The Holy Grail of climate change alarmism is to link earthquakes and volcanic eruptions to humans driving SUVs. A recent article in the Conversation returned to this theme noting “evidence” that the loss of surface ice in Scandinavia “triggered numerous earthquake events between 11,000 and 7,000 years ago”. Alas, for Earth-moving purists, the ‘evidence’ quoted showed that the only tectonic plate action was to be found in the hard drive of a researcher’s computer. Substantial earthquakes might have occurred when ice sheets lifted at the start of deglaciation, but the possibility in this case seems to lie with “postglacial rebound models”.
The wider idea is to catastrophise the weight of water on the land said to be arising from higher rainfall levels. Author Matthew Blackett, an Associate Professor of Physical Geography at Coventry University, argues that during the summer monsoon season, the weight of up to four metres of rainfall compresses the crust both vertically and horizontally. When this water disappears, the effective ‘rebound’ destabilises the region “and increases the number of earthquakes that occur”. One might wonder if draining a four metre diving pool would have a similar localised effect, although it is likely the required six inches of base concrete would cope! On his University page, Blackett declares that he is ”passionate to ensure that his scientific research is positively impactful for society”.
The feisty Australian climate journalist Joanna Nova was not in a charitable mood in reviewing this “abject drivel”. Four metres of rain means a lot to homo sapiens, she observed, “but it’s hard to believe a plate of rock 30 kilometres thick would care less or even notice. It’s all absurd.” The author probably thinks he’s being provocative, “but he’s just proving what a wasteland Big Government Science is”, she added.
Climate breakdown narratives frequently rely on higher global precipitation – when they are not claiming increased droughts, of course – but a group of international scientists recently analysed specialist satellite data and found that rainfall trends in the 21st century have become less intense across the world. The work of water resources expert Demetris Koutsoviannis has shown that the highest frequency of global-scale extreme rainfall events occurred from 1960-1980. Since then, he reported, the frequency and intensity of rainfall events have “decreased remarkably”.
Associate Professor Blackett is also up for looking at how climate change “might” trigger volcanic eruptions. Research is said to have found a correlation between glacial-load changes on the Earth crust, and the occurrence of volcanic activity. About 5,500 years ago the Earth briefly cooled , glaciers began to expand in Iceland and local volcanic activity “markedly reduced”. But the research paper quoted notes: “Numerical models suggest that smaller changes in ice volumes over short time scales may also influence rates of mantle melt generation. However this effect has not been verified by the geological record.”
Any change in seismic activity caused by the removal of huge amounts of ice is likely to be counted in hundreds and thousands of years. The research quoted says the time lag between climate influence and resultant frequency change in eruptions is “unknown”, although a time lag of 600 years is calculated for the Iceland experience 5,500 years ago. Despite this finding, Blackett goes on to claim that eruptions at two Icelandic volcanoes, Grimsvotn and Katla “consistently occur during the summer period when glaciers retreat”. It is therefore “feasible” that ongoing glacial retreat due to global warming could potentially increase volcanic activity in the future, he concludes.
At least ice gives the alarmist something to work with, but this, alas, rules out the volcanoes based in more tropical climes. Writing last year – in the Conversation, it might not be surprising to learn – Associate Professor of Volcanology and Geoscience Communications at the University of Twente, Heather Handley, said climate change is increasing the severity of storms and other weather events and these “may trigger more volcanic eruptions”. Exhibit A was an recent eruption at Mount Semeru in Indonesia whose collapsing dome after a few days of heavy rain was said to have triggered an eruption. “Rain-influenced” volcanism is also proposed for other volcanoes around the world such as the Soufriere Hills volcano in the Caribbean, and Piton de la Fournaise on Reunion island.
Human-produced rain causing powerful volcanoes to suddenly explode – you couldn’t make this stuff up. Maybe Associate Professor Handley would benefit from some critical input into her climate activism. But this is unlikely to be supplied by contributors to the Conversation.
In fact, the Conversation is obligatory reading for those aiming to keep up to date with the latest on climate, Net Zero and woke intersectionality. Handley fits in well with much of this campaign, having been lead author in a recent paper titled ‘In Australasia, gender is still on the agenda in geosciences’. In 2020, UCL Geography Professors Mark Maslin and Simon Lewis argued that racism and the climate emergency shared common causes. The Conversation claims it is an independent source of news analysis, written by academic experts working with professional journalists. To the mainstream media, it offers “media-ready” experts and “free” content. It is funded by academic institutions and receives money from a number of billionaire foundations. Media partners include Reuters, PA Media, Reach (owner of the Mirror, Express, Daily Star and multiple U.K. newspapers) and Apple News.
Needless to say, it is a highly protected green activist space where ‘hurty’ comments disputing human-caused climate change are banned. In Australia, Jo Nova is not a fan, particularly since the local site declared that climate change deniers are dangerous: “We believe conversations are integral to sharing knowledge, but those who are fixated on dodgy ideas in the face of decades of peer-reviewed science are nothing but dangerous.” Giving said ‘deniers’ a place on the platform is said to contribute to a “stalled public discourse”.
In Nova’s view, the only reason the climate debate is ‘stalled’ is due to a belief in “fairy weather control… maintained by name-calling ‘denier’ and indignant fautrage, manipulated data and unvalidated models known to fail”. This debate, she continued, will only unstall when it is hammered out through conversation, “which obviously isn’t going to happen at the Conversation”.
Chris Morrison is the Daily Sceptic Environment Editor.
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