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New Findings Show No Decline in the Strength of the Gulf Stream Since the 1960s

by Chris Morrison
27 January 2025 9:00 AM

Most people have seen or are aware of the 2004 Hollywood blockbuster The Day After Tomorrow and its story of disruption to the Atlantic Gulf Stream causing catastrophic weather in the Northern Hemisphere. Climate alarmists out to impoverish the world with their command-and-control Net Zero fantasies have been dining out on the scare ever since. In July 2023, Georgina Rannard of the BBC reported that “scientists say” a weakened Gulf Stream, which is a major part of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), could collapse by 2025. Such is the rush to induce mass climate psychosis, mainstream media might not find the time, or have the inclination, to report new findings from a group of scientists that found the overall strength of the AMOC has shown no decline since the 1960s.

Published by Nature this month, the scientists state they came to their conclusion after examining heat transfers between the sea and the atmosphere. Between 26.5°N and 50°N it was found that heat transfers over decadal and centennial timescales were “strongly linked” to AMOC-driven northward heat transfers. At 26.5°N the AMOC has not weakened from 1963 to 2017, “although substantial variability exists at all latitudes”. Most of the alarmist copy comes from examining proxies such as sea surface temperature anomalies, but the scientists note that these records “are not long enough to differentiate between low-frequency variability and long-term trends”. Alarmist copy is often little more than opinions based on short-term variability. Junk science, in other words, of the highest order.

This point is borne out by other scientific work that fails to get a mention in the legacy media. In August last year a group of scientists highlighted that alarm over the collapsing Gulf Stream was contingent on unreliable climate models, and any collapse could occur from now to infinity. In other words, nobody knows, not least because the uncertainties are too large “to predict tipping times of major Earth system components from historical data”. Meanwhile, a group of scientists working for the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration recently discovered that the huge flow of tropical water that powers through the Florida Straits and is a key component of the Gulf Stream has remained “remarkably stable” for over 40 years.

The UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change is all-in on the Gulf Stream scare forecasting claim that it is “very likely” that the entire AMOC will weaken in the near future. But this view was challenged in a 2023 paper published by the Royal Society. The authors found that climate models that are stuck with an assumption that humans can and do control the AMOC have been wrong for decades. Neither past nor current models are successful in representing actual AMOC observational data. They go on to add: “If it is not possible to reconcile climate models and observations of the AMOC in the historical period, then we believe the statement about future confidence about AMOC evolution should be revised. Low confidence in the past should mean lower confidence in the future.”

Much of the world’s climate is caused by a transfer of heat from the tropics towards the poles. The AMOC is thought to account for around 20-30% of the global meridional heat transfer to the higher latitudes in the atmosphere and the ocean. The evidence that the recent tiny increases in temperature that might or might not be attributed to humans will cause the huge AMOC to collapse is almost non-existent. Over the last 120,000 years we know there have been at least 24 times that temperatures in Greenland have suddenly risen by up to 15°C within a few decades. The natural forces of nature ensure the climate always changes and there is little humans can do to alter it.

Not that such thoughts would have troubled most of the British MPs that debated the insane – some might say evil – Climate and Nature Bill that failed to make progress last Friday in Parliament. This bill sought to reduce hydrocarbon use in the UK by about 90% in around a decade – a disaster that would have led to almost certain societal collapse and a return to brutal primitivism. In the line of duty, your correspondent was forced to watch over three hours of a ‘debate’ that would have shamed a sixth form full of Gretas. Almost every scare imaginable was on display without a scintilla of evidence presented to back them up. The entire clown show could keep any investigating and debunking journalist gainfully employed for months.

But of course to take the validity of these claims seriously is to slightly miss the point. They are the product of opinions and rigged climate models but it does not matter that they are mostly risible nonsense. The most important thing is that they are believed. They are broadcast to push a political agenda – to scare and brainwash. The science is ‘settled’ and beyond debate. Questioning the Ministry of Truth dogma is unacceptable because the future of the planet and generations to come poses an existential risk. That is why the BBC publishes rubbish ‘climate change’ stories about sightings of bumblebees in winter when the temperature in Scotland briefly rises to 10°C (popping out briefly for a wee, according to Britannica). That is why many people believe that the Gulf Stream will collapse the day after tomorrow.

Chris Morrison is the Daily Sceptic’s Environment Editor.

Tags: Climate AlarmismGulf streamNatureNet ZeroPropagandaScience

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15 Comments
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JeremyP99
JeremyP99
6 months ago

And, a teenager in the 1960s, I remember horror stories of the Gulf Stream collapsing and Britain getting much colder.

Sigh

12
0
transmissionofflame
transmissionofflame
6 months ago
Reply to  JeremyP99

This lady is still pushing some variation of that: A New Ice Age For Europe Is Becoming More Likely

So if it gets hotter, it’s because of AGW, and if it gets colder it’s because of AGW. If anything unhelpful happens with the weather/climate, it’s because of AGW, and if things stay the same and nothing much unhelpful happens then it’s in spite of AGW.

7
0
FerdIII
FerdIII
6 months ago

Fake Science says:

1) Denial: ‘This is wrong because our fake models and fake algos say….doom, gloom, from human emitted plant food 20 parts per million, so we know the gulf stream is destroyed…..(please send money so we can save the world).’

2) Or it is simply confirmation: ‘…this phenomenon, where nothing has changed with the gulf stream, is exactly what we predicted and only confirms that the end is nigh from the 20 parts per million emission of what creates and sustains life…(please send money so we can save the world).’

We know we are right because we are ‘The Science’ (Church of).

And if you make us angry will insert quotes from the frauds Einstotle, Hawking, NASA and Nostradamus.

5
0
varmint
varmint
6 months ago

The phony climate scare is all based on ————EVIDENCE? —–Nope. It is all based on modelling done by the government funded data adjusters. Banking and Corporate elites’ control everything—-Industry, media, governments, education, and they impose ideology from top down. Climate Change is simply another ideology used as a means of control. The Climate Crisis only exists on our TV sets. It is the tool used as the excuse for the Great Economic Reset, ie control of the world’s wealth, resources and —YOU.– This “control” will involve Vaccine Passports, Digital ID, Facial recognition, Smart Cities and Smart Meters for rationing of energy use etc etc. —–For anyone who thinks this is all conspiracy theory junk just remember that our mainstream media is owned and controlled by just one small group of Corporate Interests. This is why the Consolidated Media never Investigate anything. They follow orders. They speak of the “Climate Crisis” as if it were all some kind of ultimate truth that we can all see in front of our eyes, instead of what it really is. A manufactured crisis in support of the Political Agenda 2030.——–The Puppet masters pull the strings and we are the unsuspecting puppets that think we must all “save the planet”

9
0
Jon Garvey
Jon Garvey
6 months ago
Reply to  varmint

Since scientific theories are judged on their ability to predict, science nowadays has largely become the manufacture of theories that predict everything, and therefore nothing. Karl Popper is pinning in his grave.

5
0
Art Simtotic
Art Simtotic
6 months ago

Outbreak, Contagion, The Day After Tomorrow, An Inconvenient Truth – movies have a lot to answer for in disseminating convenient untruths.

As the Emperor of Rome from 161-180 AD once upon a time said:

“Never let the future disturb you. You will meet it, if you have to, with the same weapons of reason which today arm you against the present.”

Last edited 6 months ago by Art Simtotic
6
0
Old Arellian
Old Arellian
6 months ago
Reply to  Art Simtotic

Great quote – thank you.
[Tried to post this much earlier but must have had internet problems-again]

3
0
Hardliner
Hardliner
6 months ago

Do you remember when a few Ministers [including Cameron and R-M] were asked live on television what the price of a pint of milk and a loaf of bread were? Very revealing. Perhaps we could do the same about scientific evidence of climate change, and facts about net zero – no warning, no conferring

  • Last week my LibDem MP proclaimed that “the UK is very dependant on coal” […his constituency includes Didcot…]. Wrong. China, on the other hand….
  • When I asked him how we would get from 1% renewables powering the National Grid [last Wednesday morning], to 100%, the History graduate’s only response was waffle about future storage systems

The kind of questions I envisage would be “How long could battery power supply a small town?”. Others include ‘”What % of our electricty bill is spent paying renewable suppliers not to produce?”. A good starter for ten might be “What is £140/MWh in p/kWh?” or “What is the current wholesale price of gas?”

If you want to manage this part of our economy, Mr MP, you need to prove that you know in detail how it works; facts rather than opinions

Last edited 6 months ago by Hardliner
8
0
Old Arellian
Old Arellian
6 months ago
Reply to  Hardliner

Excellent idea

3
0
Jon Garvey
Jon Garvey
6 months ago

There is quite a gulf between “no decline since 1960s” and “collapse this year.” In other words, if it were that imminent there would have been undeniable signs, and there aren’t.

It’s like Packham on Winterwatch explaining some minor change in migration patterns as partly due to “climate collapse.” In what world does the collapse of the climate system merely shift the range-balance of migrant birds?

5
0
Climan
Climan
6 months ago

But just how important is the Gulf Stream? “Scientists say” … some certainly do … that it is NOT very important for the climate of Western Europe, what is important is simply the winter storage heater that is the Atlantic Ocean, together with the fact that the prevailing winds blow over it.

The Atlantic Ocean is warmed by the sun in Spring and Summer, and releases the heat in Autumn and Winter. The Gulf Stream is just icing on the cake, especially for high latitudes.

3
0
Ben Bellak
Ben Bellak
6 months ago

The BBC claimed the Gulf Stream was speeding up and that was the cause of these storms (kind of) did anyone else see that very short bit at the end of report on the storms? I don’t think I imagined it!

1
0
marebobowl
marebobowl
6 months ago

Geoengineering, DAROA, weather manipulation, chem trails. I lke so many long for the truth. How about a real s idntist interview? Professor Willie Soon, astrophysicist would be a good start.

0
0
DontPanic
DontPanic
6 months ago

How long before this paper gets deplatformed by lobbying of vested interests. We have just received a climate and flooding report for a house we are buying. It says the surface water flood risk is high, yet the government’s own website says the risk is low. I suspect the company is using climate modelling data to predict what it will be rather than the current and historic. They have not given any dates of previous flooding and neighbours say there has been none.

0
0
SomersetHoops
SomersetHoops
6 months ago

I heard one metrologist on TV saying the most recent storm was due to a stronger than usual Gulf Stream. I presume that as most things metrological it was just a normal variation and nothing to do with climate change.

0
0

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