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If Covid Vaccines Saved 20 Million Lives, Why Did so Few Unvaccinated Die in Winter 2021?

by Nick Rendell
12 June 2024 7:00 PM

Despite the ‘pandemic response’ being a non-issue in the General Election (all parties were compliant and consequently complicit in the single most disastrous policy ever followed by any Government) the issue of vaccine harms hasn’t entirely gone away. A paper published in the BMJ Public Health journal and covered in a front page piece by Sarah Knapton in the Telegraph gave the issue much needed credence. This was followed by David Davis MP repeating a call for a proper inquiry into excess deaths and a post from Carl Heneghan and Tom Jefferson, published on their Substack Trust the Evidence and reprinted in the Daily Sceptic.

Heneghan and Jefferson state:

Suddenly, it’s okay to question the vaccine narrative. The Lancet estimated that vaccinations prevented 19·8 million excess deaths. Mathematical modelling should not be used to justify the policy — the latest report shows the numbers don’t add up.

Of course, it isn’t only the Lancet that has relied on nonsensical mathematical modelling to justify widespread adoption of mRNA technology. Disappointingly, both Rod Liddle and Fraser Nelson in recent articles published in the Times and Telegraph respectively repeated the farcical claim that the AstraZeneca vaccine saved six million lives. Claims that 500,000 lives were saved by lockdown, that 20 million lives were saved by mRNA vaccines or six million were saved by AstraZeneca all rely on modelling. However, we have real-world data that paint a very different picture.

During part of the winter of 2021-22 the U.K. experienced its last period where Covid accounted for more than 10% of all-cause deaths. The rollout of the vaccines had been completed in the prior autumn, by which point most elderly and vulnerable people (who accounted for the vast majority of Covid deaths) had been vaccinated at least three and in many cases four times.

If Covid vaccines really prevented 20 million deaths and the AstraZeneca vaccine really saved six million lives, then you would assume that during the 2021-22 mini ‘Covid spike’, deaths of the ‘never-vaccinated’ would have increased faster than deaths of the vaccinated.

The fact that this didn’t happen confirms that vaccines didn’t work. Figure 1, in one simple chart, using official U.K. Government data, demonstrates that while Covid deaths spiked in January 2022, all-cause deaths of the ‘never-vaccinated’, rather than increasing, modestly declined (green line). In fact the reduction of all-cause deaths in the never-vaccinated was somewhat more pronounced than that of the vaccinated (red line)!

Figure 1

The data for this chart come from two Government bodies: the ONS report of monthly deaths by vaccine status running from April 1st 2021 to the end of May 2023; and the Office for Health Improvements and Disparities (OHID) showing weekly deaths, spliced and diced in multiple ways, from October 2021 to July 2022.

It’s worth noting that the OHID abandoned its excellent monthly report in December 2023 following its controversial decision to adopt the ONS’s radical change to the ‘expected deaths’ calculation. Prior to this the OHID was showing excess deaths from heart failure, diabetes and cirrhosis running well ahead of the ‘expected’ levels. Yet another change that created distrust in the authorities.

Remarkably, the chart confirms that over the winter months, December to February:

  • ‘Covid deaths’ (plotted against the left-hand axis) increased by 74% from 3,145 in December 2021 to 5,460 in January 2022, before dropping back by 25% to 4,088 in February.
  • Amongst the ‘never-vaccinated’, all-cause deaths decreased by 7% from December 2021’s total of 3,858 to 3,606 in January 2022, before declining again in February 2022 by a further 30% to 2,533.
  • Among the vaccinated, December’s total deaths of 46,951 decreased by 3% to 45,587 deaths in January, followed by a further 14% fall back to 39,063 in February.

How can this be? Between December 2021 and February 2022 deaths in the vaccinated fell by 17% while deaths in the never-vaccinated fell by 34%, twice the rate of decline of the vaccinated.

There can only be two explanations: either the proportion of vaccinated people increased, or vaccines didn’t work.

The Government’s coronavirus dashboard confirms that hardly any never-vaccinated people decided, late in 2021 or in early 2022 to get themselves vaccinated. Anecdotally, I’ve met many people who regret getting vaccinated, but I’ve never met anyone who regretted not getting vaccinated, and I’ve never come across anyone who, having held out against vaccination throughout 2021, decided late in 2021 or early 2022 to opt onto that particular merry-go-round. Certainly, the number of the never-vaccinated didn’t materially change during this period. Which means the only logical conclusion is that vaccines didn’t work.

Figure 2

If we look at the all-cause deaths of the never-vaccinated as a percentage of all deaths, shown in Figure 3, two things are apparent. Firstly, the lines for each age cohort fall consistently; there are no upticks. Surely, if a deadly virus was on the loose that only multiple vaccinations could save you from, you might expect to see deaths amongst the never-vaccinated demonstrate some volatility, especially during times when Covid deaths surged. Secondly, we see that the percentage of all-cause deaths amongst the never-vaccinated is about the same as or lower than the overall proportion of people within each age cohort (which I’ve indicated in red in Figure 2). In other words, the never-vaccinated are not over-represented in deaths, as you would expect if the vaccines were saving lots of lives among the vaccinated.

Figure 3

These ‘real-world’ data illustrate another feature of the ‘pandemic’: over-reporting or over-diagnosis of Covid deaths. Figure 4, lifted straight from the OHID website, shows that in week ending 22nd January 2021 (the bolder coloured column) there were 17,568 registered deaths, of which 8,013 were ‘Covid deaths’; that’s 46% of the total. The expected number of deaths for that week was 12,535, indicated by the dashed line. Surely this must mean that in the absence of Covid we would have seen just 9,555 deaths (17,568 all-cause minus 8,013 Covid), but that would be 2,980 (31%) fewer deaths than were expected.

Figure 4

Of course this is nonsense. If deaths that week excluding Covid deaths had been at the expected level, then it would suggest that 37% of the Covid deaths were an overstatement. Overestimates like this get fed into the mathematical models. They in turn lead to errors in ‘case fatality rates’ and very soon we have error compounding error and the whole calculation loses credibility.

It’s good news that the likes of David Davis, Carl Heneghan, Tom Jefferson and Andrew Bridgen are calling for an inquiry into the potential role of vaccines in recent excess deaths. But we shouldn’t overlook the data we have publicly available (I think uniquely in the world) showing outcomes for the ‘never-vaccinated’, our very own ‘control group’ which shows very clearly that their health outcomes were certainly no worse, and in all likelihood significantly better than the vaccinated.

Before Fraser Nelson, Rod Liddle and any other commentators are tempted to trot out the nonsense about millions of lives saved by vaccination they should ask the question: “So, where did we bury the disproportionate number of ‘never-vaccinated’ who must surely have died since 2021?” I’ve looked and I can’t find them.

Tags: Adverse eventsCOVID-19Excess DeathPropagandaVaccineVaccine efficacy

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    28 Comments
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    Heretic
    Heretic
    10 months ago

    Excellent article by Nick Rendell— vitally important, because the next “Plandemic” will be bird flu, which was added to ordinary flu vaccines in 2009, “accidentally” non-radiated, as doctors discussed with Alex Jones of Infowars 14 years ago.
    Please see the following two links, if you can access The Telegraph article from 2008. The 2009 Infowars interview has been reposted by Alex Jones now.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/poland/2235676/Homeless-people-die-after-bird-flu-vaccine-trial-in-Poland.html

    https://www.infowars.com/posts/avian-influenza-added-to-flu-vaccine-in-2009/

    Last edited 10 months ago by Heretic
    67
    0
    Heretic
    Heretic
    10 months ago
    Reply to  Heretic

    Listening just now to the audio taped 2009 Infowars interview, they also said NATO went to Thailand and forcibly injected pregnant Thai women three times with tetanus jabs (when only one is needed), and their babies died. They also described eight US troops being vaccinated experimentally together and dying, and that more troops were dying from inoculations than from gunfire.

    Tetanus jabs (to which they said live viruses have been added) are often given after dog bites. Is that why the government has done so little to protect the public, not even requiring dogs to be muzzled in public spaces? And Michael Gove requiring all tenants to be allowed to keep dogs, and forbidding landlords from preventing it?

    Last edited 10 months ago by Heretic
    34
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    Heretic
    Heretic
    10 months ago
    Reply to  Heretic

    “When you inject live viruses into the bloodstream [instead of muscle tissue], you bypass the critical part of the immune system. And vaccines, in fact, cause all auto-immune diseases, non-traumatic seizures, cancer and genetic problems.”

    49
    -1
    Heretic
    Heretic
    10 months ago
    Reply to  Heretic

    (Sorry not NATO, of course, but the UN, the audiotape said. Too late to edit. I was trying to type and listen at the same time, but I’m not very good at multi-tasking.)

    27
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    sskinner
    sskinner
    10 months ago
    Reply to  Heretic

    Please listen to this Danish Professor talking about live virus vaccines and mRNA injections. She argues that the study showed that live virus vaccines reduced mortality for not only the target disease but for other pathogens. But she could also see some vaccines were worse and caused mortality. Unfortunately the modern Pharmaceutical industry has poisoned the ‘well’ with their blatant attempts to make ‘vaccines’ mandatory for the entire planet.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=o_nKoybyMGg
    Danish professor: mRNA vaccine study sends ‘danger signals’

    Last edited 10 months ago by sskinner
    22
    -1
    Heretic
    Heretic
    10 months ago
    Reply to  sskinner

    Thanks for that link, which I’ll check out later.

    Just now at the end of the Infowars 2009 audio taped interview, was this shocker:

    “Putting the bird flu virus in with the regular flu is actually what’s going to make the mutation happen to create the hybrid, that’s going to allow the bird flu to infect the human. And this is self-evident… in my book, entitled “The Biology of Aggression”, and that’s all about the Rabies virus.

    “They are now also putting Rabies virus into many human vaccines. There are many movies out now that actually illustrate this. “Quarantine” is the best, because in “Quarantine” they actually admit that the Rabies virus is what’s making these people become ghouls. This is going to get even worse, folks, and this is being done intentionally.”

    Last edited 10 months ago by Heretic
    26
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    Heretic
    Heretic
    10 months ago
    Reply to  Heretic

    At the end of the 2009 audio taped interview, they said that RABIES Virus was also being put into human vaccines.

    Last edited 10 months ago by Heretic
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    Ron Smith
    Ron Smith
    10 months ago
    Reply to  Heretic

    From what I remember there is no treatment for Rabies. I think it was the documentary series ;Monsters Inside Me where they told the tragic story of a child getting Rabies then going into a coma.

    15
    0
    Heretic
    Heretic
    10 months ago
    Reply to  Ron Smith

    Yes, you are right, though when I looked it up on the NHS England website just now, they said this:

    ” Although there is no cure for rabies once symptoms develop, post-exposure treatment (i.e. rabies vaccine with or without rabies immunoglobulin) is highly effective in preventing disease if given correctly and promptly after exposure.”

    Personally, I don’t believe viruses exist, but are just manifestations of a toxin, bacterial or fungal infection; however, I’m not a medic, so what do I know?

    8
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    huxleypiggles
    huxleypiggles
    10 months ago

    Two very obvious points that must be borne in mind:

    Fraser Nelson likes to keep a foot in both camps but always errs toward the establishment.

    Rod Liddle is very good at engaging gob before brain.

    58
    -2
    Ron Smith
    Ron Smith
    10 months ago
    Reply to  huxleypiggles

    I remember in 2020 when he criticised people resisting the mask mandates saying….Is this really the hill you want to die on. As if you can comply your way out of tyranny.

    53
    -1
    huxleypiggles
    huxleypiggles
    10 months ago
    Reply to  Ron Smith

    Exactly 👍

    24
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    Solentviews
    Solentviews
    10 months ago

    The hard evidence is rolling in thick and fast now. Woefully under educated Ministers and Civil Servants got taken for a ride by Big Pharma, aided and abetted by Gates of Hell during his visits to No.10 in 2020. The timing of Event 201 was also ‘quite remarkable’.

    Our Govt spent £450 billion on removing human rights, promoting mRNA therapies and virtue signalling. The proper course of action was to do absolutely nothing, except encourage everyone to boost their natural immune systems as best they could. No profit in that of course. (Any yes, I was saying this in Mar 2020 as my long suffering family can testify).

    141
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    huxleypiggles
    huxleypiggles
    10 months ago
    Reply to  Solentviews

    “Woefully under educated Ministers and Civil Servants got taken for a ride by Big Pharma”

    No way. I will never accept this because it provides the perps with the “not me guv” excuse. It falls in to cock-up theory and the C1984 was definitely no cock-up.

    In fact there are no excuses for even the most stupid MP’s of the time. Those in the decision-making brigade knew exactly what they were up to and the backbenchers owed it to themselves and their constituents to educate themselves about what was really going on. They did not do that.

    By May 2020 I had worked out we were being scammed and so had thousands of others across the country. I joined Lockdown Sceptics in September 2020 and it was a few months up and running by then and The Conservative Woman was about 5 / 6 years old by that time. The Scamdemic information was out there very early. Nobody within cycling distance of Westminster has any right to claim ignorance.

    The proper course of action was for MP’s to do the bloody job we pay them for – find the truth. They failed. Once they had found the information, information that I had secured by May 2020 lets not forget, MP’s were duty bound to bring the government down.

    They failed to a point of treason.

    There are no excuses.

    Never Forget. Never Forgive.

    159
    -4
    Solentviews
    Solentviews
    10 months ago
    Reply to  huxleypiggles

    I don’t disagree with your conclusions at all.

    FWIW, I think the Scientific Advisors (Witless, Unbalanced etc) bear more responsibility than anyone, although the Johnson and Hancock were utterly appalling.

    Also 3 cheers for LDS and TCW!

    78
    -5
    Heretic
    Heretic
    10 months ago
    Reply to  Solentviews

    Three Cheers for Lockdown Sceptics, Yes!

    But NOT for TCW The Maryolater Woman Hypocrite who boasts about “Defending Freedom”, while denying Freedom of Speech to anyone daring to criticise Maryolatry on her “Defending Freedom” website, banning and blocking them like a Jesuit.

    She also appears to be using Toby Young’s website to continually draw attention to her own, attempting to control and dominate the comments section of every article on Toby’s website, instead of sticking to her own.

    In contrast, it is TOBY YOUNG’S FREE SPEECH UNION and THE DAILY SCEPTIC that are genuinely, steadfastly and courageously “Defending Freedom”.

    Last edited 10 months ago by Heretic
    16
    -9
    Ron Smith
    Ron Smith
    10 months ago
    Reply to  Solentviews

    As mentioned above, in the election campaigns Lockdowns, jabs etc were a minor blip. It was Brexit and Truss wot done it FFS.

    15
    -2
    transmissionofflame
    transmissionofflame
    10 months ago

    The article repeatedly mentions something called “covid deaths”. I am aware of “official” figures that were based on people who died within a certain period of a “positive Covid test”. I presume that is the meaning of “covid death” intended in this article. I can’t take that seriously – it’s a meaningless figure. All-cause mortality is the only game in town.

    95
    0
    huxleypiggles
    huxleypiggles
    10 months ago
    Reply to  transmissionofflame

    I agree tof.

    “Covid deaths” is meaningless because in some jurisdictions all deaths were recorded as covid. And even if tests were conducted they were done using the discredited PCR which was never intended to be used as a diagnostic tool.

    It’s a bit like testing waste water by drinking it – guaranteed to get a result.

    “Covid deaths” are a complete nonsense.

    54
    0
    transmissionofflame
    transmissionofflame
    10 months ago
    Reply to  huxleypiggles

    Number of “Covid deaths” where “Covid” was the only cause of death recorded was a small fraction of the headline number

    32
    0
    Ron Smith
    Ron Smith
    10 months ago
    Reply to  huxleypiggles

    Also the shoving of a thin stick up people’s noses, in some cases has caused harm.

    11
    0
    DS99
    DS99
    10 months ago
    Reply to  transmissionofflame

    When my mother died, the GP had hardly visited so he put “suspected stroke” on her death certificate – I suspect many death certificates are best guesses. All-cause mortality is indeed the only game in town.

    31
    0
    transmissionofflame
    transmissionofflame
    10 months ago
    Reply to  DS99

    Indeed. I think the rules for death certs were changed for “covid” but even then I think the “official” stats for “covid-only” deaths were negligible.

    20
    0
    LionelMan
    LionelMan
    10 months ago

    “During part of the winter of 2021-22 the U.K. experienced its last period where Covid accounted for more than 10% of all-cause deaths. ”

    Well well. If they count like they were told to in the worldwide ruse by the CDC (Cull for Disease Control) in America only 6% of that 10% were Bioweapon Only deaths. But since we now have millions of deaths by Bioweapon Cure, they have mixed things up good. According to plan.

    Last edited 10 months ago by LionelMan
    29
    -1
    Richard Austin
    Richard Austin
    10 months ago

    The most blindingly obvious factor for me is that the first Death Jab, in the UK, was released on 2nd December 2020 almost a year since the Scam began. So why weren’t people dying in their millions between January and December? Why were the bodies not piled in the streets?
    It certainly wasn’t masks because they were deemed not necessary until Whitless and Bankballance did a screeching u-turn after Incarceration I. It wasn’t anti-social, society destroying distancing either.
    It always did scream lie from day one with Chinese people doing cringeworthy pratfalls. My favourite was the Dead Person Falls on Floor and Puts Hands Out To Prevent Bashing Face sketch.

    68
    0
    Iain McCausland
    Iain McCausland
    10 months ago

    https://www.vaxcontrolgroup.com/

    13
    0
    LionelMan
    LionelMan
    10 months ago
    Reply to  Iain McCausland

    My research shows that the biggest control group, and they must continue to say NO to bioweapon cures, is Africa – the Billion strong smoking gun.

    https://worldyturnings.com/2022/12/20/is-africa-the-covid-smoking-gun-part-2/

    Last edited 10 months ago by LionelMan
    5
    0
    Myra
    Myra
    10 months ago

    And we should not loose sight of any other reported side-effects.

    22
    0

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