In a recent post for the Daily Sceptic, Toby claims the received wisdom on the Ukraine crisis is basically right, noting that he’s “experienced the unusual sensation of feeling more in step with the mainstream media than I have with my sceptical friends”. While he makes some good points, I don’t think he really steelmans the sceptical position.
Toby concludes by saying that “when a strongman leader uses his country’s superior military force to subjugate an independent sovereign state to his will my natural inclination is to side with the underdog”. But this isn’t the right way to frame the issue. I’m certainly not on Putin’s “side”.
Incidentally, Toby says he supported the war in Iraq, even though that involved a leader (whom some people consider a kind of strongman) using “his country’s superior military force” to invade and occupy “an independent sovereign state”.
The fundamental issue is how to resolve this crisis. The mainstream position – so far as I can tell – is that the West should pour arms into Ukraine while simultaneously crushing the Russian economy with sanctions (or that it should even go to war by declaring a “no-fly zone” over Ukraine).
The hope is that, by adopting this confrontational strategy, either one of three things will happen: the Russians will be defeated or forced to withdraw; Putin will be overthrown in a palace coup or popular uprising; or he’ll be brought to the negotiating table and made to accept terms highly unfavourable to Russia.
While this strategy may work, it seems to me highly risky and potentially counter-productive.
Rather than being forced to withdraw, the Russians may simply fight more aggressively, taking even less care to avoid civilian casualties. This could result in a prolonged insurgency where large numbers of Ukrainians die. And if Putin is overthrown, there could be chaos in Russia – something we don’t want in a state armed with thousands of nukes.
A better strategy, arguably, would be something along these lines: agree to recognise Crimea and the two breakaway regions in the East; and rule out NATO membership for Ukraine. In exchange, Russia must immediately withdraw its forces, and help pay to rebuild the country.
But why shouldn’t Ukraine get to join NATO, if that’s what it wants? The reason is that Russia is a major power, and major powers get to make demands of their neighbours when it comes to matters of national security.
Can Cuba host Russian missile sites if it wants? After all, Cuba is an independent sovereign state. Basically everyone recognises that, no, Cuba cannot do this. In fact, the US would probably threaten nuclear war before the first brick had been laid. (This is more or less what it did during the 1962 Cuban missile crisis.)
Can Venezuela host Chinese air bases, within striking distance of the US? Again, the US would simply not allow this to happen. It has long followed the Monroe Doctrine, which holds that foreign powers must not intervene in the political affairs of countries in the Western hemisphere.
Ukraine is a core strategic interest for Russia, as that country’s leaders have explained repeatedly over the last three decades. There are already US missile sites and air bases throughout Europe. But for Russia, Ukraine is an absolute red line. Attempting to bring it into the Western sphere of influence was always likely to have disastrous consequences.
This point has been made by numerous well-informed commentators on both the left and the right, including: Robert McNamara, Bill Bradley, Gary Hart, George Kennan, Henry Kissinger, John Mearsheimer, Jack Matlock, William Perry, Noam Chomsky, Stephen Cohen, Vladimir Pozner, Jeffrey Sachs, and many others.
But wasn’t Ukrainian membership of NATO “purely theoretical”, in the words of Francis Fukuyama? Not at all. Its intention to join NATO was enshrined in the constitution in 2019. And NATO members consistently refused to rule it out, having agreed in 2008 that Ukraine and Georgia “will become members of NATO”.
What’s more, Ukraine’s government is considered illegitimate by Russia. In 2014, the country had a democratically elected pro-Russian president, but he was toppled in a Western-backed coup. Since then, the country has taken a distinctly anti-Russian course, banning pro-Russian media and abolishing minority language rights.
Again, none of this is to say I support Putin’s invasion of Ukraine. It’s about acknowledging geopolitical realities, and minimising the risk of catastrophic outcomes like nuclear war.
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Best news from Scotland for two nightmare years.
“Cancel Culture” and the all out assault on our basic values and freedoms simply must must be stopped if what is still left of our civilisation is to survive.
True but welcoming in esp current SNP members is surely inviting the fox into the henhouse -I remain to be convinced that any SNP member has anything other than selfish desires for the FSU
I remember a story about an SNP MSP who went to work on Ash Wednesday with ashes on her forehead. In the days of I Like Salmon, they were quite conciliatory towards churchgoers. With things as they are now, I can certainly believe that some members would feel they have reason supporting the FSU. As almost all separatist activists in Scotland seem to coalesce around the SNP, presumably they are quite a “broad church”, and don’t all agree with some of the first fish’s nonsense. I assume that there are separatists who see her as an embarrassment to the independence movement and to Scotland.
That leapt out at me too, but Sillars is an old (old) school Nat who actually worked in the real world before getting into politics, in stark contrast to the carefully groomed career creatures infesting the party now.
He needs to be treated with caution, but repentant sinners can make the most zealous converts.
Yes, I was perplexed, to say the least, by something so utterly out of character for anyone associated with the SNP, however peripherally, never mind someone so close to the centre. I’d treat with caution . . .
(I speak as a Scot)
Nickerless will be scheming already.
Its very disheartening to see so many on here have swallowed the big lie about a novel virus based on unvalidated fraudulent tests and not a lot else. Here is another piece of the puzzle showing how the whole thing really is just a massive scam – rebranding old illnesses, plus not mentioned in this article, killing people and calling it covid – ventilators and remdesevir and midazolam for example – plus outright death certificate forgery to bump up the numbers. All very well known in these parts, but still most believe there is a novel virus among all this crime and deceit. Its unreal.
Was Covid19 a re-branded flu?
https://off-guardian.org/2022/04/12/was-covid19-a-re-branded-flu/
No in the sense that it was/ is similar but not identical. Yes in the sense that it was of similar importance (or lack thereof).
’CTR’ please take COVID-denial pseudo-science drivel like this somewhere else, this is a facts-driven site for the scientifically-minded
Or you might just be a COVID-fanatic trying to spread false conspiracy ideas to tarnish the site? Who knows…
Why are you denying the massive overuse of Midazolam?
Remember so far the tinfoil hat conspiracy theorists are up 52 – nil
More being added by the day.
Goodness, you’ve managed to keep count – well done!
Interesting article, certainly a very plausible theory, the flu did seem to do a disappearing act, an off duty GP assured me this anomaly was due to social distancing, masks and lockdowns etc.
tl;dr summary: “Ignore the many labs who have independently sequenced SARS-COV-2 and determined that it is indeed a novel coronavirus. Based solely on under-reporting of influenza, I assume and therefore assert as a fact that SARS-COV-2 does not exist.”
It’s fine to be sceptical, but that’s not worth reading in full.
You really have swallowed the scam, because those of us who really know call it the common cold.
URGENT!!! Comment on the WHO treaty **NOW**
Comments CLOSE in less than 21 hours from now! It will take you <2 minutes to do. Here’s exactly how to comment.
https://stevekirsch.substack.com/p/urgent-comment-on-the-who-treaty?r=o7iqo&s=w&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web
Done (again, for what it’s worth. I suspect that big pharma and their collaborators will find ways of punishing rebel states).
Is this what the New World Order looks like?
Why do you keep calling this a “treaty”?
If memory serves (and it usually doesn’t) that’s the term used by the WHO.
Tuesday Horse & Groom roundabout) Bracknell (Downshire Way Broad Lane & Bagshot Road) a great response and 2 new recruits for Bracknell Stand in the Park on Sunday.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FKFjjWDA0-8
The video is from Brian who joined us from Woking!
Stand for freedom with our Yellow Boards By The Road next events
Thursday 14th April 3pm to 4pm
Yellow Boards
Junction A329 Reading Rd
& Station Approach
Wokingham RG41 1EH
Monday 18th April 2pm to 3pm
Yellow Boards
Junction A3095 Warfield Rd/
A329 Millennium Way
Bracknell RG12 2XT
Stand in the Park Sundays from 10am – make friends & keep sane
Wokingham Howard Palmer Gardens
(Cockpit Path car park free on Sunday)
Sturges Rd RG40 2HD
Bracknell
South Hill Park, Rear Lawn, RG12 7PA
Telegram http://t.me/astandintheparkbracknell
I wish all involved in FSU Scotland the very best.
At least this will wind up Krankie.
On the subject of Scotland, there’s an article in the Guardian today from one of Scotland’s chief Covid-mongers: https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2022/apr/12/herd-immunity-covid-reinfection-virus-world
Got to keep that hysteria level whipped up!
Devi Sridhar – how did I guess. Wants locking up with Fauci and Schwab.
Along with all the other dirty crooks in Westminster.
Please give us a clue, as I would not commit the sin of linking to that rag , especially during Holy Week.
“Testing, testing, testing. Keep those numbers up, keep the panic going, a deadly new variant could arrive at any second.”
I assume from the above comment that Sridhar has had the nod from Billy that his new brew is about to be released.
Hiding in plain sight.
$generic_corona_bs should be sufficient.
Strangely, I’ve been getting occasional colds for as long as I can remember. From what planet does The Devi[tm] come from if she thinks this must be news?
Toby deserves our thanks.
Yes thanks Toby, we enjoyed your Bafta appearance with Mark Steyn.
Free speech with Ayatollah Krankie at the helm? No chance