Reform is on track to smash Keir Starmer’s so-called ‘Red Wall’, according to a poll today, with support for Nigel Farage’s party surging across the North and Midlands from 18% at the General Election to 30%, ahead of Labour on 27%. The Mail has more.
Support for Nigel Farage’s party has surged in traditional Labour strongholds across the North and Midlands – from 18% at the General Election to 30%.
Meanwhile, Sir Keir has seen his party slide from 39% to 27%, with his own popularity nosediving.
More than two-thirds of residents in the crucial battleground agree that Britain is broken’, with just 23% saying that is not true.
The research by Survation will set alarm bells ringing in Downing Street as local elections loom – with Mr Farage vowing to “plant tanks” on Labour’s lawn.
Sir Keir has been increasingly turning his fire on Reform, after abandoning the approach of ignoring the newcomers. Strategists believe the party is likely to be a bigger threat than the Tories by 2029.
The PM has been focusing on Mr Farage’s NHS views, close ties to Donald Trump and claims he has a soft stance on Russia.
Survation quizzed more than 2,000 residents in the Midlands and North last week. Labour reclaimed a swathe of seats there in July that the Tories had picked up in Boris Johnson’s 2019 election landslide.
Sir Keir’s net approval rating was a dismal minus-26, based on 27% having a positive view and 53% negative.
By comparison Mr Farage was on minus-4 and Tory leader Kemi Badenoch on minus-8.
Chancellor Rachel Reeves came out particularly badly after huge tax hikes and cuts to winter fuel payments for pensioners, with a rating of minus-35.
Among those living in areas where local elections are going ahead on May 1st, Reform’s support was 29% with Labour on 20% and the Tories 24%.
However, the sample was relatively small for those residents, making the results more volatile.
The cost of living was regarded as the most important issue by 53%, with immigration next on 35%, health 32% and the economy 28%.
Tony Blair’s spin chief Alastair Campbell is said to have warned at a recent pep talk for Labour special advisers that they need to treat Reform as a more serious electoral threat.
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No, Alastair Campbell, when it comes to ‘threats’, I think the British people need to be more concerned that you are sympathizing with and giving a platform to a terrorist mass-murderer;
”It needs research & checking but I’ve been told, allegedly the Tony Blair Institute have been supporting Syria’s ISIS inspired tyrant Abu Mohammed al Jolani since 2018.
It’d explain why Blair’s bootlickers Alastair Campbell & Rory Stewart i/v’ed him for their podcast.”
https://x.com/DaveAtherton20/status/1912087251279892587
Whilst I will probably vote reform in the forthcoming Council Elections nonetheless, I think it says more for the sheer awfulness and horror represented by the other parties than it does for the attractiveness of Reform. In my view Reform has failed to create a clear attractive political stance that inspires the people and is clearly for the people, it somehow does not come across as a party of the people.
If others feel the same as me then it is an incredible indictment of the other parties that their support is so high.
Yes, I think I’d be the same if I lived in the UK. Is it too early to say that it’s highly unlikely another party will form in time to pose a real threat to Reform and the Uniparty? This is the problem. Who else is there apart from Reform, with any real clout, if people just want rid of the dratted Uniparty?
I’m not sure how many agree with Matt Goodwin’s prediction here. An excerpt;
”Reform will now inherit the ‘post-Brexit realignment’ that initially propelled Boris Johnson & the Tories into the Red Wall but which the Tories squandered by lying to the British people about mass immigration
By ‘realignment’, I mean that Reform will now become the main home for a cross-class coalition of working-class and middle-class Brits who will put their intense concerns about what is happening to the country ahead of their once tribal loyalties to Labour or the Tories
This realignment commenced in the 2000s, began to find its expression through UKIP in the early 2010s, powered the Brexit vote in 2016, continued to reshape the map of British politics by propelling the Tories into previously uncharted territory between 2017 and 2020, but has since been in abeyance –a state of temporary suspension, with millions of voters disillusioned with how the Tories sold them out and then failing to rally around Labour’s ‘loveless landslide’ in 2024.
Reform is about to re-activate this realignment and bring it back into the forefront of British politics.
Many of these voters feel they were taken for granted by Tony Blair and New Labour, were then taken for a ride by Boris Johnson and the Tories, and are now being pushed to the back of the queue in favour of immigrants and minorities by ‘two-tier’ Keir Starmer and Labour.
They have a specific set of concerns. They are utterly sick and tired of a soaring cost-of-living crisis, which is at least partly caused by the elite obsession with Net Zero, which is going to become a much more political issue between today and 2029, as we saw this week.
They are completely fed-up with mass uncontrolled legal immigration which is taking more out of the economy than it’s putting in, is making it impossible for young British people and families to find a home, is making our country unrecognisable, and is happening despite the fact nobody in this country ever voted for it.”
https://x.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1912119634297315822
There is talk of Rupert Lowe joining the Tories. This could be a game changer especially if Jenrick were to become leader instead of Kemi
Some are not convinced that Farage really wants to form a government his preferred option being that the Conservative Party would ‘reform’ itself once more becoming Conservative and then Farage can quietly leave the stage declaring his job is done. Is Jendrick the person to oblige? Certainly, the party structure of Reform and lack of any philosophical political vision of any kind suggests something is not quite kosher about the party. Farage does have form on marching men up and down the hills and throwing some under a bus as he goes.
I am one of the unconvinced Smudger. In fact I’d go so far as to say Yusuf has other plans, ones that don’t include Nigel once he’s served his purpose in campaigning. Indeed the “party” structure – a company with two directors and no democratic accountability to “members” who are merely subscribers – is questionable and Reform doesn’t like people who ask questions. Fortunately for me, I live in London so I don’t have a decision to make for some time yet but, having voted Reform at the last GE and having seen two candidates close up in my branch, I couldn’t possibly vote for either of them. There’s definitely something that isn’t kosher within Reform. So many things just don’t add up
At least you are getting a chance to vote. Ours have been cancelled.
As Bill Clinton’s campaign manager astutely remarked: It’s the economy stoopid – and put a sign up to that effect in campaign headquarters.
”The PM has been focusing on Mr Farage’s NHS views, close ties to Donald Trump and claims he has a soft stance on Russia.”
Being from “up North” as I am, Donald Trump is more likely to be admired for what he’s doing, tackling immigration, stopping government waste, policies to boost employment in run down places, pushing back the “posh knobs” and their woke agenda. Those northern towns and villages are most likely to be suffering from the mad immigration policy and Islamification.
I doubt they give a pig’s burp about Ukraine or Russia. As for Labour’s electoral Ace in the Hole the NHS, with 7 million on the waiting list, its obsession with pronouns and priority given to non-whites, it may no longer have the emotional effect it once did.
Herr Sturmwurstführer might be attacking Farage for the very things with which Reform’s putative supporters agree.
Rape gangs, two tier justice and endlessly putting foreigners ahead of natives can be added to that.
“Herr Sturmwurstfuher” – Genius and another name to add to my lengthening list. Keep them coming.
It would be interesting to see a full list of suitable names for this odious man. I tend to call him the Starmführer. Press and hold the u to get options then slide finger to desired umlaut.
There is nothing that Labour, Conservatives, Liberal Democrats can now do about this, as a significant proportion of the population does not at all trust these parties. Also, they view Britain as now being a total mess, so have much less interest in Russia/Ukraine than Mr Starmer and his associates believe. The problems are seen as being within Britain and the sheer negligence of the main parties and the British establishment towards the majority, long term, citizens of the country; the garbage around identity politics and guilt tripping; the pushing of minorities (aka global majorities) into even the most improbable situations; the pushing of wholly incompatible Islamic cultures; the damage done to the self confidence of the nation; the increased taxes to pay for crumbling services that now cannot possibly work with much of this due to the massive immigration and divided society arising from the insane pushing of the multicultural narrative. A high proportion wish to see immediate, serious, and large changes here with little else even coming close in terms of its importance.
Unfortunately, having voted Reform at the last GE, I no longer feel able to support them whilst Farage, Yusuf (and Tice) remain at the helm. Dan Wootton has now published evidence that Farage lied – and knew he was lying – about Rupert Lowe having dementia. Given that 10,000 branch officials have now resigned and in some cases branches have closed down, support for Reform may be a mirage. If it is true that Lowe is considering joining the Tories, this could well be a game changer. Lowe is well respected as a man of integrity. I think it foolish that Ben Habib has named his new party – another limited company – Integrity as it may well prove a hostage to fortune. One doesn’t proclaim one’s integrity – actions speak louder than words
He didn’t give it that name and he didn’t start it. It has been in existence for a while. He has just taken it over i.e. bought it. The founders set it up as a Limited Company and Ben will change it from a Limited Company to a fully democratic party with the members having a say on policy and leadership. The website will be updated as well. Give him some time – like redecorating a newly bought house.
That is good news but why launch a new party with a name you aren’t going to use in future?
Yes Integrity is a ridiculous choice, for the reason you have given, plus – it’s not a word that figures in the vocabulary of ‘the common man’.
I just voted for Reform but cancelled my membership last week.
Confused? Let me explain…
It’s time for change and Reform still meets my objectives better than any other party. However, it has to recognise the massive grassroots groundswell re the apalling treatment of Rupert Lowe. Check out Dan Woottens interview with him today.
Farage is sticking his head in the sand by ignoring him, whilst Reform’s henchmen seek to destroy Lowe politically. The main point is no heavyweights will join Reform until this is properly resolved.
Lowe will be vindicated.
Absolutely Neil. Not the first time we find ourselves on the same page in this matter
Indeed and Rupert has said that he will not rejoin Reform. He has also said that he won’t make any decisions about joining a new party etc. until he has cleared his name, but he seems determined and serious about changing Britain for the better if he can.
The tiresome sight of Farage and a pint.
Just like Boris Johnson he puts up an fake humorous “I’m backing Blighty” act, and he’s accepted Boris Johnson surrender deal 100%.
Last year he claimed to have known Zia Yusuf for 10 years, but nobody who knows Farage had ever heard of him before the election. Now he’s co owner of the Reform company with Farage.
Britain needs restoration not Reform.
Controlled opposition.
Was this poll conducted before or after Dan Wooton published irrefutable evidence that Farage lied about Rupert Lowe having dementia – and knew that he was lying?
I doubt if voters in the Red Wall who have switched to Reform (or are considering it) are bothered about Farage’s links to President Trump or his views on Russia.
They do care about the NHS, but the general consensus in the country appears to be that the health service is completely broken and it is no longer “loved without question.” So Farage should be able to counter the usual scaremongering tactics from Labour.
That is, of course, the only reason Two-Tier says he is scrapping the NHS England Quango and is putting the health service “back under democratic control:” so he can weaponise it at the next election.
I’ve already predicted their 2029 campaign slogan for them “Three weeks to save the NHS.”
Nigel will counter with “Three weeks to save the country.” And that’s the one that will win out in the Red Wall.