In a recent interview that ‘went viral’, vaccine sceptic Ed Dowd claimed that the deaths of U.K. 0-14 year-olds were up by 22%. Fact checkers went into overdrive to rubbish the claim. Though rather than countering the data unearthed by Dowd, and which to the inconvenience of the fact checkers were factually correct, they tended to rely on dubious claims that vaccines had saved X million lives – according to models rather than real-world data. As usual, they didn’t engage with the actual data available.
I’m reluctant to do the fact checkers’ job for them but I thought you might appreciate understanding what truth there was in Dowd’s assertion. I then wanted to point out the danger of putting too much faith in individual analysts. We all need to be wary of people overstating their claims, whichever ‘side’ they are on.
The data I’m going to use come from the Office for Health Improvements and Disparities’ (OHID’s) wonderful online tool that it stopped updating back in December 2023 when, in its wisdom, it opted for a new way to calculate ‘expected deaths’, using a methodology so complex as to defy any mortal man from sorting the sheep from the goats. The OHID data only cover England.
The OHID data are less granular than those used by Dowd, but they show much the same thing, though for a wider age range covering the 0-24 age-cohort. What’s more, it’s easier to access.
Here are the charts published by the OHID. The top chart shows weekly excess all-cause deaths for 0-24 year-olds and the lower chart shows total weekly all-cause deaths for the same age group. The little orange bits are ‘Covid’ deaths. As a rule of thumb, about 100 0-24 year-olds die each week in England.
Looking at these two charts should you be alarmed or reassured? In both charts you can see deaths start to rise just after the start of the vaccine rollout period. Coincidence?
Firstly, let’s see if I can alarm you. In 2020 from the start of the first lockdown to the year end there were 3,497 deaths in the age group, that’s 416 (11%) fewer deaths than were expected. Let’s gloss over the fact that, despite a supposedly ‘once in a century’ pandemic, 2020 was the safest year ever to be a 0-24 year-old – though it wasn’t safe because young people were protected from Covid but because road accidents and murders, the big killers of young people, decreased. Conversely, from April 2023 to December 2023 there were 4,142 deaths, 645 (18%) more than in the same period in 2020 and 418 (11%) more deaths than were expected.
There you go. Ed Dowd was right, and not just for the 0-14 year-olds but for the expanded 0-24 year-olds too. Deaths among young people were 22% higher in 2023 than they had been in 2020.
Now, using exactly the same data let’s try and reassure you.
Let’s look at the 12 month periods starting from week 12 (week ending March 27th in 2020) for each year from 2020 to 2023. Over the full 196 week period there were 19,477 registered deaths of 0-24 year-olds. This was 574 more deaths than the 18,903 that we expected. The difference is 3%. So, over the entirety of this ‘once in a century’ pandemic only 3% more 0-24 year-olds died than we expected; surely a triumph for Government policy!
Let’s now add the missing years and look at the 12 month periods starting from week 12 for 2020, 2021 and 2022, and the 40 week period from week 12 for 2023.
In Figure 3 excess deaths as a percentage of expected deaths are shown by the red line. Rising from a low of –7% in 2020-21 it rises to +11% by the end of 2023. Likewise, the 3% overall excess deaths for the entire 196 week period is shown by the red column on the right-hand side of the chart.
Clearly, Covid (the dark blue boxes) didn’t much influence the deaths figure in any year, peaking at 2% of deaths in 2021. Bearing in mind that virtually all those deaths would have been ‘with’ not ‘of’ Covid, you can see how minimal Covid was for this age-cohort.
From trough to peak we can see that using these 12 months figures there was an 18% increase in deaths, but this is a distortion that overstates the situation because it compares trough to peak.
However, while Ed Dowd was overstating the trend in one direction (by using the abnormally low 2020 figure as a baseline), the ‘fact checkers’ and Government bodies were understating it in the other direction. An 11% increase is really quite dramatic and annually rising fatality rates in the 0-24 year-olds deserve a bit of investigation.
It’s beyond comical the way articles, such as this one in the Telegraph last week titled ‘Has the pandemic made us sicker?‘, mention an endless list of possible causes of excess deaths in countries around the world, but fail to mention the possible link to mRNA vaccines. The BTL commentators are rather less circumspect!
Now I come to my point about being wary of people overstating their case even when they’re on the ‘right’ side. Ed Dowd is right to flag up that something is up, something needs investigating, but he’s wrong to overplay the data. Are recent excess deaths down to SADS, heart failure, murders, road traffic accidents or some other cause? Someone in authority should be looking into this and coming up with plausible explanations. It’s the same with Naomi Wolf and many other Covid critics: they can often overstate their case, to the detriment of the cause.
However, for me, the argument decrying the Government’s vaccine coercion, lockdown and all aspects of its Covid policy doesn’t rely on efficacy or safety; the core issue is individual choice. My body, my choice, my freedoms, my decisions.
The vaccines could have been the safest and most efficacious ever produced, yet still a coercive policy to get us to take them was always wrong. Their ineffectiveness and lack of safety merely makes the argument more persuasive. It’s the same with the lockdowns, masks, social distancing, the right to travel. Their rightness or wrongness doesn’t depend on how effective they were; rather it comes down to personal liberties. My Government shouldn’t be able to lock me up in my own home any more than it should force me to take a medical treatment against my will.
This brings me onto those who belatedly adopted ‘vaccine-sceptical’ positions. Many of them never took principled positions against coercion to enforce vaccine policy. Rather, in the light of the evidence that the vaccines were neither safe nor effective they’ve decided they object to unsafe, ineffective vaccines being coercively administered. But they were perfectly happy when they thought the vaccines were ‘safe and effective’ for them to be forced upon you and me, and some of them have still not renounced that view. These people are not on my team.
In the same way, many people now object to lockdowns. However, the grounds for objection too often are not that it was wrong to restrict personal freedoms by law – they were perfectly happy to have those freedoms curtailed at the time – they only objected when it became apparent that the measures were ineffective or unnecessary. This is not a principled objection, merely a pragmatic one.
Why does this matter? It matters because when the next pandemic arises, or some other challenge that looks likely to be met by the Government restricting personal liberties, you need to know who you can trust. Those whose objections to such policies are dependent upon their effectiveness and safety can’t be relied upon to jump the right way when the crisis hits. As Groucho Marx said: “These are my principles, and if you don’t like them, I have others.”
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That’s as may be, but I’ll wait for the Lancet to explain how locking up children is medically beneficial to post-colonial climate justice.
If that sounds like I’m being flippant, well, it’s nice to finally see studies like this coming out, but it’s really a “You don’t say?” matter. Of course isolating social monkeys for a year (or more) is going to have dreadful outcomes.
Everything in the Covid/Climate change is unnatural. Carbon Dioxide is vital to all life on Earth and yet it’s treated like a toxic gas. Covid is the same as a cold or a flu and yet is being treated as the most dangerous disease ever invented.
The people must now fight this evil.
The Mother of all Dutch Anti Lockdown Protest Amsterdam 5-9-2021 – if you thought the Dutch were cultured they too sing “you can stick you New Worl Order up your ****! ”
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MWHui59eMvo
Next Peaceful & Friendly Roadside Banner Events : Bracknell, Henley-on-Thames & Wokingham
– let’s join in with Worldwide backlash before it’s too late
4pm Tuesday 7th September
Henley Bridge/White Hill,
Henley-on-Thames RG9 2LP
5pm Friday 10th September
Loddon Bridge, (Winnersh Garden Centre/Showcase Cinema)
Reading Rd, Winnersh,
Wokingham Berks RG41 5HG
** 12pm September 11th ** Hold The Line Event (like the Baltic countries in 1989 )
Meet on Wokingham Rd outside Weather Vane Pub Arlington Square, Wokingham Rd (B3408) , Bracknell RG42 1NA
As the Weather Vane still requires masks I wouldn’t drink there. Please don’t park there.
11:30am Saturday 18th September Grand Stand in the Park Grove Park (nr basketball court), 21 Mill Ln, Carshalton SM5 2AN
12pm to 3pm Sunday 19th September 2021 Surrey’s Super Stand in the Park , Stoke Park, Nightingale Rd, Guildford GU1 1ER. – after your local Stands!!
Stand in South Hill Park Bracknell –
Sundays from 10am & Wednesdays from 2pm
Make friends – keep sane
http://t.me/astandintheparkbracknell
Will peaceful protests be enough to stop the globalist Covid-19 behemoth?
No I honestly believe they will do a great job of stopping themselves when they run out of fear porn ammunition and their policies become hilarious parodies of totalitarianism. They went for shock and awe. It didn’t work out and they aren’t converting anyone that wasn’t already on board. Let’s stay positive, we’ll get to see these people behind bars (or worse) eventually.
I’m a massive fan of germs and bacteria and viruses. Bring ’em on. We seem to have forgotten what millions of years of evolution have done to create an amazing microbiome within us that we live symbiotically with.
All this ‘let’s clean everything to kill everything’ does us no favours. I roll my eyes at all the people in the gym still cleaning down equipment after using it. Same with bath and shower soap – just get rid of it – does the body no good. Water is all you need (maybe a drop for pits and privates but that is all).
If people only realised that their bodies are home to literally billions of different microbes that are both within them and on their skin, they wouldn’t be so quick to ‘disinfect’ everything with that disgusting hand sanitizer gunk. I used to work on antimicrobial resistance… the problem is bad now, but we ain’t seen nothing yet! The sloshing around of 70% ethanol everywhere is going to cause a massive problem down the line for those of us left with a functional immune system.
Same, I was forced out of my actual profession during the lockdowns (I normally work at a gym funnily enough and also hate the obsessive, ritualistic cleaning, now I just give the sanitiser a few token sprays in the general direction of what I was using to keep up appearances), and worked in a supermarket. I didn’t enjoy myself one jot, however I was immensely grateful to be out of the house, mixing with others as much as possible, breathing the same air, touching things etc. Getting my hands dirty as it were. I ditched the hand sanitiser and I just washed my hands at the times I normally would and got on with it. I was thankful that house arrest didn’t have the opportunity to retard my immune system
Agreed.
I rarely use soap except for a little for puts and privates in the shower. Explained to wife – who has a degree in biology – she was a bit weirded out but got it.
I had a feral childhood roaming the countryside from age 7 so used to being dirty.
Get a dog. People may be isolating, dogs are not. When I see my dog licking my children’s faces I know their gut fauna is benefitting.
it’s a feature, not a bug
This article more than anything else highlights how little we know about the microbial world.
Microbiologists can’t make up their minds whether less population interaction means we our immune systems don’t get a strong enough work out or whether too much population increases the mutations of microbial pathogens and the risk that one of them becomes really deadly killer (i.e. not SarsCOV2..)
Hundreds of years after the plague, we still don’t really know why some people seemed immune to it and didn’t die from it.
We don’t really know how viruses spread.
We don’t know whether viruses lie latent in our bodies and ebb and flow like a tide depending on the state of our immune system, or whether we get sick only from outside contagion.
I’m not an biologist myself, but I deduce they haven’t a clue about any of these things, simply because of they way public health officials have flailed around for 18 months making up useless measures.
At least the last year or so has showed us how little the medical/scientific world actually does know, on a very basic level. That’s okay, I don’t hold that against any specialist in their field, but at least they should be honest. Too many aren’t and would rather do something, even if it creates more havoc than doing nothing.
“…but at least they should be honest. Too many aren’t and would rather do something, even if it creates more havoc than doing nothing.”
Absolutely. One ‘evolutionary finding’ is the need for certain academic disciplines to be put back in their box as highly speculative (and provisionally – in perspective – worthwhile) enterprises.
Public health in a general historical perspective, has been probably the most potent beneficial medical intervention. But the recent role of ‘Public Health’ as a profession has been a disaster of craven significance seeking (rather than evidence-based intervention) that has negated the term.
Spot on. Having read the 2019 WHO pandemic influenza plan, it became clear that the “experts” were basically fumbling around in the dark.
and some “experts” weren’t experts just narcissists with a white board and an afternoon to scribble on it.
They are quite concerned with the “backsliding” of gender roles.
At least it’s not all bad news then.
the world has done a massive experiment on itself with no idea of the long term outcomes (this goes for vaccines as well as lockdowns)
time will tell.
Since we know that: masks, SD, lockdowns do nothing epidemiologically, then I consider it highly unlikely that they have inhibited the spread of any pathogen at all.
The paper displays a touching faith in the efficacy of such measures.
The immune system is like your muscles, if you don’t exercise them regularly you loose strength. Personally I actively go out and socialise and don’t do any covid crap in the hope I get infections to exercise my immune system.
I’m old enough to remember disease parties, if some kid in the neighbourhood got some disease then all the kids were sent round to catch it. Now my parents would of been locked up for child abuse.
Never before have healthy people been quarantined on a global scale Never before have we been isolated away from each other, mandated to wear bacteria traps across our airways, constantly told to put chemicals our hands, manipulated into a chronic state of fear and stress, which lowers the immune system, all in the name of “public health and safety.” The so-called medical experts authorising this and governments mandating this, know damn well this is going to have a detrimental effect on populations. The know all right, how it will weaken the majority. It’s all by design. How the hell could they keep up the pretence of an on-going virus and constant jabbing of nefarious potions if the public were strong in mind body and soul. Only those with eyes to see, to understand, to educate themselves and and who will try to impart that information to others, will really survive, and they are the biggest threat of all.
Insight 7: “We have not evolved to seek the truth”
you wouldn’t really look at Israel data and have the sense that vaccines work
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/israel/
highest cases ever
deaths heading that way
middle of summer
everyone is on third booster
but then of course no-one is dying anyway and never really was
https://euromomo.eu/graphs-and-maps/
I think we have a mild virus that some octogenarians are dying ‘with’ – vaccine or no vaccine when you’re that frail you are going to die of the next thing you get
“This year, New Zealand has already seen an unusually large outbreak of RSV (a respiratory virus affecting children), which doctors have attributed to an ‘immunity debt’ caused by lockdowns last winter. “
If only someone could have foreseen this.
Oh. We did.
I read somewhere recently (maybe here) that the next phase in the bio-terrorism takeover of the world will move from Coronavirus to RSV. Interestingly, RSV has the same issue with ADE as Coronaviruses – they experimented on children with a vaccine for RSV in the 60s and a good portion of them died and got severely ill with ADE.
Further info and links:
#3: THE UGLY HISTORY OF ATTEMPTS TO MAKE CORONAVIRUS VACCINES
https://www.deconstructingconventional.com/post/18-reason-i-won-t-be-getting-a-covid-vaccine
RSV and ADE also cited here:
Informed consent disclosure to vaccine trial subjects of risk of COVID-19 vaccines worsening clinical disease
https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1111/ijcp.13795
We also have a rise in RSV among children, according to Clare Craig’s twitter feed.
An extremely questionable mixed bag, based on immature science.
The possible immunological consequences are a quite common perception, and there has been a lot of prior debate about the role of ‘dirt avoidance’ in provoking an increase in allergies. So that’s nothing new in essence.
But other analyses are highly debatable, and the introduction starts off with a massive distortion :
“The outcome has been tragic—across the globe, millions have been sickened and hundreds of thousands have died.”
… which reinforcement of the central myth about the virulence of SARS-CoV-2 gives little faith in the substance as a whole.
“The American Food and Drug Administration provided full approval of the Pfizer coronavirus vaccine last week, but noted in its press release that “information is not yet available about potential long-term health outcomes.””
https://www.jpost.com/health-and-wellness/israeli-experts-analyze-if-mrna-covid-vaccines-be-dangerous-in-long-term-678171
Something to note about that is it only applies to pfizer ‘vaccine’ made after that date. It doesn’t apply to the existing stockpiles made under EUA. It also means that the EUA for the Moderna and Johnson and Johnson stuff also ends as there is a treatment available now. Yet no one seems to mention any of this…
Excellent point which so far no one else has made [the the moderna and J+J jabs]
Does this now give any people like the care home staff etc who don’t want to be jabbed an “out” if they are presented with the AZ/Moderna etc jab – that there is no EUA for it now pfizer is approved or does that approval only apply in US?
Only USA.
In the UK we have our own regulations for the administration of covid vaccines
https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/regulatory-approval-of-covid-19-vaccine-astrazeneca/conditions-of-authorisation-for-covid-19-vaccine-astrazeneca
I can find no reference in it to the authorisation being conditional on no other treatment being available.
Long, but excellent. Well worth your time.
“If we ‘follow the money’, we will see that the economic blockade deviously attributed to Virus has achieved far from negligible results, not only in terms of social engineering, but also of financial predation”
http://thephilosophicalsalon.com/a-self-fulfilling-prophecy-systemic-collapse-and-pandemic-simulation/
The destruction of immune systems in both young and old is part of the plan and isn’t an unwanted side effect of “well intentioned ” Covid-19 measures.
The other day I went to an eye appointment and I asked to wash my hands on arrival. The muzzleoid covidnazi on reception INSISTED I sanitized my hands BEFORE I was allowed to go and wash them. Madness
Oh, I’ve had plenty of that shit in hospitals.
MRI scan:
TOLD, TOLD mind, to sanitize my hands before handling a pen with which I was to sign the disclaimer. “No”
I was told I HAD to use the gunk, again bluntly refused.
Nurse nazi 1 then tells nurse nazi 2 to escort me to a gents convenience, clearly some way a way so that I could wash my hands. Then, realising how ridiculous he was becoming he said:
“forget it, we’ll sanitise the pen after you’ve signed.”
Comedy fuckin gold.
Our, wonderful, sainted NHS. Woefully overpaid for their so-called expertise.
The organisation is packed with bullies, muppets and wasters.
In the public loos in the local shopping centre, there is a hand sanitiser they would like you to use before going in, AND another one, after you’ve washed your hands with actual soap and water, on the way out!!! But there again, my mother in law hand sanitises after using our loo, which has running water, ample liquid soap, and clean towels! Its insulting, cultish and mad.
Sharpie pen: “magic cult member lotion” on every dispenser one encounters. Oh and “vaccine genocide” on the yellow stripe of every ‘Thank You’ rainbow.
I always explain that it is now known that fewer than 1 in 10,000 pick up Covid from touch. They are often amazed. I then point out that the Government knew it wasn’t transmitted by touch since May 2020, yet went on with the show and the slogan. I finish with : I wonder what else they have lied about? And leave them to that thought, urging them to check the study themselves.
Fight back at all opportunities.
Liberally sprinkled with facts lifted from polio infections and literally insane speculations: Eg, the idea that Sars-CoV2 somehow makes sick people feel healthy and extremely keen to socialize with others. That’s absolutely not what happens when sick with a flu-type illness. The common social symptom of that would be that people whine about their symptoms and would prefer to stay in bed.
In worse cases, it can go to the point where the body is weakened enough that doing anything but rest becomes virtually impossible.
When I had it and was at my worst I was physically incapable of getting out of bed, never mind leaving the house to socialise.
… as is the case with a severe ‘flu infection.
Exactly; got “Asian” flu 3 winters ago, and was exactly like Milo, to a “T”.
You do know when you get “proper” ‘flu. What did I take? Bed rest, Paracetamol, water by the gallon, chicken soup occasionally , let my bladder do the rest.
Spot on. I’m struggling with the 1984 now and I can honestly say the last thing I need at this time is company.
I just want to be on my own.
The MAIN evolutionary impact of lockdowns has been to accelerate the evolution of Homo Non Sapiens. I know, I know, it has been coming for years but the rate of change has been increased by an order of magnitude.
I’ve not changed much over the last 18 months apart from foreign travel (unfortunately). Everything else as normal. The good news is my ‘business cards’ arrived today. The bad news (for the globalists, their lackeys and collaborators) is that there’s a *real* hunger out there for an alternative narrative. The ‘hits’ on my website today have been huge… simply after handing out a few cards to willing (mask-free) pissed off employees and members of the public. Old school meets hi-tech. The truth will always succeed over the lies. FIGHT. BACK. BETTER. https://www.LCAHub.org/
No one in my entire circle of family or friends have reduced our exposure to anything at all over the last 18 months – not the sun, fresh air, each other, dirty surfaces etc. I am expecting to live in an age of generally deteriorating health amongst all of those gullible enough to fall for the propaganda. No neurodevelopment issues in my household, thanks.
My mother, an 86 year old retired nurse, said this on the day that the first lockdown was announced. She is entirely back to normal now; no masks, no ‘social distancing’, plenty of lunches out. She has always thought the whole thing was ridiculous and, apart from being vaccinated, for which the benefits outweighed the risks at her age, her only behaviour change has been to sit outside at least once a day for Vitamin D.
She should also take D supplements at at least 2,000iu daily. As we age, the ability of our skin and our guts to absorb D lessens. And unless she sits bare legged and bare armed in the sun at midday, without burning of course, she probably isn’t getting enough skin exposure anyway. And of course in Britain we can’t make D from the sun at all in the six winter months.
She sounds a very sensible woman.
Apart from the physical effect of it all, the other problem is the false education being presented by so-called experts. Some of it is motivated mainly by the “something must be done” attitude, some of it by commercial opportunism. There’s no doubt about that, unfortunately, but it exacerbates the loss of trust by the more intelligent people.