The writer is in Australia.
Longer term readers of the Speccie will recall that back in 2015 and 2016 I thought, and argued, that all conservative voters would do better to preference Labour rather than Malcolm Turnbull and the Libs in the 2016 election. In other words, I thought we had to lose short-term to win long-term. The win would come because a Turnbull loss (rather than the incredibly narrow win he squeaked out) would embarrass the partyroom ‘moderates’/Lefties who knifed Abbott; it would take power away from them in future; it would force Labour rather than the Libs to implement Lefty policies (because try to name a single Right-leaning thing that Team Turnbull did); and as it turned out we would not have had the ‘free speech never created a single job’ Morrison Prime Ministership that lied about intending to sign up to Net Zero and that oversaw the biggest inroads into Australians’ civil liberties ever during the shameful, thuggish Covid lockdowns brought to us in part by Team Coalition. I said it beforehand and I think it still. Long term a 2016 Turnbull loss was preferable. (And yes, our preferential voting system, a protection racket for the two main parties, means that we voters cannot do what dissidents do in Britain or Canada and vote for some small third party; we ultimately simply have to preference higher either Labour or the Libs and in 2016 I preferenced Labour just above the Libs at the bottom of the ballot – not that it got me all those university grants and awards and accolades other Lefty voting academics scoop up. On that point, why can’t the Libs end all social science and arts grants skewed incredibly to Left-wing thinking and totalling tens of millions of dollars as they have in New Zealand?)
But why do I bring up the decades-old past? Because it is now pretty clear that a variant of that ‘lose now to win later’ argument is playing out in the US. Let me be blunt. The first fortnight-plus of this second-term Donald Trump presidency is the best first two weeks or so of any US President in my life. And it’s not even close. The list of what he has done in just 300 odd hours is staggering. Trump has pulled out of the WHO. He’s pulled out of the Net Zero idiocies of the Paris Accord. He has pulled out of the awful United Nations Human Rights Council and ended all UNRWA funding. He has banished all men (who have taken drugs or had surgery and want to be seen as women) from playing women’s sports, while ending juvenile sex changes. He has offered re-instatement to all US military personnel who were dismissed for not taking the mRNA vaccines, and done so with the promise of full back pay. He has ordered the removal of all virtue-signalling ‘these are my pronouns’ guff in government emails. He has used the threat of massive tariffs and the appointment of serious top people who actually want to close the border to do just that – in a fortnight the border crossings have never been lower while the deportations have started and are at record levels. He has ended the EV taxpayer scam and the wasting of myriad money on charging stations. DEI is gone from the US bureaucracy and he has threatened any universities who keep it. He has unleashed Elon Musk on the bloated administrative bureaucracy and we have already learned of corrupt USAID spending on things so Left-wing and crazy and basically corrupt – I’m looking at you legacy media around the world – that even partisan Democrats are embarrassed to see this come to light. And Musk is finding so much waste Trump may manage to balance the budget on eliminating this revealed spending alone. He has reset the Middle East world. He has nominated real conservatives to all appointments – people he knows won’t go to water because they’ve been hated by the Left for years and have stood up to it (the sole basis for all conservative appointments Mr Dutton). He has threatened the International Criminal Court over its disgraceful persecution of the Israeli PM, with strong hints as regards what would happen to any country that acted on the ICC warrants. Already US military recruitment has bounced back to record levels (who knew recruits want to fight, not be part of a woke social justice outfit?)
Trust me. Space stops me from listing everything I like about these first couple dozen Trump days. Be honest. What in the above list do you not like? Be honest. Do you think any other conservative leader in the democratic world would have done half of this? Be honest. Do a few mean and boorish tweets outweigh these sort of accomplishments in just the first 300 hours of his second term? Right now I am liking, no loving, nine out of 10 things this Trump 2 administration is doing. This is a whole new political feeling for me.
However, here is my core claim in this column. If Mr Trump had not lost the Presidency in 2020 (no doubt due in large part to the loosest of voting rules in many states, often imposed by unelected state judges under cover of Covid, including world-unique third party ballot harvesting) then he would now be finished on his second term. And he would most certainly not have taken on the administrative state in the way he is now doing. He would not have plunged himself into a full-blooded fight to win the culture wars. He would not have unleashed Mr Musk. Etcetera. Etcetera. It would have been a good second term. But nothing like what we’re seeing. Why? Because just three months ago the US political establishment was still trying to bankrupt and imprison Donald Trump. The Biden administration was still trying to saddle US voters with Kamala Harris and Tim Walz. It was still weaponising the administrative state. It opened the borders deliberately. Donald Trump saw all this. He withstood it all, including two assassination attempts.
Look, unlike in 2016 with Turnbull, I wanted Trump to win in 2020. But with the benefit of hindsight it is now plain to me that his loss then allowed him to pull off the greatest comeback in US political history (we can argue about Andrew Jackson) and then to decide to implement policies many of us conservatives have been dreaming about for eons. He had to lose to create these sort of wins – wins that dwarf anything that the Stephen Harpers or John Howards accomplished (with all due respect). The Spectator Australia‘s Editor and I were two of the earliest pro-Trump supporters in print in this country. Not to blow our own horns too much but we were right. The establishment conservative commentators were wrong time and time again. But it boils down to Trump having to lose to now win.
James Allan is the Garrick Professor of Law at Queensland University. This article first appeared in Spectator Australia.
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An old Chinese farmer saved up small amounts of money over a year to buy a new horse.
Just a day after the farmer bought the horse, it ran away. His neighbour expressed grief, but the farmer himself was calm. “I hope you can get over this bad news” said the neighbor. “Good news or bad news, can’t say” replied the farmer.
The next day, the horse returned to the farmer’s house by itself, and brought another stray horse with it. “Cheer up, we’re going to multiply our farm income. That’s great news” said the farmer’s son. “Good news or bad news, can’t say” replied the farmer and carried on with his work.
A week later, the farmer took the first horse to his farm and his son took the second horse to follow his father to work. On the way, the second horse pushed the boy down and ran away. The boy’s leg was fractured badly. That evening back home, the farmer’s wife groaned “We will have to spend all our extra savings on our son’s broken leg. What a terrible news”. Once again, the farmer replied: “Good news or bad news, can’t say.”
A month later, the farmer’s King announced a war on the neighbouring nation. Citing a lack of foot soldiers, the King ordered all able-bodied men in the nation to get drafted into the military without excuses. The farmer’s son was spared because of his broken leg. Later, the inexperienced soldiers got slaughtered in the war. “You are lucky that your son did not get drafted. Mine returned with severe injuries. Many have been handicapped or killed” complained the farmer’s best friend. Unabashed, the farmer responded: “Good news or bad news, can’t say”.
And so…. who knows. Right now I’ll agree Trump’s presidency is looking good.
This tale was recounted by Philip Seymore Hoffman playing Gust Avrokotos, a Greek CIA operative in the highly watchable film ‘Charlie Wilson’s War’ starring Tom Hanks, (2007). The book of the same name on which the biographical film was based is an excellent read too. I commend both to you.
Two minute speech is on Youtube. ‘The Zen Master and the boy’. Charlie Wilson’s War.
That’s exactly where I encountered it and why it came to mind when I read this article.
Agree with this thesis but the author – like most people – misses a rather obvious point.
2020 was stolen, it was not lost. There was a ~30 million vote fraud. The Corona plandemic Fascism was activated to stop Tronald winning. It had other objectives as well.
Having said that, the author is correct. The 2024 election was the 2nd most important in US history (1864 the most important). Most people understand that something is wrong with just about everything. Trump for all his faults and mistakes (Operation warpspeed etc) is leading a fight back. As he said, God preserved him for this time. So it has transpired.
Maybe the Corona coup and fraud of 2020 was necessary to full deconstruct the evil that permeates just about everything.
Maybe someone else had bigger plans…..he sent his only son into the wilderness, though I can’t say Mar a Largo is much of a wilderness.
An interesting analysis. Perhaps in a later article you could criticise the maximum time limit on any president in the USA, although I suppose one could argue that limited time could encourage achievement.
I think his first term experience and ‘losing’ the 2020 election made him prepare for his second term like no others before him. He had a big list and knew how to drive it through.
I also approve of Trump’s whirlwind actions except for his complete ignorance of the situation in the Middle East and his openly criticizing the demolition site called Gaza while sitting next to the perpetrator, the one figure who has dominated and directed US foreign policy over the past 30 years or so: Netanyahu is an international criminal wanted for genocide – genocide performed using US munitions and with full US support.
You cannot maintain the ICC’s indictment of Netanyahu is disgraceful while on the other hand supporting (or not condemning) its indictment of Putin.
Some commentators consider Trump’s actions regarding Gaza to be a very clever move, designed purely to bring movement forward to some magnificent peace plan, while the majority around the world consider him to be disgracefully ignorant of foreign affairs.
According to the internationally highly revered economist, Jeffrey Sachs:
The statements that Trump has made have enraged the whole world because they are so starkly absurd and imperialistic and illegal that they make no sense to people who take these issues seriously, because the lives of millions of people are at stake …
Netanyahu has said there should be a State of Palestine in Saudi Arabia! This statement was received with outrage by the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. Saudi Arabia is a very important country and to have within 3 weeks completely alienated the leadership and the public of that country is quite a stunning achievement …
The American deep state is genocidal vis-à-vis the Palestinian people, it is completely without a shred of respect for the Arab world …
If this ceasefire breaks down and there’s war it will show two things: one, that US foreign policy is owned and operated by Israel, which many of us fear to be the case, and it will show that the claim that President Trump has made that he’s a peacemaker and that he’s going to be in charge of US foreign policy will be falsified.
Trump is putting every country in the world against USA …
(https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=APK_AP1In8k)
Just take a look at what happened in Germany. An Islamist terrorist has just driven a car into a group of people in order to kill as many people as possible and receive 72 virgins in paradise, people like this are a menace to society and it should be obvious they need to be eliminated. Hamas shares the same ideology as this vile individual and yet people like yourself gnash their teeth and wail when Israel tries to eliminate a menace to their society and try to portray the Palestinians as innocent victims.
If the perpetrator of the attack in Germany claimed to be fighting against Zionism would you excuse his actions because he’s been oppressed by “evil jews” and think he shouldn’t be harshly punished for his crimes?
Does one vile crime excuse another? Mass immigration is clearly a problem: ask any Palestinian.
There are supposedly 2 billion Muslims in the world who live their lives in peace and harmony with their neighbours. There are supposedly slightly more Christians (Google says 2.38 billion) who, when you think about it and certainly for a century or so, have spent a lot of the time at war, sometimes in self-defence, sometimes out of pure aggression.
So, as far as I am concerned, religion is not an argument. In my opinion, all religions are man-made (certainly not woman-made) fairy tales designed to alleviate the rather sad fact that at some future date we will all die. Quoting once again Christopher Hitchens:
Violent, irrational, intolerant, allied to racism and tribalism and bigotry, invested in ignorance and hostile to free inquiry, contemptuous of women and coercive towards children: organized religion ought to have a great deal on its conscience.
And here he was referring specifically to the Christian religion.
He continued in the book “god is not Great” with:
There is one more charge to be added to the bill of indictment. With a necessary part of its collective mind, religion looks forward to the destruction of the world. By this I do not mean it “looks forward” in the purely eschatological sense of anticipating the end. I mean, rather, that it openly or covertly wishes that end to occur … religion has never ceased to proclaim the Apocalypse and the day of judgment.
Which brings us back to Orthodox Jews, red heifer sightings, the fact that Israel (illegally) has nuclear weapons and is longing to start a war with Iran – who some say does not need nuclear weapons because of its arsenal of hypersonic missiles but is capable of quickly creating highly enriched uranium should the need arise.
So whereas I agree that Islam is not an ideal religion, neither is Christianity and certainly not the Jewish version.
And I do not gnash my teeth and wail, I am just surprised how many DS readers simply shrug their shoulders when it comes to the mass destruction and mass murder carried out by Israelis against the indigenous people of their country.
Off-T.
Absolutely bloody hopeless. If this is what passes for policy I am close to ‘Out.’
So basically Reform’s Nut Zero policy is “carry on chaps.”
FFS !
“REFORM REVISES ENERGY POLICIES TO ‘DIRECTION OF TRAVEL’ ONLY”
https://order-order.com/2025/02/13/reform-revises-energy-policies-to-direction-of-travel-only/#:~:text=REFORM%20REVISES%20ENERGY%20POLICIES%20TO%20%E2%80%98DIRECTION%20OF%20TRAVEL%E2%80%99%20ONLY
In short. It draws out the enemy and reveals its capabilities and true intent. .
As much as I find a UK Labour Government a tragedy, I did feel prior to the GE that it would be preferable to letting the Tories soldier on. I am old enough to have experienced true Labour pre-Thatcher, so I knew what was coming and haven’t been disappointed.
What it has done is put on display the evil that is Marxist-Socialism, and the ruination of Net Zero thanks to Mad Miliband.
The Conservatives were in essence no better but a but more genteel, not so harsh or provocative, but folk can now see at root they are just the same as Labour.
The last Labour Marxist-Socialist Government ended in 1979 and the Blair/Brown Neo-Thatcherite Government hid the Devil at the root of Labour, so people over age 65/70 have no experience of Labour flying its true colours and what the Socialist dream-world of fairness, equality, milk & honey for all, truly means. They do now!
Trump 1.0 did much the same thing. The Establishment put on open display its depth and depravity. Trump and the US people learned from that and Trump 2.0 knows exactly what he’s up against and had time to plan and prepare to deal with it.
Now the Establishment swamp creatures have no where to run as Super Musk X-man goes after them.
Let’s hope Nigel Farage and Reform UK are competent enough, determined enough and can do the same, and enough of the electorate are smart enough to give them a mandate when next election day comes.
I agree though it’s regrettable that six million people voted for the Fake Conservatives and they are the Official Opposition, still deluding people that they are relevant.
Excellent article and very relevant to the U.K. obviously. Why so many of us voted Reform and why the conservative charge of “vote Reform get Labour” continues to get zero traction. That’s exactly why most of us voted Reform (wake up and smell the coffee!)