A sensational science paper has blown holes in alarmist claims that global temperatures are surging. Just published results in Nature show “limited evidence” for a warming surge. “In most surface temperature time series, no change in the warming rate beyond the 1970s is detected despite the breaking record temperatures observed in 2023,” the paper says. Written by an international group of mathematicians and scientists, it is unlikely to be acknowledged in the mainstream media where general hysteria reigns over the anomalous 2023 experience. As we have seen, constant misinformation is published to scare the general public and this is exemplified by climate comedy-turn Jim ‘jail the deniers’ Dale forecasting almost daily Armageddon and exhorting people to “join up the dots”.
In science, one swallow does not make a summer and in climate science it is impossible to show a trend by picking on short periods or individual weather events. This paper is an excellent piece of climate science work since it takes the long statistical view and challenges the two-a penny clickbait alarmists looking for a headline on the BBC. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change is a biased body but it understands the importance of long-term climate trends by stating, much to the chagrin of Net Zero-promoting activists, that it can find little or no human involvement in most extreme weather events either in the past or in the likely immediate future. But these findings, along with the paper on the warming trend, are inconvenient to those promoting the unproven claim that humans control the climate thermostat by utilising hydrocarbons.
The paper is highly technical and mathematically-inclined readers can study the full workings out in the open access publication. It notes that global temperature datasets fluctuate due to short-term variability and this often creates the appearance of surges and slowdowns in warming. It is important to consider random noise caused by natural variation when investigating the recent pauses in temperature and the more recent “alleged warming acceleration”, it adds. In fact there have been a number of plausible explanations given for the recent spike, with attention focused on the massive Hunga Tonga submarine volcano adding 13% extra water vapour to the stratosphere, a strong El Niño and even the reduction in atmospheric particulates caused by recent changes in shipping vessel fuel. Several “changepoints” were used by the mathematicians and it was found that “a warming surge could not be reliably detected any time after 1970”.
While the focus was on whether there had been a continued acceleration in the rate of global warming, it was recognised how unusual the surface temperature anomalies were in 2023. Indeed they were, and it was widely argued that this showed the climate was breaking down, or in the silly words of the UN chief Antonio Guterres that the planet was “boiling”. Last year’s hysterics were useful for short-term alarmism but they help destroy the ‘settled’ science around CO2. If human-caused CO2 is responsible for the rise, why did the temperature pause from 1998-2012 when atmospheric levels of the gas were on the up. Does alarmism on the BBC and most other mainstream media only apply when the temperatures spikes upwards for a few months?
One of the key conclusions in the paper arises from considering two time series – 1970-2023 and 2013-2023. This of course includes the early 1970s when global cooling fears were all the rage and average temperatures were falling. Estimated temperature trends were said to be 0.019°C per year for the first time segment and 0.029°C for the second that includes the spike from last year. This 0.029°C estimated slope “falls far short” of an increase needed to point to a change in the warming trend in the recent past. This is because of short-term variability in the U.K. Met Office HadCRUT global database since 1970 and “uncertainty” of the 2012 changepoint. This uncertainty arises over speculation as to whether 2012 and the ending of the pause was a year marking an important change in the longer time series. ”The HadCRUT record is simply not long enough for the surge to be statistically detectable at this time,” they note.
Cliff Mass is the Professor of Atmospheric Science at the University of Washington. He has a golden rule of weather extremes: “The more extreme a climate or weather record is, the greater the contribution of natural variability, and the smaller the contribution of human-caused global warming.”
The mathematicians used changepoint statistical techniques which were designed to identify structural changes over time. Four global mean surface temperature records over 1850-2023 were used including HadCRUT. This of course is problematic since there is substantial evidence that these datasets hype the warming trend by their careless treatment of urban heat corruptions – the fact that urban areas become warmer through ongoing development. In addition, substantial retrospective adjustments are made, often cooling the past and warming the near present to increase the ‘trend’. Despite writing copiously about the 1998-2012 ‘pause’, the Met Office has now removed it from its own record by adding 30% retrospective warming. Perhaps the Met Office need not have worried, with the mathematicians noting that the pause was “not unusual” given the level of short-term variability present in the data. But these datasets are the best we have and nobody doubts that the planet has warmed a small amount over the last 200 years since the lifting of the little ice age. For want of anything better, using these datasets for scientific analysis is fair, although it could be suggested that overall warming is probably less than suggested by this paper.
Chris Morrison is the Daily Sceptic’s Environment Editor.
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”Climate change” is a matter of ideology, politics, fraud, grift and corruption.
No matter how many scientific papers are produced, it will require the removal of the Governments supporting it. In the US that might happen if Trump is elected; in the UK if Reform UK is elected with a working majority.
In Europe – no hope.
This interview by Neil Oliver with Christine Anderson MEP gives us hope.
wwwstopyoutubestopcom/watch?v=v-2V8z8_S8E
This is not a great scientific paper because it takes 4 sets of crap data which have been screwed around and adjusted to the point where the entire trends can be explained by adjustment. It would have been interesting if they had used an objective dataset from satellites.
When did satellite data on world temperatures become available? Would those data cover a long enough time period?
1979
https://www.drroyspencer.com/latest-global-temperatures/
Check out Dr Roy Spencer, NASA. Obviously he is persona non grata with the usual AGW crowd, but his history and expertise speak for themselves.
In order to determine a “global warming rate” you would need a consistent and reliable way to determine the “global temperature” over a time period. Unless you are God, I am not sure you can do that.
The problem is, the UN and IPCC think they are God.
There is no such thing a the global temperature, average or otherwise, despite what the Climatrons say.
90% of the Earth’s surface has no surface temperature measuring instrumentation which can be or is used in the so-called temperature records. (Satellite data is not direct temperature measurement and is not accurate.)
”Since records began…” was 1860 as the Earth was coming out of the Little Ice Age. Weather temperature measuring instruments are not scientific instruments, they don’t need to be, just good enough for weather reporting.
The “since records began…” record is unlikely to be accurate to within +/- 5C.
Reporting of “warmest on record” to within tenths of a degree is nonsensical.
The truth is, global warming is taking place so slowly, erratically and so slightly that it cannot be measured. Nobody knows what it is… so they make it up and lie.
Indeed – I guess I had never really thought much about the idea until fairly recently, but once I spent a few minutes trying to get my head round it, it just seemed like utter nonsense and I can’t get past that. I don’t think anyone needs a high IQ or a scientific degree to see that the concept is meaningless.
All temperature is LOCAL If you take a temperature reading in Iceland and another in Brisbane and do some kind of average you will get a number, but that number is not the temperature of anything. It is just a statistic. Some things lose their meaning when you average them and temperature is one of those things, basically because temperature is not an amount of anything. It is a CONDITION. ——–temperature is a FIELD.
Indeed
Even at a fairly local level you are better off being given a range of temperatures you are likely to encounter. As soon as you go over a wider area the whole thing breaks down completely.
Sums up our king rather nicely! Thank you!
No Global Temperature? And here was me thinking they just stick a thermometer under the Earths armpit and take a reading.———–But as you and I know the temperature record of Earth is a dog’s breakfast of manipulated data that has been fiddled about with more times than a prostitute’s knickers.
The Little Ice Age was due to the last grand solar minimum. Another is expected in the next 20-40 years with a potential typical 1C reduction in global temperatures.
Yes, please see the Electroverse website photos if you haven’t already, even though the articles are behind a paywall:
Electroverse – Documenting Earth Changes During The Next Grand Solar Minimum
I have been onto this issue since 2007. I have seen it unfold with mainstream media treating “climate change” like ultimate truth. Endless pronouncements from officialdom of what we can expect if we don’t stop using fossil fuels. Prince Charles (King) Leonardo Di Caprio, David Attenborough, and an endless stream of pop stars, actors, as well as all the politicians claiming certainty where there is NONE.
Climate Change is talked about as if it was as real as a Pillar Box. Except I know pillar boxes exist because I have stuck letters in them hundreds of times. The only climate change I have seen is in models full of assumptions guesses and data fiddling.
Why is there no discussion of a pole shift in educated western circles. In Russia even working class people are talking about it and planning for it. On a larger scale there is a hugely ambitious arctic sea route being established which will enable Russia and China to bypass the Suez Canal. They will start with high-powered icebreakers but anticipate that these won’t be needed for long. Not only do our demons in charge create a fake cataclysm but they do everything they can to occlude the real coming changes. And it isn’t rocket science to work out why they would do this.
The real changes aren’t obscure or even controversial in that they are apparent in crop yields all over the world. Look at the price of olive oil, coffee, chocolate etc. And in northern Europe the wetness which has severely hindered growth. You just go to the supermarket and buy a loaf of bread. Grains are gong to increase rapidly in price in the next few months. How can you be a conscientious person and yet ignore these things or dismiss them as unimportant? It is crazy if you want to stay alive. Just look at how much of your outlook is essentially wishful thinking because it is hard work to look at the truth.
This is good news from Chris Morrison!
Please also see the Electroverse website photos showing the general snowiness happening around the world, even though the articles are behind a paywall.
Electroverse – Documenting Earth Changes During The Next Grand Solar Minimum
“Early snows in Spain, 70% of Russia blanketed in snow, Record cold in US, Early snows sweep Asia, Big Freeze sweeps Iceland, New Zealand’s bumper ski season, Japan forecasts epic winter snow…”
I was watching Japanese News the other day and it was reported about an abnormally low catch of flying squid in North Hokkaido.
They interviewed a scientist who said the cause was unusually LOW! Sea temperatures.
I always thought that the UK’s Met Office lost a major opportunity to scare the crap out of us all by not placing a thermometer inside the steel works at Port Talbot.
But now they’ve succeeded in killing that off, they can’t, can they?
Unfortunately the pigs have got their noses so deep in the trough that nothing but nothing will change their minds. Even those who don’t actually make money out of this absurd narrative are bewitched; many of them will see friends, family and society grievously harmed in pursuance of their illusions. Given the choice of either changing their minds on the basis of sound scientific evidence, or of walking into an iron foundry, they’ll choose the foundry. That’s just how it is.