In a recent lecture, Nobel Laureate physicist John Clauser exposed how the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) models and analyses, which are relied upon by politicians and activists to support claims of a ‘climate crisis’, do not meet basic standards of scientific enquiry. Clauser received his Nobel prize in 2022 for the observational measurement of quantum entanglement and understands well the problem of distinguishing a physical signal from background noise.
Clauser shows that, when corrected for the IPCC’s error prone arithmetic and statistics, the observational data do not support the power imbalance claimed to be responsible for global warming. Furthermore, the outputs of climate models are at variance with the observational record. Clauser discusses the roles of convection, clouds and their variability in providing a negative feedback mechanism, and proposes that this acts as a thermostat that stabilises surface temperatures. Clauser’s conclusion is that claims of a ‘climate crisis’ lack scientific substance and that Net Zero policies are an unnecessary hindrance.
Clauser’s talk is available on YouTube. However, there is merit in reviewing the physics arguments that draw on the observational data about atmospheric energy flows to refute the notion of an anthropogenic global warming (AGW) induced climate crisis.
Energy Flows in the Climate System
It is useful to start with a simplified depiction of the solar energy flow that reaches the Earth, its transformation by the Earth’s climate system and the resulting (mostly thermal) energy flow that leaves the Earth’s atmosphere. This is shown in Figure 1, taken from a recent IPCC report.
The IPCC diagram shows an energy imbalance, being the difference between the incoming visible and UV solar radiation 340 W/m2, less the amount reflected (100 W/m2), less the outgoing infra-red (IR) thermal radiation (239 W/m2). The claimed imbalance at the Top of the Atmosphere is 0.7 W/m2 (give or take 0.2) and the IPCC asserts that this is driving the continuing warming of the climate system.
The radiation measurements necessary for this calculation are carried out at different wavelengths by instruments carried by satellites, and observational errors are inevitable. Combining the uncertainty ranges in the incoming, reflected and outgoing streams shown in Table 1, by using the standard statistical Root Mean Square rule, shows that the error margin in the calculated imbalance is actually 3 W/m2, some 15 times greater than the 0.2 W/m2 error margin claimed by the IPCC. In short, there is no observed energy imbalance. The claimed imbalance of 0.7 W/m2 is swamped by observational error, and, from a scientific perspective, it is described by Clauser as a “fudge”.
Natural Variability
Importantly, the IPCC treatment understates the natural variability of the solar energy flow that penetrates the climate system. One key element driving this variation is ‘albedo’, the proportion of sunlight that is reflected by clouds or the surface. The extent of cloud cover, which typically covers about two-thirds of the Earth’s surface, is actually quite dynamic, and as a consequence, albedo varies from month to month in a range of 0.275 to 0.305. Clauser estimates that the resulting monthly variation in reflected energy spans the range (95-105 W/m2). Clauser observes that this fluctuating monthly pattern is not well replicated by the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) computer models used by the IPCC, which must therefore be missing key aspects of the physics of clouds.
This is significant because the natural variability introduced to the climate system by variations in clouds and albedo dwarfs the effect of secondary greenhouse gases such as CO2. Moreover, the relative stability of the Earth’s climate system in the face of these swings in the solar energy input indicates that there are negative feedback mechanisms at work.
Surface Heat Flows and the Nature of Atmospheric Equilibrium
Before returning to the subject of clouds, some more comments on the energy flows depicted in Figure 1 are in order. In thermodynamics it is crucial to distinguish between energy and heat. The First Law of Thermodynamics states that energy is conserved. The Second Law of Thermodynamics states that entropy never decreases, and this in turn entails that heat only flows from hotter to colder objects and never the reverse. In order to understand the physics of atmospheric processes it is necessary to take this directionality of heat flows into account. Thus, the ‘greenhouse gases down surface’ energy flux (339-347 W/m2) shown in the IPCC diagram does not actually represent a heat flow; rather it simply acts to counter a portion of the ‘up surface’ energy flux (395-400 W/m2), with the result being that the rate of surface cooling by radiation is determined by the difference (56 +/-5 W/m2). We can use this insight to put the balance of heat flows at the surface into perspective, as shown in Table 2.
The general circulation climate models in use today were inspired by the work of Nobel Prize winning physicist Syukuro Manabe, who in 1967 introduced the paradigm of the atmospheric system as being in a radiative convective equilibrium1. It can be seen from Table 2, that the convective flow of latent and sensible heat is twice as important as radiation in cooling the Earth’s surface. Manabe’s incorporation of convection marked a distinct improvement on the earlier generation of radiative models. One can, however, ask if a predilection for trying to understand atmospheric dynamics purely in terms of radiation, rather than convective heat flows, still persists within the climate modelling community, and whether this is at the root of the continuing inability of climate models to match observation.
Radiative Forcing and Negative Feedbacks
The early work by Manabe, recently confirmed in refined calculations carried out by Happer and van Wjngaarden2, describes the impact of greenhouse gases in terms of ‘radiative forcing’, that is to say, their transient impact on the Top of Atmosphere (ToA) energy balance. Both calculate that the radiative forcing due to a doubling of CO2 leads to around 3 W/m2 reduction in the outgoing thermal radiation in clear skies. Applying the Stefan-Boltzmann Law, according to which black body radiation increases as the fourth power of temperature (measured in degrees Kelvin), tells us that the radiating sources in the atmosphere would need to increase in temperature by about 0.75°C to produce extra compensating radiation. The key question for climate physics is, what is the compensating ground surface temperature response required in order to restore the thermal radiation at the ToA?
The 27 CMIP climate models in use by the IPCC incorporate an Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity (ECS) with a range of 1.8°C to 5.6°C increase in ground surface temperature per doubling of CO23. This is between 2.5 and 7.5 times higher than the temperature response 0.75°C in the atmosphere, implying the presence of some very substantial positive feedback mechanisms incorporated in the CMIP models that multiply the initial forcing.
Clauser makes the general observation, based on Le Chatelier’s principle, that a complex physical system in equilibrium typically contains multiple negative feedback mechanisms that act to oppose rather than amplify forcing and questions the basis of the IPCC’s supposed positive feedbacks.
Indeed, it is far easier to identify negative feedback mechanisms than it is to identify positive feedbacks. Table 3 sets out the obvious negative feedbacks in response to a surface temperature increase of 1°C, that follow by the application of basic physics to the heat flows in Figure 1.
The Clausius-Clapeyron relation entails that the saturated water vapour content of air increases by 7% for an increase in temperature of 1°C from the current global average around 15°C. Based on this, the IPCC estimates a positive feedback of 1.3 W/m2 due to increased water vapour content of the atmosphere and the consequent absorption of surface radiation. However, as Clauser points out, the Clausius-Clapeyron relation must also lead to comparable increases in evaporation, cloud formation and rainfall, along with the accompanying transfer of latent heat (of evaporation of water) away from the ground surface. The consequent negative feedbacks act to offset radiative forcing. In particular, (a) the effect of increased solar reflection by clouds has a direct impact on the ToA energy balance, and (b) the physics of convection entails that heated air expands, acquires buoyancy and rises to the Tropopause (at around 11 km altitude), while releasing its extra heat as thermal radiation to space. While some of the surface thermal radiation will be absorbed in the atmosphere, it is manifest from Table 3 that the identified negative feedbacks dwarf the positive feedback calculated by the IPCC.
Clauser points out that the amount of negative feedback from clouds depends not only on their extent, but also on their distribution over the Earth’s surface and on their reflectivity. Most clouds are formed by the strong absorption of sunlight by the oceans, where the cooling impact of reflection from clouds is greater than over land. Taken together, the thermal, convective and cloud negative feedbacks combine to provide a thermostat mechanism that stabilises the temperature of the Earth’s surface against forcing, regardless of whether this originates from variability in solar insolation (for example, due to changes in cloud cover) or from the effect of greenhouse gasses. Clauser estimates a combined negative net feedback strength in the range 7-14 W/m2 per 1°C, consistent with the magnitudes in Table 3.
If we assume an overall net negative feedback of (10) W/m2 per 1°C at the surface, in the middle of Clauser’s range, this would be three times greater than the radiative forcing from a doubling of CO2 in clear skies of 3 W/m2, so the surface temperature increase necessary to offset the radiative forcing would imply an ECS of only 0.3°C. With this level of negative feedback, the ECS range of 1.8°C to 5.6°C used by the IPCC overestimates the effect of CO2 by a factor of between 6 and 19 times.
Equivalently, under this range of negative feedbacks, the ECS range of 1.8°C to 5.6°C would imply that an increase in heat flux from the surface of between 18-56 W/m2 is required to compensate for a mere 3 W/m2 radiative forcing in the atmosphere. Where does the remainder of the heat flux go? The First Law of Thermodynamics entails that this energy cannot disappear, and the Second Law of Thermodynamics entails that heat in the atmosphere can only transfer to a cooler surface (i.e., radiate out to space). The IPCC climate models appear to violate either the First or Second Laws of Thermodynamics, possibly both.
Conclusions
In conclusion, Clauser argues that the negative feedback mechanisms in the Earth’s climate system stabilise temperatures against warming due to increases in radiative forcing. As a corollary, there is no CO2 induced anthropogenic global warming climate crisis. The negative feedbacks similarly serve to stabilise surface temperatures against cooling. Such a thermostatic mechanism that draws on the thermodynamic properties of water can explain how a water-rich planet such as the Earth has been hospitable to life throughout history.
The climate narrative promulgated by the IPCC and its advocates is based on poor statistics, the flawed cherry-picking of data and an incomplete treatment of physical mechanisms, which includes ignoring important negative feedbacks.
An analysis of negative feedbacks implies that the 50% increase in CO2 from pre-industrial times (280 ppm) to the current level (420 ppm) is plausibly the cause of only about 0.15°C of global warming.
A physics explanation of the Earth’s observed historic warming and cooling cycles and the warming observed since the 1970s has to look to the variability induced by the many other natural mechanisms discussed in the climate literature, such as solar cycles, orbital/lunar cycles, cloud variability, ocean cycles, volcanoes, ozone variability, urban heat islands and so on. These are beyond the scope of this note.
Dr. Rudolph Kalveks is a retired executive. His PhD was in theoretical physics.
- S. Manabe and R. T. Wetherald, Thermal Equilibrium of the Atmosphere with a Given Distribution of Relative Humidity, J. Atmos. Sci. 24, 241 (1967). ↩︎
- van Wijngaarden, W.A. and Happer, W., 2020. Dependence of Earth’s Thermal Radiation on Five Most Abundant Greenhouse Gases. arXiv preprint arXiv:2006.03098. ↩︎
- Zelinka, M.D., Myers, T.A., McCoy, D.T., Po‐Chedley, S., Caldwell, P.M., Ceppi, P., Klein, S.A. and Taylor, K.E., 2020. Causes of higher climate sensitivity in CMIP6 models. Geophysical Research Letters, 47(1), p.e2019GL085782. ↩︎
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Hundreds of thousands of people arriving here have to live somewhere and presumably that will be in a HOUSE. If we don’t build hundreds of thousands of houses then it is clear to even the dimmest of people that there will NOT be enough HOUSES. But to Liberal Progressives truth is to be locked in a dark room and the key thrown away.
It is an invasion and a replacement. Musulmans, Africans, Ukes, Asians, a few Whitey’s to salt the dish.
As simple as that. The great replacement.
Erase your culture, your history, the anglo-saxons which did not exist apparently, your nationalism.
Open borders with a purpose with you and the ‘natives’ to be erased.
Make the migrants build their own houses…
It’s easier to use financial incentives or change the law and force homeowners/tenants to take-in immigrants if the government deems them to have space.
Didn’t the BBC do a drama about a migrant wave into Europe/UK 20-25 years ago?
Very concerning, especially when one considers who it is we are getting all over Europe. And it’s not like these men are arriving with any papers whatsoever. A re-share as it’s pertinent to this article;
”Unlike the mass migration occurring at the U.S. southern border, where the majority of Latin Americans crossing are Roman Catholic Christians, Europe’s mass migration comprises people with an Eastern and Islamic background who have a worldview at odds with the Judeo-Christian foundation of Europe. Assimilating into the host culture is problematic for most migrants, many of whom are illiterate even in their own language and find learning a European language too difficult. Islamist and fundamentalist Salafist groups prey on frustrated and angry Muslim youths who are incapable or unwilling to integrate. There has been an increase in sexual crimes and homicides and a precipitous rise in antisemitism and attacks on churches. Instead of reporting on jihadist attacks, the mainstream media provide cover for attackers by remaining silent, fearing accusations of “Islamophobia” or attributing the cause to “psychological problems,” but never to Islamism or jihad.
Although the erosion of European culture has been ongoing for decades, the continent is being permanently changed with the unabated flood of Muslim migrants, propelled along by the lack of political will to stop it. Any program that would interrupt the migration momentum would require “mass economic support to sub-Saharan Africa,” which “is not going to happen.” Absent a Marshall Plan for Africa and Afghanistan, “this is really unstoppable.” Over the next fifteen years or so, if Germany sustains its current migration level, it will be almost twenty percent Muslim. This demographic shift will irrevocably strengthen the presence of Sharia law, which runs “parallel” to Europe’s democratic order. “It’s a very sad prognosis for the future of Europe and for the future of Judeo-Christian culture on this continent.”
https://www.meforum.org/64536/soeren-kern-on-europe-alarming-new-migrant-crisis
Indeed, though very large parts of sub-Saharan Africa are Christian and I would not want to live there either.
In some of those parts Islamists are busily trying to kill off Christianity.
Doubtless, though I wouldn’t want to live anywhere in Africa
I take issue with the phrase “Eastern and Islamic background”. The vast majority of Hindus, Sikhs, Buddhists etc. have no problem integrating and while they don’t share all Judeo-Christian moral values they’re very rarely hostile to the West and want to replace our laws with their own religious laws. It’s only Muslims, or some of them bolstered by zero real condemnation from the rest, that think their values are superior, hate the West and represent a threat.
If you cannot protect your border, you cannot protect your culture and values. Poland Hungary and a few others are showing us how to do this by not accepting EU migrant quotas, despite the usual spitting fury from the mass immigration progressives that are attempting to destroy national identity which they see as the enemy of global governance.
So UK foreign policy and aid does not create safe homelands that people do not want to leave? Perhaps change foreign policy unless this situation is the intended result.
Yes, I was thinking something on similar lines, ie that perhaps it would be a good idea to cancel all the international debt and stop strip mining/exploiting and unsettling/disrupting all these countries …. unless the aim is in fact to trigger so many into coming here.
Reconquer Africa to end the abhorrent conditions in many parts of it would doubtlessly be a worthy goal but not a profitable one. Not to mention that the US left would go bezerk over it as that’s not a problem it’ll ever have to deal with. And there’s also a question of where to find all the people who would have to become soldiers. English OAPs would obviously be of little use here.
Unsayable in the circles Shriver moves in- the “educated” middle class
What’s the educated middle class?
People who are financially comfortably off with university degrees
The same as the uneducated middle class but with O’Levels.
I made the distinction because in my personal experience people on middle class incomes such as small business owners and tradesmen tend to be more socially conservative and happier to speak freely.
I was just making a joke tof. It was too good to miss.
Sorry
Maybe I have a form of “long Covid” that impairs the sense of humour:)
I found the original question somewhat odd….
No need to apologise tof.
This has been clear as the nose on my face for decades but in all the coverage it seems that the cause of the housing shortage is a mystery ..lol
I also think the “official” current population numbers of around 67 million are already way off.I remember reading somewhere that the supermarkets reckon, based on food consumption we are already scraping 80 million or so.
Plus always remember that the published numbers are all based on estimates as lots of illegals do not , by their nature , get included in census numbers ..
I think the water companies have been saying similar – you could argue that food waste means that supermarkets aren’t necessarily accurate about consumption, but the amount of stuff coming out the other end is indisputable.
A link without a paywall;
”Another defeat saw peers back an amendment stating that actions under the Illegal Migration Bill cannot conflict with the UK’s obligations under the UN Refugee Convention, European Convention on Human Rights and other agreements on child protection, trafficking and statelessness.
The new laws are key to the prime minister’s plan to “stop the boats” and aim to allow the government to detain and deport all small boat migrants, without considering their asylum or trafficking claims.
When the bill was introduced to parliament, home secretary Suella Braverman made an unusual statutory declaration that it may not be compatible with the Human Rights Act, but she said elsewhere that it was compatible with international law.”
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/small-boats-illegal-migration-bill-lords-b2365903.html
“European Convention on Human Rights and other….”
Which will be abolished if, sorry when, the government signs the Pandemic Preparedness Treaty / International Health Regulations.
Germany’s AfD party gaining popularity as citizens are sick and tired of non-stop migration and the dangers these migrants pose. They seemingly can’t even go to swimming pools anymore;
”The AfD has been the only serious party promoting a halt to mass immigration. The “center-right” CDU, which introduced open borders under former Chancellor Angela Merkel, has zero credibility on the issue. The other parties are looking to dramatically increase immigration numbers, with many of them promoting figures as high as 500,000 a year while also racing to naturalize foreigners just in time for them to vote in the next round of national elections.
The report details how the entire Columbiadamm swimming pool in the multicultural neighborhood of Neukölln, Berlin, was closed down due to over 40 warring youth. Welt lays the blame squarely at the feet of “macho culture” from immigrant youth. In Pankow, a swimming pool had to be shut down twice in one week due to mass brawls between young people.
However, the brawls in Berlin were far from isolated incidents. June has seen sexual and physical assaults at swimming pools across the country, including a case where seven different girls were sexually assaulted all at the same pool by different groups of men, including Syrians.
In the German city of Celle, 20 “rampaging youth” attacked swimmers, sexually assaulting them, including beating one female who rejected their advances. When lifeguards attempted to stop them, they threatened them as well. As a result, the entire swimming pool was shut down.
Just seven days ago, Germany’s Bild newspaper, the best-selling newspaper in Germany, featured an article with the headline, “Germany, your bad swimming pools” with the subheadline: “Can’t we just go to the outdoor pool in peace?”
https://rmx.news/crime/migrant-crime-in-june-from-clan-battles-to-pool-brawls-shows-why-germanys-afd-party-is-surging-in-popularity/
If you ever saw any footage of such swimming pools in summer (I did) you’d have noticed that they’re absolutely overcrowded, with maybe half a square meter per person (about 1 1/2 square feet). No wonder that violence ensues from that. The proximate cause for that is that green-left-extreme left coalitions like the one ruling Berlin simply refuse to invest in any local infrastructure save creating ad hoc housing establishments for more immigrants and painting random stuff in rainbow colours (oversimplification, but principally correct).
‘Court of Appeal has today blocked the Government’s Rwanda plan’.
Is the country run by elected politicians or unelected judges?
This is the war being fought in America, Israel and the UK.
Sunak and his globalist pals are happy to be overruled because it keeps the floodgates open.
Blair knew exactly what he was doing when he created the SC.
If the Conservatives meant business (we all know they don’t) they’d cancel it.
Bliar has been working for the Davos Deviants since he first got in to Parliament. He is probably the most treasonous person ever to hold a British passport.
Along with the traitor Heath
Thanks for reminding me. Yes, Heath too.
Why not simply do what France does and deny them the right to a house? If they are instantly better off coming here than staying in the EU they may well not come here. Even better would be to make them significantly worse off by coming here.
As to the depressed birth rate, no surprises there. Mike Yeadon warned of this before the jabs were even released. Now, what happened medically between 2020 and 2021 I wonder?
“U.K. housing crisis is that prices are so high because demand is strong, and demand is strong…..”
Think you’re a bit behind the times the bottom has just dropped out of the housing market as interest rates rise and government policies are discouraging ‘buy to let’. Trying to sell our house is hopeless even though we’ve dropped the price three times in as many weeks.
As for not building enough houses wherever I go there seems to be acres and acres of house building going on without the infrastructure to go with it. Thus water shortages and hosepipe bans absolutely f all to do with “climate change”.
There is another unsayable factor in the housing situation. I used to live on the South Coast, where there are very few immigrants. The local council leader, a Conservative, explained in public meetings that the reason new houses were needed was because the council now has to house 4 generations rather than three. We are living longer and because older people want to hang on to their assets rather than downsize, we have a housing imbalance for young people
Richard von Coudenhove-Kalergi would be so pleased with the execution of his plan ….. if he were still around to see it being implemented so ruthlessly.
A partial solution is staring us in the face.
One simple piece of technology which would alleviate the lack of new builds is 3D Printing of houses. A concrete mix is laid according to a computer led 3D plan and all conduits for services are included in the design, saving time, materials and money.
Pioneered by China and taken up successfully in Egypt, Germany and The Netherlands, this would cut the building time to between a half and a quarter of current times and thereby reduce the labour cost andf selling price to a fraction of current prices.
Win, Win, for the country and for young people wanting to get on the housing ladder. Great!.
BUT, this would also reduce the developers’ profit, wouldn’t it. (surprise !, surprise !),
So, it won’t happen, unless the government directs it to be so, or produces incentives (aka EV cars). Too many brown envelopes and foreign holidays on private yachts, I suspect….
Those who agree with mass immigration, and think they are so ‘compassionate’, should
have the migrants live with them, rent free, no taxpayer support.