A reasonable criterion for Ukrainian victory would be if they managed to push Russia back to the February 24th borders. And a reasonable criterion for total Ukrainian victory would be if they managed to push Russia out of the Donbas and Crimea too. Is either of these goals achievable?
Back in March, Ukraine arguably won the battle of Kiev by forcing Russia to withdraw from the area surrounding its capital city. Then in September, Ukrainian forces recaptured about 10,000 square kilometres of territory to the east of Kharkiv. And just in the last week, they recaptured a large area in the south west, including the city of Kherson, following another Russian withdrawal.
Since early April, the net change in territory has been overwhelmingly in Ukraine’s favour. Yet this has come at a heavy price in terms of casualties. And since the attempted sabotage of the Kerch Bridge in early October, Russia has stepped up its attacks on Ukraine’s critical infrastructure.
Although Ukraine’s fighters have exceeded the expectations of many Western observers, it’s unclear how much more territory they can retake by force – especially given that thousands of newly mobilised Russian soldiers are arriving on the battlefield. So the question remains: can Ukraine win?
A flurry of articles published in the last few weeks suggest some U.S. officials are doubtful that they can.
On October 11th, the Washington Post reported that: “privately, U.S. officials say neither Russia nor Ukraine is capable of winning the war outright, but they have ruled out the idea of pushing or even nudging Ukraine to the negotiating table.”
Fast forward to November 9th, and NBC News reported that: “some U.S. and Western officials increasingly believe that neither side can achieve all of their goals in the Ukraine war and are eyeing the expected winter slowdown in fighting as an opportunity for diplomacy”.
“Kherson is the last major front line that could shift before winter,” officials told the network, “after which neither side is likely to make large advances”.
The next day, General Mark Milley – the highest-ranking officer in the U.S. Armed Forces – stated that “for negotiations to have a chance” there would need to be “mutual recognition” that a military victory “is maybe not achievable through military means, and therefore you need to turn to other means”.
According to the New York Times, he has also made the case in “internal meetings” that the Ukrainians “have achieved about as much as they could reasonably expect on the battlefield before winter sets in and so they should try to cement their gains at the bargaining table”.
The Wall Street Journal likewise reported that “officials in Washington are beginning to wonder aloud how much more territory can be won by either side, and at what cost”.
A few days after Milley’s comments, the Biden administration was said to be in “damage control mode”, as officials scrambled to maintain a “a unified front”. Yet one told Politico that “what White House officials are willing to say publicly and what they think privately are not necessarily the same”.
Another asked, “Why not start talking about [peace talks] before you throw another 100,000 lives into the abyss?”
It’s unclear what to make of all this. U.S. officials are known to use leaks strategically, so the quotations above could be some kind of ploy. Are they trying to lull Moscow into a false sense of security before Ukraine launches a major counteroffensive? It’s not impossible.
Taken at face value, however, they suggest that some in Washington believe Ukraine cannot win and it may be time to restart negotiations. This would make sense, given that America has already achieved its main strategic objectives.
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Noah seems to have put himself in a bit of a bind and is selecting sources which best support his contention that practically speaking Ukraine should not expect a right to self determination and that “siding” with support for their military actions was likely only to condemn them to a protracted war. Now these were reasonable positions to hold. The point that the US has never allowed unfettered self determination of satellite states (most notably Cuba) is true. The point that lacking real politic in war can lead to endless conflict and death is also a reasonable concern (Noah originally was signalling the conflict could go on for ten years).
The problem is because both these arguments are justified by an appeal to realism as distinct from idealism, they are not justified with reference to a nominal moral state, but with reference to the pursuit of the ideal bringing relative greater harm. But this argument is completely undone when – as I pointed out much earlier in the conflict – the evidence suggests the relative greater harm would have occurred if a miscalculated estimation of “real politik” were made. But this is precisely what has happened. Noah argued against backing Ukraine’s war effort to the extent the West has backed it, arguing doing so could easily prolong the war for as long as ten years and that greater pressure should be excerpted to bring Ukraine to the negotiating table. Well now, given Ukraine’s fighting spirit and success on the battle field, it is clear if they had had less support there is little doubt the balance of the battles would be shifted against Ukraine and that this would have been far more likely to closer to a position of stalemate and a prolonged war (accepting it could be argued – though not convincingly or with sound evidence I feel – that the balance would have been so far the other way as to have resulted in a similar progression but for Russia) This is a possibility I pointed out in earlier comments and is a point that I think has now been borne out by events.
It seems to me there is some parallel between Noah’s position and with those who said all should take the vaccine. They were calculating it was good and overruling the value of self determination. But they were simply wrong about its benefits and ignored its harms. And now like the pro vaccine position, instead of accepting he was most probably wrong, it seems to me Noah is cherry picking sources which support his position. Because yes, if you have enough will to ensure self determination, then the “real politic” position that is a miscalculation of your true power is simply less moral than the ideal.
This is the consequence of imperfect vision. It seems to me Noah Carl has to some extent become a mirror image of his position on Covid vaccination.
I think I speak for a few people including myself by saying what on earth?….Colour me baffled…!
If Ukraine had had no outside ‘help’ it seems to me that nothing would be much different, deals would have had to be done (and still will be done)…but thousands of Ukrainian lives wouldn’t have been lost…
Exactly what ‘success on the battlefield?’….they are now in Kherson, which they didn’t capture but strolled into after Russia left..again….they now have another non-functioning city to deal with.
The idea that the USA care one iota about Ukraine’s self determination, as you call it, seems to me to be pure pie in the sky. America have reiterated over and over that their main (and only) objective is to weaken Russia…which is clearly not happening in the way they thought it would.
The self-determination democracy propaganda is for the naive and is just required optics in the media war…
Do you ever look at America’s history? Which countries have they helped, or made better? Where have they upheld or spread democracy? I’m willing to learn if you have answers….
I’m sorry but I don’t think much will change over the next few months…Elensky is, in my opinion becoming, increasingly, an embarrassment, and I think, a bit psychotic to boot…
Ukraine will be a giant black hole of a money pit for the West for a very long time to come…
“If Ukraine had had no outside ‘help’ it seems to me that nothing would be much different,”
This is unlikely. There is a continuum between winning and losing. You seem to be saying you know Ukraine would have faired so badly without western weapons, they would skip over stalemate or protracted action and would be losing badly enough they would instead be negotiating to save their young men. You have no such knowledge. Between wining and losing is stalemate. The likelihood is they would not be doing so well, and would be mired in a greater losses but still fighting for their lives with the dedication and resolve they have amply demonstrated to the world. So in all regards a worse outcome than what we have now.
Sorry that’s baloney….and you know it.
If Ukraine didn’t need the weapons, why use them at all? Why is Elensky begging for more every day? Why have the West sent so many?
What on earth are you talking about?
No lights, no power, and Russia haven’t even really attacked any major infrastructure…explain what ‘doing well’ means?
What precisely is baloney? That they would skip over stalemate and prolonged destruction into the arms of your preferred narrative?
A false dichotomy.
They had numbers of troops in their favour. With the repeated waves of conscription the young men dying are being replaced by middle aged men. Russia is more than quadrupling its active manpower, and they are being supplied with the most modern equipment. Russia has also not deployed its heavy air power yet.
Stalemate is out of the question.
Also where have I said the US care about Ukraine’s self determination? Why should Ukraine care what the US thinks in that regard? You have constructed a straw man argument that is belied by Ukraines determination to succeed. Reducing the right to “self determination” to propaganda is curiously fatalist and actually illustrates the fundamental problem with the skeptical line adopted by Noah and others. It cynically decries all values of freedom, democracy and independence as unrealistic. How about if I were to say to you, your desire for medical freedom is a Chimera and so can properly be ignored and you should just get along with complying with being vaccinated? My curiously one dimensional view ignoring the ideals of self determination and freedom would rub you up the wrong way would they not? Why are you ignoring the evident resolve of the Ukrainian people themselves? Do you agree with Putin the people of Kherson were really ready to be Russian? That is evidently not the case flies in the face of the fact the Ukrainians have demonstrated an extremely strong will for self determination. Perhaps they are impossible idealists? But more likely they just simply feel strongly for their freedom and sovereignty. People tend to find that feeling when such things are under threat of being forcibly removed.
If you said any of that to me I’d be, primarily, baffled! You seem to be talking to yourself in your own private echo chamber…you are also just talking about some airy-fairy ideal..not the real Ukraine or it’s people…
Where have you read anything about ‘what the people of Ukraine’ want?
Why do you think you know?
The whole point is it’s irrelevant to the USA, which part of ‘fighting to the last Ukrainian has you stumped?
This strong will for self-determination doesn’t seem to be shared by the estimated 20% who have left the country, and the 20% or more who are in the liberated regions.
The US will be quite happy to see the EU and the morons running the UK shovelling money into Ukraine for decades to come. It’ll help make up for the fact that hardly any of the EU nations pay their NATO subs.
Whether Germany will WANT (or be able) to pay to rebuild the highly corrupt Ukraine – when their own economy is being wrecked by the self-inflicted energy “crisis” is another matter.
I agree..just like the scamdemic, there seems to be the ‘story’ they talk about in the MSM, and the reality…and never the twain….!
The fallout for Europe is going to be horrendous, in many ways..not just the fact that they are pretending they’ve got money/aid they haven’t got, and cannot give..but the reality of armaments meant for Ukraine and going ‘missing’ in Europe..those guns will kill real people!!
Both Europol and Interpol (and any common sense sceptic) have been warning of these things for months…but when you pretend you are not arming Nazi’s….??
https://thegrayzone.com/2022/11/15/blowback-italian-azov-tied-nazi-terror/
Italian police announced a series of raids against the neo-Nazi Order of Hagal organization. Accused of stockpiling weapons and planning terror attacks, the group has established operational ties to the Ukrainian Azov Battalion….The “Hagal” members are accused of plotting terrorist attacks on civilian and police targets. A sixth member of the Hagal group, now considered a fugitive, is in Ukraine and embedded with the Azov Battalion, a neo-Nazi paramilitary group that has been incorporated into the Ukrainian National Guard.
Without western support before and during the Russian attack on Kiev, the Russians would have attained their goal by now of absorbing the whole of Ukraine. Having helped them prevent a Russian walk-over we could not then allow them to be destroyed by a lack of armaments.
The biggest weakness for the western position (as it has been, don’t know about the future) is Iraq2 and Afganistan.
Russia didn’t and doesn’t want ‘all of Ukraine’….that has never been their stated objective….Putin very clearly stated what the objectives were from the beginning.
You don’t have to believe them..but there is no actual basis for what you are saying….
Presumably when you start from a false base everything from there on has to be wrong?
As I often think with these articles..you are asking the wrong question….
The real question is can America win, surely?
This proxy war just happens to be in Ukraine, but that isn’t Americas main concern..I think they have made that very plain themselves.
This is all about defeating and weakening Russia…to the last Ukrainian if necessary.
Certainly, Ukraine, having suffered the ‘America effect’, will not be a ‘functioning’ country for a very long time…
Of course, I can’t know but looking at what is happening globally my question is can America fight Russia, China, and possibly Iran and North Korea, all of whom they have recently threatened, and all at the same time?
The Heritage Foundation, a highly influential think tank in Washington DC, which compiles an index of military defence, recently classed American military hard power as ‘weak’..(the index is based on being able to fight on two fronts at once …)and is based on the available amount of weapons, soldiers etc…
Of course this didn’t go down well in the capitol, but the MSM never talk about America’s military shortcomings, or the fact that all of the West are running out of money and weapons……
How can the USA defend its allies, for instance Israel, if they have to start fighting China as well?
All questions the US needs to ask itself….and perhaps is starting to…
And what has really changed in Ukraine since Putin started his SMO?..in spite of all of this money, might and power arrayed against Russia….shouldn’t it be all over?
“Certainly, Ukraine, having suffered the ‘America effect’, will not be a ‘functioning’ country for a very long time…”
In what ways, precisely, has the will of America usurped the will of the Ukrainian’s in this battle? I know the US had a hand in Ukrain’s politics but are you saying the sneaky American’s hypnotised with Ukrainian people into wanting to be independent of Russia? Is it hypnotism that is making their men fight so hard? This narrative of yours is flatly ignoring the will of the Ukrainian’s themselves. Did the US plant Zelensky knowing he would be a great wartime leader? Seems that flies in the face of all the evidence politicians don’t have a clue who will make a good leader.
Great wartime leader!! LOL! Now I know you’re on something…let’s leave this shall we and give someone else a chance…?
You are listening to too much Western propaganda. Zelensky is a duplicitous, self-serving narcissist.
…even the MSM (before the great whitewash of 2022 began) had numerous articles about his dodgy financial dealings..(The Pandora Papers)…
Both the USA/NATO and Poland have confirmed that the missile that landed in Poland yesterday were most likely part of Ukrainian’s air defence.
That hasn’t stopped him from going public asking for NATO to attack Russia…absolutely unforgivable for the little weasel to try to drag everyone into WW3 on a lie…
You could as well have written successful democratic politician instead of that. Yes he is, and he’s absolutely as bad as the whole other bunch of them, regardless of country of origin. However, what was the point?
I’d argue that if you think he’s a democratic politician, you and I have very different ideas of what one looks like…do you mean he was democratically elected? He was, but on the main election promise of stopping the fighting in the Donbass and seeking peace with Russia!?….Since then he’s banned nearly all of the media, and all other political parties…and mired the country in a proxy war…
As he’s banned everyone who can people who are unhappy with the situation appeal to?
I suspect more people are beginning to catch-on…..this is in relation to the missiles in Poland….
Responding to Zelenskyy’s comments, a diplomat from a Nato country in Kyiv told the Financial Times: “This is getting ridiculous. The Ukrainians are destroying [our] confidence in them. Nobody is blaming Ukraine and they are openly lying. This is more destructive than the missile.”
It is amusing that the Polish missile incident has proved that Zelensky lies.
A large part of Ukraine is willingly part of Russia now. The other part is controlled from Kiev.
The devastated city if Mariupol is being rebuilt by Russia, because it is part of Russia.. Contrast this with the Kiev part which is being slowly reduced to powerlessness, but without the destruction of civilian housing that characterised Ukraine’s approach to “defending” its own territory.
Russia has achieved what it has with substantially fewer troops than Ukraine. The slowdown of Russian advances in summer was in the main due to tens of thousands of Russian troops coming to the end of their 6 month extended contracts, so their forces became even more outnumbered by Ukraine. Despite this the only advances Kiev made were where Russia withdrew its forces.
Even during this disparity of troops, the Russians still managed to reduce opposing forces (in my opinion, primarily due to interference in military matters by the civilian government) for propaganda purposes).
And now 300,000-plus newly equipped Russian troops are due to enter the conflict. They are faced by an exhausted army from which many professional soldiers have been lost, equipped with a rag-tag mix of obsolescent armour, with a virtually non-existent air force and a high proportion of third line conscripts of up to retirement age.
Any realist in the West must surely realise that Kiev is not in any position to fulfil the grandiose claims they are making, and that if Russia really does take the gloves off, there is only one conclusion.
Of course the West would love a winter break so that it could attempt to restock its depleted arsenals. Of course Russia will not go along with that deceit.
Uke war is a NATO war. Take out NATO and the Uke falls. NATO ie the US DoD can’t fund the proxy war forever.
Reminded of analysis of the US Civil War. The north fought with one hand tied behind its back. Russia is fighting with its left hand only. If it wanted to it could mobilise a million and crush the Uke-NATO in a few months. So no, the Uketopia can’t win, and has lost 20% of its country which was already 90% pro Russian. Time to end the proxy war and end the money money laundering. I am more interested in the bio-labs and if they really are making aspirin or pesticides….or maybe the smallpox or ebola scariant instead.
When the USA has achieved its objectives, Zelensky will be told to negotiate or he’ll get no more military support and will be forced to do it and inevitably get worse terms.
The fact that he hasn’t been told to do it yet means the USA hasn’t yet met all its objectives. I expect one of those is to severely weaken the German economy (and therefore the EU) by damaging its highly-energy-intensive manufacturing base. That is well underway, but won’t be achieved this side of winter.
I think you could be right….but I think some ‘cracks’ are appearing…America is now heavily pushing the ‘we all have to isolate China’ line…something European leaders (including Scholtz) have made clear they are unwilling to do…..
Whether America will ‘allow’ them to disobey it is another question..
This is an interview with Evan A. Feigenbaum, who is currently vice president for studies at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.
From 2001 to 2009, he served at the U.S. State Department as deputy assistant secretary of state for South Asia (2007–2009), deputy assistant secretary of state for Central Asia (2006–2007), and many other Government positions…
He knows what he’s talking about in relation to the USA and their foreign policy strategies…well worth a listen..
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wz_8N32DiLY
Keynote: Conversation with Evan Feigenbaum on the U.S. and the Indo-Pacific Region
Resident Biden think inflation is 0%, so who cares what the Communist Democrats think.