In a recent post for the Daily Sceptic, Toby claims the received wisdom on the Ukraine crisis is basically right, noting that he’s “experienced the unusual sensation of feeling more in step with the mainstream media than I have with my sceptical friends”. While he makes some good points, I don’t think he really steelmans the sceptical position.
Toby concludes by saying that “when a strongman leader uses his country’s superior military force to subjugate an independent sovereign state to his will my natural inclination is to side with the underdog”. But this isn’t the right way to frame the issue. I’m certainly not on Putin’s “side”.
Incidentally, Toby says he supported the war in Iraq, even though that involved a leader (whom some people consider a kind of strongman) using “his country’s superior military force” to invade and occupy “an independent sovereign state”.
The fundamental issue is how to resolve this crisis. The mainstream position – so far as I can tell – is that the West should pour arms into Ukraine while simultaneously crushing the Russian economy with sanctions (or that it should even go to war by declaring a “no-fly zone” over Ukraine).
The hope is that, by adopting this confrontational strategy, either one of three things will happen: the Russians will be defeated or forced to withdraw; Putin will be overthrown in a palace coup or popular uprising; or he’ll be brought to the negotiating table and made to accept terms highly unfavourable to Russia.
While this strategy may work, it seems to me highly risky and potentially counter-productive.
Rather than being forced to withdraw, the Russians may simply fight more aggressively, taking even less care to avoid civilian casualties. This could result in a prolonged insurgency where large numbers of Ukrainians die. And if Putin is overthrown, there could be chaos in Russia – something we don’t want in a state armed with thousands of nukes.
A better strategy, arguably, would be something along these lines: agree to recognise Crimea and the two breakaway regions in the East; and rule out NATO membership for Ukraine. In exchange, Russia must immediately withdraw its forces, and help pay to rebuild the country.
But why shouldn’t Ukraine get to join NATO, if that’s what it wants? The reason is that Russia is a major power, and major powers get to make demands of their neighbours when it comes to matters of national security.
Can Cuba host Russian missile sites if it wants? After all, Cuba is an independent sovereign state. Basically everyone recognises that, no, Cuba cannot do this. In fact, the US would probably threaten nuclear war before the first brick had been laid. (This is more or less what it did during the 1962 Cuban missile crisis.)
Can Venezuela host Chinese air bases, within striking distance of the US? Again, the US would simply not allow this to happen. It has long followed the Monroe Doctrine, which holds that foreign powers must not intervene in the political affairs of countries in the Western hemisphere.
Ukraine is a core strategic interest for Russia, as that country’s leaders have explained repeatedly over the last three decades. There are already US missile sites and air bases throughout Europe. But for Russia, Ukraine is an absolute red line. Attempting to bring it into the Western sphere of influence was always likely to have disastrous consequences.
This point has been made by numerous well-informed commentators on both the left and the right, including: Robert McNamara, Bill Bradley, Gary Hart, George Kennan, Henry Kissinger, John Mearsheimer, Jack Matlock, William Perry, Noam Chomsky, Stephen Cohen, Vladimir Pozner, Jeffrey Sachs, and many others.
But wasn’t Ukrainian membership of NATO “purely theoretical”, in the words of Francis Fukuyama? Not at all. Its intention to join NATO was enshrined in the constitution in 2019. And NATO members consistently refused to rule it out, having agreed in 2008 that Ukraine and Georgia “will become members of NATO”.
What’s more, Ukraine’s government is considered illegitimate by Russia. In 2014, the country had a democratically elected pro-Russian president, but he was toppled in a Western-backed coup. Since then, the country has taken a distinctly anti-Russian course, banning pro-Russian media and abolishing minority language rights.
Again, none of this is to say I support Putin’s invasion of Ukraine. It’s about acknowledging geopolitical realities, and minimising the risk of catastrophic outcomes like nuclear war.
Discussion
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I fully agree with the narrative above but I fear this narrative is the minority view. As during covid mania the masses are fed a narrative that is rammed down their throats on a 24/7 basis and for anyone to stray beyond that narrative your are deemed a heretic.
You’ve got this right. It’s just not the natural view from the west because we wear white hats and the ruskies wear black ones. Putin never established he was trustworthy so the west suborned the geo-political realities because we wear white hats. But no Russian sees it that way. Oh, and they have never experienced democracy to help enable them to understand our point of view.
What you seem to have totally missed is the fact that Putin himself is merely following orders issued by the evil Davos team in Switzerland and that it exactly coincides with the official breakdown of the covid plandemic. Putin only invaded Ukraine on orders from the higher ups.
Really, I am shocked at the myopia here in this regard. After all, take a look at Putins convid programme, it is exactly the same as the rest. Then take a look at the WEF and his associations with the wicked clowns who are destroying the world. This war is the next phase of the genocide and Ukraine is run by the same bunch of Nazis except this time it is evident that the Nazis are also the Ashkenazis and Tartars.
Many are missing these facts on the ground even though they are evident with a closer look at this war that started 14 years ago and is in the main a war on the Christian majority of the country in particular those who speak Russian and the war has been waged by the Ukraine govt with help from the West on these folks.
The European peasantry, in Europe… Read more »
If you want to understand Putin’s position, watch
https://www.bitchute.com/video/cklE52QyOQs4/ (6 minutes)
Essential but Hard Viewing if you want to understand what motivates Russia
https://www.bitchute.com/video/cklE52QyOQs4/
🚨INSIDE UKRAINE🚨 with Tanya Shelepko
We interview Tanya, an English teacher and theatre director as she navigates life through war torn #Kyiv.
iTunes👉 https://tinyurl.com/ep40iTunes
Spotify👉 https://tinyurl.com/ep40spotify
Website👉 https://therealnormalpodcast.buzzsprout.com/1268768/10168863-ep-40-inside-ukraine-tanya-shelepko-interview
A very good article, but will fall on deaf ears unfortunately, such is the hysteria generated by the latest “crisis”.
Goodness I absolutely agree with everything you’ve said. Amazing. Thanks good article.
You cannot ignore the fact that the US MIC has been vilifying Russia since the fall of the USSR. Even after Russia has essentially become a more open and westernized country, this has continued unabated. This policy is fully supported by Britain and the EU. Having weak Middle East countries as enemies is not enough. They need a sophisticated enemy. This is to ensure the flow of investment into the MIC. China is the real enemy but there is too much invested in China and too much to lose by the rich and powerful. Putin invading the Ukraine is actually just what they were after. If Putin thinks he will win this he is sadly mistaken.
It seems now that reasoned discussion has to be prefaced with ‘I’m not a Putin supporter’, just as it was with ‘I’m not an anti-vaxxer’ up until recently.
I agree with most of the article – I do see this as on a par with the Cuban Missile Crisis, but would add that Russia’s position on Ukraine not being in NATO and not having nuclear weapons is in everyone’s interests, not just Russia’s, because the deterrent of MAD – mutually assured destruction – which has maintained the balance of nuclear power for decades – cannot work if the weapons are on your door step. After all, what use is a burglar alarm if the burglar is living in the guest room?
There’s seems to be nothing mentioned about the EU’s part in all this. I admit to be being woefully ignorant (though I’m trying to educate myself) but a few years ago, wasn’t the EU pushing a stick into the hornets’ nest by trying to bring Ukraine into the EU ”family”?
Mark Stein GBNews…..what are the odds that a young woman reporter turns up at Boris’s press conference on the Polish/Ukrainian border telling him to get the RAF into the sky and shoot down Russian planes, and coincidentally just happens to be Daria Kaleniuk….one of the WEFs Young Global Leaders Community??
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ym9T6AP9zxw
15 minutes ago I tried to make a Comment on The Independent website. It was rejected as not compiling with their policy. Can you see any incitement to hatred or profanity in my comments? You may not agree with what I tried to say or might feel it is factually incorrect in some way, but who am I offending?
“Is this our 1914 moment? All the elements are there, The Russian Bear (The Hun), Plucky Little Ukraine (Belgium), a moral crusade against Enemy, closing and sanctioning of Enemy business, or indeed anything Enemy including newsfeeds and websites. Of course, if you are the Enemy but of high personal wealth you are welcome, not with open arms perhaps, but you can receive Absolution for a consideration just like in the days of Yore. Have you noticed that Covid has magically disappeared from the MSM? That’s Show Business for you”.
Have a read of this
https://bariweiss.substack.com/p/the-wests-green-delusions-empowered?s=r
Noah, I don’t know you, but I am in total agreement with you. Just wish it was you sitting around the table negogiating for the good guys. Sadly, the west is outnumbered by baddies, and that for me is the real worry.
Good article with lots of sensible points. And strange/worrying how arguing that Putin has some understandable or even valid concerns about what was happening is to be pro-Putin.
This shows the conflict within Ukraine that must be resolved to end the bloodshed. Is it clear that ethnic Russians within UKraine want to ruled by Putin’s version of Russia? This is not necessarily the case, but if it is, then the simple negotiated deal would be to redraw the border with those that want to be part of Russia on the Russian side of it. I think there is perhaps more to it than that and Putin isn’t prepared to compromise in that way because he wants Ukraine’s resources. Its also possible that at the outset the Ukrainians wouldn’t allow a change to their border, but I suspect that may now have changed. The problem is how would you draw the new borders.. The best way would be by a democratic referendum in each area, but Putin doesn’t believe in democracy so it wouldn’t be acceptable to him. Perhaps an idependant country ( India or China?) could broker negotiations and get people round the table to resolve this and stop the bloodshed.
sure, do what chamberlain and daladier did in 1938 to appease adolf hitler.
they gave him sudetenland, and you propose to give putin ukraine.
and look what that has brought the world…
and make no mistake, putin is as much of a mad dog as hitler was.
putin played trump for the fool he is and laughs at demented biden.
he despises the western degeneracy, because it is weak.
and to him it is okay to attack a weak country….
you really think that giving in is going to change his mind?
on the other hand i think it would be a good situation if putin were not to stop at the ukraine but take the rest of europe too.
surely then the idiocy of gender pronouns would come to an end….
Exactly. Russia doesn’t want Ukraine. It wants the two territories recognised and Ukraine kept out of Nato. Not to conquer Ukraine, but to rid it of Nazis.
nazi’s?
you think there are nazi’s in ukraine?
you want to see real nazi’s ?
go to germany, austria, italy, france canada, new zealand and australia,and you do not have to look any further.
for nazi’s are not those that wave a swastika flag, but are those that act like they were in the 19 thirties germany and are relishing it.
a canadian pm openly discussing not tolerating a part of the population because it has unacceptable views. you can seen where he got the idea, or don’t you?
a french pm openly stating that he wants to make part of the population as uncomfortable as possible and he wants to shit on them. ring a bell?
a new zealand pm claiming she, and she alone, holds the truth and the right point of view.
remember that one?
an australian mp building concentration camps for those opposing his view on how things ought to be. now that one ought to be obvious.
there you got your nazi’s.
and all those are countries where waving a swastika flag is a crime….
That doesn’t mean there aren’t Ns in Ukraine too. I don’t know if there are – but I’m sure if they’re in those erstwhile ”well balanced” countries, they’ve infiltrated others as well.
I’m afraid we are using skepticism as our only tool in the toolbox here. Sometimes consequences are so bad that one has to keep quiet rather than give succor and ammunition to a tyrant. It wouldn’t pay to be skeptical about the assumption that if you jump off a very tall building without a parachute you will die would it?
What a terrible person you are for deflating the bubble of the Indoctrinaires on this blog…
Excellent. At some point would you tell us where Stenka Razin and the Cossacks fit into this patchwork?
Stenka Razin and the Cossacks had a couple of hit records in the late 1950s, I believe: Tell Stalin I Love Him, and Crimea River.
Well done. It seems to me that those people who want freedom for UK do not care of the freedoms of Donbas people or indeed Ukrainian people. For 8 long years there has been friction and bombing in Donbas. Where was Toby then. At least look at the circumstances surrounding President Putins incursion before declaring for Ukraine..
We also know that Obama, Biden and Clinton were stealing Ukrainian money and laundering it to fund destabilisation in other areas. Including UK and much of Europe.
One further point. I am becoming more irritated by statements such as ‘even though I don’t like Putin.’, ‘Trump’ or whomsoever the left find too brash for their sensitive tastes. There is no reason to make these personal statements if you are looking at a situation of facts and truths. It shows the need to remain with friends who are creating problems. Ie the establishment want to remain the establishment.
I have enjoyed DailySceptic since its inception but I have been well aware that Toby really is part of the establishment and wants to keep those ties for professional reasons. Therefore there is an hypocrisy in some of his writings.
I do not know… Read more »
“Want freedom for the UK”???? We want freedom for Ukraine!
Good, balanced article
This article appears to equate NATO and Putin. This is incomprehensible…..NATO is a defensive organisation…has it ever initiated an offensive operation? Putin is behaving like Hitler…same spurious rationale, same deceitful propaganda, same expansionist objectives. Your so-called “sceptical view” will be just music to his ears.
I could not possibly support the mainstream narrative. After all, Ukraine has been shelling Russian civilians for seven years and it harbours a Nazi regiment in its army. These…in addition to anything else. On this, I take sides and it has to be Russia. Everything I hear from the UK state makes me more and more a sceptic.
Well done, Noah, for writing that whole article without using the word “appeasement”, even though that’s what’s in every paragraph.
This is exactly what I tried to say to TalkRadio (Mike Graham) but I was not called back. I challenged TalkRadio to put George Galloway on as he provides an alternative narrative worth listening to in situations such as these (remember WMD?). Again, told he was no platformed. The home of common sense and free speech? Julia Hartley Brewer daily embarrassing herself. Mike Graham at least gave Peter Hitchins air time.
George Galloway??? Seriously?
Galloway has been correct on every foreign policy matter for the last 50 years. Quite a pedigree in my opinion. A man who should be listened to. Unlike you and your multiple question marks.
Putin knowingly took a wrecking ball to his country by embracing the WHOs disastrous shamdemic “guidance” more enthusiastically than other world leaders. He is also backing the globalist plan for an entirely cashless society by forcing a digital rouble on the reluctant Russians,
Publicly, he claims to be sceptical about the WEF/UN/World Bank-backed Great Reset – which would turn most of us into state-dependent serfs – while simultaneously treating his own people like. . .serfs!
Actions speak louder than words. Much of what this billionaire dictator does – not least starting a war which will further degrade not only his own fragile economy but also those of Ukraine and her allies – will further the dystopian dream of his deranged mentor, Klaus Schwab.
This footage, of Nazi Schwab publicly praising Putin in the same breath the tyrannical Justin Trudeau, speaks for itself.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eYYCCtqo7Bo
Excellent
Thanks to all of you for the history and background about how this all came to be and the propaganda involved. Not much about the past that I would argue with you about. I tend to agree with Toby however. The Russians are invading right now, and I side with the refugees fleeing to Poland and Hungary who may or may not have a home to return to. All the conflicts and tragedies of the past mean little right now. Putin could have taken what he already had, bided his time, negotiated for a little more, upped the price for energy to enhance his position and in a few years, he would be able to get more, maybe everything. The threat of missiles in Ukraine is minimal when there are missiles already all over Europe. This is just a tragedy, and it is unnecessary.
“All the conflicts and tragedies of the past mean little right now.”
Easy to say when you aren’t the target of a militarily aggressive superpower with a track record of waging aggressive wars of choice and a culture of hatred directed at you.
“Putin could have taken what he already had, bided his time, negotiated for a little more, upped the price for energy to enhance his position and in a few years, he would be able to get more, maybe everything.”
Huh? The situation in the Ukraine was only getting worse for Russia, and quite rapidly, with NATO arming and construction proceeding apace. The intention was either to create a situation where a fait accompli declaration could be made or to just let it proceed indefinitely, into de facto NATO incorporation. Meanwhile Russian speakers in the Ukraine were being actively discriminated against and murdered in the separatist regions.
The longer the Russians put action off, the harder and more costly it was becoming.
“The threat of missiles in Ukraine is minimal when there are missiles already all over Europe.”
The incorporation of the Ukraine pushes the NATO border 1000 km into the very heart of southern Russia. Its not… Read more »
Putin could have taken what he already had, bided his time,
Since 2008 Putin has had nothing but broken promises, these date back to post Soviet pledges from the West not to expand eastwards. Even after Maidan 2014 he has bided his time. He didn’t recognise the declared statehood of Donetsk and Luhasnk in 2014, despite these states making a string prima facie case for independence under international law. Instead he ‘bided his time’ and watched the the 2014 borders being gradually pushed back by as the puppet regime in Kyiv authorised military action leading to thousands of deaths and injuries (this, btw, recognised by the UN). This is all outlined in Professor Mearsheimer’s 2015 University of Chicago lecture.
And events over the last 48 hours show precisely why Putin couldn’t sit on his hands any longer. The EU has now openly pledged to destroy Russia’s industrial capacity, with the unelected German EU president joyfully laying out these pledges while declaring Germany’s new military renaissance (although already in place, but denied, from 2010). Ironically the 1945 ERP (the Marshall plan) was at pains NOT to do this to a beaten Germany after its WW2 attrocities.
Further today the ultimate… Read more »
Exactly. This is all about an irrational Putin. Playing a rational Devil’s Advocate is a waste of time.