• Login
  • Register
The Daily Sceptic
No Result
View All Result
  • Articles
  • About
  • Archive
    • ARCHIVE
    • NEWS ROUND-UPS
  • Podcasts
  • Newsletter
  • Premium
  • Donate
  • Log In
The Daily Sceptic
No Result
View All Result

What Drought? Amazon Data Show Little Overall Rainfall Change in 300 Years

by Chris Morrison
7 February 2024 7:00 AM

Hysteria reigned supreme as recent global mainstream media headlines blamed last year’s drought in the Amazon basin on human-caused climate change. The BBC reported that without human involvement, the drought may have been a once in 1,500 year event. Damian Carrington of the Guardian said it “hit the maximum ‘exceptional’ level on the scientific scale”, whatever that means. Those of a more sceptical persuasion might note that the scares arose from computer models funded by the green billionaire investor Jeremy Grantham. In fact, rainfall in the area has shown little cyclical deviation across nearly 300 years, severe droughts are common in the basin, particularly in El Niño years, and temperatures in Brazil have risen by only 0.6°C since 1900 – considerably less than rises claimed for the northern hemisphere.

The scares emanated from World Weather Attribution (WWA), a green activist unit run out of the Grantham Institute at Imperial College. The take-out figure, reproduced around the media, was that the event was 30 times more likely to happen due to what the Guardian called “global heating”. The climate crisis is “super-charging” extreme weather across the planet, informs a clearly very disturbed Carrington, and the Amazon rainforest is already thought to be close to a “tipping point” into a drier state.

Calm down. Not according to work published last September by two geo-scientists in the American Meteorological Society’s Journal of Climate. The graph below tracks rainfall going back to 1760 and shows a remarkably consistent cyclical pattern up to present times. The graph also shows that severe droughts were not uncommon in the historical past – events that are also recorded in copious writings from the time.

The scientists used proxy evidence provided by tree rings to calculate rainfall and found that recent high and low flow anomalies on the Amazon river “may not have exceeded the natural variability of precipitation and stream-flow during the 19th century”. Recent river-level extremes may have been equalled or possibly exceeded in the pre-industrial 1800s, they added.

In its way the WWA fills a gap in the pseudoscientific market. Much to the irritation of activists, the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change has largely refused to be drawn on any increasing signal in natural disasters such as droughts, hurricanes and wildfires. Using what it claims to be “peer-reviewed” methods, WWA computer models first simulate a climate with no human involvement that does not exist, and then compare it with another simulation that is supposed to reflect the involvement of humans burning hydrocarbons. Any weather event at a local level that is magnified in the second scenario – magic words can be applied at this point – is said to be due to human-caused climate change.  “I can think of no other area of research where the relaxing of rigour and standards has been encouraged by researchers in order to generate claims more friendly to headlines, political advocacy and even lawsuits,” is the verdict of the distinguished science commentator Roger Pielke Jr.

The WWA accepts the influence of a strong El Niño causing drought in the Amazon last year, but said its study showed climate change was the main driver of the event, “through its influence on higher temperatures”. It is a little warmer in Brazil than 120 years ago as the planet has naturally bounced back from the Little Ice Age. But the tropics generally show much less warming than parts of the northern hemisphere.

Temperature in Brazil (World Bank)

The above temperature graph for Brazil has been published by the World Bank and it shows a rise from 1901 to 2022 of just 0.6°C. In fact on a five-year smoothing trend it displays a near 0.3°C fall between 2017 and 2022.

The billionaire-funded WWA and its faithful poodle press pack are clearly attempting to fill global populations with alarm about a collapsing climate and the need for a supra-national, collectivist Net Zero solution. WWA co-founder and regular BBC contributor Dr. Friederike Otto is quite clear about the political message being promoted. She noted that it was “very worrying” that human-caused climate change was the driver of the devastating drought in the Amazon last year. “Our choices in the battle against climate change remain the same in 2024 – continue to destroy lives and livelihoods by burning fossil fuels, or secure a healthy, liveable future by rapidly replacing them with clean renewable energy.” But whatever the political agenda, the product of attribution models is not scientific proof. In fact they prove nothing since they fail the most important principle of the scientific process – they cannot be tested and shown to be either true or false. In the end they are just opinions, and it is to the increasing discredit of much mainstream media that they are treated as anything else.

The Ottos of this world might think they can stop the climate changing, but back on the real planet the Amazon seems to be getting along just fine. Deforestation is a real problem but that has nothing to do with a changing climate, and is solvable at a political level. Improving the standard of living for people living in the Amazon region by encouraging more hydrocarbon use might help. Last week the Daily Sceptic reported on the accelerated rate of global ‘greening’ caused by higher levels of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere over the last two decades. This growth can be seen in the map below.

Leaf Area Index (LAI) 10-year growth/trend by region (blue/green represents high growth/trend)

The entire Amazon region has not shown as much leaf growth as India, Europe and eastern equatorial Africa. It has yet to hit the “maximum exceptional level on the scientific scale”, as the Guardian probably wouldn’t note, but it hardly suggests an area in vegetative decline.

Chris Morrison is the Daily Sceptic’s Environment Editor.

Tags: AmazonAmazon RainforestClimate AlarmismDroughtNet ZeroPropaganda

Donate

We depend on your donations to keep this site going. Please give what you can.

Donate Today

Comment on this Article

You’ll need to set up an account to comment if you don’t already have one. We ask for a minimum donation of £5 if you'd like to make a comment or post in our Forums.

Sign Up
Previous Post

News Round-Up

Next Post

Yes, the German President Did Liken AfD Supporters to “Rats”

Subscribe
Login
Notify of
Please log in to comment

To join in with the discussion please make a donation to The Daily Sceptic.

Profanity and abuse will be removed and may lead to a permanent ban.

13 Comments
Oldest
Newest Most Voted
Inline Feedbacks
View all comments

NEWSLETTER

View today’s newsletter

To receive our latest news in the form of a daily email, enter your details here:

DONATE

PODCAST

The Sceptic | Episode 45: Jack Hadfield on the Anti-Asylum Protests, Alan Miller on the Tyranny of Digital ID and James Graham on the Net Zero Pension Threat

by Richard Eldred
25 July 2025
0

LISTED ARTICLES

  • Most Read
  • Most Commented
  • Editor’s Picks

News Round-Up

30 July 2025
by Toby Young

Trump Was Right to Skewer Starmer Over Britain’s “Windmills Scam”

30 July 2025
by Ben Pile

The Online Safety Act is a Censor’s Charter

30 July 2025
by Andrew Doyle

The False Promises of Electric Vehicles Are Being Exposed

29 July 2025
by Tilak Doshi

Political Censors Have Cynically Hijacked Vital Child Protections

30 July 2025
by Toby Young

Trump Was Right to Skewer Starmer Over Britain’s “Windmills Scam”

24

Starmer to Recognise a Palestinian State

51

Political Censors Have Cynically Hijacked Vital Child Protections

17

The False Promises of Electric Vehicles Are Being Exposed

47

Rotherham Police Sexually Abused Us Too, Say Five Grooming Victims

12

Masking Our Schoolchildren Was Child Abuse – A Rare Chance to Stop It Returning

30 July 2025
by Dr Gary Sidley

The Online Safety Act is a Censor’s Charter

30 July 2025
by Andrew Doyle

Edinburgh University’s Decolonisation Report is Pure Left-Wing Politics

30 July 2025
by James Alexander

Trump Was Right to Skewer Starmer Over Britain’s “Windmills Scam”

30 July 2025
by Ben Pile

The NHS ‘Non-Jobs’ Bonanza

29 July 2025
by David Craig

POSTS BY DATE

February 2024
M T W T F S S
 1234
567891011
12131415161718
19202122232425
26272829  
« Jan   Mar »

SOCIAL LINKS

Free Speech Union

NEWSLETTER

View today’s newsletter

To receive our latest news in the form of a daily email, enter your details here:

POSTS BY DATE

February 2024
M T W T F S S
 1234
567891011
12131415161718
19202122232425
26272829  
« Jan   Mar »

DONATE

LISTED ARTICLES

  • Most Read
  • Most Commented
  • Editor’s Picks

News Round-Up

30 July 2025
by Toby Young

Trump Was Right to Skewer Starmer Over Britain’s “Windmills Scam”

30 July 2025
by Ben Pile

The Online Safety Act is a Censor’s Charter

30 July 2025
by Andrew Doyle

The False Promises of Electric Vehicles Are Being Exposed

29 July 2025
by Tilak Doshi

Political Censors Have Cynically Hijacked Vital Child Protections

30 July 2025
by Toby Young

Trump Was Right to Skewer Starmer Over Britain’s “Windmills Scam”

24

Starmer to Recognise a Palestinian State

51

Political Censors Have Cynically Hijacked Vital Child Protections

17

The False Promises of Electric Vehicles Are Being Exposed

47

Rotherham Police Sexually Abused Us Too, Say Five Grooming Victims

12

Masking Our Schoolchildren Was Child Abuse – A Rare Chance to Stop It Returning

30 July 2025
by Dr Gary Sidley

The Online Safety Act is a Censor’s Charter

30 July 2025
by Andrew Doyle

Edinburgh University’s Decolonisation Report is Pure Left-Wing Politics

30 July 2025
by James Alexander

Trump Was Right to Skewer Starmer Over Britain’s “Windmills Scam”

30 July 2025
by Ben Pile

The NHS ‘Non-Jobs’ Bonanza

29 July 2025
by David Craig

SOCIAL LINKS

Free Speech Union
  • Home
  • About us
  • Donate
  • Privacy Policy

Facebook

  • X

Instagram

RSS

Subscribe to our newsletter

© Skeptics Ltd.

Welcome Back!

Login to your account below

Forgotten Password? Sign Up

Create New Account!

Fill the forms below to register

All fields are required. Log In

Retrieve your password

Please enter your username or email address to reset your password.

Log In
No Result
View All Result
  • Articles
  • About
  • Archive
    • ARCHIVE
    • NEWS ROUND-UPS
  • Podcasts
  • Newsletter
  • Premium
  • Donate
  • Log In

© Skeptics Ltd.

wpDiscuz
You are going to send email to

Move Comment
Perfecty
Do you wish to receive notifications of new articles?
Notifications preferences