose.
They obviously think that trashing the education, mental health and therefore life chances of an entire generation of school-children wasn’t comprehensive enough.
So they need the wriggle room to double-down.
EVIL BASTARDS.