“I would rather have questions that can’t be answered than answers that can’t be questioned.” I’m with Nobel Prize winner Richard Feynman on this. Consequently, this article may raise more questions than answers.
One such question would be: if the worst ‘pandemic’ in 100 years pulled forward literally millions of deaths, why hasn’t there been a subsequent trough? And this isn’t a phenomenon we’ve seen only in the U.K.; if anything, it’s been far more pronounced in Asia.
Professor David Livermore, in a recent article about life in post-pandemic Taiwan, referred to the current high excess death rate in many Asian countries. It wasn’t something of which I had been particularly conscious. A quick look at Our World in Data confirmed his claim. Excess deaths in Singapore and Taiwan since the end of 2021 and the beginning of 2022 have remained remarkably high. These were countries where the populations largely escaped high death tolls throughout the ‘pandemic’ and where the lockdowns tended to be fairly light-touch, but where the take-off in excess deaths followed the vaccine rollout in 2021 and 2022.
You’ll notice that the comparator data in Figure 1 is from 2015-2019. While in the U.K. claims may be made that we saw significant immigration during this period (though, not on the whole among the elderly and vulnerable), the same cannot be said of Asian countries such as South Korea or Japan, where, whilst there continues to be a gradual ageing of the population, there is very little immigration. Thus the subsequent rise in deaths is not due to a related increase in population.
One of the enduring mysteries of the Covid pandemic was why Asian countries appeared to do so much better than Western nations. Covid deaths per million people were reported to have been about 10 times higher in the U.K. and much of the West than across Asian countries as a whole. Our World in Data report 3,404 deaths per million for the U.K. while for Asia the comparable figure was just 347.
Various reasons have been put forward for the discrepancy. A friend of mine, a great advocate of the official Covid narrative and a frequent visitor to Japan, used to assure me it was down to the Japanese’s pre-existing fondness for facemasks (he still thinks facemasks make a difference). Another theory he’s put to me is that it’s down to the Japanese preference for the bow rather than the handshake. Oddly, this belief survived the knowledge that transmission was via aerosol rather than touch. Many people attributed it to the leanness of Asians and their low-fat diet. As late as March 2022 the BMJ was publishing articles extolling Japan’s “success” in handling the ‘pandemic’, attributing it to their “compliance”. In any case, the point is that the explosion in excess deaths came once Covid deaths had dropped with the arrival of the Omicron variant, meaning the virus can’t be blamed any more than population increase can.
Another thing that’s not causing Asian excess deaths is a sudden drop in health spending. Japan and South Korea have seen an almost 20% rise in health spending per capita over the past five years, about twice the increase we’ve seen.
Figure 4 is a slightly busy chart showing all-cause excess mortality for the past two and a half years for the U.K. against a backdrop of Asian countries since April 2022. Notice anything?
That’s right. All of a sudden, the tables have turned. Now the U.K. has lower excess deaths than these Asian countries, yet oddly, while in 2020 Asia’s experience was the stick used to beat the U.K. over our hopelessness at contending with Covid, I can’t find any articles in the BMJ or anywhere else asking why Asians are now dying at such high rates. It seems odd that no one seems much interested when we were all so interested in similar levels of excess deaths in 2020.
Admittedly, the U.K. position isn’t much to write home about. Excess deaths have been hovering around the 10% level for the past two years. But they are now lower than our masked, bowing, lean Asian friends.
Figure 5 shows the cumulative profile of ‘all-cause’ excess deaths across the UK from January 2020 to the end of 2023. By the end of 2020, cumulative excess deaths were at 13%. By the end of 2023 they’d dropped, but only by three percentage points to 10%. And, where’s the compensating trough? How can we have all these deaths pulled forward without a corresponding drop in subsequent years? If the dry tinder’s been burnt where did the continuing excess deaths come from?
Now let’s look at Japan. Remarkably, the latest OWID figures for Japan show excess deaths to be 27% higher than in previous years. That’s more than twice the cumulative rate we experienced in 2020 (though Japan’s own cumulative rate is lower). As you can see from Figure 6, in Japan over the past 30 months, no month has had a lower rate of excess deaths than the 13% cumulative figure we experienced in 2020.
The situation in Singapore is similar. The latest excess death rate is 24%. Singapore has only seen two months over the past 30 months when excess deaths have dropped below 20%.
What’s the cause of all these excess deaths? Ageing populations are partly to blame, but that’s true in the U.K. too, and over just a few years this has a minimal impact. In Japan deaths from circulatory diseases, mainly heart failure, have increased significantly since 2020-21.
In the U.K., as can be seen in Figure 9, excess heart failure deaths from April 2021 were consistently high, frequently breaking the 20% excess barrier. As in Japan, excess deaths from heart failure in particular, while elevated, appear to be only a relatively small part of the overall story. But certainly there are questions to be answered.
I don’t know if there is any great clamour in South Korea, Taiwan or Japan to investigate what’s been going on, and if there is, whether those asking questions of the authorities have had any more success than we in the U.K. have managed, but I imagine not or we would likely have heard about it.
Finally, I’ve reproduced the excess deaths chart for the USA, where rates have also remained relatively high with no trough following the remarkably high excess deaths throughout 2020 and 2021.
I only look to the U.S. because it’s going to have RFK Jr in its corner. He’s got a lot on his plate, but we can hope that he will be able to set up a truly independent group to look further into this and just maybe some of these questions will be answered.
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It is, of course, blindingly obvious that, if the average age of covid death is, as near as damn it, the same as life expectancy in Britain (which it is) then either most covid deaths were incorrectly attributed or covid was simply another flu season Influenza Like Illness (ILI), a common cold coronavirus similar to those ILI that occur in Britain most years (or both).
That being the case, if covid is not misdiagnosed or misattributed, the ‘covid death toll’, as in Asia, will be nothing out of the ordinary.
So the increasing body of evidence linking covid vaccines to serious adverse health effects is a major concern that deserves a great deal more attention, you know, like an inquiry….oh!….hang on…….
Very well done the author of this article.
Yes, great article. Also obvious, though not blindingly, is that true excess deaths must be even higher than shown precisely because covid must have brought some deaths forward (though see Soundofreason’s excellent point below).
Also, the excess deaths should themselves result in a subsequent compensating trough, at least for the over 70s. But there isn’t one because the underlying cause is ongoing.
Flying viruses don’t exist. The plandemic was never a pandemic. A pandemic is where a bacterial contagion has killed half your street, not an accumulation of symptoms across various ‘diseases’ blamed on a false virus, where the death rate until the lockdowns and stabs never moved. ‘Rona’ death rate was 0.3% if you believe in Rona. A simple fact.
I worked in the HSA as the Rona fake-numbers reporting architect. We know:
1-Lockdowns killed, record suicides etc. mental, physical, physiological issues galore.
2-LDs and closed doors allowed the fascists to murder some 30.000 with midazolam and morphine, spring 2020.
3-Stabs – every stab programme resulted in huge spikes in dead 3-5 months following the stab programme.
4-More stabs = cancer, heart disease and longer term illnesses resulting in death.
All the stabs contain variants of mercury, aluminium, formadelhyde, and toxins. These will impact your liver and gall bladder (cancer); your pancreas (insulin); your ph cell levels (brain fog, lethargy etc); your electron flows (reduced directly leading to illness); your thyroid (energy, hormones) etc.
Why are excess deaths still high?
It takes time to kill you with poisons. An example is fluoride. It is aluminium. Leads to dementia, and other organ failure. The stabs are poisons. There is no proof whatsoever that a shot of junk in your shoulder will protect you from a ‘virus’. None.
But keep stabbing and keep believing. And don’t forget – eat trans fat, processed foods, smoke, drink too much, snort some, watch porn and live a desultory self obsessed life. I am told this is ‘healthy’.
According to Dr Malone, who invented mRNA vaccines, the Covid vaccine also wrecks the bodies natural immune system, at a cellular level, thus allowing any disease lieing dormant/contained to re-emerge…hence the explosion in so called ‘turbo’ cancers, where the cancer races through it’s different stages….the same happens with any other disease/illness.
How much longer the medical community can remain silent, is a huge question.
In this case the author actually gives us both in one. Questions that can’t’ be answered (because if you do answer it you’ll get into trouble… yep, that’s the country we live in now) and answers that can’t be questioned (the fake answers we are given can’t be questioned… yep, that’s the country we live in now).
So we’re left with this very subtle, unspoken, highly suggestive sort of dissent where everyone really knows what is being said.
I wonder how long our totalitarian regime will allow it?
Actually I know the answer, as long as it remains inconsequential and niche like on here.
If it ever becomes more popular and vocal, the author will get the Mark Steyn treatment.
“A friend of mine, a great advocate of the official Covid narrative and a frequent visitor to Japan, used to assure me it was down to the Japanese’s pre-existing fondness for facemasks (he still thinks facemasks make a difference).”
Still your friend, that must be some friendship. Well done you, Nick.
Exactly. I struggle to be with muggles as they refuse to ‘do the work’ that they subconsciously understand will show they were fooled and made terrible mistakes as a result.
People who cannot be honest with themselves and subsequently cast me as the fool are NOT worthy of unreserved friendship till they puzzle it all out (and tell you so). Sometimes they start tell me stuff like I haven’t got to that simple point and surpassed it long before. I am not kind to them. I tell them straight. They don’t like it but I am OK with truth as my No1 bestie.
RFKjr claimed in an interview that Covid had been genetically designed to ethnically target Caucasians and blacks but spare Chinese and Ashkenazi Jews.
Naomi Wolf at the Daily Clout has pointed out that the vax was made by the CCP Fosun Parmaceuticals under license to manufacturing facilities in the West.
All by design.
Not heard that before, looking forward to when he gets in and shakes things up.
Do you have a link to that RFKjr interview?
What does it mean to measure “deaths per million people”? Is that per million living people? I am surprised the cumulative graph does not go down then as at some point you would expect that through births and immigration the denominator would grow while the numerator would not.
Not if you are poisoning people by continuing to “vaccinate” them repeatedly, the proportion that become ill and die is going to stay fairly stable and elevated.
Nick Rendell poses the questions elegantly and less provocatively than many. It’s a good thing not to go in too hard and alienate the target audience.
Although he refers to ‘dry tinder’ later in the article his opening question “…if the worst ‘pandemic’ in 100 years pulled forward literally millions of deaths, why hasn’t there been a subsequent trough?” misses an important point: There was a compensating trough (in the UK, at least) – but it was in 2018-19 ie before the peak in 2020.
(note non-zero y-axis)
The chart shows age-standardised mortality rate (ASMR) for England and Wales (separately) the dip in 2019 almost completely compensates for the peak in 2020. Whether people find the concept offensive or not, we went into 2020 with many more people who we might have expected to have died already based on previous years’ averages.
The effect is even more pronounced if instead of examining mortality based on winter to winter years we look at mid-summer to mid-summer years.
(note non-zero y-axis)
What the first chart does show us is that something changed significantly in 2011-12.
Prior to that we had an almost continuous drop in ASMR since 1922. It flattened out in 2011-12. Probably just as well: if it had continued indefinitely we’d have no death at all by 2067.
Thanks for this. I am not keen on the concept of “excess deaths” and the concept of “covid deaths” seems like nonsense to me. Your graphs are IMO a lot more helpful as they show that there’s not much going on if you look at the long term trends.
Instead of ‘excess’ it’s ‘more than expected’ death. How we calculate that is open to discussion.
One problem with using ASMR is it can obscure details in the age groups who are dying.
The dates littered through the final chart are various significant health events most of which don’t stand out in the grand scheme.
Dates of possible interest
I agree about age bands – it’s important that someone drills down into the detail to see if there is a specific issue that requires further investigation. But looking at the graph over a long period gives a perspective that would probably calm most people down. 2020 was the worst year since….2008. Bet most people think/thought 2020 was the worst year since WW2.
As you say, something changed from 2011-12 to flatten out the fall in ASMR – very evident in your first graph. But what? This seems an important question. The observation ‘probably just as well’ does not get us very far.
It’s plausible to me that improvements in longevity from better nutrition, healthcare etc will reach a point where they are tiny or things go backwards because we may be reaching the limits of how long the human body can keep going.
Hmmmmm !!!!!!…lets see now…..what did we do that might have caused this outrage…..Oh yes we stuffed everyone, with a new vaccine, that hadn’t been tested and it’s own inventor, Dr Malone said, would likely result in wrecking the bodies immune system, leaving the body’s capacity to fight off any disease/condition, severely impaired, so much so cancers might explode, dormant/cured ones might come racing back, all sorts of problems could occur in the heart …in fact any disease/illness that the bodies immune system had under control, might well suddenly re-emerge.
So we ignored his advice and still keep telling everyone to get jabbed…….despite all the real world evidence that Dr Malone was dead right…..and as yet no-one has worked out, just why we did this…..because this scandal may well be the biggest medical scandal of all time……luckily soon Rand Paul will lift his gavel and start putting blow torches up jacksies.
Let me guess
oh yea ! Could it be the Jabathon 
… countries such as South Korea or Japan, where, whilst there continues to be a gradual ageing of the population, there is very little immigration.
By the by, how is it that they don’t think continual immigration is necessary to keep their economies afloat but we do?
Because they haven’t elected a Davos zombie government.
Racial and cultural pride are probably still common there among the established population.
With a disease that killed off some of the weak earlier than expected, then once that has gone you would expect to see a drop in expected deaths. And lo and behold, go to countries with low jab rates and that is exactly what you see for Bulgaria, Romania, Belarus etc.
I wish I had kept a copy of the 300+ things that you can get from the jab. Myocarditus, pericarditus, Guillane Barre syndrome were all new to me. I know 2 people diagnosed with pericarditus and told it is ‘Long Covid’ – really? The husband of our lead commons ranger has Behcet’s Syndrome – a vascular disease little known here and they googled it to suggest it to their NHS workers – that has moved around his body from his eyes and now to his heart. A classic jab effect. And yesterday was the funeral of my neighbour. He was fine and fit just 18 months ago but come October last year he was struggling to walk and they did not know why. He was then confined to a wheelchair and now has died. Another jab success it would seem.
Denis Rancourt (https://denisrancourt.ca/) has compiled another paper based on his earlier analysis of mortality data from 125 countries around the world: Medical Hypothesis: Respiratory epidemics and pandemics without viral transmission.
Quoting from his paper:
The dominant (industry-promoted) paradigm of a pandemic is that a novel virulent pathogen emerges randomly or by design and spreads from person to person to many places, causing death. The latest twist is that the said novel pathogen immediately spawns genetic variants of itself, causing cascading pandemics in succession over the same territories visited by the parent pathogen.
The long-term so-called solution advanced by the industry and governments is to constantly vaccinate entire populations, repeatedly, to boost immunity and to address the new variants.
The end result of permanent national COVID-19 vaccine-campaign dependence resembles a protection racket. The yearly cost of these continuing vaccinations from public funds during the Covid period (2020-2023) was comparable to USA arms sales to its so-called allies.
His work disproves the theory that a virus, SARS-CoV-2, and its variants was the cause of the ‘pandemic’.
Of the 125 countries analysed, 110 had sufficient data to show significant associations between vaccine rollouts and excess mortality.
He concludes another prime source of death was due to aspiration pneumonia induced by the massive biological and psychological stress as well as extraordinary medical assaults imposed on the world’s populations during the Covid period.
Aspiration pneumonia is a dominant cause of death in old people in ordinary (non-pandemic-response) circumstances, especially in care facilities and hospitals. It is the leading cause of death among residents of nursing homes.
My hypothesis is that the pandemic-response circumstances of the Covid period (the mandates, measures and medical assaults) induced a significantly amplified occurrence and virulence of aspiration pneumonia in elderly and frail populations … The general and systemic denial of antibiotics would have been devastating … Likewise, the novel and widespread hospital use of mechanical ventilation during the Covid period is difficult to understand given the knowledge that existed in 2020 about ventilator-associated pneumonia and ventilation-induced aspiration pneumonia. Ventilation was a sure way to induce aggressive pneumonias, irrespective of anything else.
Finally:
Within the present state of knowledge, it is possible that the declared Covid pandemic (2020-2023) was entirely caused by the coordinated and large-scale mandates, measures, so-called responses, and medical assaults including testing, diagnostic bias, isolation, denial of treatment (especially antibiotics for pneumonia), mechanical ventilation, sedation, experimental and improper treatments, and vaccination …
The viral spread theory of respiratory pandemics as a cause of the declared Covid pandemic is disproved by a large amount of spatiotemporal excess all-cause mortality data worldwide, irrespective of whether the presumed virus is postulated to be natural or engineered …
Furthermore, it is possible that all recorded pandemics in history have occurred in this way, from biological-stress-induced (including environmental exposure and extreme malnutrition) transmissionless spontaneous self-infections.
The Covid-19 ‘pandemic’ will eventually be exposed as one of the biggest medical scams in history… only the tobacco scam and, of course, AIDS scans being greater
What’s disturbing is how these obvious scams are allowed to be repeated.
Why do you think?
Weirdly I didn’t know anybody that died of Covid despite the extinction event narrative. Sadly I do know 3 people in the last two years who died of myocarditis. Never knew anyone previously who died of this.
They were all healthy, one was 70, one was 17 and one was 26. They didn’t know each other and they weren’t related.
In fact they only had one thing in common…
All this graph-loving isn’t going to get us very far. Especially not with “deaths per million” in the UK at 3 million (according to one of the graphs)!
There is so much noise in these graphs that you can’t really learn anything from them. There are far too many variables that affect death rates (for example: weather and climate, levels of depression/national happiness, economic changes, changes in the healthcare system, lockdowns, immigration/emigration, and many, many more).
It seems to me that fixation on these type of graphs is falling into the same trap as the public health nutters, who obsessed over statistics during the pandemic.
I don’t even buy the “dry tinder” argument. In fact, if COVID took those who were going to die anyway of other causes, then you would not expect to see any excess deaths during the pandemic. Also, although we know that COVID mostly killed elderly people, elderly people are not necessarily very near death. In fact, according to the ONS, a male 80 year old is likely to live for a further 9 years.
https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/healthandlifeexpectancies/articles/lifeexpectancycalculator/2019-06-07
Staggering that people are still chattering about this – it plays straight to the agenda of the people who have murdered over 20 million people worldwide so far with the outrage,