The final official data for car registrations last year have been released by SMMT. Battery electric vehicles (BEV) ended the year with a market share of 19.6%, well below the ZEV mandate of 22%, despite a bumper December.
BEV registrations for the month were 56% compared to December 2023, which clearly is not a representative figure. Remember that these are registrations, not sales. It is therefore extremely likely that carmakers have been pre-registering thousands of EVs in order to get closer to their target. We also know they have been offering unaffordable discounts for purchases before the end of the year.
Either way, there appears to be no way that the BEV share will rise to the mandated 28% this year.
It is worth looking behind the numbers though.
First of all, EV take up in the private sector remains stubbornly low at one in 10. There is simply no way total EV sales will get anywhere target if private buyers, who account for 38% of the market, refuse to buy them.
Secondly, sales of petrol and diesels fell sharply in December, as carmakers cut back on production in order to artificially raise the ratio of EVs.
This is evident from the November manufacturing figures, which are 30% down on November 2023.
Registration of Ford cars last year in the U.K. fell by 23%, Nissan 12%, Toyota 8% and Vauxhall 21%. These are alarming figures, not least for the two Japanese companies.
Nissan, for instance, saw registrations fall from 100,000 to 89,000 between 2023 and 2024. Sales of the Leaf have been plummeting recently, and sales of the petrol/diesel Qashqai and Juke models account for 77,000 on their own. Clearly Nissan will miss the 22% target by a long way.
So will Toyota, which has been been specialising in hybrids in recent years. Late to the EV party, its only electric offering, the Toyota bZ4X, was introduced to the U.K. last June and costs over £40,000, well outside the affordability of the mass market sector. Toyota registrations fell from 108,000 to 101,000 last year. Expect more large cutbacks next year to reduce sales of petrol/diesel.
Neither Nissan or Toyota are in a strong position to meet the challenge of Chinese-made EVs, and there surely must be question marks over their future U.K. operations as they will no longer be viable under existing ZEV mandates.
Meanwhile, Chinese EV manufacturers Polestar and BYD clocked up 17,481 EV registrations in 2024, giving them 13,635 surplus ZEV allowances, which they may be able sell at a price close £15,000 each to carmakers who have fallen short of target and will otherwise have to pay that much in fines. That will hand Polestar and BYD a nice little windfall of £204 million!
Tesla too will rubbing its hands with glee, with its 50,334 registrations, potentially worth £600 million.
If you wanted to destroy the U.K. car industry, while enriching Chinese and U.S. manufacturers, I cannot think of a better way to do it.
This article was first published on Paul Homewood’s blog, Not a Lot of People Know That.
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Some people need to be locked in a room , until they can satisfactorily explain the ‘invisible hand’, as defined by Adam Smith……and if they can’t …throw the key away…for all our sakes.
For advice on vehicle propulsion, consult a motor mechanic; for home heating, consult a heating engineer; to see the climate yarn for what it is, engage critical faculties.
IPCC economist Ottmar Edenhofer (among numerous others) gave the game away ahead of COP-16 in 2010:
“One has to free oneself from the illusion that international climate policy is environmental policy. Instead, climate change policy is about how we redistribute de facto the world’s wealth.”
Eleven days until the Inauguration and counting. Stand by for the bonfire of the inanities.
Yup, the wealth is stacking up in the vaults of the wealthy and the public sector. I fail to see any improvements in the lot of the working classes
Double heist. Milk the climate fallacy for all it’s worth and take from the taxpayer to enrich the rich and pander to the public sector.
Who will play Robin Hood, who will be Little John and who will be Maid Marion? Any number of Sheriffs of Nottingham abound…
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Huc04P4rTnM
…They don’t make ’em like that any more.
Who? Blackrock!
We Hope
Many of the petrol/diesel (ICE) cars currently on the road can easily be kept going for 10-15 years with some care and good maintenance. The question is will TPTB allow this to happen? Will they sit by and watch while a resourceful public keep their elderly ICE cars chugging along for years to come? Or will we see an increasing range of measures to ‘drive’ ICE cars off the road?
I don’t think politicians have even thought about the hit on national productivity. Imagine the millions of people who spend their hard earned money in running an ICE car, so they can get to work. This will be at all times of the day, well away from public transport networks.
EVs are just not an option for millions. The economy would grind to a halt overnight. The Government (as it is finding out) can’t beat the markets.
At one level the hit on productivity is very basic, many staff have now been issued with Electric Vans for work and I saw a clip the other day of a guy who was being paid to spend an hour a day sitting in his van while it charged at a public charging station.
I genuinely believe this government are quite happy at the prospect of the economy grinding to a halt. On fact I would go further – that is their intention. Probably followed by some sort of martial law. It’s not as if they haven’t imported an army for the purpose, suitably dispersed around the country.
I think that’s too far. Any Force (Military, Police etc) takes a huge amount of organisation and requires clear leadership. I haven’t seen any evidence of any such arrangements.
I also think that even Labour (imbeciles that they obviously are) wouldn’t wish to stop the economy. If they did, they have no control levers left. They wouldn’t last a week.
A slow demolition seems to be what they want, so they can build back better. Whoever came up with “you will own nothing etc, it was on the WEF website so must’ve been sanctioned at the highest level.
I think you grant them an intelligence that is hundreds of times greater than that which they possess. Occam’s Razor is best applied in all cases.
That’s why the Globalists prefer Stakeholder Capitalism.
will we see an increasing range of measures to ‘drive’ ICE cars off the road?
I think we will. But the consequences will so so disastrous that a government backdown will happen.
There will be all sorts of measures but the big one will be when Petrol Garages get phased out ! Lots of motorway forecourts have strange owners now, not BP or Shell , a bit like when a shop chain pulls out of a town & small independents try to carry on !
Well in the old days that was all there was. Heard about the profits of the big blue chip supermarkets today. All good when you have a monopoly on the food chain.
They have been for decades.
See video above/below….Geoff recons they will try and tax old cars into oblivion.
One thing we clearly learned from covid is that there is really no limit to the damage the establishment is willing to do to get its way when it is determined to do so.
Look at the carnage the created in the economy, in people’s rights, in standards of basic human decency. They did not hesitate to destroy it all in pursuit of their goals. (Whether you believe they were well meaning or not is irrelevant)
So anyone hoping to see a course correction on cars and Net Zero on the basis of the damage it is creating is going to be bitterly disappointed.
Will Reform save the day if we can hang on. As Clarkson said, then this shower of sh!t will be over.
How Agenda 2030 impacts car values: Geoff buys Cars
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VLsMMvz3yHw