Imagine that you have an aggressive friend.
He’s a nice guy and usually quite honest, but he tends to pick fights that he doesn’t always finish. For years, he has been goading a group of guys that you see at the gym. There have been a few scuffles where you kept your distance, but you worry that soon something big will kick off. One day you walk outside the gym, and the guys are there gearing up for a fight. While you try to calm them down, your friend who started the fight runs away. You get beaten to a pulp and end up in hospital. Do you remain friends with the guy? Probably not.
This is effectively Europe’s position vis-à-vis America when it comes to sanctions against Russia.
The present conflict between Russia and Ukraine began, in a limited way, back in 2014. European leaders initially said they wanted nothing to do with it. They were content with their economic ties to Russia, and did not want a major flashpoint so close to their borders. Europe had taken much heavier and sustained losses than the United States in the Second World War, so they were much more inclined toward peace.
When the war kicked off in February of this year, Europe signed up to the fight. In public, European leaders have been gung-ho in offering their support to Ukraine. But if you read between the lines, you can see they’re unsure if taking part is a good idea. European leaders convinced themselves that they could limit their involvement to a few piecemeal sanctions and some weapons systems. On this reading, it would cost European countries a pretty penny, but it wouldn’t break the bank.
In recent weeks, as Russia has begun starving Europe of natural gas in the run-up to winter, it has become clear that Europe’s support for Ukraine will break the bank – assuming Goldman Sachs and others are wrong about gas prices falling, as I argue in UnHerd. In fact, it will not just break the bank; it will also break the factory and the bakery and most other facets of the economy. European leaders worry – sometimes publicly – about civil unrest and deindustrialisation; that is, a complete demolition of European industry.
When the leaders of these European countries turn around to see what America is doing, they see it sitting pretty. America has plenty of energy. True, the war is putting upward pressure on prices, and this has been hard for President Biden in the polls. But America is not facing a major economic crisis. The American response to the concerns of European leaders is pretty blasé too.
In their kinder moments, the Americans make promises to the Europeans (about Liquid Natural Gas, for example) that both sides know they cannot keep. In their unkinder moments, they laugh at the Europeans for running fanciful green energy schemes and allowing Russia – who most Western European leaders did not view as their adversary until recently – to gain control over their energy supplies.
Right now, Europe’s leaders are watching the Americans sneak away while they face a hefty beating. After this winter, many European countries will wake up cold, sore, and alone in a hospital bed. If their leaders pick up the phone and call the Americans, they will hear a voice on the other line suggesting they do it again next winter, assuming the war in Ukraine continues. Does anyone honestly believe that the alliance between Europe and America will survive this?
Not a chance. The alliance will break. Either the mainstream parties will gradually walk away from the sanctions and then, ever so slowly, renormalise relations with Russia. Or they’ll get forcibly ejected through a vote, and populist parties will tear up the sanctions and perhaps even pull out of NATO.
Are the Americans and the Europeans aware of this possibility? Whispers suggest they are.
Last week, The Washington Post reported that “White House officials are growing increasingly alarmed about Europe’s energy crisis”, which could “put new strains on a U.S.-Europe alliance that has proven surprisingly resilient since the start of the war”. Yet the fact that it has taken the Americans until now to realise this, when it should have been obvious immediately, means that we’re probably beyond the point of no return.
As I have written elsewhere: historians will look back on winter 2022-23 and ask why the Europe’s political leaders behaved so recklessly and the Americans encouraged them to do it, and wonder why. To which I can only suggest: war enthusiasm; absurd overconfidence; extremely poor economic analysis; political inertia, and a lack of proper leadership.
Philip Pilkington is a macroeconomist and investment professional. You can follow him on Twitter here and subscribe to his Substack newsletter here.
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“Law to ban trans and gay conversion therapy will not be in the King’s Speech”
Not that I’m in favour, but is there one policy idea that hasn’t seen a U-turn..?
Symptomatic of people who believe in nothing, floundering around with what came out of a focus group, and counting the votes. Is there anybody prepared to do the right thing, and not the current thing..?
Telegraph “Since entering No 10, the Prime Minister has set out to reassert the basic Conservative virtues of competence and pragmatism.” He has not u-turned on his current implementation of that.
Why there’ll never be peace in the Middle East and these ”Free Palestine” protestors are all just delusional useful idiots;
”If the Palestinians were at all interested in “self-determination” along the lines of Biden’s stubbornly delusional “two-state solution” — in which “Palestine” coexists peacefully with an Israeli neighbor — they would already have it. Gaza is the jihadist launchpad because Israel withdrew from every bit of it in 2005 — so the Palestinians could have self-determination . . . whereupon they self-determined that Hamas was what they wanted. Meantime, the Israelis would like nothing better than to wash their hands of the West Bank, too. But the dirty little not-so-secret is that there is no Palestinian vision of “self-determination” and “dignity” that would abide a Jewish state in the middle of what Palestinians insist is Allah’s turf.
This is not a Hamas thing. It’s a Palestinian thing.
Have you seen any Palestinian polling lately? There’s not a lot of it, since the West Bank and Gaza are not the easiest places from which to collect reliable data, but there is some. Here’s one from the Palestinian Center for Policy and Survey Research. It tells us that, by a margin of 58 percent to 20 percent, Palestinians would prefer a renewal of the intifada (the “armed struggle”) to peaceful negotiations aimed at ending “the occupation.” That’s consistent with last year’s polling, as is the finding that about seven in ten Palestinians oppose the two-state solution.
Here’s some more: “President” Abbas must continue to resist having an election in the West Bank because, if one were held, he’d be thrashed by Hamas chief Ismail Haniyeh, 58 percent to 37 percent. And that’s with Haniyeh holed up in his well-appointed Qatari headquarters, from which he and his subordinates joyously watched news reports of the October 7 barbarities in real time.”
https://www.nationalreview.com/2023/10/hamas-is-the-symptom-not-the-disease/
I know that every bit of scepticism has disappeared from this site, but do you know who funds the Palestinian Centre for Policy and Survey research?..Does anyone even care anymore about these kinds of details…?
because before, during Covid, these are the questions we would have automatically asked…
No one knows who funds this group..they don’t publish it..that should give people a clue? Probably Israel and the CIA….
Plus millions of people are joining these marches, not as pro-Palestinians, or anti-Israelis, but as peace protesters who want an end to the killing and suffering.
If people wanting to protest against the continued murder of thousands of innocent children are counted as delusional useful idiots..there you go..that’s me labelled …
..I assure you it’s better than what I think about people calling for mass-murder and genocide.
But if it’s true that the majority of Palestinians do not want to live in a two-state and peaceful kind of set-up then what is the solution? It’s surely a fact that any reasonable person should accept that if the Arabs lay down their arms then peace would be a reality, but if the Israelis lay down their weapons and dropped their guard they would be annihilated. You can’t reason with radicalised people who are hell-bent on murder and destruction. But also, Israel cannot possibly kill/capture all of the terrorists. So therein lies the dilemma. How to move forward?
Mogs, truly I don’t want to fall-out with anyone here, but honestly I could post mountains of evidence that it is Israel who don’t want a two-state option…there’s tons of it.
There is just as much evidence of radicalised Jews calling for the death of all Palestinians, similarly, of illegal Israeli settlers killing and injuring Palestinians who have been thrown off their land. All of these ‘settlements’ are illegal under International Law….
There is also plenty of evidence of Israel indiscriminately bombing dozens of schools and hospitals over the last decade..
This is a list of war crimes against Israel compiled by the wrongly maligned Yanis Varoufakis….
https://www.yanisvaroufakis.eu/2023/10/15/list-of-war-crimes-and-crimes-qualifying-as-genocide-committed-by-israel-in-gaza-since-7th-october-2023/
There is also a very very long list of Israeli transgressions against International Law….
I’m not trying to prove a point here particularly… just trying to show that there are just as many reasons as to why millions of people don’t support Israel blindly…and don’t accept the agenda they are asking us to.
It’s pretty easy to find ‘evidence’ either way to confirm any bias….
The terrorists, (no doubt sitting safely in their underground bunkers) I agree, have no thought for the ordinary Palestinian citizens..but that can’t mean we can’t have compassion for them, and most of the world just don’t want to stand by and watch it happen ….
The main object of most right-thinking people I would argue, is to get a ceasefire, and some humanitarian aid to the people of Gaza…
it’s a hideous comparison but in ten days, Israel’s bombing of Gaza has killed more than three times as many children — 1,756 as of yesterday — than those that have been killed in nearly two years of war in Ukraine.
The West would never support it in Ukraine, and we cant support it now…
….it’s got to stop….
Totally second all of the above. Thank you for continuing to post at such length and so eloquently about the issues.
..that’s kind of you, thanks. I’m really struggling with it all actually.…but I do believe it will taint us all forever if we watch people being bombed and killed day after day without speaking about it…and pleading for it to stop.
Lord Sumption speaking complete sense on Israel’s response to the Hamas atrocities (55:03) and the protests (11:45).
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=naDOp8PMb_I
Yeah, there is no better way to stand up stupidity and intolerance than calling everyone you dislike politically face-punchable.
Bill Maher starts off ok but in the end it’s clear he is just as biased and intolerant as the people he criticises.
Spot on
I’ve not watched it but you’re probably right, as usual. However, what I do find interesting is that Maher is middle of the road mainstream liberal (not one of the new breed of illiberal liberals) and he seems to be getting increasingly outspoken and angry, feeling like he is being pushed into a corner. It gives me some tiny sliver of hope that our drift into awfulness could be arrested if the other side overplay their hand.
There are some things so obvious that to fail to acknowledge them or deny them undermines all credibility.
That is presumably why Gates openly admits Covid vaccines aren’t very good. His solution though is better vaccines,
And Maher admits the lunacy of the political left in the US, but I think he just wants better leftists and still promotes the nastiness that the right are dangerous lunatics.
There is no change of course as much as an acknowledgement of the risk of being steered off course by their own side.
If by “better leftists” he means less extreme ones perhaps that is a step in the right direction? Or is the only good leftist a dead one? (Joke).
Perhaps if he has slightly changed his mind once he can do so again. But you may well be right.
I don’t like the word extreme. It’s loaded and so often used dishonestly., to trap the person on the other side of the argument.
My main problem with Maher is that he promotes the idea that Trump is an evil monster and more generally that the right is dangerous. Trump has his flaws but he’s not an evil monster. And the notion that he is, is creating a lot of damage not just in America but here as well.
Well an example of “extreme” vs “less extreme” would be that you believe in higher taxes but also in absolute freedom of speech
I agree about Trump. I have never understood the reaction to him. My metropolitan liberal acquaintances seem to object to him on the grounds that he would make a vulgar dinner party guest. I suppose the more cynical and savvy on the left vilify him because they fear him
Thats the left for you. They believe that with enough money and enough government intervention everything can be made perfect. Essentially it is ‘Designing the world how I want it to be’.
In fact, living your life and letting other people live their lives, accepting there will be compromises and trade-offs is so much easier, cheaper and fulfilling. Yet they are all tripping over their bottom lip because they can’t get everyone to kowtow to their vision of perfect.
I think comedians should push the boundaries so I’ll give him that..it’s just that they always have to spoil it.…..
.. he noticeably leaves Obama out of his ‘hate list’ ..so while criticising the young students for their ‘anti-Israel letter’ as he puts it…. he doesn’t mention the thousands of innocent people that died in Obama led wars…
Isn’t school and college when you get to be young and stupid? What’s Obama’s excuse?
A good article with a poor headline by Nick Cohen in The Spectator (it’s far more about Labour than the Tories):
https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/the-tory-war-on-woke-wont-work/
https://x.com/nickhudsonct/status/1713980307135725619
Well worth memorising!
It’s far shorter than my last scoping of the next scam.
Hudson’s Razor being sharpened.
Best wishes
Mike
A post just seen on Telegram from Steve Kirsch:
Breaking: You can now sue the mRNA COVID vaccine manufacturers for damages and the FDA is required to take the COVID vaccines off the market. Why? Adulteration. The plasmid bioactive contaminant sequences were NOT pointed out to the regulatory authorities. It’s considered adulteration. I just got off the phone with Professor Byram Bridle and Dr. Robert Malone on this.
Emergency Use Medication Means Mainly Untested – latest leaflet to print at home or forward to politicians, media, friends online
Sadly it’s a very long time since I have agreed with Janet Daley in the Telegraph..on any subject..
Dan Hannan was also saying similar things yesterday..
So yet again, I feel like a ‘common sense’ tap needs turning on…
Is there honestly something difficult to understand about the fact that a ‘gay’ person, might well understand that many countries, including Palestine, are not ‘gay friendly’..but at the same time, as a human being, is able to hold a second thought in their head that they want to see the indiscriminate killing of innocent children brought to an end?
That this isn’t an either or situation? Neither idea is mutually exclusive….
Ariel Gold אריאל
@ArielElyseGold
We know, as Jews, the lie that if we accept transport, if we evacuate, our lives will be spared. We know what it is like to have entire family lines wiped out. We know genocide when we see it. We are seeing it now in Gaza. Never Again means for anyone. NEVER AGAIN IS NOW!
I was recently call a poltroon and a halfwit by a poster who was unhappy when I refused to play his game of “my facts are the truth and yours are a lie”.
One of the points he was making was that there are no natural resources in Israel so the US involvement is purely altruistic (I paraphrase).
However, one of the key facts that I have not heard mentioned anywhere recently is about the Gaza Marine gas reserve, which is within Palestinian jurisdiction but whose development Israel appears to obstructing.
I imagine that this gas reserve has reached new levels of value in the Western world. Who wouldn’t want a piece of that cake?
…I did mention a similar thing, only in passing, a few days ago…this article from 2021 gives a bit of an overview (why do British companies, in this case British Gas, always seem to have a finger in every pie?!)
Of course as they always say if Palestinians are involved this is putting money into Hammas’s coffers..
Which also means it’s the ‘go to’ excuse/reason to never give Palestinian people in Gaza their fair share?
https://www.aljazeera.com/opinions/2021/6/21/palestines-forgotten-oil-and-gas-resources
I often have a look at Aljazeera’s output. What might not be common knowledge that some of the Hamas top dogs are based in Qatar, where of course Aljazeera is based. Isn’t it likely that there is a certain amount of global revenue via that route?
…oh yes…we’ve all learned that lesson I think…always question where the info comes from….and proceed accordingly…
..is there any media left that isn’t compromised by ‘dirty’ money?
I must have missed that. Sorry, but still worth repeating for those who missed it and to get your link.
…no need..I don’t think everyone can look at everything, every day..so reminders about anything are good…plus this one I’ve posted today is a different one anyway….
Plus I forgot to say whoever your troll was…USA and altruistic in the same sentence…LOL! Good one…hahaha….
In a world full of bad news..at least this is good…..yay!!
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-10-20/moderna-s-lost-mojo-leaves-wall-street-in-wait-and-see-mode?leadSource=uverify%20wall
Moderna Shaves Off $7 Billion in Value After Pfizer Warning…Stock plunged as rival noted declining demand for Covid shots
Moderna Inc., which shot to fame when it became one the first companies to bring the world Covid-19 vaccines, has been searching for its next big thing ever since.
Investors have bailed in droves as waning demand for shots and treatments for the virus drove an eight-day losing streak in the stock.”
Remember the other conflict?
This new interview with former German Chancellor Gerhard Schroder, in the Berliner Zeitung Newspaper has claimed that the United States prohibited Ukraine from conducting peace negotiations with Russia in March 2022, although the parties had a chance to agree to end the conflict.
Schroder said that while representatives of Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky were open to making concessions on key issues such as renouncing efforts to join NATO, the US did not agree to peace talks.
The Ukrainians did not agree to peace because they were not allowed to. They first had to ask the Americans about everything they discussed,” said Schroder, who was asked to help mediate the peace negotiations between Ukrainian and Russian officials in Istanbul weeks after Moscow launched its military operation in February 2022.
“My impression is that nothing could happen because everything else was decided in Washington”
https://www.presstv.ir/Detail/2023/10/22/713213/Ukrainian-not-allowed-agree-peace-Russia-exgerman-leader
..this would seem to lend credence to the former Israel Prime Minister Naftali Bennett’s claims that he was set to broker a peace deal between Russia and Ukraine but his efforts were stopped by the major Western powers.
Bill Maher´s 8 minutes are brilliant!
I agree..even though, in the main, I don’t agree with one thing he said…
Its good to see a comedian actually saying something..even pushing the boundaries..