Last week, Jess Ralston, the Head of Energy at the Energy and Climate Intelligence Unit (ECIU), took to Twitter/X to criticise Robert Jenrick for suggesting that if Labour keep their promise to decarbonise the grid by 2030, then we will see power blackouts:
She suggested Jenrick’s fears were “scaremongering” and demanded some evidence. She’s right that assertions without evidence can be dismissed without evidence. So, time to look at the evidence.
Warnings of Blackouts
First, Robert Jenrick is hardly the first person to warn of blackouts. The boss of the National Grid warned in November 2022, that blackouts and power cuts could be imposed during a really cold winter. Last year the National Grid also warned that they “sometimes they need to reduce demand by planned outages to avoid major damage”.
If even the National Grid is warning of outages, then Jenrick’s comments can hardly be described as scaremongering.
Peak Supply from Fossil Fuels and Nuclear
Remember that Labour have promised to decarbonise the grid by 2030, so I thought it would be helpful to see how much we rely upon reliable sources of power like fossil fuels and nuclear power now. I downloaded the supply and demand figures from Gridwatch for December 2023 and January 2024 to determine the peak supply from fossil fuel sources and from nuclear power during that period. There were eight occasions when supply from these sources exceeded 32GW. The peak supply from fossil fuels and nuclear came during the evening of December 1st, 2023, at 32.3GW. At that time, we were getting <1.5GW from wind, nothing from solar, 2.8GW from biomass, 0.8GW from hydro and a net 5.8GW from interconnectors.
Since then, due to a fault on one of the nuclear power stations supply from nuclear has dropped from 4.8GW to 3.8GW.
Changes to Generating Capacity
Over the next few years, the supply from fossil fuel and nuclear sources is going to change dramatically. First, the Government has announced that it plans to phase out our remaining coal power stations by October 2024. Moreover, the Hartlepool and Heysham One nuclear power plants are scheduled to shut down in 2026. In addition, the remaining two Advanced Gas Cooled Reactors at Heysham Two and Torness and due to shut down in 2028. This will leave us with just 1.2GW of nuclear capacity until Hinkley C eventually comes online, now expected in 2031.
DUKES Table 5.11 gives a list of all power stations in the U.K. by type, including the year of installation. Gas-fired power stations are supposed to have a life of 25-30 years (sometimes up to 40 years). Assuming an asset life of 30 years for gas-fired units and the announcements about coal generation and the nuclear power plants, Figure 2 shows what the profile of fossil fuel and nuclear power plant capacity looks like out to 2035 and compares that to the peak power produced by these types of unit in December 2023.
Here we can see we may run into trouble as soon as late this year if there are any unplanned outages or maintenance issues with the power plants. Capacity in 2025 just falls short of peak requirement, with 2026 showing a capacity gap of 3.9GW. The gap then grows to 15.9GW in 2030, closes a bit in 2031 as Hinkley C comes online before expanding to over 17GW by 2035. This does not consider that as the penetration of EVs and heat pumps increases, peak demand is likely to rise, further exacerbating the gap.
It might be possible to extend the life of these power plants out to 40 years. This begs the question about whether we should be basing our energy security on aging gas-fired power plants that are on their last legs? Ignoring that issue for the moment, extending the lives has the impact of keeping us just above water out to 2027, but there is a 1.4GW gap from 2028 as the remaining AGR nuclear plants close. If the grid is supposed to be decarbonised by 2030, there is then a gaping chasm of over 31GW at that point, as seen in Figure 3.
So, what might fill the gaps? Well, the most obvious thing to do would be to keep the coal-fired plants running and nurse the gas-fired plants into a longer life. To be safe, we should be investing in more new gas-fired plants, but we have not installed a new CCGT plant since 2016.
During those peak times described above, the interconnectors were effectively maxed out already, so there is no chance they can come to the rescue.
The Net Zero zealots have ruled out fossil fuels, so let us look at renewables. We have 1.5GW of natural flow hydroelectric capacity and aside from a few single-digit MW installations, we have not installed any significant new capacity since 2008. Hydro is not coming to the rescue. We also have pumped hydro, designed for fast response, but much of this was already being used at the times of peak demand, so that is not going to bridge the gap either.
We have 3.9GW of bioenergy, most of it being burning trees at Drax. There is no chance of expanding that to meet a 31GW supply gap by 2030, and anyway, where would all the wood-chips come from?
Of course, if we carpeted more farmland with solar panels, it would make no difference at all. This is because the peaks occur when it is dark, so there is no solar power anyway.
That leaves wind. At the times when fossil fuels and nuclear were providing over 32GW, wind was producing 1-1.5GW. It is unrealistic to expect that we can double wind capacity by 2030, but even if we could, we might expect at most an extra 1.5GW of generation on calm cold evenings, or less than 5% of the gap. So even doubling wind capacity is not going to help.
They could retrofit carbon capture and storage (CCS) on to the existing gas-fired plants, but there are several issues with this. First, we do not have a single plant working with this technology today, so the chances of installing this on all the aging gas-fired plants by 2030 are negligible. Second, CCS reduces the efficiency of power plants, so even if they did manage to install CCS, the output would be ~20% lower than it is today, meaning we would still have a significant generation gap.
Conclusions
Robert Jenrick was right. The evidence shows if Labour gets in and pursues decarbonising the grid by 2030, then we are in for blackouts. But before he takes a victory lap, he should consider that his party’s plans call for decarbonisation of the grid by 2035. Under his Government’s plans we will still face blackouts by 2028 at the latest.
I do hope this is sufficient evidence to convince Jess Ralston that our generation capacity is in a parlous state and there is a very real risk we will face blackouts in the not-so-distant future. And while we are on the subject of needing evidence to support assertions, what is the evidence that the “I” in ECIU can justifiably stand for Intelligence?
The inspiration for the title of this article came from the eponymous song by, appropriately enough, The Damned. When thinking about alleged policy gurus, recent, current and potential future energy secretaries, I am reminded of another track from the punk era: Pretty Vacant.
David Turver writes the Eigen Values Substack page, where this article first appeared.
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Plod are basically out of control and are effectively making up the law as they see fit. This cannot continue. Yesterday also saw the arrest of Tommy Robinson for having the nerve to be out celebrating his twelve year old daughter’s birthday – vid posted earlier by Mogwai.
Once again if No10 wanted to stop this it could but clearly the Hindu poodle is under orders to allow these actions. Fishy is very much a guilty party in all this.
A single man peacefully displaying a poster which simply confirms government protocols on Hamas is breaking the law how exactly? And the terrorist sympathisers who attack this brave young man and attempt to do him injury are not even cautioned let alone arrested. Britain’s finest eh?
But if the intention is to stimulate unrest and mistrust in institutions, all going as planned it seems.
Absolutely.
“Hindu poodle”!! PMSL…..
Actually, due to the amount of footage of this incident posted online it was easy enough for people to identify the nutter that instigated the assault on Niyak. Bet he wishes he’d worn his tea towel now. His mate seems to have also been identified in the comments section;
”Abdul Madi an employee of Pinnacle Wealth is allegedly the person seen assaulting @GhorbaniiNiyak
in London yesterday.
His profile has been taken down from his company’s site.”
https://twitter.com/DaveAtherton20/status/1766890580452249864
In past times when decency and standards of behaviour mattered this Madi thug would be in receipt of the wagging finger on his next day at work. In today’s climate of course it is a raging certainty that he will have his race card polished and ready to go as soon as he hears his boss announce…
“Madi, I’d like a word. In my office.”
You cannot polish a turd. Madi in a suit is still a third world islamist conducting himself as a, well, as a third world islamist in Londonistan.
Ticket back.
“it was easy enough for people to identify the nutter that instigated the assault on Niyak.”
I look forward to the Met announcing that a warrant has been issued for his arrest.
This is what we need more of for these entitled scummy crims who think they’re above the law. Justice served Indian style. Pretty sure there’d be a lot less shoplifting if staff fought back and had zero tolerance, like this guy;
https://twitter.com/PicturesFoIder/status/1766864137345212455
Terrific post Mogs. That will be one “converted” shoplifter.
Wonderful! All piss and vinegar until the whupping starts, then he suddenly cares. I’m glad he capitulates and then got several more licks just to drive home the point. Nobody else is likely to try that place.
I think it was a proportionate (and funny) response, but concerned if Plod try to prosecute the shopkeepers, which would be a travesty. A fine line between chastisement and ABH.
Yep, don’t mess with Mr Singh!
I like how the guy behind the counter was warning them against it then did a full 180. 
Well what do these scumbags expect will happen? Shopkeepers going to just sit back and watch their goods be leisurely stolen in the time it takes for the police to show up? I’m all for being proactive and sending a message that’s more effective than a few hours spent in a cell.
Deleted.
‘facing accusations of double standards’ ?
Eh?
We’re long past that.
An Islamist mayor who heads a wokist police stasi.
Allo allo allo.
What’s appenin ere.
We ave to be politicly crrect young fella mi lad.
That means allowin the baddies to ave their say.
An we can’t be seen to be opposin em!
So please allow us to put these cuffs on.
And ere’s the back of our nice van.
…
Oh what he’s a foreign who recognises police brutality? Oops, come on lads we’ve messed this one up
Nuffin to see ere, move along, move along!
Appalling double standards by the utterly woke and useless Plod.
Recall their response to anti-lockdown protests and the vigil, for Sarah Everard – wading in, batons flailing.
Say something nasty on social media, or make some stickers the elite don’t like and they’ll be down on you like a ton of bricks.
Anti-Semitic marches? OK
Been burgled? Tough luck.
Muslim grooming gangs? Nothing to see here.
I despair.
Spot on. Criticise a mentally ill retard tranny and off to Belmarsh. Rape a dozen white girls…nothing. Support Muslim terrorists publicly, or wave your bait and tackle at the no pride low IQ parade…nothing. Protest against Muzz terror or the Rona fascism, off to prison esp if you are white.
No wonder, really…..
The Mayor of London was given a direct mandate for policing in London in 2011, as part of the Police and Social Responsibility Act. As such, the Mayor is responsible for setting the strategic direction of policing in London through the Police and Crime Plan.
A number of powers are devolved to MOPAC, which is led by the Deputy Mayor for Policing and Crime, Sophie Linden. This includes the delivery of efficient and effective Met policing, management of resources and expenditure (MOPAC is the functional body of the Greater London Assembly that sets the policing budget, holds the Commissioner to account and in partnership discusses progress against the Police & Crime Plan, assesses the strategic budget position and key risks to delivery).
The new London Policing Board, is a new element to the Met’s governance structures.
The London Assembly also has a role in providing the formal check and balance on policing in London. The assembly’s Police and Crime Committee is charged with examining the work of MOPAC and matters of policing interest in London, and in doing so publicly scrutinises the Deputy Mayor for Policing and Crime on a regular basis, alongside the Commissioner.
Post consultation with the Commissioner, the Deputy Mayor recommends to the Mayor an annual policing budget for the Met.
Linden’s entire career has been spent in politics. From 1992 to 1997, she was a researcher for David Blunkett MP. Following the Labour victory at the 1997 general election, she became a Special Adviser to Blunkett when he was Secretary of State for Education and Employment. She was in the role from 1997 to 2001, following Blunkett as Special Adviser when he was appointed Home Secretary.
Linden moved to become a Labour councillor within the London Borough of Hackney, for the Dalston Ward, from 4 May 2006 to 10 June 2016. During this period, she worked for Bell Pottinger political communications, and unsuccessfully sought selection as Labour’s Prospective parliamentary candidate for Hampstead and Kilburn prior to the 2015 general election.
In 2016, she was appointed by the new Mayor of London, Sadiq Khan, to be the Deputy Mayor for Policing and Crime.
‘When William was our king declared
To ease the nation’s grievance,
With this new wind about I steered,
And swore to him allegiance;
Old principles I did revoke,
Set conscience at a distance;
Passive obedience was a joke,
A jest was non-resistance.
And this is law, I will maintain,
Until my dying day, Sir,
That whatsoever king shall reign,
I’ll be the Vicar of Bray, Sir.’
Good work. Thanks.
Gotta love the wording of this: A man was arrested and, after CCTV footage had been reviewed, de-arrested as if this would somehow neutralize the original event.
Our polices are cowards and a disgrace.
These latest shenanigans are adding to the feeling of a steady growing seething anger in the ,as yet, silent majority of the British public that’s only just under the surface! This feeling applies to most of the downtrodden western populations who are quite rightly feeling ignored.
History shows us these bottled up emotions lead to public unrest, Tptb will reap what they have sowed!
O/T How has Khan avoided criticism for the Forest Gate police station fire?
It was a new building, under 20 years old I would guess. Did it not have fire detection or sprinklers?
Khan is not only responsible for the police but also the fire brigade.