Some of you will recall that the U.K. Health Security Agency (UKHSA) claimed not to have the resources to carry out a systematic appraisal of the 100 models forming the backbone of the UKHSA’s mapping review called ‘Effectiveness of non-pharmaceutical interventions to reduce transmission of COVID-19 in the U.K.‘
We have documented its dreadful reviews that include the wrong type of evidence to address the question but still made their way to Parliament as evidence of effectiveness.
So, as we were swimming in cash, lounging by the pool in our villas in the Caribbean, we did the job for them.
We found that the 100 models were not science, but a mass of assumptions and unverifiable statements which reflected the publication frenzy that went off the boil as soon as attention moved away from Covid.
According to Mr. Hancock, when mask mandates were introduced (to please Ms. Sturgeon), there was no strong evidence that they made any difference to the transmission of any viral respiratory agent. This still holds today.
So, the 100 models were retrofitted evidence to try and justify a national policy based on the distortion of the precautionary principle.
We think it likely that a little bit of cash will be found for friends of the UKHSA to find that: “well, maybe, if we do this or that analysis a bit of an effect will be found.”
But does the UKHSA have a few pennies after all to look at the evidence behind a national policy that muzzled most Britons for nigh on two years? Here is a summary of the UKHSA funding for 2022-23:
Maybe a few pennies could come from the over £2 billion of ring-fenced Covid funding?
Our previous work showed the UKHSA is no stranger to wasting money: “Hundreds of millions of pounds may have been wasted on a drug for influenza that works no better than paracetamol, a landmark analysis has said.” By 2014, The U.K. had spent £473m on Tamiflu, which is stockpiled by Governments globally to prepare for the dreaded ‘F’ pandemic (flu).
However, we find it strange that there is such a ring-fenced sum for a pathogen which is now endemic, but maybe the UKHSA knows something we do not.
With such a huge drain on the exchequer from the resources provided for evidence-free policies, is everything all right then? Not according to the auditor (page 96 of the report):
DHSC and UKHSA should work with HM Treasury to agree and implement an action plan to get UKHSA on track to deliver auditable financial statements for 2022-23. I understand that work on an action plan has begun. Resolution of the issues, for example those arising from the implementation of the new ERP system, will require additional investment and support for UKHSA’s finance team to ensure they are properly equipped to succeed with this challenge.
1.24 The audit work that I have performed has identified significant shortcomings in financial control and governance which are pervasive to UKHSA’s financial statements. The uncertainties that I have encountered mean that I am not able to report quantifiable adjustments which UKHSA could make to correct the financial statements.
More money is needed then. To fund what? More models?
The report may be interesting if somewhat long at 127 pages. There is a helpful introduction by the Chair of UKHSA, Mr. Peters. Let’s hope he knows a little more about public health than his predecessor at Public Health England, Mr. Selbie, who described his knowledge at the Covid Inquiry as enough to fill the back of a postage stamp. Second class stamp, that is.
Dr. Carl Heneghan is the Oxford Professor of Evidence Based Medicine and Dr. Tom Jefferson is an epidemiologist based in Rome who works with Professor Heneghan on the Cochrane Collaboration. This article was first published on their Substack, Trust The Evidence, which you can subscribe to here.
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A couple of weeks ago Douglas Murray was congratulating Johnson for resisting additional Christmas restrictions in the face of such dire warnings because
“The experts had got it wrong this time”.
All well and good Douglass but, as Toby days in his introduction above, they have got it wrong every time both about Covid and many times previously.
Most notably with Ferguson over Foot & Mouth and who with Omnicon was predictedcting 5k deaths a month until very recently.
The answer is that both the political and scientific leaders were ignoramuses.
And we trust them with nukes?
Unless it was and is still a ‘plot’…
and even worse, climate change
OO! You captured TWO trolls that time! Well done you!
The experts got it wrong – again, but still the damage was done without any compensation or financial help to those sectors that so desperately relied on the Christmas period for business.
the difference this time was the revelation of the twitter exchange between Graham Medley of LSTHM and Fraser Nelson of the Spectator where Medley admitted no positive outcome scenario was presented to the Govt. The Cabinet meeting that following Monday was decision between one of 3 options to further lockdown. The Govt chose none of them and, as it turns out. we didn’t get a million cases a day and 5,000 deaths
It would seem a logical position to take that if the ‘modelling’ always gets it wrong then STOP THE MODELLING!!!!!
As for that creature Ferguson – the unspeakable cruelty to millions of helpless animals – new-born lambs beside their dying mothers trapped in the freezing mud with no one to help them, their anguished bleating as they died enough to break any farmer’s heart – but not Ferguson, a man with no self-doubt, no empathy, no conscience. Ferguson is very like the Blair creature in that all the suffering and loss caused directly by them is dismissable as collateral damage.
Any decent human being would quietly retire from public life after mistakes of this magnitude, but this pair return like a pair of shitty boomerangs, ever-ready to committ the next mistake. In ferguson’s case, the tens of thousands who were supposed to die from Mad Cow Disease, once again necessitating the wholesale slaughter of entire herds, many of which were prize-winning and had been lovingly bred over generations by dedicated farmers, and who now lost everything. Ferguson didn’t lose anything though, not even his job.
Even so,it takes a special kind of stupid to go on and on employing such useless specimens.
Interesting. I see there is a very nicely drawn graph with lots of data points and helpful colour coding. I would love to offer some erudite analysis to add to the debate, but instead I’m going to say that I despise those bastards in SAGE. It’s not very insightful I know, but I feel much better now, thank you for reading.
Vent away Boomer Bloke, it’s s been a truism since the start of Covid that everything that SAGE has to say is diametrically wrong. I had high hopes when first hearing of Independent(?) SAGE but they just get things even worse, not unlike the Labour party when it supports new Government Covid restrictions.
Independent SAGE are still apparently calling for online teaching?!
It clearly hasn’t occurred to these retards that the massive increase in positive test of teachers took place while the schools were closed. I know of two incidents of teachers spreading the sniffles between themselves while socialising over Christmas.
Citizen. You are showing disturbing signs of doubleplus ungood logical thought. Please report to your local re-education centre. You appointment has been booked Your attendance is expected.
The BluePill – you are a reactionary element; you are sentenced to 5 years political reeducation in the Islington Gulag….
Your comment led me to look up independent SAGE for the first time. Un-fucking-believable. They want all 5-11 year olds to be ‘vaccinated’, and they want masks in the classroom. My sister, a covidiot with a PhD(!) told me at Christmas that she got most of her info from them (in an attempt to find a broader info than MSM). It explains a lot.
Independent SAGE is run by those who think SAGE is too soft. The Pol Pots in relation to the SAGE Bolsheviks.
Michie is the most extreme of all of them – e.g:
https://www.ucl.ac.uk/news/headlines/2021/jun/face-masks-should-continue-forever
This interview was the exact reason why I stopped wearing a face covering on the next day: Michie admitting that this was just a hobby-horse of hers and never really related to COVID. I still fondly remember standing in a slow-moving supermarket queue with the usual flashes of errant pain all over my body which go along with reduced oxygen intake and – also as usually – wondering whether I could stand this for yet another time instead of freaking out completely. I then remembered the interview and suddenly thought “Am I mad? Why am I self-harming just because this stupid, old cow wants this?” and pulled the damn thing off.
You don’t get info from Sage. You get bias, propaganda , lies and misinformation. You get real info from “the daily scepfic”- that’s why we read it. It’s theo ly thing that keeps us sane.
I call for death by hanging of all member’s of indipendent SMERSH…sorry SAGE.
There has to be something more appropriate as punishment. Something that “would let the punishment fit the crime”. Suggestions???
You speak for many, Boomer Bloke.
Your comment made me feel much better, Boomer. Cheers!
“questions are now being asked about why SAGE’s modellers – and England’s Chief Medical Officer – were so dismissive of the evidence from South Africa three weeks ago showing Omicron was “very, very mild” and wouldn’t result in a big uptick in hospital admissions.”
If the SAGE scientists had watched the interviews – plural, nota bene – which GB News did with the South African doctor who discovered Omicron and had listened to what she had to say about her experience and observations of it then we would be in a totally different place right now.
She said, and I quote almost verbatim here, that it was so mild that “patients” were presenting to her with no discernible symptoms and only found out they had it when they did a test. It was so mild that she could not even identify what the parameters would be to require her to refer someone to hospital with it, and out of something like in excess of 90 patients she had seen early on in the Omicron wave, none of them had been referred to hospital.
Their arrogance and the fact, likely, that they are so drunk on their own power, as you would be if you are regarded as “the science” behind the UK government’s policy, is why they were so dismissive of the South African evidence.
We would not have had the damaged christmas, for families and the hospitality industry, and we would not have had the casedemic which has blighted the new term for schools, staffing the NHS, transport etc if they had paid heed to what was being reported in SA.
Questions do indeed need to be asked.
BTW – OT, but deserving of a mention. Huge shout out to Mark Dolan on GB News for his extensive monologue last night covering the exchange between the ICU anaesthetist and the health secretary. His script for this could have been culled from the DS BTL comments in recent articles on the subject.
They had no need to watch the interviews because none of this is anything to do with a virus.
And to Neil Oliver for getting Mike Yeadon to explain in stark detail what SARS COV2 is all about…and to refuse to engage with ex Labour Sin (sic) Doctor for her anecdotal “evidence” – what does she not get about the oft made statement ( not least by Fauci FFS) that asymptomatic spreading does NOT drive the spread (NB, he does not say asymptomatic spreading does NOT exist – we all know how that can happen at the margins of increasing via load in an infected person). I had started to fear GBNews was morphing into ITV/SKY “Lite” – Farage, Oliver, Dolan and others have put a stop to that.
Does the throwaway line “left leaning” hide the real reason for their control freakery and Stalinist attitudes? God rot Michie and all her acolytes
Has bozo stopped listening to their mumbo jumbo?
It is ironic that Boris ‘son of a eugenecist’ Johnson said “mumbo jumbo“:
“There might be thought to be more than a hint of racial stereotyping in use of this phrase today. The casually racist belief in the gullibility of the supposedly childlike fuzzy-wuzzies was widespread when this term was coined, and it hasn’t shaken that off.”
The English have the Johnsons, the Welsh the Drakefords, the Scots, the Sturgeons. What an amazing indicator of the state of UK politics.
Johnson’s use of that phrase reminded me of the time when Wiltshire County Council banned a charity from all council owned property simply because someone from the charity used the expression ‘jungle drums’ in a discussion!
One black woman in the gallery complained that the phrase was racist!
Maybe we should complain and get Johnson banned!
Funny the so-called experts got it wrong.
Because we didn’t.
But I suppose we are experts – at detecting bullshit.
exactly – that is our superpower!
One of my favourite placards at one of the London protests in the summer was ‘WE’RE THE ONES YOU FAILED TO FOOL”
Loved that.
My favourite placard in London at the end of April 2021 was:
“GOOD PEOPLE BREAK BAD RULES”
Sorry to bang on, but at times recently GB News has really sustained me, and at the end of his monologue last night Dolan said that mandating the jabs just isn’t defensible because “the virus isn’t bad enough and the jabs aren’t good enough”
A remarkable thing to hear. Emperors new clothes territory. And our OG gansta Dr Mike Yeadon was also on GB News yesterday from his hideout in Central America. Ultimately the tide is turning and profit motives will increasingly allow hitherto heretical views to seep in to mainstream discourse. My next worry (I mean, I’ve got be worried about something) is what they’ll do to distract everyone from the tsunami of fury that awaits those responsible. Anyway, I’ll bring the popcorn!
I find that there are some people who have extremely good bullshit detectors – they almost immediately smell bullshit when it emerges – then there are those for whom it takes little while but eventually they smell the bullshit too – but then there are those who wouldn’t see bullshit even if it walked up and slapped them hard in the face – they are usually very obedient types who will never question any amount of bullshit that is being fed to them even if the bullshit is so obvious and makes absolutely no sense at all they will still swallow the bullshit whole – you will usually find those with poor bullshit detectors queueing up outside an NHS drop-in centres for their umpteenth clotshot because the NHS app on their iPhone has told them them must.
I can always smell bullshit when it emerges – never made me very popular in my corporate career as many get to the level of their own incompetence entirely on bull shit (and amazingly a few beyond…)
Agree, me too. I became known before I (gladly) left the corporate world (stuffed with idiots) for calling out the bullshit. They put it down to me being Northern, but really it is just because I have a brain and am not afraid to use it…
Real actual management bs
“Do we have enough runway to land this? I can get it on train tracks and manage it with swimlanes”
Same story here, Quizzical. I’d be a lot richer and smell a lot shittier if I could keep my mouth shut.
Yes , the ones that “wouldn’t see bullshit if it walked up and slapped them hard in the face” are the same types that never get dry humour , a sarcastic joke or a play on words . It’s clown jokes only for these types hence the current circus.
‘Astrology’!
I note from the full article, the modelers are claiming they were making ‘scenarios’ not ‘predictions’ and their work was ‘used in the wrong way’
Actually, checking my horoscope for today, Russell Grant tells me that ‘Getting back to the hobbies and sports you used to enjoy will boost your confidence and improve your health’ which is probably a lot more useful than most government advice…perhaps there is something in it after all?
Astrologers have two rules: 1. be vague, (2)don’t tell people what they don’t want to hear.
If people no longer want to hear ‘Be very afraid, hide under the bed, stop living’, then the stars must be doing a good job.
Have you read the Met office weather forecasts recently – they even have diametrically different written narrative from the pictures in the summary very often?
Indeed. I took MET and BBC to task – here’s a little bit of research I penned back in 2013:
https://public-highway.blogspot.com/2013/01/rainmasterall-since-records-began.html
And several months later, the MET Office put out a very public statement that they will not release any data to anyone who does not have “the appropriate credentials”.
appropriate credentials i.e. won’t show they tell massive lies
I dare say Piers Corbyn’s weather forecasts are more reliable. I understanding he was barred from the bidding process when the MET office lost the BBC contract
I’d have said there was a third too – word it in such a way that it will be nearly impossible to say for sure whether it actually happened, to try to avoid being demonstrably wrong!
Then why didn’t they point this out? If they did, but were ignored, they should have resigned rather than endanger life.
Arse-covering 101
“we woz only following (govt) orders (to not create
predictionsscenarios that weren’t scary)” doesn’t wash any longer.o/t. Attached is the top comment from yesterdays DS report of the Daily Mail article about Glasgows anti-lockdown/vaccine march.
The commenter is saying that the reason for recent mass protests in Kazakhstan is that their government was denying access to bank accounts without having a vax passport.
Any idea if this is true? Every report I read has said it was because domestic fuel prices were doubled overnight.
This is a good overview Karen… and why Vlad cannot let the Kazakhstan unraveling continue…
https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/why-kazakhstan-crisis-much-bigger-deal-western-media-letting
Interesting fact….note Russia celebrates Xmas on the 7th Jan…
10% held for the BIG guy….
Thanks for that interesting report but it does not address whether Kazakhstan’s unrest was sparked by Government denying people access to their own money without digital ID passport, the endgame of introducing vaxports in the UK and elsewhere.
I’m not aware vaxx passports are a thing in Kazakhstan…
However almost 90% of vehicles in the western region run on LPG. That is a higher proportion than in many other parts of Kazakhstan… and a few weeks back prices doubled with no warning.
Though that is the zone where LPG is sourced… hence oil & gas workers went bat shit… as per usual tis geopols and ragging inequality…triggering mass angst.
https://www.wfdd.org/story/theres-chaos-kazakhstan-heres-what-you-need-know
Vlad will go in to stabilize assets located there that mother Russia depends on uranium and a key component of its rocket/ballistics program…
Its Muslim majority too needs to be kept in check….instability leaches unless nipped in the bud. Which is why any protests here will mimic Australia when the darker sanctions get fed in come summer.
Most (75%) of the mineral mining facilities are owned by western corporations, who export the profits as well as the minerals. That is why mineral rich Kazakhstan is deperately poor. The official leader of the protests is a fugitive banker and ex finance minister, currently residing in Ukraine. He probably had a hand in setting up the resource exploitation deals.
As for the muslim majority, they are no problem. The real problem lies with the radicalised ex-ISIS members shipped in from Syria (probably via Turkey which appears to have receive $10 billion ‘out of thin air’ saving its collapsing currency). These goons like to decapitate their victims.
Vlad the Injector?
Oops
I got the impression it was about the sharp increase in LPG prices from twitter buzz,
The gas prices vary from region to region and from use to use. The highest increase was a doubling of car gas in Almaty, the southern regional capital.
The Kazakhstan events were all planned and decribed in this 2019 RAND report. Kazakhstan is a standard CIA-run regime change operation, funded by the usual suspects, following the same playbook as in Venezuela, Ukraine, Libya, Syria, Belarus … hijack legitimate protests in the hope of getting a fully pro-western stooge in place. Kazakhstan should be wealthy as it has massive mineral resources, but the mining rights are largely (75%) held by outside corporations who export the profits as well as the minerals. The official leader of the protests is a fugitive banker and ex finance minister now in residing in Ukraine. He will be declared by the US to be the recognised leader of the country (cf Guaido and Venezuela). Any Kazkh gold held in the UK ‘for safe keeping’ will be passed on to this guy, less a suitable commission of course.
The UK government has also recently spent $1.3 billion trying to instigate similar events in Russia.
The third part of the leaked Foreign Office documents. Why did Britain invest $ 1.3 billion in Russia?
Why did the UK invest in GAVI…..?
Don’t recall a Tory manifesto committing a future Tory administration to funding an unaccountable Swiss based organisation hell bent on world domination by vaccination…
If there is one lesson to be learned
from all this it is that ‘modelling’ is now wholly discredited as a planning tool. Presumably, the raft of climate modellers currently feasting on tax payers cash can now be given their P45’s.
Unlikely I know.
But HOW unlikely, exactly? I’m sure we could construct a model for that (given sufficient funding)
Funding allows the Met Office to renew its ‘biggest computer in Europe’ every two years.
As you approach their offices outside Exeter on the A30 there are two large white buildings in the new Science Park on the right. They contain much of the hard drive though most of it is underground.
The Met Office itself does not support, model or predict Climate Change, it merely provides the raw data that does.
Are you sure? This is directly from the Met Office site.
The climate is changing, and the UK needs to act. Part of this involves playing a leading role in global efforts to mitigate climate change by reducing emissions including implementing and delivering our own net zero target. Even given strenuous efforts to limit the cause of global warming, further climatic changes are inevitable in the future and the UK will need to manage the growing risks from climate change. To adapt and build resilience, up-to-date, credible and robust information on climate change and variability is needed to inform decision-making. UKCP18 is the latest generation of national climate projections for the United Kingdom and will provide users with the most recent scientific evidence on projected climate changes with which to plan.
Followed by 7 pages of predictions!
They have clearly changed their mission statement since last I read it.
They used to claim to be Climate Chsnge neutral !
I would love to see the govt’s plan to stop the sun cycling between sunspot activity and quiet periods, a major influencer of our climate. Boris Canute??
Maybe it’s time to allow “non-scientists” – educated people from “common sense” disciplines – to influence modelling?
In short: the sceptics, critical thinkers, and US (the general bloody public).
jesus wept! anyone could have told them as soon as they said it that they would be wrong – because THEY HAVE BEEN WRONG ABOUT EVERYTHING ELSE THEY’VE EVER SAID!!!
there must be serious consequences for such abject failure!
The failure is that those in power listened to them.
This occurred because those in power surround themselves with ‘yes men’. Thus the people who make the mistake can advise the government that they had the very best possible advice and that the mistake was because ‘there are so many unknowns’. The advisers won’t tell government about the other models that don’t get things so terribly wrong.
Note that this is reflected across all scientific advice given to government, including advice on the importance of universal vaccination, vaccination of children, facemask effectiveness, vaccine effectiveness, the role of vitamin D, repurposed therapeutics, etc, etc.
However, politicians are too used to dealing in a land where there is only opinion, not verifiable facts — whether a given policy works or fails usually depends on how you look at it. Medical science, however, can be verified — eventually we will know the net impact of different covid mitigations.
So we need political reform to encourage veracity in public life, the de-politicisation of science, and the separation of different spheres of endeavour to avoid conflation and multiplication of error.
Yes, plus Tucker/Sotomayor above: they regard us as machines.
Doesn’t help one iota when the PM is in league with then married to a one eyed green monster who is so indispensable she has to attend working lunches, as part of her “without portfolio” brief, irrespective of the NPI’s she clearly doesn’t believe in when in private. A virtual signalling harriden before her “time”… .
should whitty have the knighthood removed for being so wrong about Omicron? Wonder how many bars and restaurants shut down over Christmas never to re-open because they couldn’t afford to after that.
No, but he should for the untruths he has uttered ( partial data as “whole” fact during Number 10 Press briefings, NHS advert statement) not least the bollocks he stated about missed Cancer etc treatments NOT being a facet of lockdowns ( ?”…..a reverse of the truth…?).
Their record is as bad as it can be.
Their models are wrong at a fundamental level; this has been clear since spring 2020 and I don’t know why anyone listens to them.
They are politically, intellectual and emotionally unable to grasp the concept of sunk costs. You can almost hear them sitting around the cabinet table saying, ‘we’ve spent/invested/wasted all this money on our covid policy/strategy/nudging, we have to keep going
We used to call sunk costs ‘money down the drain’.
And we used to say Don’t throw good money after bad.’
where I come from we still do!
Why should they worry? They have been on 100% salary (plus expenses?) throughout making good political connections.
I think they are very good at being susceptible to the sunk-cost fallacy, but genetically incapable to assess and incorporate collateral damage and as such net benefit/cost.
And it’s not their money, so why should they care!
When taxes rise to pay for it all the Covidians will doubtless be outraged because they didn’t see this coming a mile off…
The reason the government listens to SAGE is because their sole task is to dream up worst case scenarios to justify government policy as exposed by Fraser Nelson’s twitter exchange with Prof Graham Medley.
SAGE >Carrie>Bozo…
What bothers me about all the talk of omicron being so mild, is that all the insane measures taken against the original “lethal” variants remain justified in the minds of most people.
If anything comes from Omicron, it is that the original over estimation of how quickly Covid spreads being a rationale for restrictions is now completely exposed as lies.
I also still think the first “wave” was from September 2019 and no one even noticed. It was only when they started looking that they found.
100% bang on
and correct me if I am wrong but wasn’t the modelling for the original “lethal” wuflu a bit on the wrong side too?
It seems to me that the ‘credit’ being given to Johnson for ‘resisting the doom-mongers’ calls for more restrictions’ is ludicrous and itself somewhat hysterical. Johnson was under clear pressure due to events within his own party. The revealing of Lord Frost’s resignation, combined with the revolt from around 100 Tory MPs, pretty much had the tyrant backed into a corner. I’d suggest that self-preservation, rather than a sense of what was morally and rationally correct, was behind Johnson’s decision not to impose harsher restrictions.
He has survived this long only due to the censorship and propaganda he has wielded, which shielded him from scrutiny. In normal conditions, the resistance would have won totally ages ago, owing to proper exposure in the MSM, political attacks from opposition and less politeness from our ‘rebels’, and input from the public.
He deserves no credit for his incompetence, lethargy, cruelty, arrogance and constant lies. His political project has failed and was always a cynical mirage.
Yep, my view exactly.
How can Dr. Davies say reports that Omicron being less severe were ‘anecdotal’ when South Africa data as early as 25th Nov showed a divergence between exponential case growth and deaths / ICU admittance? This takes either a special type of stupidity or wilful bias.
By December 11th when this rubbish was published the data in SA was nailed down solid.
Do these people have no shame?
There were media reports of a South African variant back in Feb 2021 … which seemed to disappear from the news … only to reappear at a politically convenient time in Decmber 2021. The UK regime needs some excuse every 3 weeks to keep the scam going (cf the 1984 Public Health Act on which all of this is pinned). Hence the recent extension of 3 weeks based on absolutely bugger all. ALl it does is give the mad modellers more time to come up with more BS.
The 1984 Act establishes the idea of a state of emergency in response to a ‘significant and imminent’ threat. This threat has to be reassessed every 3 weeks to allow the state of emergency to continue. How on earth something as vague as a ‘variant of concern’ can be considered ‘significant and imminent’ is beyond me, especially when their existence seems to be known months in advance time after time. Why on earth haven’t Sumption and the rest called the government out on this blatant abuse of power?
https://web.archive.org/web/20211126173158/https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2021/07/how-scientists-detect-new-covid-19-variants/
Omicron has been in existence before July last year.
Yes, on reading ‘anecdotal’ my eyebrows went walkabout.
It’s great isn’t it? They can paint stuff any colour they like. They quite happily cite their ‘observational studies’ as a basis for restrictions in schools. On the other hand, the mass of observational/anecdotal evidence (Ivermectin, masks, etc, etc) ….
WHO was recently warning “don’t call Omnicon mild” that because of the sheer numbers of people catching highly contagious Omnicon health services worldwide were still being ‘ overwhelmed’.
Another interpretation would be that “despite huge numbers of people now contracting covid/Omnicon the variant is so mild that health services worldwide are facing no more pressure than usual for the time of year.
Additionally the vast majority of people who emerge unscathed will now have some level of protection from future infection which is itself a cause for celebration”
Fat chance.
The government chooses it’s advisors and the remit to the modellers.
The government are listening to the wrong advisors and the wrong modellers.
The blame lays squarely with the government with their only saving grace being they could have made the situation even worse than they did already.
There’s still time to make it worse. More jabs are coming. Also, the ‘covid state’ will take years to dismantle. There needs to be separation between scientists and politicians to avoid this happening again. De-politicisation coupled with a plurality of voices in science must be the way to go. Maybe in future a committee of mixed-opinions should be placed above or alongside the PM to help plan and resolve a true crisis.
There is a carefully contructed circle of denial of responsibility. The buck is passed round and round the circle ad infinitum.
Then there will be the inevitable Inquiry with a very narrow remit led by a safe pair of hands to announce that “Mistakes were made. Lessons have been learned. It is time to move on”.
We need a separation between scientists and big pharma money, a separation between governments and big pharma, and a separation between billionaires and governments. The system is utterly corrupted.
very well said
Not to fear
Right on cue ‘Deltacron’ arrives
Omicron-Delta ‘hybrid’ gets sinister name — RT World News
What doesn’t kill you makes you strong.
The biggest load of homespun bollocks ever uttered; if you don’t know why, I suggest you shut up.
Big clue: ask. e.g, Afghanistan/Iraq veterans to explain….
May be the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine should just stick to tropical medicine
Why qualify it to just “about omicron”?
When have the Doom Priests been right about anything?
Given that the legislation approving of the vax passports was based on these bullshit predictions will they be reversing the imposition of this disgusting authoritarian abuse?
No need to answer.
Headline typo fixed:
“SAGE Gloomsters Admit They Were Wrong”
Can we now get round to suing the sh*t out of them for damage willfully caused?
Best ever advice I took was when in an interview with Mike Yeadon just before (or just after) the jabs were being rolled out across the UK he encouraged people not to rush into getting the jab – don’t have the jab just so that you can go to the pub again or tavel abroad – be patient and wait a few months and see what happens before accepting the jab offer. Well, I waited and after a few months and reading about the side-effects and possibly even deaths linked to the vaccine and then witnessing those side-effects first-hand among family and friends I decided to refuse the offer and the longer this jabbing madness has gone on the more I’m convinced that I made the right decision thanks to Mike Yeadon.
Mike Yeadon 5min video interview with GB News worth watching before it gets taken down by Youtube.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PVGDZ2oowfU&t=82s
#me too
Don’t forget this is only half the interview- the vaccine bit is redacted, so view the whole thing on the complete show upload – scroll to 19.27 if you missed the live show
So GB News is self-censoring? A pity. I wish they’d let Youtube do any censoring, then loudly complain that YT can’t abide free speech whereas GB News believes in it.
didn’t see that last night so thanks for posting.
The Scientists have tried similar things with foot & mouth, where they did actually almost a destroy an industry, bird flu and then Aids, all to bring in funding. We need some stringent Rules, Laws, whatever, to stop governments allowing this to happen with impunity
https://brownstone.org/articles/why-is-the-human-being-not-like-a-machine/
The deeper problem with the modelers and those who listen to them was exposed yesterday by Justice Sotomayor: they primarily regard us as being machines, not humans.
The “modellers” always over-egg the pudding, whatever the circumstances or what they may be modelling. I guess it’s in the nature of these people to predict Armageddon, and then bashfully admit they might have got it a bit wrong. Just arse-covering and theatrics, really.
Then, of course, we now know for a fact that they model scenarios either to order or to fulfil expectations of people who receive them e.g. dumb politicians, corrupt and ineffectual media bodies and the rest of the gallimaufry of “interested parties”. Cuddly, optimistic (realistic) models won’t put the fear of God into the huddled masses, so something a bit stiffer is called for.
If it weren’t serious, it would be a complete joke. Where are today’s Tom Sharpes and Kingsley Amises to put this farrago into enduring words?
Just got a phone call from the NHS, flogging off vaccines. At least they had the decency to wait till Shabbat had ended, but I still wasn’t buying.
were they offering you BOGOF
Any bell’s ringing in the hall’s of power yet?….is there fuck! Because it’s all planned, subjugation and Totalitarianism is the name of the game. Anybody still think it’s about a public health emergency?
Police stand down to avoid confrontation with big protest crowds in Luxembourg.
https://twitter.com/thejuggernaut88/status/1479947849940946944?s=21
Good to see
They let it go because they saw they have no chance. Not because they want to cooperate. Unfortunately.
Is this not the point where we all simply laugh in their faces – Ceaucescu style? Then watch the bastards run like rats off a sinking ship…. it is beyond farce and they need to know they are fooling no-one who has any sense.
Maybe Neil Oliver could tee up an interview then as they start to spout their rubbish play the chorus from The Laughing Policeman
Remember to block the Mall, because that’s where a light plane can land and take off.
Thanks – insider info always welcome
Instant Karma …
https://twitter.com/OzraeliAvi/status/1480042600388128771
Love this ….
Testmania
Mixed messages are going out in Britain today about testmania. Is it about to be called off, at least for the time being? Or will it continue? Who knows?
Perhaps somebody is about to ask “Where did all those billions of pounds actually go?” Let’s hope so. Apparently £6bn has been
spentpocketed on the production, distribution and administration of the tests themselves, not counting all the consequential damages which may well have cost even more. I don’t think the £500 payments are included in the £6bn figure either, so the actual “cost” could easily have been £10bn or £20bn so far.In one month – 10 or 20 billion pounds. Whooooosh! That would be huge even for a weapons contract supplied over several years. The “health” sector is much bigger than “defence” (in both Britain and the US), but still, this is biiiiig. That size of contract or group of contracts will certain come with a large PR expenditure, whatever the sector.
From a behavioural conditioning point of view, the critical assessment must surely be that testmania has been a great success. Millions of people get told “Put a stick up your nose to see whether you’ve got the lergy”, and millions of people neurotically rush to get sticks and stuff them up their noses, their attention riveted on a little white plastic gadget as if it were the latest codswallop on Facebook or Google’s Youtube. Is there any sign that a proportion of the testmaniacs have applied their reasoning and decided they were a bit wrong to be so gullible? Any sign that they wouldn’t act the same way again? Any sign that they have learnt anything other than to behave THIS WAY when they receive THIS KIND OF STIMULUS?
I submit that there has been no noticeable level of “extinction”, to use a behavioural science term.
And next time, the behaviour that is encouraged may well be significantly different.
Another public step in the oh-so-gradual walkback.
If I was the chief clown, I’d make sure that there are plenty of “we over-estimated” and “we only wanted to protect citizens” quotes from the Whitty/Vallance/Sage/UKHSA brigade. The health secretary has already made sure that everyone knows they’re not his decisions, that he takes “advice from experts” in that Kings consultant/Sky video that everyone and his dog must have seen by now.
Sajid Jabit wasn’t walking back when he attempted to discredit Steve James Consultant Anaesthetist with a doubling down jab promotion piece in today’s Mail on Sunday.
Haven’t seen (and won’t) the MoS piece, but I did go and look at the Mail Online’s piece on the MoS piece (strained, I know) having seen your reply. It’s full of known-to-be-nonsense, like ‘90% of ITU patients are unjabbed’, that Jabbit’s boss has had to retract. God knows who wrote Jabbit’s drivel for him. No-one believes that anymore, not even MoS readers.
I did post elsewhere that the walkback will be glacial … two steps forward, at least one and a half back, certainly to begin with. It’ll have to be if they don’t want to be lynched.
Sorry if I’m a glass half full sort of person.
I don’t wish to denigrate GP’s, the NHS, scientists or the public but I know a lot of people who, even before covid19 was flagged up, would have been on the phone to their GP at the drop of a hat if they discovered so much as a spot on their bum. What surprises me is that anyone was surprised by the government’s usual ‘you caught us completely off guard again’ response to contain the spread of this nonsense. I really wonder, in this instantly connected day and age, whether we’re expecting too much from a bunch of people who at the best of times seem completely incapable of managing or running things in any coherent manner. They must themselves question why they still exist, I certainly do. We need to find a new way to manage our affairs without them, asap.
Pills vs Lifestyle
Presumably the downtick is from a fatty.
Do we deduce that Boris is now aware of the source of all the mumbo jumbo?
Anyone seen Susan michie
Here it is!
What a revolting looking bint. But as she’s a champagne communist I guess that doesn’t matter?
These ‘modelers’ must be the ‘experts’ that asswipe Javid thinks know better than highly qualified medics.
Here’s an “anecdotal report” for you, SAGE:
Among the hundreds of acquaintances of the 10 adults in our immediate family we know of only one death from Covid, suffered by an obese diabetic man who was denied proper treatment early in 2020.
In contrast, we know over a dozen healthy, active persons who have died suddenly, strangely, and inexplicably, shortly after getting the shots. And a half dozen others who have precipitously slipped into their dotage, come out of cancer remission, or developed an autoimmune disease.
Chart Title “Number of infections etc”
Pie in the sky given this
https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/926410/Understanding_Cycle_Threshold__Ct__in_SARS-CoV-2_RT-PCR_.pdf
“RT-PCR detects presence of viral genetic material in a sample but is not able to
distinguish whether infectious virus is present. The quantity of intact virus in upper
respiratory swabs will be affected by factors that are endogenous and exogenous to
laboratory methods.”
Exactly. Just to emphasise (as it has been in the actual document), “…but is not able to distinguish whether infectious virus is present.”
And there you have it. The government admission of the whole covid fraud exposed in less than one sentence.
Just let that sink in.
“SAGE Gloomsters.” That’s cute.
Let’s not make light of the destruction they’ve wrought. Purposely wrought.
Also, let’s not make light of the authorities who blindly followed the advice of these shysters, the media which egged them on with fear porn, the pharma companies and their tame politicians, the medical establishment that said nothing (or worse, who cheered) when the long established pandemic protocols were swept aside in a second, the giant finance companies who pulled the strings in the background …
Very similar going on in Australia now. Here is the NSW data.
I just realized that the ‘case’ rate in NSW (population ~8 million) is roughly double that of the UK! Yay us!
About everything – as planned.
Our healthcare system is about to experience a tsunami! Potential side effects of jabs include chronic inflammation, because the vaccine continuously stimulates the immune system to produce antibodies. Other concerns include the possible integration of plasmid DNA into the body’s host genome, resulting in mutations, problems with DNA replication, triggering of autoimmune responses, and activation of cancer-causing genes. Alternative COVID cures EXIST. Ivermectin is one of them. While Ivermectin is very effective curing COVID symptoms, it has also been shown to eliminate certain cancers. Do not get the poison jab. Get your Ivermectin today while you still can! https://ivmpharmacy.com
All computer models say what they are programmed to say. Models are not magic working crystal balls. The model designers/programmers wanted a frightening result, so that’s what they coded the models to produce.
“Rubbish in, garbage out”
And the idiots in Government were scared shitless so they chose to listen to an organisation that had been catastrophically wrong with all their forecasts on foot and mouth, BSE, SARS, Bird flu etc.
It’s more likely they weren’t scared by any modelled scenarios but actively promoted them and used them to justify the draconian restrictions preceding the vaxx programme. It is the funding behind the depts producing these outrageously overblown projections which reveals the global actors pulling the levers. Nothing has happened because the government were scared in to it.
Maybe it’s just that their assigned role is to be fatalistic and wrong – so that bozo can “outshine” them and appear as pursuing a “measured response”. I mean, that would be a mutually beneficial arrangement.
Why change the habit of a Pandemic?
They’ve been wrong about everything every time.
However it suited Johnson Javid (a very dangerous big reset man) Gove ect to carry on fearmongering and laying down restrictions.
Easier to govern that way without scrutiny and they will of course be lining their pockets whatever happens.
They’ve been wrong about everything else too
Should Imperial College refund the £millions received in fees from government for this erroreous work as well as for BSE, Foot and mouth, SARS and MERS?
Parliament, with the exception of the Covid Recovery Group abdicated its scrutiny function from the start of the pandemic. These models are deeply flawed and have led to unnecessary restrictions and hardships being introduced across the globe. Most implausable of all was the idea that thousands of deaths could have been prevented “if only we had locked down sooner”. A lie endorsed by Jeremy Hunt’s incompetent Health Select Committee among others. It is essential that these mathematical models are deconstructed and exposed for what they are: wild guesswork if we are to avoid a similar situation ever happening again.
The graph showing weekly moving average cases down by 6.7 percent does not tell the whole story. In a game where a day matters a seven day moving average is by definition three and a half days late and if that average is delayed three days to enable full data gathering and there is a further day late in publication the figures will be almost meaningless. The day on day figures for my part of Scotland show a drop of almost a half. The figures for Scotland as a whole are over 50%
“Wolf, wolf! there’s a big, bad wolf ……. run and hide.”
“yeah, wotever.”
Fixed that for you
The “woollen” jumpsuit of SARS COV2 government responses is unravelling daily, e.g. Aussie retired medic slaughtering in print his State’s Labor (sic) Minister, ONS et al data showing this is now all about jabbed infecting the rest, Government Ministers lying about the incidence of jabbed WITH CV19 vs unjabbed in ICU using demonstrably out of date data and La Dorries using a minutely representative data set and extrapolating it to the WHOLE NHS with no explanation how she reaches that conclusion, acceptance that Omicron is EXACTLY as described by the SA Doctor, Joel Smalley and his fellow Statos shredding the CMO/CSO/SAGE “official” interpretation, GB News interviewing Robert Malone and Mike Yeadon, NHS unjabbed Consultant giving Javed an object lesson in “vaccination” verisimilitude….
And now we “hear” that from March, “things” will be very very different.
Not the most insightful comment but PREDICTION: Nudge Unit and SAGE will be rewriting history and their previous criminality to demonstrate how well their policy decisions “worked”…watch for articles, TV adverts and the like …”getting their witness statements in early”.
“Dr. Davies argued that while South African doctors were already finding Omicron appeared to be less severe, the reports were “anecdotal” so the School of Hygiene’s supposition was ‘a reasonable assumption to make at the time'”. And that’s the critical point, that the modelers dismissed evidence, when it should be the other way round, with evidence dismissing the models. It has been like this all the way through, with models, ‘belief’, money and power being dominant over evidence and rationality. None of the the govt’s (or oppositions, or media’s) pandemic responses have been driven or even guided by rational thought.
If you ASSUME you make an ASS out of U and ME
They’re NOT ”cases”.
And obsessive testing has slowed down. The addicts must be running around like headless chickens.
Nothing will change until these public sector people are subject to the same analysis, performance measurements and sanctions as the private sector. Most normal people would be fired for this level of incompetence and ineptitude.
At the very least Whitty, Vallance, Ferguson etc should publicly apologise for their errors. Whitty is personally responsible for massive losses of income and perhaps some bankruptcies over Christmas by scaring people into staying away and cancelling Christmas parties based on inaccurate and plainly wrong scaremongering. If he and the others faced sanctions they would be more careful with their forecasts.
AND they should be MADE to acknowledge publicly their conflicts of interest. I mean ”publicly” – not just some obscure ”well, yeah, okay, a few shares – whoh’evah” sort of thing.
Answer to recent email to MP pointing out the undeniable fact that his – several times stated and still seemingly unwavering – support for this Governments SARS COV2 policies is no longer tenable and citing what that is, and has been so.
This is the reply: has anyone else had this or similar? And this is a person who has personally and financially profited from his supply and ancillary actions by being promoted a while ago to PuSoS….ie. salary increase….
“Hello,
Thank you for your email regarding Covid-19 measures.
It is something I have received a lot of emails on over recent weeks, across the spectrum in terms of differing views and opinions. Ranging from some who would like a complete removal of any and all measures, to others who support the introduction of more measures and possible lockdowns.
As such, it is unlikely I or the Government will be able to satisfy all concerns with this response and the actions taken, but I will set out my own thoughts and position on this.
I support measures which are proportionate and balanced, which take account of the status of the virus and the impact this is having.
Key to understanding this is not only looking at the number of cases, but also the seriousness of these cases in terms of the subsequent levels of hospitalisations and deaths we are seeing. This helps us to understand in more detail, what impact the virus is having on the population and also on the NHS.
With the arrival of Omicron at the end of last year, it was important to respond as we ascertained the severity of this variant and possible impacts it might have. This resulted in travel restrictions being placed at short notice between the UK and countries with higher risk.
As further data has emerged from the UK and abroad, it has become apparent the strain is not as severe as initially feared – particularly when opting for the booster vaccine to offer greater protection.
As such, the Government took the decision to avoid introducing further measures in England, thought he devolved administrations took a different view on this.
Having analysed the data closely over Christmas and into the new year, it is clear that cases continue to remain high due to transmissibility of Omicron, though due to the effectiveness of the vaccine in ameliorating symptoms – we are not in the same position we were in previous waves as the relationship between cases and hospitalisations has been severely weakened. Given the current picture, the Prime Minister confirmed yesterday that additional measures would not be introduced beyond those currently in place, pertaining to working from home where possible, masks and covid passes for large events and nightclubs.
I know the latter is something that some constituents have raised and have concerns over. It is important to note that it is not necessary for people to demonstrate their vaccination status as part of this, as unlike many other countries with similar systems in place, a negative test is sufficient here.
As I say, having received a wide range of emails on this from both sides of the debate I know this may not satisfy everyone’s individual concerns, but hope it is useful in setting out my own view and that of the Government. Targeted, proportionate and balanced measures are what is needed to try and ensure we can go about our daily lives as much as possible, while not allowing the virus to overwhelm our healthcare system. This is something that is being monitored incredibly closely as we have seen some initial pressures being reported, resulting in the cancellation of some routine procedures.”
They refused to accept the info from Angelique Coetzee because a) she is not a member of sage or nervtag and b) because what could the Head of South africa”s health service know about anything? Their arrogance and stupidity their bias and lies have cost ever-y person in the UK very dear both physically, mentally, educationally and economically, but who will take them down.They ought to be barred from ever speaking in public again or giving any opinions
They’ve never got anything right and should be sacked without any compensation.