It is “abundantly clear” that the Met Office cannot scientifically claim to know the current average temperature of the U.K. to a hundredth of a degree centigrade, given that it is using data that has a margin of error of up to 2.5°C, notes the climate journalist Paul Homewood. His comments follow recent disclosures in the Daily Sceptic that nearly eight out of ten of the Met’s 380 measuring stations come with official ‘uncertainties’ of between 2-5°C. In addition, given the poor siting of the stations now and possibly in the past, the Met Office has no means of knowing whether it is comparing like with like when it publishes temperature trends going back to 1884.
There are five classes of measuring stations identified by the World Meteorological Office (WMO). Classes 4 and 5 come with uncertainties of 2°C and 5°C respectively and account for an astonishing 77% of the Met Office station total. Class 3 has an uncertainty rating of 1°C and accounts for another 8.4% of the total. The Class ratings identify potential corruptions in recordings caused by both human and natural involvement. Homewood calculates that the average uncertainty across the entire database is 2.5°C. In the graph below, he then calculates the range of annual U.K. temperatures going back to 2010 incorporating the margins of error.
The blue blocks show the annual temperature announced by the Met Office, while the red bars take account of the WMO uncertainties. It is highly unlikely that the red bars show the more accurate temperature, and there is much evidence to suggest temperatures are nearer the blue trend. But the point of the exercise is to note that the Met Office, in the interests of scientific exactitude, should disclose what could be large measurement inaccuracies. This is particularly important when it is making highly politicised statements using rising temperatures to promote the Net Zero fantasy. As Homewood observes, the Met Office “cannot say with any degree of scientific certainty that the last two years were the warmest on record, nor quantify how much, if any, the climate has warmed since 1884”.
The U.K. figures are of course an important component of the Met Office’s global temperature dataset known as HadCRUT. As we noted recently, there is ongoing concern about the accuracy of HadCRUT with large retrospective adjustments of warming in recent times and cooling further back in the record. In fact, this concern has been ongoing for some time. The late Christopher Booker was a great champion of climate scepticism and in February 2015 he suggested that the “fiddling” with temperature data “is the biggest science scandal ever”. Writing in the Telegraph, he noted: “When future generations look back on the global warming scare of the past 30 years, nothing will shock them more than the extent to which official temperatures records – on which the entire panic rested – were systematically ‘adjusted’ to show the Earth as having warmed more than the actual data justified.”
Since that time, the Met Office has made further adjustments to its HadCRUT database and the effect can be seen in the graph below showing all the retrospective changes made since 2008.
HadCRUT is not the only global database to add warming and cooling in ways that conveniently emphasise the ‘hockey stick’ nature of recent temperature trends. The excellent climate4you site provides the graph above as well as the illustration below showing what is going on at NASA’s GISS database.
Even more than HadCRUT, large amounts of cooling has been added in the first 100 years of the record. It is noted that the net effect of adjustments made since 2008 is to generate a more smoothly increasing global temperatures since 1880. Compiler Emeritus Professor Ole Humlum concludes that “a temperature record that keeps on changing the past hardly can qualify as being correct”. Booker was more direct in his criticism, charging that that the “wholesale manipulation” of the official temperature record, “has become the real elephant in the room of the greatest and most costly scare the world has known”.
The Met Office does a good job in its core business of providing weather forecasting services. Helped by modern satellites and computers, it provides vital and improving information for the general public and specific groups like aviators, farmers, event organisers and the miliary. But its self-ordained Net Zero political role does it few favours. Using data, accurate enough to plan on sowing wheat, to warn of a climate crisis measured down to one hundredth of a degree centigrade is ridiculous, as our and other recent investigations have shown.
It recently proposed to ditch the scientific method of calculating temperature trends over at least 30 years in favour of just a decade of past data merged with future 10 year computer model projections. The reason for this was to enable it to quickly point to the passing of the 1.5°C target. Pure politics is behind this move since the 1.5°C warming from the pre-industrial age is a political fear mongering mark used to focus global efforts to push the Net Zero collectivisation. Professor Richard Betts, the Head of Climate Impacts at the Met Office, admitted as much when he said breaching 1.5°C would “trigger questions” about what needed to be done to meet the goals of the 2016 Paris climate agreement. Professor Betts later took exception to our coverage of his novel idea which was published three weeks after it was announced. “Are they just slow readers? he asked. “I suppose our paper does use big words like ‘temperature’ so maybe they had to get grown-ups to help,” he added.
In reply, it is accepted that the Met Office knows what an air temperature is. It just ought to get better at taking accurate recordings of them.
Chris Morrison is the Daily Sceptic’s Environment Editor
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This is the army veteran that was sent down for two years for posting words online. Only nonces get mitigating circumstances which would see them avoid jail, it seems. Judges sympathize with perverts and hate patriots, go figure;
”A former soldier who made Facebook posts referring to “civil war” in the aftermath of the Southport attacks has been jailed for two years.
Daffron Williams, 40, who served on tours of Afghanistan and Iraq, previously pleaded guilty to a charge of publishing material likely to stir up racial hatred relating to public posts made between July 19 and August 11.
Cardiff Crown Court heard the posts, made before and after three girls were fatally stabbed at a dance class on July 29, included Williams describing Tommy Robinson, real name Stephen Yaxley-Lennon, as a “f***ing hero”.
Judge Lloyd-Clarke added: “I accept you have strong personal mitigation but given your encouragement to others to act – your references to civil war and to bullets – I am satisfied this offending is so serious that only custody is sufficient.”
Prosecuting, Alex Orndal said Williams had pleaded guilty to the charge against him when he appeared before Cardiff Magistrates’ Court in August and had been in custody since then.
In one Facebook comment, Williams said: “I am racist as f***, only to those who sap the life out of society and disrespect culture. Our future as British is so uncertain it is unreal.”
On July 24, he wrote: “Come on guys, it is time to stand up. Everything our ancestors, grandparents and parents fought for is ruined. Let’s do something.”
https://www.barryanddistrictnews.co.uk/news/national/24731771.former-soldier-jailed-social-media-posts-inciting-racial-hatred/
And this is that horrendous woman, Maitlis, talking to a man who defends paedophiles, Sopel, about free speech, off the back of the Allison Pearson incident;
“Many are seeking to create a persecution complex.”
https://x.com/TheNewsAgents/status/1858563321034662376
Another numpty Leftard here. 7 years for ”inciting racial hatred”. So shall we just go right ahead and decriminalize paedophilia then? It’s certainly getting that way, isn’t it? What happened to proportionality??
‘We can’t go around ignoring crimes just because they’re politically sensitive.’
The Crime Commissioner for Essex, Roger Hirst, defends the police investigation into journalist Allison Pearson.”
https://x.com/LBC/status/1858131078013501730
If you get sent to jail they have taken away all you have. If you do that to people you can create monsters you cannot control. And we the people see what you are doing. And we will remember.
Remember the Southport girls for the vile state has forgotten them.
He should not have leaded guilty. It is free speech. The state and the legal profession are our polrical enemies now. They are abusing our laws to crush our freedom. This will not end well. We are living in a communist state. We will remember who they are.
He was probably advised and wise to plead quilty… They dont like it when you waste their time, and the sentences are much longer after a trial that he would most likely have lost..
I pleaded not gulity once, on principle..
I fought the law… And the law won..
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What will Putin do about Biden’s parting gift to Ukraine?
Nobody in government in the West any longer cares what Putin might or might not do. The performance (lack of it) of the Russian Army has turned him into a ‘paper tiger’.
They’ve heard it all before. Repetition dulls the impact of threats eventually into white noise. Biden doesn’t care, Macron no longer cares, Scholz has shot his bolt and Starmer believes he has a mandate to get stuck in.
If Putin goes nuclear, the world will fall on his head. Russia will lose not just Eastern Ukraine, Georgia, but all the territories which once were part of China; the Russian ‘Union State’ will disintegrate; neutered.
He is in a quagmire of his own making. He thought the West was degenerate, now he confronts a U.S. President of immense personal courage who, unlike Putin, knows what it is like to be shot at, and how to respond.
Putin has walked into America’s preferred scenario: ‘Russia weakened so that it can no longer invade its neighbours’; for the U.S. a major foreign policy success allowing it to pivot towards Asia.
Interest rates above 20%, rampant inflation, shortages of essential items like butter; that, together with a stuttering war, casualties, every prospect that the situation will deteriorate in 2025, is the classic recipe for internal unrest, defenestration, even revolution….
Whatever he does now, he will have to negotiate, sooner or later…..probably sooner would be good, certainly for him.
No-one is interested in negotiation, just the continued funnelling of public funds into heavily-veiled bank accounts and untraceable onward transactions.
Human life and geopolitical stability be damned, the usual suspects’ avarice must be fed.
Everyone is interested in negotiation so that they can restart the energy deals Gerhardt Schroder, ex German Chancellor and so many other political bag men are so fond of and so that the Putin stipends to political parties across Europe can be resumed.
Putin is interested in negotiation. His posturing is necessary to buttress his support amongst those in Russia profiting from the war, leeching corrupt millions from defence deals; a big part of the reason why the Russian Army’s performance has been so poor.
Come now, profiteers abound wherever profit is to be expected. Such as BlackRock, who bought up most of Ukraine’s arable land. Now why are they so interested in farm land? Has that something to do with the West attacking farmers and their products? Is the intention to create a shortage in the world’s food production? That would make BlackRock’s investment really profitable – coincidence?
Unlike the West?
I served, I saw the waste and the insane contracts first hand. What I saw and heard of elsewhere cemented my decision to leave – it was all a giant lie.
If you have evidence of corruption within British defence procurement, you should hand it to the Police. The difference is that if you do that in Russia you will be arrested and then murdered.
What utter nonsense!
Exactly, tbis conflict like all others is about shifting public funds in to private hands…
1 million or so dead.. Phaa.. Who cares..
The performance (lack of it) of the Russian Army has turned him into a ‘paper tiger’.
Tell that to the 2,320 Ukrainian soldiers killed just yesterday (according to the Russian MoD).
If Putin goes nuclear …
Putin, as always, shows remarkable restraint. He knows that Biden only wants to spoil Trump’s inauguration. However, it would be nice if USA war hawks – including those supposedly chosen to occupy key positions in Trump’s team – demonstrated equal restraint.
… the Russian ‘Union State’ will disintegrate; neutered.
Which is exactly what USA has been trying to achieve since 2008 (not to mention before). USA is always keen to assert its global hegemony.
He thought the West was degenerate …
How could anyone possibly believe the West is degenerate? Ask any DS reader …
And Ukraine was degenerate by voting an actor for President, an actor who famously pretended he could play a piano with his penis. To be fair, he promised them peace but then somebody changed his script.
… for the U.S. a major foreign policy success allowing it to pivot towards Asia.
Exactly. US must maintain its global hegemony: first destroy Russia and then go after China. Damn these upstarts! How dare they challenge USA’s global dominance?
And how beneficial is USA dominance for UK? Our greatest ally since WWII but who charged us for every penny assistance during that conflict, while awarding even more financial and military assistance to USSR at zero cost.
I also believe our empire days were due to expire but FDR was determined to ensure that was exactly what happened – precisely to allow USA to take over that dominant role.
Noddy’s guide to negotiations:
‘Trump may be just as helpful as the Biden administration, given the latter’s caution, and the need for Trump to be seen as a credible dealmaker, rather than selling Ukraine down the river.
Some in Trump’s new team, notably incoming National Security Advisor Mike Waltz, have spoken……of using the prospect of more robust support for Ukraine as leverage in pushing Putin to negotiate.’
Why must we automatically assume the Russians cut the undersea cables?
Quite so. In fact there is discussion as to whether a dragging anchor or deep trawl equipment may have done the damage. I believe investigation equipment is en route to establish the facts.
Well, that theory was propounded by CNN, which is an absolute parody of a broadcaster, similar to the BBC.
Labour is facing a civil war over Net Zero
In fact the world faces a civil (world) war over Nut Zero.
‘These (BRICS) nations—many of them still early in their development as modern societies—are in no mood to compromise on their national energy security and the use of fossil fuels.
At the heart of the declaration lies a fundamental truth that the Western climate industrial complex often refuses to recognize: Access to affordable and reliable energy and economic development cannot be sacrificed at the altar of “decarbonization” if people are to thrive.
The Kazan declaration’s emphasis on “technological neutrality” is particularly telling. By explicitly endorsing the use of “all available fuels, energy sources and technologies,” including fossil fuels with abatement technologies, BRICS nations have effectively rejected the notion of a rapid phase-out of conventional energy sources.’
‘Directly challenging the European Union’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism, the Kazan statement labels such levies as “unilateral, punitive and discriminatory protectionist measures.” This is a rejection of the EU’s attempt to export its climate policies through trade.
Most of the components for solar energy systems come from China, which produces 80% of the globe’s solar panels. Because coal still dominates the Chinese energy mix, Western nations buying Chinese solar panels are effectively outsourcing their carbon dioxide emissions while claiming progress toward net-zero goals. It is all illogical.
The BRICS leaders emphasize that their immediate goals — poverty eradication, infrastructure development, and economic expansion — require a secure and stable energy supply.
The Kazan declaration isn’t just a political statement; it signals a new era in global climate-energy politics. Emerging economies will no longer be distracted from their pursuit of prosperity and are departing from the currently dominant U.N. climate frameworks.’
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2024/11/18/brics-kazan-declaration-trumps-cop29-climate-blather/
The West either wakes up and returns to de-regulated free trade as the engine of global economic and social development or, alternatvely, faces an intensifying geo-political conflict whose first bloody manifestation is, arguably, (BRICS member) Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
Tory members are deluded if they think they can get back in. No one will believe a bunch of Remainers who say the 14 years was a big mistake and now they know better.
We are not fools.
I hope you are right. But conservative may be conservative in their voting.
And with this electoral system the non-Labour vote may again be divided, giving Starmer a second term, god forbid..
I am off this morning to support the farmers in their protest. What an awful weather… hope the weather gods help us a bit.
How on earth did the Mail’s ‘Southport rumours’ get past the newspaper’s lawyers?
That there has been no challenge to the “rumours” speaks volumes. Somebody wanting to keep a lid on it and avoid any risky deep-dive into the cause of such scurrilous rumours?
I speculate, of course.
JC summing up in five minutes: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s-SEY39eP54&list=WL&index=7