Last year, Chris Packham hosted a five-part series on the BBC called Earth, which compared a mass extinction event 252 million years ago to the small rise in atmospheric carbon dioxide seen in the last 150 years. He said he hoped the “terror factor” generated by his programme would “spur us to do something about the environment crisis”. But as we shall see, the only terror factor is having to sit through an hour-long film consisting of cherry-picked science data and unproven assertions in the hope of persuading us that the increase in global temperatures in the last 150 years or so is comparable to the rise in temperatures over a considerable swath of geological time. Great play was made of a 12°C rise in average global temperatures 252 million years ago as CO2 levels started to rise, although Packham fails to report that CO2 levels were already at least four times higher back then than in modern times. The ‘science’ that Packham cloaks himself with on every occasion is hardly served by terrorising the viewer with what is little more than a highly personal political message.
Think of all that suffering and wastage, he says about the fourth great mass extinction. I don’t think we want a comparable extinction to the one that happened 252 million years ago on our conscience, he adds. Of course, Packham is not the first person to politicise the end-Permian extinction when most plant and animal life disappeared to be replaced eventually with what became known as the age of the dinosaurs. As we can see from the graph below, even though that extinction event coincided with an uptick in CO2 levels, the general trend over a 600-million-year period was downwards ending in the near denudation currently experienced today. But scientists note that the rise started some time before the extinction event, with most of the Permian characterised by very low levels of CO2.
It is obvious why the three other great extinctions are of little interest to modern day climate alarmists. The Ordovician extinction 445 million years ago occurred when CO2 levels were 12 times higher than today, the Devonian wipe-out happen 372 millions ago when CO2 levels were falling, while the later Triassic/Jurassic event 201 million years ago occurred at a time of stable CO2. Hard to see a pattern there suggesting rising CO2 levels equals a mass extinction event. The disappearance of the dinosaurs 66 million years ago is generally attributed to the impact of a giant meteorite, while the current sixth mass extinction exists only inside the head of the Swedish doom goblin, and need not detain us at this point.
Since Packham was essentially making a BBC political film promoting Net Zero, he inevitably started with the fixed view that all our current environmental problems are the fault of CO2. An intense period of volcanic eruptions that led to huge coal deposits catching fire increased CO2 levels and almost instantly sent temperatures soaring at the end of the Permian period. About 20 million years of rain subsequently followed, he observed, taking some of the CO2 out of the atmosphere and order it seems was restored. Certainly, CO2 resumed a small descent but levels remained almost as high, or for some periods higher, as those at the end of the Permian period for another 120 million years. Packham does not provide an explanation of what happened to the average global temperature at this time.
The graph above shows why he avoided the subject. Temperatures did rise at the end of the Permian period after a long decline, but only as far as previous highs recorded 200 million years earlier. They then stayed at those levels for most of the next 200 million years, throughout the age of the dinosaurs. Helped by the increased levels of CO2, this is considered one of the most verdant periods in Earth’s history.
Is it likely that volcanic eruptions triggered the substantial rise in temperature around 252 million years ago, as Packham claims? In a paper published in 2022, a group of European scientists said their data showed seawater temperature began to rise at least 300,000 years before the main volcanic eruptions. “Gradual warming by approximately 12°C was probably responsible for initial environmental degradation that eventually culminated in the global and Permian extinction,” they wrote. The scientists reviewed much of the published evidence and concluded “a temporal link between volcanic activity, environmental changes and biological impacts remains controversial”.
Carbon dioxide, of course, is the main cause of global warming in Packham’s world. Promoting his film to like-minded activists at the Guardian, he said it was the “urgency that makes me despair”. As we can see, this “despair” is the result of comparing events hundreds of millions of years ago with a small temperature rise in the past 150 years or so of around 1°C – and this after a short-term period of global cooling. You can of course argue about all this, but it is a bit rich to claim the science of recent global warming is ‘settled’ and refuse to debate anyone who disagrees with you.
From such a shaky base, Packham claims we’re all becoming far too complacent about pumping CO2 into the atmosphere. “It’s an experiment we have been running for over 100 years,” he told the Guardian. “The more the CO2, the more the heat is locked in and the hotter our Earth becomes.” But if Packham really believes that, how does he explain those geological periods when temperatures fall as CO2 levels rise? And if a rise in temperatures and mass extinction is inevitable when CO2 rises, how does that work in the current period when CO2 levels are as low as they’ve ever been?
Could it be that the end-Permian extinction was actually caused by CO2 starvation? During the Permian, it was the first time in Earth’s history that CO2 concentrations fell below 1,000 parts per million, perhaps as dangerously low as 200 ppm at some points. This may well have started to stress plant life since 1,000 ppm is a concentration that supports maximum photosynthesis productivity. This is the view of Jim Steele, Director Emeritus of San Francisco State University’s Sierra Nevada Field Campus. In a recent paper, he noted that many researchers have pointed to competition between different plant species for declining CO2 during the Permian period. This was said to result in “severely reduced photosynthesis, the collapse of primary productivity and a significant malfunction of the global food webs”.
The truth is that the scientific jury is still out and the ‘science’, as with most climate science, is unsettled. Perhaps inadvertently, Packham has simply drawn attention to all the observational evidence that suggests CO2, the gas of life, ‘saturates’ at around 300-400 ppm, and its warming effect is greatly diminished beyond that concentration. But “fear is motivating” he claims, and in the BBC he seems to have a compliant megaphone for whatever green propaganda he cares to promote.
Chris Morrison is the Daily Sceptic’s Environment Editor.
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Have scientists found any fossilised 250 million year old SUVs?
They will, it takes time. All the SUVs were specially processed and scrapped by a government approved company and they were put into landfill in one secure location to protect future generations. It didn’t work, obviously. We should learn from their mistakes, they did it too late. Otherwise they would have been able to tell us where they are. That’s why we don’t know where they are.
I’m waiting for the “Scientists” to declare that it wasn’t a meteor strike which led to the dinosaurs’ extinction ….. but all the farting the big herbivores did which raised the level of methane in the atmosphere.
Don’t give the dishonest barstewards ideas.
Hadn’t it been for all the sunlight reflected by greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, the nearly blinded meteor would never have accidentally ventured off the road!
I’ve seen that documentary that Woody Allen created – The Sleeper. As long as they’re VW SUVs they’ll still be perfectly serviceable and start at first turn of the key (except the electric ones, obvs).
Has anyone ever asked him how, assuming he’s right about the science, he thinks we should deal with the non-Western countries (e.g. China, India and Russia) that are the source of over 75% of CO2 emissions and are continuing to invest massively in fossil fuels?
To quote Kenny Everett ‘Let’s bomb Russia!’.
Maybe not one of his most clever ideas.
Would you pay any attention to a man holding a placard in Oxford St and shouting “the end is nigh, repent of your sins” …… apart from laughing at him, that is?
Packham (and the BBC) are best laughed at ….. and otherwise, ignored.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7621355/Unsettling-moment-terrified-mother-31-confronts-masked-mob-animal-rights-activists.html
Packham associates with criminals
‘In 2019 a masked mob of five animal rights activists chose to terrorise a young mother in front of her two children at her rural home in Wales. The five men were led by renowned convicted thug, Paul Allman.
The woman, who had never been on a hunt in her life, was left ‘shaken with anger’ to return home and find five men blocking entry to her Trefnant, north Wales property. When the ‘intimidated’ mother demanded the mob remove their masks, they yelled at her to ‘f*** off’.
One commentator at the time of the incident remarked: “I can’t begin to imagine how frightening this experience must have been for the woman, her husband and of course, her young children. These cowards hide behind balaclavas to frighten and intimidate members of the public. They are bullies and couldn’t care less about animals.”
Given the masks and blacked out clothing that these saboteur thugs wear, it is difficult to be entirely confident on their true identities. However what is striking is just how similar the man on Packham’s right in the photo resembles the violent criminal, Paul Allman…
As the saying goes, ‘people surround themselves with people who embody the qualities they follow’.
https://www.c4pmc.co.uk/post/packham-the-poodle-and-the-criminal-saboteurs
Nasty. ———This is aways the case with ideologically motivated people, whether they are Palestinian Supporters, Climate Activists, Trump Haters, Animal Rights Supporters, etc etc .They all are cut from the same Liberal Progressive cloth and will all get along nicely in a social club where they can arrange to attend each others protest and exchange mobile numbers.
The Cherry Pickers should have their own Social Club. They should go on bicycle runs together and stay over off grid for weekends away together, where they can eat nothing but “Sustainable” turnips washed down with a pint of steam heated to boiling by a solar panel.
On GB News they regularly have on climate activists who should be members of this club to discuss issues related to climate and energy like eg Jim Dale. Yesterday when he was on with Beverley Turner and Andrew Pierce he dismissed the rising energy costs because of Net Zero policies and said what needs to happen is that houses should be insulated so we did not need as much energy. This is a bit like saying we should not fix potholes and instead just get a stronger more powerful bicycle.
So Packman, Dale and all of these braindead eco socialists have a particular world view that has come straight from IPCC pronouncements, and they have decided many years ago that everything these people say is all some kind of ultimate truth, when infact it is all just an assortment of little scenario’s from climate models, none of which has been remotely near to what has happened in the real world.
Packham’s claim about extinctions is just another one of those “little scenario’s, and his silly claims that this is all based on science is just the usual attempt to give an air of authority to their nonsense.
The trouble with these people and their misinformation which they think is the “truth” is that it can often appear to be factual and logical. It can all sound plausible. But what these people do is use selective bits of data, and carefully omit other bits that would be essential for a full understanding of the issue. They will only discuss negative aspects of an issue and ignore the positive. They will use worst case scenarios from models as if they were facts. So when Packham talks about extinctions caused by our emissions of CO2 he has put together a whole raft of assumptions, speculations and guesses from modelling and classed that as some kind of scientific truth that no one should be able to question. ——As it says in the article this is NOT science. It is propaganda.
You would hope that people’s memory about Covid hadn’t yet faded. Create a sense of panic and then push the public into an unwise course of action(s).
Psychologists know that people are physically incapable of thinking rationally when they are under stress (or panicking). This is the state of mind the green blob wishes to sustain. If they keep repeating the ‘doom messaging’ they calculate many will ignore their misgivings and start to accept infringements on their liberties.
Forewarned is Forearmed!
Please can we have a TV show to remove these propagandists to a remote island for 6mths in winter to actually live the life that they desire which will apparently ‘save’ the rest of us from climate apocalypse.
It could be filmed from overhead drones.
I would willingly crowd fund to take CP, Greta, JD, both Millipedes etc out of our faces for this long.
I am hoping Greta (who seems to have autism) will one day be a campaigner against climate propaganda, much like those who have escaped a cult.
Anyone who still pays the license fee is complicit in accepting and promoting propaganda, if you don’t believe in net zero, Lockdowns etc stop paying the license fee, if enough people do the BBC will go out of business which will be a great service to our children who are being brainwashed and terrorised by this organisation.
Deleted.
Sadly Hester because the BBC is the government’s principal propoganda unit if revenues from the public fall too far the government will step in and make up the shortfall using…
….taxpayers money.
Very true, I heard The Media Show BBC4. What a load of propaganda, they are doing everything they accuse others of. When China censors that is bad, but when the West does it, it is just fighting disinformation FFS! They even mentioned Russian collusion that was debunked. They have no self awareness.
Useful idiot with the emphasis on idiot. He’s following “The Science” which we know is completely unscientific.
I don’t think I’ve ever been to that part of the Peak District it looks particularly impressive does anyone know where it is? I might visit at the weekend.
Surely you’re not going to drive there?
I wish we could…
The ice caps will have melted by the weekend so was planning on canoeing there.
Did it already occur to someone that the CO₂ concentration in the atmosphere close to the largest active volcano on earth is perhaps not that representative for other parts of this planet? I mean, volcanos emits huge amounts of CO₂. Surely, that must end up going somewhere.
Packham is on a Malthusian guilt-trip. The BBC needs to give up their pretence of impartiality
Packham is a twerp on the same level as Lineker et al. I remember his quote of a couple of years ago that he preferred animals than humans…
The bbc expertise lies in brainwashing the public. A friend last night told me how badly america was divided. I asked how he knew this. He has never lived in the USA, doesn’t know any Americans accept me, but ahhhh he watches the government brainwashing tool the bbc and other msm for,his daily dose of lies. Wake up people, please wake up. Does anyone else notice the full on reporting of the college campus protests in the USA. I wish the msm would have provided this much time and effort to the invasion of Gaza by Israel and the continuing genoicide and inhumane treatment of Palestinians. Nope folks, instead you will be given your daily dose of BS via msm, including bbc. Open society paid agitators on college campuses. Do you really think the kiddies at universities are interested in stepping away from their computer gaming to go and “riot”. You definitely have the wrong country.