Mark Steyn has been one of the most consistently brave and brilliant political analysts of our generation. He has always firmly stood his ground, challenging the ‘official’ narrative on issues like climate change, illegal immigration and cultural Marxism, in the face of constant attacks from the establishment. He does it all with great wit and sarcasm.
Steyn was one of the only ‘mainstream’ media personalities to speak critically about the Covid vaccines and to interview the vaccine-injured and bereaved when he was a presenter on GB News in 2022. This clearly riled the establishment, who demanded that Ofcom, the British regulator of TV and radio, intervene. Hence, in December 2022, Ofcom ruled that two of Steyn’s programmes were in breach of Ofcom regulations.
One of the Ofcom rulings focused on a programme in which Steyn claimed that UKHSA (U.K. Health Security Agency) data showed triple-vaccinated people were at much greater risk of contracting, being hospitalised and dying from COVID-19 than unvaccinated people. Ofcom ruled that Steyn misled the public on these claims, stating:
Mark Steyn said in the programme that UKHSA data on those people that had, and those that had not, received a third COVID-19 vaccination dose could be compared because the two groups included approximately the same numbers of people. However, his interpretation that there was “only one conclusion” from this comparison – that the third vaccination caused increased levels of infection, hospitalisation and death – was misleading because it did not take account of key factors such as the significant differences in age or health of the people in these two groups. The programme also failed to reflect that the UKHSA reports made clear that the raw data should not be used to draw conclusions about vaccine efficacy, due to the biases inherent in the vaccinated and unvaccinated populations.
The other ruling focused on a programme in which his guest Naomi Wolf made claims about vaccine adverse reactions. Ofcom ruled that these claims were inaccurate and that Steyn failed in his duty as the presenter to challenge Wolf on them.
Ofcom, who act as judge and jury, did not allow Steyn to provide any defence against the rulings, and so he decided to mount a judicial review against them in the High Court. The case was heard in the Royal Courts of Justice, London by Justice Farbey on June 11th, 2022. On July 30th, 2024, Justice Farbey ruled in favour of Ofcom. Her full judgement can be found here.
A couple of weeks before the case went to Court on June 11th, 2024, I was asked to provide a report about the statistical issues relating to the claims about the UKHSA data. My findings challenge Justice Farbey’s final decision about this, namely her conclusion:
Ofcom was not “obviously wrong” to insist that broadcasters avoid the risk that vaccinated individuals be caused alarm.
Hence, it is important now to bring the facts into the public domain that show that Ofcom was indeed “obviously wrong”. Sadly, it seems Justice Farbey did not have these full facts at her disposal.
In summary, my report (which includes relevant links to the data and evidence) found that:
- Ofcom’s ruling that “Mark misled the viewer” is based on the narrow examination of the available UKHSA data and only that to which Steyn specifically referred. Ofcom took no account of all relevant data available at that time, which categorically supports (and strengthens) the contention suggested by Steyn that the vaccinated were more likely to be hospitalised than the unvaccinated. Analysis of all the data shows Steyn’s assessment not just to be correct but to underestimate the negative hospital outcomes for the vaccinated categories when compared to the unvaccinated.
- Ironically, the only editorial criticism Ofcom could have validly made was that Steyn did not provide an analysis in support of his contention using all relevant data available – and that, if he failed in anything, it was to insufficiently alert the audience to the risks from booster vaccination. Not only were the boosters ineffective, but the Covid case rates in the ‘ever vaccinated’ were higher than those in the ‘never vaccinated’ in almost all age groups and at least three times higher in the boosted than the never vaccinated.
- With respect to Covid mortality data, Steyn’s comparison between the UKHSA boosted and unboosted vaccine categories was indeed oversimplified, but this was understandable given the obfuscated way in which the UKHSA presented the data. Even had he broken it down by age to avoid ‘age confounding’ (as the Ofcom counsel correctly claimed he should have done), it would not have changed the overall conclusion to be drawn from the data that, for a reason known only to Ofcom, they failed to consider.
- Missing from Ofcom’s analysis was anything about all-cause mortality (i.e., death from any cause) as opposed to just Covid mortality. Only by comparing the all-cause mortality rates of the vaccinated and unvaccinated can we get a true assessment of the efficacy of the vaccines. If the vaccines are saving more lives from Covid than they are causing from adverse reactions to the vaccines, then the all-cause mortality rate in the vaccinated would be lower than in the unvaccinated. Hence, all-cause mortality is the most important and objective statistic; it completely avoids the many concerns about what constitutes a ‘Covid death’. It turns out that, in most age groups, the all-cause mortality rate was higher in the boosted than the unboosted. And, once we take account of systemic biases in the data, all-cause mortality was higher in the ever vaccinated than the never vaccinated in every age group.
- Hence, once the systemic biases in the relevant UKHSA (and also the Office for National Statistics) datasets are accounted for, they show a consistent lack of efficacy for the vaccines. Ofcom, in its ruling against Steyn, has encouraged the suppression of this critical information while the public has continued to be offered booster vaccines, exposing them to risk and thereby subjecting them to harm.
- If Steyn missed addressing the effect of age confounding, Ofcom’s omission was much more serious and fundamental. It is guilty of using this narrow point to ‘disprove’ a thesis which in every other respect stands up. They are, in fact, guilty of the blowfish fallacy. This is the technique of laser-focusing on an inconsequential methodological aspect of scientific research, blowing it out of proportion to distract from the bigger picture. If you persuade people to focus hard enough on specific details, they can miss the gorilla walking through the room.
On its website Ofcom states:
OFCOM’s principal duty is: (i) to further the interests of citizens, and (ii) to further consumer interests in relevant markets, where appropriate by promoting competition.
Ofcom is supposed to be independent and dispassionate. It is neither their role to endorse Government policy nor to prevent criticism of it. In contrast to their ruling against Steyn, Ofcom did nothing about the multiple instances of ‘TV doctors’ making false claims about vaccine efficacy. For example, in one especially infamous programme segment screened on ITV, Dr. Sara Kayat claimed that the (subsequently withdrawn) AstraZeneca vaccine was “100% effective against hospitalisation and death”, with no interrogation from the presenters about risk, at great potential harm to the public. Ofcom did nothing despite hundreds of complaints to them about this segment.
Until he retired last year, Norman Fenton was Professor in Risk Information Management at Queen Mary University of London. Subscribe to his blog.
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Equilibrium does very briefly mention the “revolutionary precept of the hate crime”. Seemed strangely irrelevant at the time, not so much now.
I don’t think that is the driving force.
I think these prescriptions of insane behaviour are driven by people that have a pathological desire to control others, rule over them, exercise power in that way.
And I think in their minds they are constantly concocting things will make things “better’.
Better in their minds means more orderly, or more “equal” or more “logical”. But essentially it’s a rationalisation, an excuse, to get what they really want which is to exert power over others.
Bureaucracies are full of these people.
What the author observes therefore is the use of bureaucracy by people who want to control others.
It doesn’t need a plan or organisation. Left to themselves and allowed free reign, this is what you get.
If you see it appear all over at the same time it’s because these are motivated people who quickly adopt what they see working elsewhere.
A lot of it is power, or at least believing they have power, for the sake of power even when they know their commands don’t make any difference.
“Noncompliance is an essential start regardless.”
Interestingly I have some colleagues who are all rampant covidiots but lately they have started to develop some anti tendencies. And what has set them off?
The Horizon Post Office scandal which they have all surprisingly woken up to because it has been made in to a telebox drama. Now some anti-establishment mutterings are being voiced – ‘bloody government,’ British justice is a joke,’ ‘damned NHS’ etc.
Comments which are not normal for these “normies.”
Perhaps a slight awakening is occurring and perhaps the anti sentiments will widen in scope. Hope and all that.
I hope you’re right and that anti-government sentiments widen.
I work in Liverpool and my half a dozen work colleagues all hate the Conservatives with a passion. I get along with them all fine, despite our political differences. Things are either not discussed or we agree to disagree.
However, despite their hatred for the “evil tories”, when Hancock and Johnson told them to mask up, shove the swabs up their nose, isolate, track and trace and get jabbed and so on – they all complied ethusiastically and trusted them without question. I pointed out at the time (and still do) that they all must be closet Tories as they trust and obey whatever the tory politicians tell them to do – and that part of the reason for my non-compiance was that I wouldn’t trust any politician (of any party) as far as I could kick them. Their collective cognitive dissonance is quite stunning.
Thanks for that story. Incredible really.
cheers Hux. Thank goodness for old school “anything goes” workplace banter. They’re all great fun to work with – despite our political differences. We all take the piss – with people taking it on the chin and accepting back as good as they give.
I know this sounds pretentious – but the bonds that tie us are far stronger than any differences we may have. These days, in many groups, companies, towns and cities – the differences and traits that divide people seem much stronger than any bonds that might unite them. Such a shame.
That was one of the weirdest things about that whole time. People who wouldn’t vote Tory if they were the only party on the ballot paper, happily going along with something against which it was often the small c conservatives protesting. Things truly turned on their head.
I’d like to agree with that, and hopefully a slight awakening is indeed taking place; but of those in my personal directory, many seem capable of holding two contradictory views at the same time: yes, the Post Office scandal shows that the governing elite is corrupt, selfish, wicked – but of course the Covid ‘response’ reveals a governing elite that is ethically honest, objective, responsible and well-meaning. They hold these views simultaneously, regardless of ‘social status’: I know a lot of people from all walks of life – Left, Right, rich, poor, educated, uneducated (which, other than in one or two cases doesn’t mean unintelligent or uninformed). To take an example, D – Imperial College/Sciences/BA pilot – is maddened by the government’s part in the Post Office scandal but demonstrates no tendency whatsoever to question his deeply pro-EU, pro-vaccine, climate-alarmist position in the light of his new-found scepticism. He can hold two views at once, in other words; the philosophy of scepticism that assumes all human beings to be inclined to corruption, graft and deception, does not underpin his world view. On the contrary – he sees events concerning the Post Office as an exception that proves the rule. We get on because we don’t talk politics!
I’m surprised you don’t rectify it; I try to at any opportunity.
Bureaucratic opportunism. You never know, some academic might create a course on the theme of Bureaucratic psychology, or something like that – and make a profit from it.
Disagree in the strongest terms. The reason why so many sheep got into the lift is nothing to do with humans spiriting free will, and everything to do with sheep following other sheep who follow other sheep.
A story. A true one. About three months ago I found myself in a bar in Stafford with a few friends. It was quite late and there were lots of pissed people. Anyway, someone spilt a drink on the floor and a woman behind the bar came to mop up the spillage. A guy, surrounded by his mates, grabbed hold of the woman and made her dance with mop in hand. At first the bar lady found it mildly amusing, but that faint amusement soon turned into irritation, then distress, as this idiot refused to let her go. The place was packed and what did the mass of people do? They pointed and laughed. Pointed and laughed because other people pointed and laughed. I prized this idiot from the poor woman and suddenly everyone stopped laughing. It got a bit lively after that, but I know the lady I helped was grateful and it was the right thing to do regardless of cost. My point is this: the majority of people will do whatever the majority of people will do. Nothing to do with the romantic notion of the human spirit.
Well done. If this man wasn’t “surrounded by his mates”, he would likely have done nothing as there were no predictable sheep to entertain.
I’m inclined to agree with the sheep explanation for non-compliance. People are no longer actively telling people what to do, and so they don’t do it (having ceased to notice mere signs).
Case in point – we are told there is a lot of Covid about, and maybe even a new strain. And indeed, people say they’re staying away from gatherings because they have it (which means they were scared enought to pay for a test).
But does anybody think they ought to open windows in such gatherings, as the advice was just a couple of winters ago? In fact it’s advice that might well reduce virus load in aerosols, but because nobody on the news is interested any more, neither are they, even though they’re still unduly scared of the killer virus.
https://www.conservativewoman.co.uk/in-praise-of-doubt/
A useful complementary article from TCW.
For whatever reason, my life – 72 now – has been marked by a strong streak of refusal to comply. From my teenage years. Speak the truth, stand firm in your beliefs, and it is amazing what apparently powerful forces will crumble before you. My faith helps hugely in that.
As what wonderful hymn to Muscular Christianity goes
“Fight the good fight with all thy might”
Or in my wife and I favourite toast as we click glasses
“Fuck ’em all”.