Last year, Chris Packham hosted a five-part series on the BBC called Earth, which compared a mass extinction event 252 million years ago to the small rise in atmospheric carbon dioxide seen in the last 150 years. He said he hoped the “terror factor” generated by his programme would “spur us to do something about the environment crisis”. But as we shall see, the only terror factor is having to sit through an hour-long film consisting of cherry-picked science data and unproven assertions in the hope of persuading us that the increase in global temperatures in the last 150 years or so is comparable to the rise in temperatures over a considerable swath of geological time. Great play was made of a 12°C rise in average global temperatures 252 million years ago as CO2 levels started to rise, although Packham fails to report that CO2 levels were already at least four times higher back then than in modern times. The ‘science’ that Packham cloaks himself with on every occasion is hardly served by terrorising the viewer with what is little more than a highly personal political message.
Think of all that suffering and wastage, he says about the fourth great mass extinction. I don’t think we want a comparable extinction to the one that happened 252 million years ago on our conscience, he adds. Of course, Packham is not the first person to politicise the end-Permian extinction when most plant and animal life disappeared to be replaced eventually with what became known as the age of the dinosaurs. As we can see from the graph below, even though that extinction event coincided with an uptick in CO2 levels, the general trend over a 600-million-year period was downwards ending in the near denudation currently experienced today. But scientists note that the rise started some time before the extinction event, with most of the Permian characterised by very low levels of CO2.
It is obvious why the three other great extinctions are of little interest to modern day climate alarmists. The Ordovician extinction 445 million years ago occurred when CO2 levels were 12 times higher than today, the Devonian wipe-out happen 372 millions ago when CO2 levels were falling, while the later Triassic/Jurassic event 201 million years ago occurred at a time of stable CO2. Hard to see a pattern there suggesting rising CO2 levels equals a mass extinction event. The disappearance of the dinosaurs 66 million years ago is generally attributed to the impact of a giant meteorite, while the current sixth mass extinction exists only inside the head of the Swedish doom goblin, and need not detain us at this point.
Since Packham was essentially making a BBC political film promoting Net Zero, he inevitably started with the fixed view that all our current environmental problems are the fault of CO2. An intense period of volcanic eruptions that led to huge coal deposits catching fire increased CO2 levels and almost instantly sent temperatures soaring at the end of the Permian period. About 20 million years of rain subsequently followed, he observed, taking some of the CO2 out of the atmosphere and order it seems was restored. Certainly, CO2 resumed a small descent but levels remained almost as high, or for some periods higher, as those at the end of the Permian period for another 120 million years. Packham does not provide an explanation of what happened to the average global temperature at this time.
The graph above shows why he avoided the subject. Temperatures did rise at the end of the Permian period after a long decline, but only as far as previous highs recorded 200 million years earlier. They then stayed at those levels for most of the next 200 million years, throughout the age of the dinosaurs. Helped by the increased levels of CO2, this is considered one of the most verdant periods in Earth’s history.
Is it likely that volcanic eruptions triggered the substantial rise in temperature around 252 million years ago, as Packham claims? In a paper published in 2022, a group of European scientists said their data showed seawater temperature began to rise at least 300,000 years before the main volcanic eruptions. “Gradual warming by approximately 12°C was probably responsible for initial environmental degradation that eventually culminated in the global and Permian extinction,” they wrote. The scientists reviewed much of the published evidence and concluded “a temporal link between volcanic activity, environmental changes and biological impacts remains controversial”.
Carbon dioxide, of course, is the main cause of global warming in Packham’s world. Promoting his film to like-minded activists at the Guardian, he said it was the “urgency that makes me despair”. As we can see, this “despair” is the result of comparing events hundreds of millions of years ago with a small temperature rise in the past 150 years or so of around 1°C – and this after a short-term period of global cooling. You can of course argue about all this, but it is a bit rich to claim the science of recent global warming is ‘settled’ and refuse to debate anyone who disagrees with you.
From such a shaky base, Packham claims we’re all becoming far too complacent about pumping CO2 into the atmosphere. “It’s an experiment we have been running for over 100 years,” he told the Guardian. “The more the CO2, the more the heat is locked in and the hotter our Earth becomes.” But if Packham really believes that, how does he explain those geological periods when temperatures fall as CO2 levels rise? And if a rise in temperatures and mass extinction is inevitable when CO2 rises, how does that work in the current period when CO2 levels are as low as they’ve ever been?
Could it be that the end-Permian extinction was actually caused by CO2 starvation? During the Permian, it was the first time in Earth’s history that CO2 concentrations fell below 1,000 parts per million, perhaps as dangerously low as 200 ppm at some points. This may well have started to stress plant life since 1,000 ppm is a concentration that supports maximum photosynthesis productivity. This is the view of Jim Steele, Director Emeritus of San Francisco State University’s Sierra Nevada Field Campus. In a recent paper, he noted that many researchers have pointed to competition between different plant species for declining CO2 during the Permian period. This was said to result in “severely reduced photosynthesis, the collapse of primary productivity and a significant malfunction of the global food webs”.
The truth is that the scientific jury is still out and the ‘science’, as with most climate science, is unsettled. Perhaps inadvertently, Packham has simply drawn attention to all the observational evidence that suggests CO2, the gas of life, ‘saturates’ at around 300-400 ppm, and its warming effect is greatly diminished beyond that concentration. But “fear is motivating” he claims, and in the BBC he seems to have a compliant megaphone for whatever green propaganda he cares to promote.
Chris Morrison is the Daily Sceptic’s Environment Editor.
To join in with the discussion please make a donation to The Daily Sceptic.
Profanity and abuse will be removed and may lead to a permanent ban.
Focused protection from what?
Stupidity?
Or we could go back to the way life worked before all this stupidity started and those who are worried about catching anything (not just Covid) stay clear of everyone else. There must have been thousands of people pre-Covid who had compromised immune systems and had a geniune fear of death (I was once on a white-cell donor panel to help infected people who had lost their own ability to fight even the mildest of infections after cancer treatment so fully understand).
The most sensible measure would be for the government to stop scaring people about something that is of little risk to most normally healthy people.
Apparently not, I mean Klaus Schwab stated that we “cannot” go back to the way we were. In fact, I’ve heard many people – right from the start of this fake pandemic – state the same thing. It was very weird to me. Almost as if people were reading from a predetermined script.
Why wouldn’t we be able to “go back to normal” following a bad ‘flu?
In many places of eastern Europe a “schwab” is a colloquial name for a cockroach.
Good to know there is some kind of karmic justice in place.
THAT’s what he reminds me of. Thank you.
How appropriate.
Perhaps that what they really mean by “long Covid”.
Exactly, Norman. Well put.
Like many others, I am genuinely vulnerable to Covid, but I’m not ga-ga or infantile, and am quite capable of managing and accepting risk ,- or just buggering off to stew in my own juice if I can’t.
No.
When the green band / red band idea came about, I always respected Steve’s sentiment – it came from a good place – but I never had any faith in the idea itself. I didn’t like that it promoted a “them” and “us”.
My view hasn’t changed at all since.
I agree – it was a neat idea but wasn’t going to go anywhere unless enforced by the authorities (a bad idea). A few % of people might do it and everyone else would wonder what the green and red bands are about.
People should just make their own judgements. The real bedwetters should just stay at home
for those interested in data analytics…for those that hate any mention of the R value – please look away!
below is R value (from Zoe)
winter wave on left – everything inbetween is noise, changes to counting methods etc
silly high peak that goes off the charts is a change to counting methods on 1 day
lastest ‘wave’ is from the time R goes above and stays above 1 – several days after the pubs opened and the onset of the Indian scariant
looks like its coming down already – but data is a bit noisy – I missed a couple of days camping which doesn’t help and had to infill. in a few days we may see (I expect) a linear fall which can just be extrapolated in the same way I did for the winter wave – which got the timing of the peak spot on
here
I wrote Steve a stern e-mail comparing his wrist bands to yellow stars and he sent me a very nice reply explaining his thoughts. I wanted to reply, but as my rage never really calmed down, did not.
I understand he wanted to do something good, but I still think it is not a good idea.
For practical reasons as well, I think a wrist band is useless, What if people wear long sleeves? It would take a huge media campaign to make people aware of this scheme and explain what it does.
the bulk of the population wouldn’t be able to make the distinction between what the different colours represented (I watch people struggling to remember what the “rules” for various things are) and I think that the ‘system’ he has devised plays into the hands of the tyranny – it sets up a medical apartheid and it is a justification for continuing restrictions – for severe flu?
The Fear Factor worked too well on some who should stay in their bunkers. Life is full of risk, most of those terrified are still driving cars, in fact wearing muzzles in cars.
I often ask the ‘lock down and mask up’ crew when they are scrapping their cars – far more potent agents of harm
Yet another dolt who thinks the vax is the answer. Nope.
We already have a system: naps on = covi and/or militia scared; naps off = exempt, worked out how to be exempt, don’t give a toss; naps hanging from some appendage other than the face = scared/not scared. It’s pretty easy to see which camp people are in now.
Yes – I was thinking much the same thing. The willingness to wear a mask is a pretty good signal.
I think that there’s a difference between being sympathetic to the mentally ill and restructuring the world to accommodate their fantasies.
Well intentioned, but ultimately self- defeating.
Until people shuck off this incontinent fear, nothing essential changes. The disease is actually psychological distortion – induced hypochondria that has convinced masses of people that their fellow citizens are just carriers of infection.
How on earth did people manage all those centuries before armbands, masks, lockdowns and social distancing!
Also, by how much did the population grow by in that time?
Come on guys!
Two Royal Caribbean travelers test positive for covid. The entire ship was fully vaccinated!!
Had you until vaccine macht frei.
Nope. Its killed people. Where was their freedom?
“Indeed by continuing to do so one risks perpetuating fear unnecessarily.”
Like the last 14 months then.
What a great way to reinforce their de-humanisation brainwashing game.
Green band / Red band / Pink star / Yellow star
People who are vulnerable to covid19 such as very old, and/or very sick, immunocompromised, etc. are vulnerable to any kind of ordinary pathogen that causes stuffy nose for few days for vast majority of people. This includes even common cold viruses which can cause pneumonia which can cause death in very elderly and/or sick (IFR~10% in nursing homes and such link). Common respiratory viruses are one of the reasons expected (not excess) deaths are higher in winter. When you look at expected weekly deaths, it looks like a sine function with peak in winter and trough in summer. Imagine people having lockdown or any kind of measures, or awareness (including focused protection) before every winter in order to delay those additional (expected but not extra) deaths in winter for several months or a year or two? Insane. Well, that is what was done for covid19 and what is being proposed by more moderate interventionalists.
There is nothing unique about covid19. When you look at age distribution and health/comorbidities of official deaths from covid19, they are practically the same as all-cause mortality for every country. Isn’t it a remarkable coincidence that this is the case?! Even seasonal flu, which is dangerous mainly for >65 year old people, doesn’t follow all-cause mortality so well in age distribution for adults, and is a bit dangerous for small children.
As time passes by I’m thinking more and more that covid19 is not just like flu, but even less than that. Aside from following natural mortality in age and health distribution, given a lot of evidence it was in Europe in Q4 of 2019. causing no excess deaths, it is more like a common cold. Excess deaths in Europe in 2020-21 are due to unusual very low mortality in 2019, lockdowns and other measures, and mass panic.
A good description. The other matter to do with winter is that there seems to have been an ‘on paper’ transition from other things, such as flu, to C19. Whether that has been deliberately done, or by mistake, I’ll stick that on the wall,
Steve, whilst I appreciate the sentiments you’re wrong on the vaccines. More deaths and adverse reactions than all vaccines of past 30 years put together. We’ve had effective treatments for several months, Ivermectin and Fluvoxamine. Take Ivermectin as a preventative in right dose on a weekly basis and it’s 100% effective in preventing infection. That’s better and safer than any vaccine. It would also end the Covid19 circulating if WHO threw its weight behind it!
or vitamin D for those who prefer
If GBRB was a choice it is really only a concept for people who are frightened of the virus and/or covid anxiety syndrome, and would therefore likely wear a band. A significant proportion of people are likely to form a combination of sensible individuals, not particularly concerned about the virus/ dislike being identified in a way that
is divisive.
GBRB is a social engineering experiment for which, like lockdown and other NPIs there is no evidence to support its’ use.
It does not seem prudent or practical to attempt to ‘solve’ one (unproven) social engineering experiment (lockdown) by introducing another (unproven) social engineering experiment (gbrb).
It is a highly divisive strategy.
For GBRB to work it would have to be mandatory. How many more pseudoscience interventions such as GBRB are to be foisted on the public? NONE imho
Enough is enough!!
Simple solution wear a mask if you’re of a nervous disposition the rest of us will give you room but Masks must become a mater of personal chose No tutting from either the masked or unmasked it time just to get on with life simple as!!
Another vaccine disciple.