During the week ending May 26th 2023 there were 1,397 recorded deaths from heart failure. That’s 424 or, if you prefer it as a percentage, 44% higher than the ‘expected’ number of 973 deaths for the same week in 2020. That seems like a very significant change to me.
But why am I comparing the level of heart failure deaths in 2023 to the expected level of heart failure deaths in 2020? It’s because since 2020 the ‘expected’ level of deaths has been inflated by high levels of deaths since then. For a more detailed explanation of what’s happened please see a previous piece that was published in the Daily Sceptic on May 18th.
The Office for Health Improvements and Disparities reports that heart failure deaths were only 16% higher than expected during week ending May 26th 2023. I think this is misleading.
Table 1 illustrates how heart failure deaths in 2021 and 2022 being incorporated into the level of ‘expected’ deaths in 2023 has skewed the data. In 2020 we expected 973 heart failure deaths during week 21, in 2023 we appear to expect 1,209, an increase of 24%.
Put it another way; no excess deaths at all would be reported unless heart failure deaths in 2023 were more than 24% greater than in the same week in 2020. Nothing to see here, move along please!
Table 1 shows the issue:
These figures come from the Office for Health Improvements and Disparities and can be seen here. The data are available via a very neat selectable graphical tool but for those of you who like to get into the weeds there’s also a data download available.
If those were the expected deaths from heart failure, what was the actual level? Table 2 shows us the answer. In the final week of May 2023, 1,397 deaths were registered as being from heart failure in England. This was 16% higher than the 2023 ‘expected’ level, but 44% higher than the 2020 ‘expected’ level.
Of course, data from a single week aren’t necessarily representative of a general trend, and I confess there’s a bit of cherry-picking here. Nonetheless, heart failure deaths in the previous week were even higher at 1,468, the week before they were at 1,363. Maybe 1,397 isn’t an outlier?
We can look at the trend by simply comparing the data from the 10 weeks numbered 12-21 for both 2020 and 2023 as reported by the Office for Health Improvements and Disparities.
Figure 3 shows the level of registered deaths (orange line) in 2023 compared to the ‘expected’ level of heart failure deaths (blue line) in 2020. The grey bars show the variance between the two lines as a weekly percentage in line with the right-hand axis. You can see the 44% increase in week 21, the trend line has hovered between 25% and 30% over the past 10 weeks.
You may recall that the Chief Medical Officer published a paper ascribing the increase in heart failure to a reduction in the prescriptions for statins, an explanation soon debunked by Drs. Heneghan and Jefferson (see here). To my knowledge no further explanation has been floated by the authorities; rather, they’ve ignored the problem. After all, leave it long enough and the inflation of ‘expected’ heart failure deaths will make the excess magically disappear. Soon enough they may even be reporting that heart failure deaths are reducing year on year, even though they may still be much higher than the pre-pandemic level.
Finally, in Figure 4 I’ve shown the Office for Health Improvement and Disparities reported excess deaths for both heart failure and cancer. Bear in mind that the baseline in the case of heart failure has been inflated so the chart, arguably, understates heart failure excess deaths. The same is not so true for the cancer deaths. Expected deaths from cancer in 2023 are only 3% higher than they were for the same period in 2020. Over the 10 weeks from week 12-21 cancer deaths in 2023 have been only 1.7% higher than the expected level for the same period in 2020. This suggests the sharp rise in heart failure deaths is not due to a general increase in deaths from all causes such as might be caused by an ageing population.
Make of it what you will, but it seems to me that deaths from heart failure should be a real cause of concern. It’s not so long ago that the likes of Hancock and Gove were telling us that ‘one death is one death too many’. The lack of concern with the current level of excess deaths, many of them heart related – which the Government has now said it has no plans to investigate – highlights that this view was always sanctimonious tosh.
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“BBC journalist says her family will pay slavery reparations”
But presumably not so generously that they can’t afford their homes and a new BMW..?
Indeed
Trillions have already been transferred to descendents of slaves in the US through welfare, probably here too, and trillions in aid to African countries. How many more trillions will be needed before people realise that it’s not going to work. The only way Africa will become as prosperous as Europe is if Europe impoverishes itself. Ah, hold on….
Three downvotes already – looks like I’ve hit a nerve!
Six now. Loving the quality of these counterarguments.
I have upticked tof simply because you are right.
Thanks! I don’t mind people disagreeing with me – in fact I think a bit more intelligent, constructive and even heated to and fro here would be a good thing – but simply downticking without saying why seems kind of lame to me.
“Proposed ban on importing fur and foie gras will be dropped”
As our personal freedoms are eroded day by day, I applaud the government for ensuring that the few people who can afford to buy foie gras can still do so.
“Ron DeSantis is the future of conservatism”
I’m very much of the mind that DeSantis needs to stay in Florida and build up his power and support rather than going toe to toe with the blob until the tide begins to turn on woke. Where that leaves Trump is another matter. Four more years of the Democrats is unthinkable.
Surely the silent (vast) majority are anti-woke and just waiting for someone to legitimise and enable their expression of that. The trouble in the US is that the Democrats have stitched up the voting apparatus to such an extent that persuading a majority of the people is not enough in itself to win.
“Nicola Sturgeon’s approval rating plunges in wake of trans row”
Inept and corrupt, but as in England, the opposition is even more hopeless than the administration.
“Nicola Sturgeon’s approval rating plunges in wake of trans row”
Couldn’t happen to a nicer chap.
5G: from the makers of Covid and Climate Hoax.
We do not need 5G.
Stand in the Park Make friends & keep sane
Sundays 10.30am to 11.30am
Elms Field
near Everyman Cinema & play area
Wokingham RG40 2FE
Looking at the photos in the Mail’s piece on the Let Women Speak event in Glasgow and the opposition event, it looks as if the age demographic is quite different.
Regarding ChatGPT, no-one should be under any illusions. The teams who design and train all this stuff will doubtless be woke as hell, as will their bosses and their firms, and they will either actively want woke results or they will be paranoid about their AI tool speaking uncomfortable truths. Either way, you can bet money that it will be very hard to find an AI tool that is anything other than woke, left-wing and on-message about all the hot topics. Control of AI will give the left even more power than they already have.
If ChatGPT were a human, one might be very tempted to answer its pontifications by suggesting it broadens its reading. But like politicians, it seems only able to “think” popular consensus, not truth. You won’t find it saying, “I read an article by Philosopher X that really changed the way I see the world.”
It’s an interesting question – on what basis does an AI form an “opinion”. It can either be based on “consensus” or on some motivating criteria designed by those that “train” it. Either way it’s going to end up woke.
Why haven’t we joined the panic about intercontinental magically-steered weather balloons dropping dirty bombs on cows in Montana? Every other news outlet is full of it, and urging war with China on their Chinese-built computers.
Just a quick aside, the UK will ban the sale of new ice cars in 2030.
Being as they cannot control production and sales in other countries what’s stops us importing an ice car? Only a ban from uk roads would stop that and that would be a massive mistake and almost impossible to achieve!
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11714955/Proposed-ban-importing-fur-foie-gras-dropped.html
Foi-gras is required as a necessary food supplement for the ‘elites.’
Fur will be used in the manufacture of fake ‘meats.’
https://www.conservativewoman.co.uk/will-this-5g-challenge-fall-on-deaf-ears-too/
Michael Mansfield in court challenging the legitimacy of 5g roll out. This should be an interesting test of our judiciary.
https://www.spiked-online.com/2023/02/05/the-lethal-cost-of-lockdowns/
What about the 2,332 deaths registered on the MHRA Yellow Card system and the many more thousands of deaths reported on VARS System in the USA not to mention those in Europe again tens of thousands of deaths, then there’s Australia,Canada and New Zealand? Funny how they are all in the most “vaccinated” countries in the world. African countries on the other hand…..
Apparently African countries will suffer the initial onslaught of Billy’s “Catastrophic Contagion,” as an initial levelling up exercise.
https://www.conservativewoman.co.uk/its-what-big-brother-watch-doesnt-tell-us-that-counts/
A cracking article from James Delingpole demolishing the “leaks” from 77 Brigade et al. I am sure this will appear in tomorrow’s Round-Up but anyway here it is.
As James says, an article which includes Kneel as a purveyor of disinformation decidedly stinks.
The balloon story in proper perspective:
https://www.conservativewoman.co.uk/spy-balloons-flights-of-fancy/
And here’s Off-G ‘s decidedly blunt take on the matter:
https://off-guardian.org/2023/02/05/offg-on-the-chinese-spy-balloon/
The stupidity of TPTB gets more ridiculous by the day. The Alt Media simply has to –
Pop their balloons.
Oh look. Head of CBDC Job Advert.
Get your applications in, you have only until 7th February.
Some frantic back peddling by a councillor in Southend with regard to ’15-minute cities’.
https://www.southend.gov.uk/news/article/2794/statement-regarding-recent-15-minute-cities-and-oxford-trial-local-media-article
I congratulate the people of Southend. Keep up the pressure.
Here we go. No mention of blockchain technology and programmability. In other words, the totalitarian control of people the technology enables. I’ll keep using cash where I can.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-64536593