As new mortality data come in, it’s increasingly clear that something abnormal happened in the spring of 2021 when it comes to people dying of causes other than flu, Covid and other respiratory diseases.
I have updated the non-respiratory data to the end of 2023, so there are now four years of Covid-era data included in it. The progression can however be traced back all the way to 2010, as shown below (the red line is the running 52-week average), and the sharp rise from early 2021 is now clear as day. Whatever is behind this has caused a rising trend in non-respiratory mortality (NRM) that has now stabilised, but at a much higher level than before the whole Covid imbroglio began. In fact, 2023 showed the worst total non-respiratory mortality figures than in any of the three preceding years, at 9.5% above the pre-Covid 2015-2019 average. In recognition of this sorry reality, the ONS this week said that life expectancy has gone backwards by 12 years to 2010 levels.
Take a look at the chart below, which shows the NRM pattern during the period 2015-2019 as well as the corollary for respiratory disease mortality (RD). Averages for each week are shown. The deaths from respiratory illness are by definition from acute disease, at least those that were properly registered as ‘died from’ rather than ‘died with’. The two lines match very closely in shape at least, the only real difference being the total numbers involved in each case (note the different range for respiratory disease on the secondary Y axis on the right hand side).
To emphasise this similarity further we can compare the ratio of non-respiratory mortality to respiratory disease mortality for each year from 2010 to 2019. They run like this:
- 2010 6.33
- 2011 6.16
- 2012 6.08
- 2013 5.82
- 2014 6.58
- 2015 5.98
- 2016 6.28
- 2017 6.26
- 2018 6.07
- 2019 6.36
Average for the whole period is 6.18.
The maximum variation in each year from the average proportion of NRM deaths to total deaths (average of 86.1%) is only 0.75% (up or down). This all goes to show that there is a strong consistency to the overall yearly figures, despite the large variation in weekly death numbers for both non-respiratory mortality and respiratory mortality over the course of each year.
NRM is clearly highly seasonal, so even though the bulk of these deaths arise from chronic morbidity, whatever it is that tips an individual over the edge to his or her demise varies over the course of the year.
My working assumption is that whatever factors drive normal seasonal variation in acute respiratory disease mortality are also responsible for a similar variation in the proportion of people dying from chronic disease during any given week of the year. The importance of studying seasonal variation as the main driver of disease variability was emphasised in a recent paper in the peer-reviewed Journal of Clinical Medicine, which strikingly found no noticeable effect on Covid incidence patterns from vaccines and non-pharmaceutical interventions but a clear link with the seasonality of coronaviruses.
The most likely common factor to search for is whatever causes a variation in the vulnerability of people to any form of external shock, e.g. a reduction in their immune defences. In the normal course of events this may for example be something climate related (e.g. cold weather) or perhaps depends on some other natural variables like sunlight intensity.
Could a man-made event that may have had a large influence on the immune status of large sectors of the population have changed the overall picture in a very different way? It may be a worthwhile exercise to look for such a signal in the mortality figures.
Turning to the Covid years, the chart below shows the excess mortality for both NRM and RD for the period 2020-2023, as well as the number of vaccine doses administered. Here we can see that the usual mortality patterns are at first completely disrupted, and this is consistent with the argument that a new pathogen which had never been encountered before had arrived and consequently had an outsize influence on acute mortality. However, by 2023 we can see that the ratio between NRM and RD has once again settled back to normal:
- 2020 3.27
- 2021 3.88
- 2022 5.86
- 2023 6.16
Average for the whole period is 4.49.
Already with this chart it is possible to see that, by comparing the different way the NRM and RD excess mortality responded to the initial Covid waves, the component of non-respiratory mortality derived from the after-effects of Covid itself (i.e., Long Covid) is probably relatively small. This is because NRM excess (blue line) was falling significantly – as expected due to mortality displacement – after the initial spike of deaths in the spring of 2020, even while the second RD spike (red line) was in full flood. This suggests that the after-effects of the first wave did not markedly increase non-respiratory mortality during the rest of the year.
This is not the case with regard to the vaccination campaigns. To illustrate this one can look at the percentage changes from the 2015-2019 pre-Covid baseline for both non-respiratory and respiratory excess deaths (see charts below). NRM excess percentage (bottom chart, red line, right-hand axis) has been increasing year-on-year since the vaccine campaigns, whereas RD excess percentage (top chart, green line, right-hand axis) has been diminishing. The respiratory disease mortality has been falling despite the number of vaccine doses also falling each year. Note the different values on the secondary Y axis (right hand side) in each chart.
Vaccines delivered:
- 2020 75 million (doses one and two)
- 2021 40 million (dose three)
- 2022 25 million (doses four and five)
- 2023 17 million (doses six and seven)
Respiratory disease excess over 2015-2019 baseline (RD):
- 2020 91.3%
- 2021 62.6%
- 2022 13.9%
- 2023 9.9%
Non-respiratory mortality excess over 2015-2019 baseline (NRM):
- 2020 1.0%
- 2021 2.0%
- 2022 7.9%
- 2023 9.5%
The fall in respiratory mortality can perhaps best be explained by the attenuation expected from a gradual increase in population immunity to the new pathogen, and also by a declining virulence of the pathogen itself (e.g. the less deadly Omicron variant). But how does one explain the non-respiratory mortality changes, other than through a general long-term decline of the overall health of a population?
Unfortunately, it is still not possible to state with any certainty which component of the public health measures employed (vaccines or NPIs) can give the most plausible explanation for the bulk of the non-respiratory excess death phenomenon (assuming, as noted above, that the contribution from the virus by itself is relatively small). Many who have commented on these developments believe that the vaccination campaigns primarily caused the uptick. This can only be confirmed once the authorities release full mortality data including the vaccination status of all individuals at the time of their death.
The recent whistleblower data release in New Zealand provided in my view the strongest evidence to date of a temporal association between vaccination status and increased excess mortality. It is now all but impossible for the authorities to deny the link. If they want the public to feel safe about Covid vaccinations again, it is now up to them to disprove that vaccinations were causative in the excess mortality experienced over the last three years.
The key insight to be gleaned from separating overall mortality data into the two components of respiratory and non-respiratory disease is in recognising that both are subject to the same seasonal variability in population health vulnerabilities. They are coupled together such that as one rises, the other falls. This is presumably because they depend on the same pool of vulnerable people who are at risk of dying at any particular time.
Covid was a novel pathogen that in 2020 disproportionately increased respiratory mortality and thus, due to their synergy, pushed non-respiratory mortality downwards (part of the mortality displacement effect). Something then happened in 2021 that increased the size of the pool of vulnerable people over the following two years. The normal relationship between the two mortality types has re-established itself in 2023 (e.g. the proportion between them was restored), but at a level around 10% above pre-Covid mortality.
Total excess deaths for the four years (compared to 2015-2019) have now reached around 225,000, which should under normal circumstances lead to a fall of around 9% (i.e., 20,000) in annual deaths in subsequent years due to mortality displacement as deaths of the old and vulnerable are brought forward by some unusual event. Instead, what we see is excess mortality in 2023 reaching a new peak of 10.6% with currently no signs of slowing up. Once you take into account that instead of 9% fewer deaths we have 10.6% more, this adds up to a huge nearly 20% rise above expected levels. Welcome to the new normal.
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They’re not skiving! They’re just staying at home to protect granny! We should be grateful!
I wonder how many of these glaikit nutters that glue themselves to roads, destroy public property or deface Starbucks/KFC/McDonald’s ( because that’ll ”free Palestine” ), and disrupt society generally with their antisocial behaviour, have jobs. Because I think not only do they have zero respect for others but they’re completely devoid of any self-respect also. Seriously, what right-minded person goes on like this? Pure vandalism. I’m sure her parents are proud!;
https://twitter.com/ScooterCasterNY/status/1766113531433230615
As German, I have much more reason to be pissed of by English politics of that time than these nutjobs. Yet, I’d never destroy a painting of Llyod George or Winston Churchill (or even Arthur Harris, for that matter). I guess this must be because we’re all completely barbarian quasi-animals who only derive pleasure from destroying irreplacable works of art and culture and hacking of the feet and hands of children (all of these being actual tropes of British WWI wartime propaganda) …
Yes but do you know what Mogwai means by “glaikit” ?
Is this a question? Not until I looked it up but it’s not really necessary for the meaning of the sentence as it just adds emphasis to object of it. Glaikit nutter could also be rendered as nutty nutter.
Yes it is a question. —-It is not confrontational though. I am only asking if you have heard of this since you are German and that is an old Scottish word that most English people will not be that familiar with.
Only one solution for that oxygen thieving halfwit …
Short Drop.
Mogwai
If this was at Cambridge university, then perhaps she’s a student. Very worrying indeed, that supposedly the brightest young minds in the country can behave like this: spoilt little brats, who are desecrating priceless British artefacts. I mean, does she really have any idea who Balfour is? Clearly many British professors are under pressure to fall in line with the latest leftist mind fart; under pressure from the students, in fact. In the past, this little girl would have been expelled, fined, possibly even arrested. Now the professors sit back and nod their heads “yes Balfour was a racist misogynistic islamophobe Covid-denying far right extremist, and he should be erased”
Interestingly, it was at Beijing University (the Cambridge of China) where Mao’s ‘thought’ was followed most feverishly by the students, who then turned against their professors for ‘old ideas, old habits, old customs, old culture’, vandalising artefacts, burning books and trashing people’s homes. Sound familiar?
That is what also happened at Evergreen State College in Washington.
Too much employment legislation:
‘“It is a common misconception that more laws mean greater protection. Legislation has become increasingly complicated and ambiguous for employers. There comes a point when the added benefit is questionable and must be outweighed by the burden which it places on business. This is especially the case for small and medium sized employers who may not have a specialist, in-house HR function.”
“In the past five years (2005-10) there has been a continuous flow of new employment laws passed ranging from the new Agency Workers Regulations, the Age Discrimination Regulations to European case law on rights to accrue holidays even while on long term sick leave. New employment legislation is estimated to have added £70 billion to costs for businesses over the last decade.’
So, Blair’s Britain. A massive public sector: ‘At its most recent high-point in 2010, the public sector employed about 6.1 million workers, or 21% of all UK workers. This followed an increase of about 700,000 in the absolute size of the public workforce since 1998–99.’
But:
‘The government has confirmed at least 10 new (HR) laws for 2024’
So Cameron, May, Bunter, Sunak’s Britain as well; still a massive public sector after fourteen entirely pointless and incompetent years:
‘There were an estimated 5.90 million employees in the public sector in September 2023, which is 35,000 (0.6%) more than in June 2023 and 135,000 (2.3%) more than in September 2022.’
We know what to do:
‘It will be necessary to curtail the major areas of government spending: welfare, health and education. Indeed, emergency cuts, or at least freezes, in welfare benefits and public sector pay may be in order – the kind of measures seen recently in struggling central European countries. Indeed, we should start this year – welfare benefits, pensions and public sector pay should not rise by more than private sector pay rises. If public sector pay cannot be reined in this year it will never be reined in. If welfare benefits are not pegged to wage increases then employment incentives will be diminished.
However, the crisis also presents opportunities for Cameron to launch positive longer-term reforms that reduce the scope of government. He could start by tackling public sector pensions (a liability of over £1 trillion), move on to welfare reform and then health and education, promoting competition and efficiency through individual savings accounts and voucher-type schemes while getting rid of the costly bureaucrats.
How could this be done in practice? A voucher scheme could involve a voucher of a fixed money value being given for the first five years of the scheme. Its value in real terms – and certainly relative to national income – would then fall. This could be politically acceptable as it would happen at the same time as huge efficiency savings were achieved.
And let’s not forget regulation. Removing red tape – for example, the new gender pay audits – would reduce the government payroll while lowering costs for businesses.’
IEA 2010
But no-one has the backbone to do it…..so they will be removed…..and so will the next ones and so on until someone gets the message…….
‘
All Bureaucracies are the same. They expand out of control and grab more and more power and control. The virus of Politically Correct, wokery and human rights nonsense has spread all across the western world faster than a speeding bullet.
I worked as a senior exec at a ftse 100 company, the ceo appointed a new female HR Director. who still works at a senior level in Industry, she never remained in any post for more than 2 years. On arrival what was a small efficient department bloated to a large over reaching one, a more manipulative and machiavellian individual I have never before or since come across. She caused division between the execs through a whisper campaign, she would monitor and spy on staff members through their social media accounts. she introduced the concept of pay increases linked to ” the correct behaviors and values”, she denied job opportunities to be offered to non university educated staff.
She was a true horror of a woke virtue signaller, who justified her spying and displacement of members of the workforce for the good of the company.
The ceo was weak, she used knowledge of his extra marital affairs to keep her position. True to form when a new ceo joined she left. I regularly see her writing s in HR journals on the importance of equity and kindness. A more unkind person I have yet to meet, she is also a mentor for her discipline which helps explain the malignant growth and influence of a role that actually is of no financial or creative value to a business.
I know this isn’t necessarily gender-specific, although I’ve always got on better with male colleagues than female ( probably because they, like me, weren’t bitchy and didn’t flirt with the male consultants on ward rounds ), but your post reminded me for some reason of this. So in the spirit of ‘International Womens’ Day’ I must share this skit that’s floating around, plus I always was a Harry Enfield fan back in the day, so any excuse;
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LS37SNYjg8w&ab_channel=BBCStudios
Thankfully, this has meanwhile been fixed: I know a fair lot of men who are extremely fond of kittens and entirely unaware of what gold standard means.
genius. Thanks for posting
Why do you think your CEO chose her?
Christ only knows
I mean do you think the CEO just wandered into it without really paying attention to the possible consequences, or was he on board with her agenda, largely? I work in a small firm which doesn’t really do box ticking crap, but a lot of our clients, especially the US-based ones, seem to really push it and they are in the B2B space so no need to appeal to the general public.
Rights come from our humanity. Not from governments. Because if you get your rights from bureaucrats, politicians and governments then those same people can take those rights away again.
Indeed- Clarence Thomas said something similar in his gay marriage dissent.
Speaking of International Women’s Day, I had an e-mail from my old school today (an all boy’s grammar school since the sixteenth century) inviting me to help them celebrate International Women’s Day and champion the importance of gender equality.
It’s good to know the lads are being fired up to begin the much needed fight for equal rights and equal pay for women.Who knows, today’s might even win women the vote one day.
Evil globalists are destroying western civilisation. HR are just useful idiots.
There is arather angry and curt tone to this writing. Of course there is plenty to be said about these miserable tendencies but this seems to be a list of bitter complaints masquerading as a cogent proposition. Stoicism is an interesting philosophy to reflect upon. In Greece it was one of the three responses to the decline of empire, along with Epicureanism and Pyrrhonic sceptism. There were schools devoted to the science of the will in the early twentieth century but they were killed of by the world wars. Christian teaching provided a profound exposition of how stoicism and tenderness represent the fullness of being. Surely an attempt to understand such tendencies begins with an attempt to unravel their antecedents first. For some people it takes a lot for them to keep their physical and mental health in good condition in the times that we are living in.
Nuanced erudition, how passe
The author does have a point, but is also clearly conflating matters to attract traffic.
Now now, what could have caused that ca. 40% uptick starting in 2020 in the trend of the (sadly) long-term sick?