Less than a fortnight ago, signals emanating from Russia indicated that the Kremlin was open to the possibility of a peace deal with Ukraine that would allow Russia to fix much of its gains, while requiring permanent neutrality for Ukraine. It was said that Moscow might be munificent enought to consider such terms. With energy prices sky-high and winter on the way, and with Ukraine having yet to show any decisive battlefield victories – the defence of Kyiv notwithstanding – Putin hoped once again to break Western resolve.
This evidenced a fundamental misunderstanding of Ukrainian and Western confidence in the overall position: economic, political and military. Despite Moscow’s bluffs to the contrary, expert consensus in the West was that Russia’s economy was teetering towards collapse; that its political isolation (forcing Russia to seek arms supplies from Iran and North Korea, and bringing Finland and Sweden into NATO) was profound, and that its military had shown itself to be ill-trained, undisciplined and generally no match in combined-arms operations for the determined, numerically superior and increasingly well-equipped Ukrainian armed forces.
All eyes were on the highly-anticipated Kherson counter-offensive in the south. Having isolated Russian forces on the West bank of the Dniepro River, and having conducted a number of “shaping operations” in the weeks prior, could Ukraine now inflict a decisive battlefield defeat on the Russian army? The hope was that such a victory would silence the nay-sayers in the West, bolster support amongst European populations for increased energy costs over the winter and open up the possibility of further supplies of heavy weaponry to Ukraine.
Yet, after several days, and under a reporting blackout imposed by Kyiv, the Kherson counter-offensive had not produced (except to well-informed military pundits, such as those at Mriya Report) any obvious gains. We were cautioned to be patient, and to wait for this steady, careful and well-prepared advance towards the now-stranded Kherson garrison to proceed at its own pace.
Then, reports began to emerge last week of an advance by Ukrainian forces in an entirely unexpected direction: from Kharkiv in the north-east, towards Balakliya. It started as gossip, but then it became clear that the Russian lines had been broken, and that the Ukrainian armed forces were pushing rapidly eastwards towards Shevchenkove, on their way to Kupiansk: a major railway hub which – if captured – would cut off Russian forces further south in Izyum and potentially enable the encirclement of a large number of Russian forces. There was hardly time to process this staggering possibility before news arrived that Ukrainian forces had recaptured Kupiansk, then Izyum, then Vovschansk – pushing the Russian invaders back inside Russian territory in several areas. Renewed fighting around Lyman, Lysychansk and even Donetsk City was also reported, and by the weekend’s close, Russia had retreated from almost all of Kharkiv Oblast.
This stunning wide-scale defeat (or rather, rout) of Russian forces – with large quantities of Russian matériel captured in the process – has not been seen since WWII and, according to those better-informed than me, will be studied in military staff colleges for many years to come. The Ukrainian tactic of sending mobile mechanised units deep into the soft underbelly of Russian-held territory, riding straight in to the centre of a town or village, guns blazing, before dismounting and laying down suppressive small-arms fire while waiting for their armoured groups to reinforce them (who did reinforce them) showed the kind of daring, competence and confidence that is the stuff of military legend. It’s given rise to the term blyatskrieg, combining the Russian swearword – always on the lips of Russian soldiers – with the term for a lightning advance by a superior and well-organised force.
But there is one unanswered question. Had it always been Kyiv’s intention that the much-publicised Kherson counter-offensive would be a feint, designed to draw away Russian forces from the Kharkiv region? Or had Kyiv – through careful advanced planning – merely given themselves the option to take advantage of such a possibility, should it arise? Given the ongoing counter-offensive around Kherson, which (as of going to print) has led to negotiations for the complete surrender of some Russian units in that area, it seems clear that Kyiv is fully committed to the recapture of Kherson – and will achieve it. And by delivering a crushing and humiliating blow to the Russian forces, Ukraine has firmly gained the initiative – causing panic in Moscow and on Russian state TV.
Those who argued from the beginning of this latest round of aggression that the West should arm Ukraine with everything it could muster will feel justifiably vindicated by this display of strategic brilliance from the Ukrainian armed forces. But it also shows that those who wanted to abandon Ukraine were misguided to believe in the inevitability of a Russian victory. Ukraine has demonstrated that it knows how to use the equipment that has been provided. But this should not come as a surprise, after years of NATO training: Ukraine does not possess a second-rate military force, merely living off scraps from NATO countries, but rather a thoroughly purposeful, highly-trained and motivated force that can – and will – achieve total victory against a brutal and criminal aggressor.
Providing the military equipment that Ukraine needs to end this war swiftly is now the order of the day. Whether they be Abrams, Leopards or Challenger main battle tanks: send them. Whether they be ATACMS or other longer-range battlefield missiles: send them. Whether they be F-16s, Gripens, A-10s or other fixed-wing aircraft: send them. Let’s end this war quickly. The videos of Ukrainian civilians greeting their liberating soldiers with unalloyed delight after months of occupation will inspire, but should also inform the West that not doing everything possible to prevent the ongoing brutality, rapes, murders and forced deportations (on a massive scale) of Ukrainian civilians will weigh on our conscience for a very long time.
It’s a time for choosing. But it’s much easier to choose to be on the winning side.
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“But it’s much easier to choose to be on the winning side”
We didn’t have to be on either side: it simply doesn’t matter to us where are the borders in Eastern Europe, which bits are governed from Moscow or Kiev. It’s not as if Ukraine is an historic ally of the UK or that the Ukrainian people have been our friends for centuries, both of which would apply to Portugal, for example.
And the argument that we must oppose Russian military action on moral grounds is made ridiculous by our own actions over the past few decades.
You seem astonishingly relaxed about the many tens of thousands of deaths we can expect here this winter, especially if its a bad one, the massive increase in unemployment that is coming and the descent into poverty that faces many millions. It’s almost as if, like our politicians, you despise the British people, their interests and wishes.
This war is also part of the covid cover-up & the great reset.
Research has shown that the toxic spike protein is race specific, Russian ethnic folk are highly susceptible to the toxicity of it. A vast majority of Ukrainian ethnic folk are not.
Join the dots folks.
Plus why are troops with US insignia on their sleeves embedded within Ukrainian troops who were being taken to hospital as shown on French television?
Independent journalists from the frontline have observed & reported that the withdrawal was made from certain small towns & villages because the remaining civilian population supported Ukraine. It was tactical & pragmatic. Why lose men defending your enemy?
This is the same argument as used about the wars if the twentieth century. “The Germans o my want a bit more territory and what is [insert country name] to us.” Or “USSR is entitled to a buffer around it so why not allow it to subordinate Eastern Europe”. In both cases the death and suffering went in for years and far exceeded the likely deaths from military defence of those places.
Declaring war on Germany in 1939 was an utterly moronic decision that didn’t save either Poland or the Sudetenland from poverty-stricken tyranny,resulted in the entirely avoidable deaths of hundreds of thousands of Britons and allies, screwed our finances and wrecked the countryside.
Your comment suggests that you think we didn’t go to war. in 1939.
Do you think we should have continued fighting against the Soviet Union after the German surrender?
False comparison…the ‘world’ isn’t at war…and the UK is not under any direct threat, neither is Europe or the USA…
There have been dozens of battles over borders…India and Pakistan, India and China, China and Russia, US and Mexico, Slovakia and Hungary, Bosnia etc..etc…I don’t remember the UK jumping in to defend anyone or thinking we would be next!?
This border dispute would be no different except the USA under the guise of NATO..want it to be different. They have openly claimed they want Russia weakened and the country broken up. Ukraine are merely the latest patsies in the proxy war…
We have knackered our energy supplies up which will result in yet more horrendous borrowing for the forceable future, donated several billion worth of cash and arms we cannot afford, and pushed Russia away from the West and into the arms of China and India. Increasing our reliance on our ever dependable ‘friends’ in OPEC.
On the plus side the EU gains a deeply corrupt, bankrupt new member.
Whoever wins or loses this war, we have gained nothing of value and yet lost so much.
A slightly different NPC meme for this article.
It is hard not to read a phrase like that and not despise and ultimately fear the warmongers on “our” side.
And the entire gist of this article shows that they aren’t satisfied with provoking conflict around the globe but we are all supposed to believe it is being done to advance freedom and democracy and we should rejoice if they win.
I’ll say it openly. The mere prospect of the defeat and humiliation of Russia terrifies me. Not because I like Putin or think Russia is wonderful which I don’t but because it will empower and embolden the evil psychopaths on our side. And the world will be a far worse place for it.
Indeed.
In addition, why does everyone assume that whoever replaces Putin will be better? They now know how much power they have in playing moronic EU leaders when it comes to their green lala land ideals. They won’t need to invade any country to still stick it to us – and then there will be no Putin to blame.
Plus ‘our’ side has whipped up such hatred of Russia it will take a while to get over that. Even Russians who did not support the invasion of Ukraine will not appreciate being the world’s whipping boy and the hateful rhetoric that has been whipped up.
But hey, we face serious energy problems for the foreseeable future, have run down our own weapon stocks – has anyone figured out how, for example, with energy rationing on the horizon, major weapons manufacturer Germany can produce more weapons to fill the much-depleted Western armories, leaving us quite exposed right now – and have brought China and India closer to Russia – ‘Winning’. This ‘winning’ feels very much like ‘The Science’ we have been seeing in terms of corona – bogus BS.
The shortage of energy IN THE UK (not Germany, or the rest of the EU-area) is not the fault of Putin.
It’s the fault of the anti-British Establishment here ….. which preferred to reduce usage of our own reserves and destroy our “fossil fuel” industry in order to shovel money at so-called green energy which will only ever be unreliable and intermittent and will ALWAYS require a back-up system.
But even on the basis the “Putin is to blame for lack of energy” propaganda …… I wasn’t consulted about having to personally pay at least double the 2021 price for domestic energy for years to come …. in order for the Government to shovel money we haven’t got at a country which is not even in NATO, let alone a long-standing ally of the UK.
+250% for gas at my place from October, so far – so yes, its “at least double”.
The global stage is the only place politicians want to be, domestic problems don’t hold much interest for them.
Very true. All Dutch politicians whine about is countries and people outside NL, it’s ridiculous. The few political parties that still realise they are here to serve the Dutch citizens are ‘populist, extremist, far-right’. Amazing how complying with the constitution and doing your sworn duty as an MP is now considered tantamount to a criminal offence. Of course, the money to be made on the international organisation circuit is mouth-watering…
With a few exceptions, they are puffed up and useless
Oh dear. Like a child, Ian Ron’s has distorted the argument so that he can feel as if he has ‘won’. The stuff of children and Guardian readers. I’ll remind Ian what the main arguments he found so distasteful were:
1. The West could be seen to be, at least, equally responsible for the Russian offensive.
2. Early negotiation would have been the quickest way to save billions of pounds and thousands of lives. The West showed zero interest.
3. It is a proxy war being fought by the US (and UK as their lapdogs) through Ukraine i.e. Ukrainian lives are being lost in the name of regime change. Yet again.
Those arguments will remain regardless of who appears the victor. Like the vax-pushers, it’s time to stop covering your ears with your hands and stop shouting lah, lah, lah so you don’t have to consider the counter argument.
There’s still a long way to go and that means more lives lost, more economic ruin, more people placed into poverty. Well done Ian, yep, that really is a great strategy.
And after the war, the internal structure of Ukraine will still need to be dealt with, somehow. It is not a united nation, in reality. At the very least, they will have to move towards a degree of devolution, or it might split up like Yugoslavia, or whatever.
There’s also that little thing of Thermonuclear war.
The carelessness of the Western warmongers about this, and I include this writer, is astonishing.
Excellent comment
The idea that people defending themselves against an invasion are culpably responsible for war deaths because they didn’t simply surrender is as cowardly as sickening.
The fact that we are having this discussion at all represents the dismal and shameful failure of Western diplomacy and statesmanship ever since the collapse of the Soviet Empire. Historically, culturally and politically, there was every reason to think that the new non Soviet Russia could and should have been a firm ally with the Western countries. Instead, whether by accident or design? we have alienated Russia and virtually goaded this war into happening.
Afghanistan, Vietnam etc. should by now have taught us that we are in no position to be the World’s policeman. Both Zelensky and Putin are awful and do awful things, the money and arms the Western powers have poured into Ukraine is mind blowing and potentially ruinous to Europe, The UK and the USA. In my view it is the best interests of the ordinary people of the UK to broker a deal that draws this all to a halt and to then do all we can to ensure Ukraine and Russia are bought on board as firm allies of the Western World.
The West deliberately tried to isolate and destroy Russia – why? Because Russia could pose a threat to the West’s cosy idea of enslaving us Why have you said Putin does awful things? What awful things? Zelensky has done awful things to Russian speaking Ukrainians and it was Boris Johnson who scuppered any chance of peace in Ukraine.
The problem is that appeasement is being conflated with being against the absurd and unorthodox self-imposition of energy sanctions on Europe, in place of the effective tactic that was used against Russia in the past which was to flood the oil market. Just as being against the absurd and unorthodox measures adopted against COVID was conflated with wanting granny to die. I think Putin is colluding with the globalists in this war; he is giving a temporary apparent victory to keep the Europeans distracted from their slide into poverty – “look! it’s working”. As with the response to COVID, this war is likely to continue for years.
“I think Putin is colluding with the globalists in this war; “
That’s a tough call. I’ve wavered on it but I do think that this war is giving the globalists what they want, the next crisis, the hyperinflation of food energy and the collapse of the current financial order.
But is Putin in on it? He definitely knows about it, but in the end, does he have a choice in Ukraine? I think this is a deadly game of chess for Putin, like it or not he is playing the board he is been given.
Unlike chess, he has the option of destroying the entire planet if things go too badly.
You think Putin is colluding in this war? That is quite an insane view to take!
Speculation of course but he’s colluding domestically; he allowed his own people to be clot-shotted and vaxpassed, with a huge drop in population last year, as bad or worse than the Yeltsin years.
Contrary to what we were told this is what happened.
“All the grain from Ukraine went to the (wealthy) European Union. According to the UN, only 2 out of 87 ships went to the poorest countries. Only 3% went to developing countries.”” [https://t.me/Reality_Theories/8522 ] [https://t.me/PutinDirect/47 ]
Anyway, now this, from Russia:
“Russia is set to ramp up grain exports, seeking to supply some 30 million tons this year, President Vladimir Putin has announced. The supplies will prioritize less well off and food-insecure nations.
“We believe it to be right to ramp up deliveries to the poorest countries,” Putin said during a meeting of the Security Council on Friday.
“In total, by the end of this year, we will supply some 30 million tons of grain and are ready to increase this volume to 50 million tons or more, because, thank God, we have a good harvest this year,” he added.
Moscow is also ready to supply fertilizers to the poorest nations free of charge, the Russian president said. “Our producers — we’re talking about potash fertilizers – are ready to deliver them free of charge to developing nations that urgently need them,” Putin said, instructing the Russian Foreign Ministry to work on the plan.”
Your problem is you’ve swallowed too much western propaganda and not enough real facts. Russia isn’t the bad man the USA/UK are. They have provoked this civil war through their meddling and greed, using the poor Ukrainians as fodder to feed the MIC. Whilst thousands of Ukrainians are being killed America is enriching itself at not only Ukraine’s expense but the EU countries too.
Zelensky – young WEF Leader
https://www.google.com/search?rlz=1CATMUU_enGB996GB996&source=univ&tbm=isch&q=zelensky+young+wef+leader&fir=_IZ3P4aS-_H32M%252Cymspe3E-K2i4RM%252C_%253Bg9ld2QdSDgrWWM%252CaAr8F3Ssnbt8CM%252C_%253Bqqam_DkaV9xjnM%252CXGFsSqd0ZJXyyM%252C_%253BG6Xz2_a28XvusM%252CXLFoZwY-ZTBW2M%252C_%253BulrVGGR0ASALFM%252CAtSRW5vSbghnVM%252C_%253BOmNgdUYaV4FKjM%252C4jJ-sunngeL1hM%252C_%253B4rJRijb2X7jbdM%252CRHIzGoz4Rti8SM%252C_%253BqWeXfKdbwYhZyM%252C_uyta6eZxNIxzM%252C_%253BE4MVRKdv5h9GtM%252CMhibSVs1wl4xOM%252C_%253BPKblBD5R5MoCOM%252C4OqKU06DX9B66M%252C_&usg=AI4_-kQEnInHJpLE8-5GosGKp_LTVjwc4g&sa=X&ved=2ahUKEwihgtjbnpH6AhXXhFwKHRC5CJgQjJkEegQISBAC&biw=1366&bih=617&dpr=1
Why would WE want yet another WEF-sponsored Young Leader who is setting out to ensure that we own nothing?
Don’t you want to be happy ;-)?
Your prose sounds exactly like Goebbels old news releases.
The only difference is that Goebbels didn’t believes half of what he wrote.
I particularly “liked” this:
” The hope was that such a victory would silence the nay-sayers in the West, bolster support amongst European populations for increased energy costs over the winter and open up the possibility of further supplies of heavy weaponry to Ukraine.”
That truly is sick.
Bolster support for increased energy costs – yes, because people had been wishing and hoping for seeing their bills go from 200 to 600 or 700 euros a month. And who does not like the idea of paying high taxes and seeing the money spent on weapons and killing while they shiver, can’t afford the rent and soon may not be able to afford food. A dream come true – if you are into depopulation.
Sick indeed, certainly in Brussels they are delighted at unaffordable gas prices, they’ve been pushing for it for years. The fact that countries like Germany, that pay the outrageous salaries of the Brussels mob, will be taking such an economic hit that their salaries are no longer guaranteed, nor the salaries of the police and security agents that currently protect them doesn’t register. Can’t wait for the day when it does finally hit them.
My frozen gran vs more heavy weapons.
I just can’t decide.
Didn’t you get the memo? Saving gran is sooooo 2020, now it’s about saving
the military industrial complexUkraine andlining the pockets of the head honchos of the environmental industrial complex and their political acolytessaving the planet. Soz granny, no heat for you, but have another booster, on us.You dont have to decide, you can have both care of the WEF.
And you will be happy.
Ukraine’s uncompromising defence is derived from true national sentiment. This is not the behaviour of a made-up country.
There is a strain of conservatism in the USA which is solidly isolationist. That is a perfectly sane stance, but they have to own it. That means looking on and doing nothing as Russia literally rapes its neighbouring state. Yes, it’s an uncomfortable stance, but instead of owning it, what a lot are doing is demonizing Ukraine in order to make that stance less uncomfortable.
…or looking on and doing nothing as the USA rapes Syria, stealing oil and food, and occupying large tracts of territory, denying its own people food, and forcing them to starve…? What’s the difference?
What a wonderful story! The author seems moist-eyed at the conjured prospect of more death and destruction, more weapons, more glory in this righteous war. There’s a similar puff piece romance in The Conservative Woman this morning too. A NATO pincer movement by their Creative Writing Brigade to hoodwink and cajole the sceptics
If only these were physical publications there would be a free white feather sellotaped to the cover for all those who would quibble over the sacrifice of British seniors to hypothermia this winter.
More bellicose romantic fiction please! Mills and Boom.
Not half so many Ukrainian flags outside the bungalows of Britain, not a quarter perhaps. Gone to landfill every one.
When will they ever learn.
When will they ever learn.
By the by, why is stating that a peace settlement and sound security arrangements should be pursued, or in any event a time-out from further inflaming a volatile situation, deemed ‘appeasement’? Cheap shot, trying to make Putin appear to be Hitler.
Hitler was militarily prepared and ready to take over several European countries. According to the Western warmongers, Russia can be defeated by Ukraine. If this is true, then on what planet would Russia have been able to keep marching on and have taken over the Nato countries one by one, the reason given for insisting on continuing this war? If Russia had that capability, Ukraine would not be able to stop it.
So which one is it? Russia is strong enough to take over Europe or is too weak to even take Ukraine? If the latter, then the fatalities and damage caused by intentionally dragging out this war (not to mention the economic destruction the West will be facing) lie with the West. If this destruction could have been avoided but only occurred for the political games of Western political leaders, quite why do some people believe they can take a moral high ground?
The Us war machine/industrial complex needs enemies.
Much like bigpharme need to find virus cause disease so they can eliminate them.
Both done at great cost – to us.
USA. – The Great Satan – or fair policeman of the world?
I wondered from the start why Russia hadn’t even attempted to destroy the essential infrastructure of the major Ukrainian cities. Maybe that was because it was described as a military incursion as opposed to outright war.
It seems the gloves are coming off – destruction of powerplants has just started. In other words a proper war ie full Russian mobilisation may just be around the corner.
Does anyone seriously think a country which lost 25-35 million souls winning WW 2 is just going to walk away from this?
The truth is nobody has a bloody clue how this will end, but continually poking the Bear is not a good idea.
” …expert consensus in the West was that Russia’s economy was teetering towards collapse; that its political isolation (forcing Russia to seek arms supplies from Iran and North Korea, and bringing Finland and Sweden into NATO) was profound, and that its military had shown itself to be ill-trained, undisciplined and generally no match in combined-arms operations for the determined, numerically superior and increasingly well-equipped Ukrainian armed forces” …
… lol rofl bwahaha etc.
Political isolation from the western, mostly anglophone, alliance yes, but not from the vast majority of the world, Eurasia, the BRICS etc, with whom it is building increasingly solid and productive relations.
The west tends to describe its policies and positions on things as “international opinion” but it is in fact itself increasingly isolated, and struggling to maintain its grip on power/domination over the world.
The Russian income from fuel exports has grown substantially as a result of the sanctions, ( from higher prices on sales ), and its economy is doing fine, as well as any other in these times anyway.
As another poster has already said, this article reads like shameless propaganda and spin. It’s almost embarrassing.
Western dominance is indeed coming to an end, history indicates that geographical dominance moves over time. What is disturbing is not only that Western political leaders don’t seem to see or understand this, but that every action they take will only accelerate the decline. Some key players may be doing this intentionally, but our supine legislatures and judiciaries do not need to follow suit, the stupidity in current parliamentarians is off the scale.
It’s typical of the ‘instant gratification’ required by people with little political insight and a short attention span.
In all likelihood this conflict will now enter a new phase, much more destructive to both sides……..and the wider world…..
…as a lot of people have already mentioned, what an economically destroyed Europe gains from this, or how it can help anything is anyones guess…..
This article has received a lot more kickback in the comments than most articles. I am not surprised. It is a mainstream view with hardly a nod to scepticism.
I am of the (uninformed) opinion that Putin’s aim was to disable and neutralise Ukraine. It has been emergiing as a threat as it was being ‘tooled-up’ and absorbed by the West. A ‘victory’ for him would be to achieve this neutraisation. Negotiating from a position stronger than at the start is hardly a climbdown.
Whether he has suffered military setbacks or not, I don’t know. It is probaby getting tougher than expected. He is just as capable of shooting himself in the foot as the West is with their sanctions.
Were it not for China’s obsession with the nonsensical, costly lockdowns, I’d say that when it comes to shooting oneself in the foot, this is the area where Western dominance and expertise is unsurpassed.
Haha, yes! And there is a propensity these days amongst dozy folk for shooting oneself in the arm to avoid covid.
The longer term problem is that Ukraine is not actually a united nation, in effect. Even if there had not been a military invasion from Russia itself, there were other fish to fry. It might need to reform the internal structure, perhaps with more devolution – maybe even a division between (say) East Ukraine and West Ukraine. Hopefully not as bad as India/Pakistan, but perhaps more like Ireland; who knows.
“Providing the military equipment that Ukraine needs to end this war swiftly is now the order of the day.” Who says we have it to send? It would need to be manufactured to send, needing factories we do not have, supplied with energy we do not have, water we do not have etc.No more Net Zero, at least.
I have relatives living in Russia. In a recent conversation they said that prices in Russia are stable and low, including energy and food. If Western sanctions were aimed at pressuring Russian civilians by making their lives insufferable then they have failed. The energy crisis is clearly being used by the West as an excuse to bring about the great reset and enforce the insane, anti-science green agenda. Western politicians have weaponised Western civilians, especially the poor and vulnerable, by inflicting on them shortages of energy and food in the name of bringing down Putin. Those politicians care nothing for the suffering they are causing, indeed, they appear to have declared war on their own people.
Besides that, look at who exactly we are helping. Ukraine hardly qualifies as a democracy when Zelensky shuts down all opposition parties and seizes their assets. A civilised democracy would not haver set up a hit list of those who disagree with it. The Ukrainian government has done just this. The list includes Daria Dugina, murdered in Moscow, and who is now labelled “eliminated”. The WEF wants Zelensky as their latest stooge while the EU and NATO see him as a useful tool in establishing their global influence.
Ukraine has had some tactical successes in the last few days but the long-term picture is far from settled. Certainly, any sort of triumphalism is premature.
A more balanced, nuanced article on the ongoing conflict in Ukraine & the wider geopolitical implications.
https://bigserge.substack.com/p/special-military-operation-season
Seems quite a nuanced view, doesn’t pretend it’s neutral but the author seems well versed in military matters – unlike most of our armchair experts.
Looks like the gloves are about to come off.
What an interesting time to be alive, Brexit, sham pandemics, net zero, manufactured energy shortages, and proxy wars. Christ.
Don’t forget the built in food shortages!
Interesting article looking at why the US has such a high stake in Ukraine. There is the valid question as to the legitimacy document discussed to keep in mind.
https://redpill78.substack.com/p/newly-leaked-report-from-rand-corporation?sd=pf
Most people will have to choose whether they can heat their “humble pies” or heat their homes this winter. Unless we borrow ridiculous amounts of money to try and do both. Then the cost of said pies will be inflated beyond affordability.
I can’t help but think this was all avoidable. That the only reason we’re in this mess is because people like Ian Rons wanted a stand-off with Russia to get their juices flowing. I guess they get to eat cake and watch the entertainment while everyone else waits for the leftovers.
This needs to end as soon as possible. Even if you make some small progress and get to go around talking like Rambo – do you really think you’ve “routed” Russia, that this can be over quickly? It will drag on for years and we’ll all be impoverished because of it, while the Chinese can only wait in anticipation.
Personally, I think people like Ian are in for a rude awakening at home when this cause of theirs makes life unlivable for a lot of people. Saying “let them eat cake” is not going to last much longer.
IMO the most enthusiastic support for the “war effort” is coming from the middle classes who may need to cut back on the number of meals out they have but are not going to freeze. When the “just about managing” classes start to really struggle, they will soon tire of it, if they haven’t already.
That is not the lesson of lockdowns, mask mandates, illiberal infringements of personal liberties, vaccine bullying etc
Few tired of those……..
Freezing & starving are more basic, pressing states than time off work with 80% of your pay…
Self preservation tends to focus folks’ on what matters.
This country has a mild climate and many food banks.
Most had to queue outside supermarkets in winter during lockdown for the privilege of paying for their food.
And that is a justification for shoveling our taxpayers money into the military arms machine? Cold kills the elderly, the chronically sick, infants & children.
Have you been to visit someone who is unable to pay for heat & is dependent on food banks? Until you have , you’re talking absolute codswallop. One of my patients was in just such a position. It was January, 4C which isn’t uncommon. By sitting on the sofa I thawed it out. Absorb that & then tell me that no heat & food banks is acceptable for the folk of a purportedly civilised country??
BTW that patient died due to the cold, despite my best efforts to get their gas & electricity reconnected. Just so you understand that my ire at your ludicrous suggestion is grounded in reality.
You really have no compassion for your fellow man & your attitude is a disgrace.
The war in Ukraine is being fought by the US ‘to the last Ukrainian’ according to a White House official. How’s that square with your simplistic diametric argument of “Russian man bad” vs “Ukraine & all supporters good”??
The arguments here are far more nuanced & are opposed to the wholesale slaughter which is going on in Ukraine which we are funding.
Great article! Thank you.
We know that Putin intended to move on to Moldova through Ukraine once a land corridor had been established by his invading forces in Ukraine. We know this from primary sources from within the Kremlin bureaucracy.
While the 9th Directorate of the FSB’s Fifth Service Department for Operational Information prepared for the occupation of Ukraine from July 2021, the 11th Unit of the Department for Operational Information, responsible for Moldova, was assessing plans for the next round of operations under the direction of Major General Dmitry Milyutin.
In November 2020, the FSB’s strategic objective in Moldova was to bring about ‘The full restoration of the strategic partnership between Moldova and the Russian Federation’
We know this because it is set out in FSB Outline of Operational Aims and Means, 21 November 2021, copies of which are readily available.
We also know that President Putin set out his reasons for invading Ukraine in a televised address.
He described how the Soviet Union had been broken up by ‘a truly fatal document, the so-called ethnic policy of the party in modern conditions’. Putin described how by empowering the constituent nationalities of the USSR, ‘It is now that radicals and nationalists, including and primarily those in Ukraine, are taking credit for having gained independence. As we can see, this is absolutely wrong. The disintegration of our united country was brought about by the historic, strategic mistakes on the part of the Bolshevik leaders and the CPSU leadership, mistakes committed at different times in state-building and in economic and ethnic policies’
The break up of the USSR was, according to Putin, a mistake. We know this because he said it was.
‘Address by the President of the Russian Federation’, transcript, 21 February 2022
So the idea that the invasion of Ukraine, whose territorial integrity we had guaranteed in the Budapest Memorandum of 1994, was of no consequence to Britain is just plain batty.
It is quite clear that Putin intends to reconstitute the former territories of the USSR into today’s Russia, including the Baltic States, for whom we will have to fight.
The present debacle does not alter that simple fact. Putin will not cease, though he may pause, as he did after occupying Crimea in 2014.
There are two possible reasons for the ‘isolationist’ ‘appeasement’ outcry on this site in favour of allowing Putin a free hand
The first is the largesse that Putin has spread so widely, funding so many oddballs and their dotty little political organisations across Europe.
The second is the activities of the ‘Internet Research Agency’
‘“Masquerading as Americans, these operatives used targeted advertisements, intentionally falsified news articles, self-generated content, and social-media platform tools to interact with and attempt to deceive tens of millions of social-media users in the United States,”
U.S. Senate Intelligence Committee Report
‘Sometimes “trolls” would be expected to respond to another “troll’s” comments or post, to give the appearance of a discussion involving two unconnected users’
“Go to a RT group on any social network. Day after day, they’re fighting for Mother Russia. Under any news, whether it’s about missiles, or the United States, or Putin, they’re everywhere, like cockroaches,”
Sergei K., former employee, ‘Internet Research Agency’
Thanks Monro. And if you look at the number of downvotes to your comment (23, versus 0 upvotes), I think we can see the “Internet Research Agency” at work. The ratio of up/downvotes to other comments on this thread are frankly implausible, and betray a certain level of desperation and stupidity.
You had to get pretty far down before you found the resident 77 brigade (and/or) Ukrainian Foreign ministry apparatchik who finally woke up from watching the 24/7 never-ending Queens funeral distraction-from-reality-show.
Unfortunate to see Toby gushing on GB News about an old fashioned patriotism that other countries thought we had lost much like Putin believed that the West no longer had the stomach to stand up for Ukraine.
Yes that’s such a great analogy.
*sigh*
The American English, spelling, in their comments is a clear marker.
Desperation, stupidity……..and, with the obligatory references to ’77th Brigade’, a frenetic, quite random, dottiness.
As the ex Internet Research Agency employee put it: ‘…..like cockroaches’
You keep believing that Ian, I am sure it helps.
A different perspective on the war in Ukraine, looking at US war crimes.
We may as well cover all bases!
https://bioclandestine.substack.com/p/russian-mil-discuss-us-crimes-against
Poorly informed and naive. For example tell us what were the losses sustained by Ukraine v the losses sustained by Russia in the Kherson and Kharkov counter-offensives. As I understand it Russia was caught off guard in the Kharkov counter-offensive and made a tactical withdrawal in the face of overwhelming Ukrainian forces. The Duran and The New Atlas are worth watching in order to obtain a more accurate and balanced perspective.
This was a totally avoidable war which has cost so much in human misery. When is the West going to understand that Putin will not countenance defeat?
They changed into ‘civvies’ and fled, abandoning vehicles, weapons, the lot. Photographic, intercept, evidence is everywhere….
The sanctions on Russia seems to be hurting countries like Itlay far more than it is hurting Russia
ENERGY CRISIS IN EUROPE: First country being COLLAPSED due to the energy crisis.. ITALY?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xJIsNJYttJQ
ITALY COULD BE THE FIRST COUNTRY IN EUROPE COLLAPSED
BECAUSE OF ENERGY CRISIS
Right now many companies have already closed
Many are closing and will be closing soon
Due to the exponential increase in gas and energy prices
So in the next few months,
Millions of Italian people will be left without bread
Daily HOT
A manufactured energy crisis is completely unacceptable.
Yellow Boards By The Road …. for the love of humanity … … some people would rather believe a comfortable lie than face reality …
Wednesday 14th September 11am to 12pm
Yellow Boards
Junction A4 Bath Road &
Pound Lane Sonning
Wokingham RG4 6TB
Thursday 15th September 11am to 12pm
Yellow Boards
Junction B3408 London Road &
Wokingham Road
Bracknell RG42 4FH
Stand in the Park Sundays 10.30am to 11.30am – make friends & keep sane
Wokingham
Howard Palmer Gardens Sturges Rd RG40 2HD
Bracknell
South Hill Park, Rear Lawn, RG12 7PA
Telegram http://t.me/astandintheparkbracknell
‘The Duran’ on Telegram gives a balanced assessment which includes sober consideration of the quality of the intelligence from which conclusions about the progress of the Ukraine War are drawn … it’s worth remembering that in April prime minister Johnson hubristically scuppered the imminent peace deal between Russia and Ukraine, and this has tragically led to huge loss of life, mainly Ukrainian men … but of course, we ordinary citizens of Europe (including our sceptred islands) are obviously unanimously delighted that we are able to sacrifice our wellbeing and health so that our obviously mentally healthy non-criminalised leaders may continue to pursue Ukraine War policies which are now actively effecting unprecedented destruction of our economies so we can joyously freeze and starve this coming winter … we all agree it’s worth the sacrifice, and we should ignore the obviously fake news that most of the money and materiel sent to Ukraine has now disappeared into a black hole of criminal corruption …
Putin is winning. Anyone who is dominant in the skies wins unless I’m missing the Ukrainian Air Force for some reason?. No humble pie served in Georgia or Crimea is there? which Obama rolled over on his back for. Not great places to launder money is my guess.
Below, one example of the misinformation that has been spread about Ukraine, debunked by a primary source, in fact the primary source of the original story, quoted completely without necessary context, as he makes clear here:
‘In the CBS documentary report “Arming Ukraine”, filmed ca. 8 weeks after the start of the war, the non-profit Blue/Yellow and its work in Ukraine is featured as a part of the story.
The work by the organization at the frontline is depicted accurately and gives the viewer a very good picture of the nature of the support provided to the armed forces of Ukraine.
At the same time, in the report, there is a parallel storyline about whether the lethal Western support to Ukraine is properly accounted for.
Some people from other organizations, who have no relation to Blue/Yellow or its work are being interviewed and offer their opinions on the matter.
While this is a relevant and important issue, the report’s depiction of the situation is somewhat out of context.
The material for the report was shot at the very beginning of May, about 2 months into the war. Statements in the film on the situation regarding Western aid must be seen in that time frame.
For example, when it is stated in a comment that “30% reaches the frontline” this refers to a general assessment by Blue/Yellow of the efficiency of the Western aid effort at that time. In no way is it suggested that the support is being “sold on the black market” or “stolen”.
At this point, almost six months into the war, the situation has improved significantly. The aid from the West is playing a very significant role and will increasingly so do for the foreseeable future.
We, the Blue/Yellow team in the US and Europe, invite everybody to see the report for themselves. Our support for Ukraine, at the risk of the lives of many members of our team, will continue for as long as needed.’
Jonas Ohman
This article is just so wrong on almost every level (but especially the truth and facts) it is ridiculous.