Last week, Jess Ralston, the Head of Energy at the Energy and Climate Intelligence Unit (ECIU), took to Twitter/X to criticise Robert Jenrick for suggesting that if Labour keep their promise to decarbonise the grid by 2030, then we will see power blackouts:
She suggested Jenrick’s fears were “scaremongering” and demanded some evidence. She’s right that assertions without evidence can be dismissed without evidence. So, time to look at the evidence.
Warnings of Blackouts
First, Robert Jenrick is hardly the first person to warn of blackouts. The boss of the National Grid warned in November 2022, that blackouts and power cuts could be imposed during a really cold winter. Last year the National Grid also warned that they “sometimes they need to reduce demand by planned outages to avoid major damage”.
If even the National Grid is warning of outages, then Jenrick’s comments can hardly be described as scaremongering.
Peak Supply from Fossil Fuels and Nuclear
Remember that Labour have promised to decarbonise the grid by 2030, so I thought it would be helpful to see how much we rely upon reliable sources of power like fossil fuels and nuclear power now. I downloaded the supply and demand figures from Gridwatch for December 2023 and January 2024 to determine the peak supply from fossil fuel sources and from nuclear power during that period. There were eight occasions when supply from these sources exceeded 32GW. The peak supply from fossil fuels and nuclear came during the evening of December 1st, 2023, at 32.3GW. At that time, we were getting <1.5GW from wind, nothing from solar, 2.8GW from biomass, 0.8GW from hydro and a net 5.8GW from interconnectors.
Since then, due to a fault on one of the nuclear power stations supply from nuclear has dropped from 4.8GW to 3.8GW.
Changes to Generating Capacity
Over the next few years, the supply from fossil fuel and nuclear sources is going to change dramatically. First, the Government has announced that it plans to phase out our remaining coal power stations by October 2024. Moreover, the Hartlepool and Heysham One nuclear power plants are scheduled to shut down in 2026. In addition, the remaining two Advanced Gas Cooled Reactors at Heysham Two and Torness and due to shut down in 2028. This will leave us with just 1.2GW of nuclear capacity until Hinkley C eventually comes online, now expected in 2031.
DUKES Table 5.11 gives a list of all power stations in the U.K. by type, including the year of installation. Gas-fired power stations are supposed to have a life of 25-30 years (sometimes up to 40 years). Assuming an asset life of 30 years for gas-fired units and the announcements about coal generation and the nuclear power plants, Figure 2 shows what the profile of fossil fuel and nuclear power plant capacity looks like out to 2035 and compares that to the peak power produced by these types of unit in December 2023.
Here we can see we may run into trouble as soon as late this year if there are any unplanned outages or maintenance issues with the power plants. Capacity in 2025 just falls short of peak requirement, with 2026 showing a capacity gap of 3.9GW. The gap then grows to 15.9GW in 2030, closes a bit in 2031 as Hinkley C comes online before expanding to over 17GW by 2035. This does not consider that as the penetration of EVs and heat pumps increases, peak demand is likely to rise, further exacerbating the gap.
It might be possible to extend the life of these power plants out to 40 years. This begs the question about whether we should be basing our energy security on aging gas-fired power plants that are on their last legs? Ignoring that issue for the moment, extending the lives has the impact of keeping us just above water out to 2027, but there is a 1.4GW gap from 2028 as the remaining AGR nuclear plants close. If the grid is supposed to be decarbonised by 2030, there is then a gaping chasm of over 31GW at that point, as seen in Figure 3.
So, what might fill the gaps? Well, the most obvious thing to do would be to keep the coal-fired plants running and nurse the gas-fired plants into a longer life. To be safe, we should be investing in more new gas-fired plants, but we have not installed a new CCGT plant since 2016.
During those peak times described above, the interconnectors were effectively maxed out already, so there is no chance they can come to the rescue.
The Net Zero zealots have ruled out fossil fuels, so let us look at renewables. We have 1.5GW of natural flow hydroelectric capacity and aside from a few single-digit MW installations, we have not installed any significant new capacity since 2008. Hydro is not coming to the rescue. We also have pumped hydro, designed for fast response, but much of this was already being used at the times of peak demand, so that is not going to bridge the gap either.
We have 3.9GW of bioenergy, most of it being burning trees at Drax. There is no chance of expanding that to meet a 31GW supply gap by 2030, and anyway, where would all the wood-chips come from?
Of course, if we carpeted more farmland with solar panels, it would make no difference at all. This is because the peaks occur when it is dark, so there is no solar power anyway.
That leaves wind. At the times when fossil fuels and nuclear were providing over 32GW, wind was producing 1-1.5GW. It is unrealistic to expect that we can double wind capacity by 2030, but even if we could, we might expect at most an extra 1.5GW of generation on calm cold evenings, or less than 5% of the gap. So even doubling wind capacity is not going to help.
They could retrofit carbon capture and storage (CCS) on to the existing gas-fired plants, but there are several issues with this. First, we do not have a single plant working with this technology today, so the chances of installing this on all the aging gas-fired plants by 2030 are negligible. Second, CCS reduces the efficiency of power plants, so even if they did manage to install CCS, the output would be ~20% lower than it is today, meaning we would still have a significant generation gap.
Conclusions
Robert Jenrick was right. The evidence shows if Labour gets in and pursues decarbonising the grid by 2030, then we are in for blackouts. But before he takes a victory lap, he should consider that his party’s plans call for decarbonisation of the grid by 2035. Under his Government’s plans we will still face blackouts by 2028 at the latest.
I do hope this is sufficient evidence to convince Jess Ralston that our generation capacity is in a parlous state and there is a very real risk we will face blackouts in the not-so-distant future. And while we are on the subject of needing evidence to support assertions, what is the evidence that the “I” in ECIU can justifiably stand for Intelligence?
The inspiration for the title of this article came from the eponymous song by, appropriately enough, The Damned. When thinking about alleged policy gurus, recent, current and potential future energy secretaries, I am reminded of another track from the punk era: Pretty Vacant.
David Turver writes the Eigen Values Substack page, where this article first appeared.
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I hope they get the traction they deserve for sticking their necks out. They’re doing it for all of us.
Well said Stewart.
Heroes.
Amen!
The dam will break, folks, we just have to have patience.
In the meantime, we all of us, however insignificant we feel in the grand scheme of things, must use every interaction to be the still, small voice of calm. It’s what I have found the hardest, in the face of such crimes, but it’s the only way to turn the tide against the crooks and their functionaries.
There are the wolves who have eyes only for the sheep. There are the sheep who have eyes only for themselves. Then there are the sheep dogs who must have eyes for both. Pick your role.
There may come a time when it will be necessary to heed Gandhi’s words, but I don’t think it’s just yet…
It is better to be violent if there is violence in our hearts, than to wear the cloak of non-violence to cover impotence.
Or,
Si vis pacem, para bellum
Thank you, you Indian doctors (and President of the Bar?) for having the chutzpah to call for a halt to this evil exercise. (Didn’t one state go down the ivermectin route and do quite well for peanuts? Uttar Pradesh?). Another small group of professionals micturating into the wind? Is it the sound of one hand clotting? Or crawling towards the tipping point?
Why aren’t the heart surgeons and circulatory specialists (in the UK especially), the consultants and leaders of cardio-vascular professional organisations being doorstepped by journalists and quizzed about what’s happening on the ground? Why aren’t these professionals themselves blowing the whistle on these alarming excess deaths? Because a) there are no journalists anymore, (with very few honourable exceptions) but simply advertorial hacks for big pharma. And b) the heart specialists now have full trolleys even unto the crack of doom. Can it really be that simple?
They have all been bought. There’s money for everyone. Every level has benefitted. Isn’t the Heart Foundation normalising the young dropping down dead on sports fields: it’s always happened, they opine, don’t you remember?
Meanwhile, we merely shuffle about the shambles awaiting our turn. ‘It could be you!’
Buddy, can you spare a D-dimer? But answer came there none.
Would a freedom of information request ever give us the data on how many Cardio consultants and indeed top medics generally had themselves jabbed? When were they given the heads up that the job mandate was only an empty threat to get the weak minded to roll up their sleeves?
I’m assuming a minority of alert GPs (20%?) didn’t take it and nor did their families, but dished it out with gay abandon. Ker-ching, hypocrisy and wilful blindness – there’s a Germanic hybrid word lurking in their somewhere waiting to be coined.
O Mores! Tempura Mores! (Our battered way of life!)
It will take a while for those who have been conned into taking a risk to admit it, as well. If, or when that happens, there could be a severe of loss of reputation for some, which could cause it’s own problems for us all.
Yes, I believe that quite a few higher-ups in health authority/regulatory bodies realise that something isn’t right. The Dutch parliament passed a motion some time back for the excess deaths to be investigated (this was following the excess deaths last autumn, I suspect the elevated/excess and sustained mortality since March 2022 is worse). The public health authority, the RIVM, and the regional health services that were primarily in charge of stabbing people, the GGD, are refusing to provide the data necessary for the investigation, citing privacy reasons. Utter nonsense of course, a 2-second glance at the GDPR shows that public authorities can have access to such data. Plus they had no such qualms announcing x number of people died of corona every day, but now we can’t have a mortality cause?
As far as I’m concerned their refusal to cooperate in something that obviously needs investigating is prima facie evidence they know full well that the vaxx is implicated in some way. If the excess is due to corona, as some are trying to claim, it means the vaxx failed big time, so why continue pushing it? If it is not due to corona nor lockdown health care issues, it must be the vaxx. The only good thing is, discussion is finally starting in the MSM regarding the elevated/excess mortality. People are not stupid, the refusal to find out what is causing it will have more people questioning what is going on.
And so the pendulum swings. Gathering momentum along the way.
I’ve long thought that 3 and 4 in the list above are necessary, and the least that can be done for the stabbed.
Heaven knows how much it might cost, but on what we know right now this is a genuine medical emergency.
A windfall tax on Prizer maybe? Say some $270 billion? (Current market capitalisation.) That should go a long way.
Trouble is, enacting measure 3 and 4 would require an implicit admission on the part of governments, health authorities, and health professionals, that something may be wrong with the stabs.
So expect delay as long as possible, in cynical disregard for the unfortunates they’ve duped.
Yet, as Alex Berenson says, I don’t think that delay can go on much longer.
Makes sense from a health & safety perspective. I wonder if the established medical groups in the DVLA and the CAA will take an interest. The DVLA have a long list of potential medical risks, to which another item could be added. Perhaps they are not allowed to yet, a cynic might say.
This is like a life dingy Vs a nuclear powered aircraft carrier unfortunately. Truth is irrelevant sadly.
I understand your pessimism, I genuinely do but as a rule the truth will out – it’s just a matter of time. A cliché I know but it’s generally accurate. Of course concerning vaccines we’ve this rather bizarre and arrogant impression that they’re the best thing since sliced bread – with little definitive evidence to back that up (even conventional vaccines we’ve had for decades, not these latest gene shot doppelgangers masquerading as such, which to anyone with eyes can see something is profoundly wrong).
I hate to bring politics into this but it’s clearly been a factor this time around. What’s at odds is this inversion of perception and scepticism where those who would’ve normally have sounded the alarm over big pharma and their insidious behaviour are the ones predominantly cheerleading this along – the typical left-leaning liberal who’s naturally suspicious of big business, perhaps rightly so, who’s traditionally and openly admit are out for profit (sometimes profit alone – but you have to sell a good product to succeed so at least we know where we stand). In this case though the left have this massive blindspot and it’s been those on the right who have ironically been the ones raising the flag. Why this is I’m yet to fully understand but I think it comes down to the left’s main ideological achilleas in that they’re proponents of everything government, so once they’re on board you can pretty much “sell” them anything if it’s sanctioned by authority – even if it comes from big business, those who they claim to distrust and require extensive regulation (that’s turned out well, the irony).
On a side note and not that I’m of any specific opinion, I’m not qualified, but even the existence of viruses and germ theory is contested, that’s why it’s called “theory”. Pharma is perhaps one of the largest if not the biggest lobbying business, becoming such a behemoth it’s almost beyond reproach, especially once it’s intertwined within government with no sign of abating so even basic questions like these are never even explored.
All being said, and I’m sure this has been proposed many times before, especially in regards to the pharmaceutical industry’s corruption but let’s hope their blatant overreach on this occasion will be the straw that breaks the camel’s back… at least eventually.
The narrative has collapsed faster than formerly healthy young athletes on the field after being jabbed.
The link below is to a Facebook page by Global News in Canada. The main report is by a 24 year old reporter, called Matthew Rodrigopulle, that seems to encourage parents of young children to receive a booster injection. Although, to be fair, the reporter does include an interview with a sceptical parent.
Just below the main report is a memorial for the reporter who has just died suddenly and unexpectedly of an unknown cause.
A word of warning: the top report contains distressing images of masked young children being injected.
https://ne-np.facebook.com/GlobalSaskatoon/videos/children-aged-5-to-11-eligible-for-covid-19-booster/5037172826387223/
I just looked again and the memorial for the reporter has disappeared.
Pretty well sums up everything I have been thinking and saying in my little corner of the medical world for the last year. Just added my signature.
I am extremely glad to see the term ‘so called vaccines’ being used.
Dr Shoemaker Double jabbed children in UK 5200-8200% more likely to die
https://rumble.com/v1hl9y3-dr-shoemaker-double-jabbed-children-in-uk-5200-8200-more-likely-to-die.html
This 4 minute video is a must watch.
Yellow Boards By The Road … for the love of humanity … and all the dead children
Monday 12th September 3pm to 4pm
Yellow Boards
Junction A332 Windsor Rd &
A329 London Road
Ascot SL5 8FE
Wednesday 14th September 11am to 12pm
Yellow Boards
Junction A4 Bath Road &
Pound Lane Sonning
Wokingham RG4 6TB
Thursday 15th September 11am to 12pm
Yellow Boards
Junction B3408 London Road &
Wokingham Road
Bracknell RG42 4FH
Stand in the Park Sundays 10.30am to 11.30am – make friends & keep sane
Wokingham
Howard Palmer Gardens Sturges Rd RG40 2HD
Bracknell
South Hill Park, Rear Lawn, RG12 7PA
Telegram http://t.me/astandintheparkbracknell
Unfortunately the timing of the release of this information is not ideal. From last Thursday until September 19th the attention of the world’s media is focused on the death of a 96 year old lady.
God Bless these brave doctors.