A just published YouGov poll suggests a looming electoral disaster for the Conservative Party, predicting a major defeat akin to their 1997 setback. The Telegraphhas the details.
The YouGov survey of 14,000 people forecasts that the Tories will retain just 169 seats, while Labour will sweep to power with 385 – giving Sir Keir Starmer a 120-seat majority.
The Tories will win 196 fewer seats than in 2019, more than the 178 Sir John Major lost in 1997.
The poll exposes the huge influence that Reform UK is set to have on the election result. The Right-wing party would not win any seats, but support for it would be the decisive factor in 96 Tory losses – the difference between a Labour majority and a hung Parliament.
The result would be the biggest collapse in support for a governing party since 1906, with an 11.5% swing to Labour.
It would all but guarantee Sir Keir’s party at least a decade in government, as no party with such a sizeable majority has ever lost the subsequent election.
The poll – obtained using the same method that has accurately predicted the results of several recent elections – will add to pressure on Rishi Sunak to pivot to a far more conservative agenda as he faces a crucial vote on his Rwanda policy this week.
It will also be studied closely by Tory MPs who believe a change of leader before this year’s election is the only way to avoid disaster.
Writing for the Telegraph, Lord Frost, the Conservative peer, described the poll’s findings as “stunningly awful” for the party, saying it was facing “a 1997-style wipeout – if we are lucky”.
He said a combination of tactical voting and any decision by Nigel Farage to return to frontline politics could leave the Conservatives facing “an extinction event”.
Lord Frost added that the only way to avoid the likely defeat was “to be as tough as it takes on immigration, reverse the debilitating increases in tax, end the renewables tax on energy costs – and much more”.
James Johnson, a former No. 10 pollster, said the figures suggested any possible path to victory for the Conservatives had “all but vanished”.
He said the data showed the Tories were haemorrhaging the votes of Leave supporters who backed them in 2019 and would be punished by those voters “if they do not get tough on migration – fast”.
Stop Press: If the Tories don’t act, the party will be reduced to a smoking ruin, warns David Frost in the Telegraph.
Stop Press 2: Conservative Home’sPaul Goodman indicates that the timing of YouGov’s poll is part of a larger plot to unseat Rishi Sunak. The game’s afoot, he says.
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I wonder if this is something to do with the difficulty of counting people in the occupied parts of Ukraine? I don’t understand why but it is almost bound to make it a problem even defining if someone is part of the Ukrainian population or not.
I suspect the authorities have got a pretty good idea of how many people there are in the UK, but they pretend not to because it suits them. I expect whatever figures there are have been kept vague enough to allow for plausible deniability.
And Russia has lost at least a million citizens to emigration.
‘This exodus is a terrible blow for Russia,” said Tamara Eidelman, a Russian historian who moved to Portugal after the invasion. “The layer that could have changed something in the country has now been washed away.”
Some say many more have emigrated. More than 3.8 million Russians left the country in the first three months of 2022, according to data from Russia’s Federal Security Service (FSB).
So now some state institutions are now asking even medium-level figures to refrain from foreign travel and banned from travelling more than two hours’ drive from Moscow without official permission.
The FSB have asked former officials who previously had access to state secrets to surrender their passports, and even some who never had access.
“Now they are coming to certain people and saying, ‘please hand in your red civilian passports, because you have access to sensitive information for the motherland, so we want to control your movements’,”
Alexandra Prokopenko, former Russian central bank official
I’m not questioning the statistics particularly, but Fedstat isn’t Russian, it’s a division in the US Department of Commerce… and I suppose were Russia quoting figures for America we would be expected to treat them with some scepticism?
….the Russian comparison would be Rosstat….
Not only have Ukraine lost 8 million legally, there have been thousands of men leaving illegally, numbers vary from 12,000-15,000 depending on who you read…as this is what they are willing to admit, it could be many more?
As the population is @ 43 million V 146 million, in Russia’s favour …. Russia probably have a long way to go before they are depleted!
The Unified Interdepartmental Information and Statistical System (EMISS) was developed as part of the implementation of the federal target program “Development of State Statistics of Russia in 2007-2011”.
The purpose of creating the System is to provide access via the Internet to state bodies, local governments, legal entities and individuals to official statistical information, including metadata, generated in accordance with the federal plan of statistical work.
EMISS is a state information resource that combines official state information statistical resources formed by the subjects of official statistical accounting as part of the implementation of the federal plan for statistical work.
Access to official statistical information included in the statistical resources included in the interdepartmental system is carried out on a free and non-discriminatory basis.
The system was put into operation by a joint order of the Ministry of Telecom and Mass Communications of Russia and Rosstat dated November 16, 2011 No. 318/461 .
The EMISS coordinator is the Federal State Statistics Service.
The EMISS operator is the Ministry of Telecom and Mass Communications of the Russian Federation”.
In case of problems while working with the system, please contact us:
You can bet your life they won’t be going anywhere near Ukraine, which actively discriminates against Russian speakers.
Those who did run away to escape the anticipated conscription were clearly listening to Western misinformation, since it was clear that the process would only involve reservists, not raw recruits. And they claim these people were the “elite”. Clearly not very bright and a little yellow.
‘RVC reports that it “again visited” Bryansk Oblast, where the fighters managed to perform “combat tasks”, communicate with residents, hand them their postcards and “ask them to hide during the hostilities”.
As proof, the corps released a video in which its fighters really communicate with the residents of the village of Sluchovsk and conduct combat operations there.’
What she says she said to the FT was “Russia’s security services have almost total leeway to interpret the rules under revisions to laws on state secrets, espionage and treason. Basically any information can be deemed secret, so the embedded FSB officers start telling you that you have sensitive information. What is it? Why is it secret and who decides that? Nobody knows,” Not quite the same thing.
It is highly likely that Ukraine have lost hundreds of thousands of troops.
Former Pentagon adviser Colonel Douglas McGregor shared secret data on the losses of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
“When Zaluzhny was in the US, he met with Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin and General Milley. He secretly told them that Ukraine had lost 257,000 people since the beginning of the conflict,” the retired officer shared.
A Turkish publication, citing Israeli intelligence agency MOSSAD, claims to show the real number of casualties for both parties in the conflict as Ukrainians killed in action reaches staggering 157,000 with 2,458 NATO soldiers dead and 234,000 injured.
Russia 18,480 dead with 44,500 injured.
US Military analyst William Schryner wrote in January 2023 that “Ukraine has now suffered approximately 500,000 irretrievable (military) casualties and virtually the entirety of their original inventories of military hardware – the equivalent of ALL the personnel and equipment (both active and reserves) with which they commenced this conflict.”
Telegram channels from the frontline show Nato heavy weapons being destroyed on a regular basis and Ukrainian troops and Nato country mercenaries being destroyed by the hundreds every day which confirm the above figures may be accurate with very little Russian losses.
In February 2022 Ukraine passed a law where they would compensate the families of servicemen killed in action.
Ukraine are so corrupt that they would rather designate those killed as “missing” instead so they don’t have to pay out the compensation. https://imetatronink.substack.com/p/ok-doomer?publication_id=1085164&post_id=95312586&isFreemail=true
This was posted by geo-political analyst Pepe Escobar.
Ukraine have lost 387,000 conscripted soldiers killed in action.
Plus 31,240 mercenaries have been killed.
Ukrainian Telegram channel “Observer”: Open Source INTelligence (Intelligence from open sources), based on reports from funeral agencies, extracts from morgues, as well as the results of an analysis of radio, cellular and satellite exchange of forces of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, reports that as of October 20, irretrievable losses of The Armed Forces of Ukraine amounted to 402,000 people, of which 387,000 were killed. At the same time, to date, the Committee of Soldiers’ Mothers of Ukraine has allegedly prepared more than 320,000 appeals “about the fate of the missing soldiers,” but the SBU has forbidden filing applications with the prosecutor’s office for national security purposes. https://vk.com/wall578617852_26297
..a whole generation of young men…a whole generation who won’t be father’s…it’s a fuc***g tragedy……
Peace talks NOW….….
but no the USA has just authorised (yesterday) a new $2.6 billion package of U.S. military aid to Ukraine which includes $500 million for immediate supplies…
They weren’t kidding when they said…’to the last Ukrainian’…..that’s what literally will be left……
Jabby Mcstiff
2 years ago
It is a sad situation. I speak to Ukranians and Russians frequently and they seem remarkably bright and many of them have a wonderful facility for language and really enjoy learning more about English. I think people’s names sound much more beautiful in Russian and they have the patronymic and the diminutive which we seem to have lost so long ago that nobody could possibly notice anymore.
Jabby Mcstiff
2 years ago
You should always be mindful of the western neurotic fear of death. Terrorist organisations and intelligence agencies all over the world know and have perceived this reality. If you are in that state, the state they want you to be in, then you have to grasp it and snap out of it. Because very shortly there aren’t going to be any comfortable options. You either apply yourself to working with others in order to survive or you don’t.
Jabby Mcstiff
2 years ago
None of us really appreciate how much we need the next man, whether its taking out bins or whatever, We need to be mindful of just how fragile life is for most of the people in this country, who live in cities. We are moving into a different phase now. I don’t care what happens I know where my loyalty lies. At least in the horror to come we will find out about true character.
Jabby Mcstiff
2 years ago
There is an assumption that it being encouraged here – that if you knew the reality you could control it. Believe me by the end of this year you are going to see governments showing their people some rather unpleasant tactics. Of course in the volatile times we live in, I would say that the average life expectancy of any government is about two weeks.
Jabby Mcstiff
2 years ago
Look at the current trajectory in terms of econmics. The dollar based system has a couple of weeks left and the pound is totally subservient. This is a major disruption but people pretend it isn’t going to happen. I can tell you that it is going to happen very soon.
Jabby Mcstiff
2 years ago
I know how hysterical people are at the moment and really worried and looking for guidance, When this situation g ets seriois you are going to have millions of people who haven’t got the faintest idea about it. A lot of people are simply going to crack up. You have to accept this reality.
Jabby Mcstiff
2 years ago
It isn;t easy trying to make people understand about the reality to come. We can obviate that if we comne together. If I have one desire it is to keep our people together.
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I wonder if this is something to do with the difficulty of counting people in the occupied parts of Ukraine? I don’t understand why but it is almost bound to make it a problem even defining if someone is part of the Ukrainian population or not.
We’ve just had a census yet, as Prof Norman Fenton keeps illustrating, we haven’t a clue how many people there are in the UK.
I suspect the authorities have got a pretty good idea of how many people there are in the UK, but they pretend not to because it suits them. I expect whatever figures there are have been kept vague enough to allow for plausible deniability.
And Russia has lost at least a million citizens to emigration.
‘This exodus is a terrible blow for Russia,” said Tamara Eidelman, a Russian historian who moved to Portugal after the invasion. “The layer that could have changed something in the country has now been washed away.”
Some say many more have emigrated. More than 3.8 million Russians left the country in the first three months of 2022, according to data from Russia’s Federal Security Service (FSB).
https://www.fedstat.ru/indicator/38480
So now some state institutions are now asking even medium-level figures to refrain from foreign travel and banned from travelling more than two hours’ drive from Moscow without official permission.
The FSB have asked former officials who previously had access to state secrets to surrender their passports, and even some who never had access.
“Now they are coming to certain people and saying, ‘please hand in your red civilian passports, because you have access to sensitive information for the motherland, so we want to control your movements’,”
Alexandra Prokopenko, former Russian central bank official
I followed that link but couldn’t make much sense of it. Any tips? It’s not clear whether these are permanent departures.
Where would 3.8 millions Russians be able to go and live, legally?
I’m not questioning the statistics particularly, but Fedstat isn’t Russian, it’s a division in the US Department of Commerce… and I suppose were Russia quoting figures for America we would be expected to treat them with some scepticism?
….the Russian comparison would be Rosstat….
Not only have Ukraine lost 8 million legally, there have been thousands of men leaving illegally, numbers vary from 12,000-15,000 depending on who you read…as this is what they are willing to admit, it could be many more?
As the population is @ 43 million V 146 million, in Russia’s favour …. Russia probably have a long way to go before they are depleted!
The Unified Interdepartmental Information and Statistical System (EMISS) was developed as part of the implementation of the federal target program “Development of State Statistics of Russia in 2007-2011”.
The purpose of creating the System is to provide access via the Internet to state bodies, local governments, legal entities and individuals to official statistical information, including metadata, generated in accordance with the federal plan of statistical work.
EMISS is a state information resource that combines official state information statistical resources formed by the subjects of official statistical accounting as part of the implementation of the federal plan for statistical work.
Access to official statistical information included in the statistical resources included in the interdepartmental system is carried out on a free and non-discriminatory basis.
The system was put into operation by a joint order of the Ministry of Telecom and Mass Communications of Russia and Rosstat dated November 16, 2011
No. 318/461 .
The EMISS coordinator is the Federal State Statistics Service.
The EMISS operator is the Ministry of Telecom and Mass Communications of the Russian Federation”.
In case of problems while working with the system, please contact us:
info@fedstat.ru , emiss@digital.gov.ru
…as usual I have no idea what this is about..
So Rosstat use a computing system called EMISS…?
You can bet your life they won’t be going anywhere near Ukraine, which actively discriminates against Russian speakers.
Those who did run away to escape the anticipated conscription were clearly listening to Western misinformation, since it was clear that the process would only involve reservists, not raw recruits. And they claim these people were the “elite”. Clearly not very bright and a little yellow.
The FSB reported a slight uptick in Russians traveling to war-torn Ukraine — 328,435 (Jan-Mar 22), up from 316,286 in January-March 2021.
That sounds suspiciously like the number of Russian troops in the liberated regions.
Or maybe something else?
‘RVC reports that it “again visited” Bryansk Oblast, where the fighters managed to perform “combat tasks”, communicate with residents, hand them their postcards and “ask them to hide during the hostilities”.
As proof, the corps released a video in which its fighters really communicate with the residents of the village of Sluchovsk and conduct combat operations there.’
06 Apr 23
Oops……!
In case of problems while working with the system, please contact us:
info@fedstat.ru , emiss@digital.gov.ru
or
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2023/02/13/russia-diaspora-war-ukraine/
Take your pick
What she says she said to the FT was “Russia’s security services have almost total leeway to interpret the rules under revisions to laws on state secrets, espionage and treason. Basically any information can be deemed secret, so the embedded FSB officers start telling you that you have sensitive information. What is it? Why is it secret and who decides that? Nobody knows,”
Not quite the same thing.
It is highly likely that Ukraine have lost hundreds of thousands of troops.
Former Pentagon adviser Colonel Douglas McGregor shared secret data on the losses of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
“When Zaluzhny was in the US, he met with Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin and General Milley. He secretly told them that Ukraine had lost 257,000 people since the beginning of the conflict,” the retired officer shared.
A Turkish publication, citing Israeli intelligence agency MOSSAD, claims to show the real number of casualties for both parties in the conflict as Ukrainians killed in action reaches staggering 157,000 with 2,458 NATO soldiers dead and 234,000 injured.
Russia 18,480 dead with 44,500 injured.
US Military analyst William Schryner wrote in January 2023 that “Ukraine has now suffered approximately 500,000 irretrievable (military) casualties and virtually the entirety of their original inventories of military hardware – the equivalent of ALL the personnel and equipment (both active and reserves) with which they commenced this conflict.”
Telegram channels from the frontline show Nato heavy weapons being destroyed on a regular basis and Ukrainian troops and Nato country mercenaries being destroyed by the hundreds every day which confirm the above figures may be accurate with very little Russian losses.
In February 2022 Ukraine passed a law where they would compensate the families of servicemen killed in action.
Ukraine are so corrupt that they would rather designate those killed as “missing” instead so they don’t have to pay out the compensation.
https://imetatronink.substack.com/p/ok-doomer?publication_id=1085164&post_id=95312586&isFreemail=true
This was posted by geo-political analyst Pepe Escobar.
Ukraine have lost 387,000 conscripted soldiers killed in action.
Plus 31,240 mercenaries have been killed.
Ukrainian Telegram channel “Observer”: Open Source INTelligence (Intelligence from open sources), based on reports from funeral agencies, extracts from morgues, as well as the results of an analysis of radio, cellular and satellite exchange of forces of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, reports that as of October 20, irretrievable losses of The Armed Forces of Ukraine amounted to 402,000 people, of which 387,000 were killed. At the same time, to date, the Committee of Soldiers’ Mothers of Ukraine has allegedly prepared more than 320,000 appeals “about the fate of the missing soldiers,” but the SBU has forbidden filing applications with the prosecutor’s office for national security purposes.
https://vk.com/wall578617852_26297
Even the pro-Nato propaganda merchants the BBC stated that only 16,071 named Russian troops had died in total up to March 2023.
They daren’t tell the world the Ukrainian losses which are in the hundreds of thousands.
https://www.bbc.com/russian/features-64840229?ocid=wsrussian.social.in-app-messaging.telegram..russiantelegram_.edit
The BBC have revised this figure to just 17,375 named Russian troops.
https://www.bbc.com/russian/features-64984414
..a whole generation of young men…a whole generation who won’t be father’s…it’s a fuc***g tragedy……
Peace talks NOW….….
but no the USA has just authorised (yesterday) a new $2.6 billion package of U.S. military aid to Ukraine which includes $500 million for immediate supplies…
They weren’t kidding when they said…’to the last Ukrainian’…..that’s what literally will be left……
It is a sad situation. I speak to Ukranians and Russians frequently and they seem remarkably bright and many of them have a wonderful facility for language and really enjoy learning more about English. I think people’s names sound much more beautiful in Russian and they have the patronymic and the diminutive which we seem to have lost so long ago that nobody could possibly notice anymore.
You should always be mindful of the western neurotic fear of death. Terrorist organisations and intelligence agencies all over the world know and have perceived this reality. If you are in that state, the state they want you to be in, then you have to grasp it and snap out of it. Because very shortly there aren’t going to be any comfortable options. You either apply yourself to working with others in order to survive or you don’t.
None of us really appreciate how much we need the next man, whether its taking out bins or whatever, We need to be mindful of just how fragile life is for most of the people in this country, who live in cities. We are moving into a different phase now. I don’t care what happens I know where my loyalty lies. At least in the horror to come we will find out about true character.
There is an assumption that it being encouraged here – that if you knew the reality you could control it. Believe me by the end of this year you are going to see governments showing their people some rather unpleasant tactics. Of course in the volatile times we live in, I would say that the average life expectancy of any government is about two weeks.
Look at the current trajectory in terms of econmics. The dollar based system has a couple of weeks left and the pound is totally subservient. This is a major disruption but people pretend it isn’t going to happen. I can tell you that it is going to happen very soon.
I know how hysterical people are at the moment and really worried and looking for guidance, When this situation g ets seriois you are going to have millions of people who haven’t got the faintest idea about it. A lot of people are simply going to crack up. You have to accept this reality.
It isn;t easy trying to make people understand about the reality to come. We can obviate that if we comne together. If I have one desire it is to keep our people together.