• Login
  • Register
The Daily Sceptic
No Result
View All Result
  • Articles
  • About
  • Archive
    • ARCHIVE
    • NEWS ROUND-UPS
  • Podcasts
  • Newsletter
  • Premium
  • Donate
  • Log In
The Daily Sceptic
No Result
View All Result

Covid Vaccination Prevented 354,000 Delta Wave Deaths in Japan, Claims Absurd Modelling Study

by Guy Gin
26 October 2023 7:00 AM

Just when I thought I might never have to write about the COVID-19 Pandemic in Japan again, the Nature journal Scientific Reports publishes a hallucinogenically ludicrous counterfactual modelling study co-authored by Hiroshi Nishiura, the Japanese Government’s go-to guy for epidemiological modelling madness.

I didn’t think Nishiura would ever again produce anything as insane as his 2020 prediction of “420,000 dead without social distancing” but it looks like I underestimated him.

Here’s the abstract to the study ‘Evaluating the COVID-19 vaccination program in Japan, 2021 using the counterfactual reproduction number‘ (emphasis added).

Japan implemented its nationwide vaccination program against COVID-19 in 2021, immunising more than one million people (approximately 1%) a day. However, the direct and indirect impacts of the programme at the population level have yet to be fully evaluated. To assess the vaccine effectiveness during the Delta variant (B.1.617.2) epidemic in 2021, we used a renewal process model. A transmission model was fitted to the confirmed cases from February 17th to November 30th 2021. In the absence of vaccination, the cumulative numbers of infections and deaths during the study period were estimated to be 63.3 million (95% confidence interval [CI] 63.2-63.6) and 364,000 (95% CI 363-366), respectively; the actual numbers of infections and deaths were 4.7 million and 10,000, respectively… We demonstrated the very high effectiveness of COVID-19 vaccination in Japan during 2021, which reduced mortality by more than 97% compared with the counterfactual scenario.

Put simply, Nishiura et al. input a load of outlandish assumptions into their model to make it estimate that without the jabs, about 50% of the population would have been infected and 0.3% of the population would have died of Covid during the Delta wave alone. The nicest thing I can say is that they clearly omitted the assumption that Japan’s 100% mask rate made a difference.

The authors’ utter unseriousness is evidenced by them including real-world data in the paper that completely refutes the model’s output, such as the below figure from the paper’s supplementary material. The Delta wave is the large second peak in that year – does it look like the jabs prevented 92.6% of possible infections during the Delta wave in summer 2021?

Supplementary Figure S1. Epidemiological background during the primary series of the vaccination program in Japan. (A) Daily number of reported COVID-19 cases from February 17th to November 30th 2021 by age group. (B) Vaccination coverage of the first dose in the same period as Supplementary Figure 1A by age group.

After looking at the above figure, anyone who still regards peer-review as a guarantor of quality might want to consider why neither the authors nor apparently the peer-reviewers bothered to ask the obvious and pertinent question, “Why were cases much lower in the Alpha wave when hardly anyone was jabbed?”

But the paper gets even more delusional. The authors came up with three more counterfactual scenarios with even less realistic results.

If the vaccination program had been conducted 14 days earlier than the actual pace, the peak of daily incidence would have decreased by 73%, i.e., 98,368 infections (or four times the observed) versus 26,149 (95% CI 24,354-27,952) infections in the early schedule scenario. However, if the program had taken place 14 days later than the actual schedule, the peak of daily incidence would have reached 263,220 (95% CI 250,387-276,173) infections, and the maximum daily incidence was estimated to be 33,004 (95% CI 30,996-35,258) infections in the elevated coverage scenario [i.e., higher coverage among people aged 10-59].

The ridiculousness of these estimates is evident from just looking at figure plotting them: the early schedule and extended coverage scenarios are almost identical to the Alpha wave before the jabs were made available to the general population, while the late schedule scenario is about 10 times higher.

Number of infections with SARS-CoV-2 from February 17th to November 30th 2021 according to counterfactual vaccination scenarios. Each line represents a different scenario with 95% confidence intervals highlighted as the light colored area; blue dots denote actual numbers of infections.

The reason for publishing this nonsensical drivel becomes clear in the discussion.

In our elevated coverage scenario (i.e., encouraging more adolescents and people aged 10-59 years to be vaccinated), the total effect was substantial, even when older people were not prioritised for vaccination. This demonstrates that vaccinating younger individuals with substantial transmission potential is a critical strategy in mitigating the magnitude of the epidemic for an entire population, including children aged under 10 years who were not eligible for the vaccination programme.

Basically, by having Nishiura et al. publish a study in a supposedly reputable journal based on a make-believe model that “demonstrates” that jabbing the low-risk young protected the high-risk elderly in summer 2021, future Japanese Governments can point to this study to justify pressuring even more members of younger age groups to take warp speed jabs they don’t need during future viral scares.

It also means Fukuoka City will be able to make vax-sceptics want to puke their guts up again with yet another omoiyari wakuchin (vaccination out of consideration) poster.

One other problem with the idea that 50% of the country would’ve been infected with Delta if not for the glorious jabs is that most of the population was living under states of emergency and quasi-emergency, as advocated by Nishura. Is our rotund public health expert finally admitting that closing restaurants early and masking outdoors in 35-degree heat weren’t quite as effective as he and other experts previously claimed? Hardly.

Additionally, a surge in COVID-19 patients observed in July-September 2021 was the largest epidemic wave ever experienced in Japan, and the corresponding period fell under the state of emergency, which was based on a non-legally binding policy in which the Government requested voluntary restriction of contacts. Were PHSM [public health and social measures] not in place under the state of emergency, the number of infections could have been even greater than the observed number.

So the fourth state of emergency might not have looked very effective, but without it and the jabs, 70% or 80%, even 90% of the country would have been infected!

The pre-determined conclusion of this study can be summed up as follows: “No matter what the real-world data show, our model says the vaccines were magical. The only things we need to do differently next time are rubber stamp the shots’ approval earlier and jab more kids.”

As Covid has dropped out of the headlines, I often wonder if I’ll have anything more to write about. But as long as Nishiura and his ilk keep pumping out garbage like the above study, I guess I’m going to have to keep at it.

This article first appeared on Guy Gin’s Substack page, Making (Covid) Waves in Japan. Subscribe here.

Tags: COVID-19JapanModellingPropagandaThe ScienceVaccinating ChildrenVaccine

Donate

We depend on your donations to keep this site going. Please give what you can.

Donate Today

Comment on this Article

You’ll need to set up an account to comment if you don’t already have one. We ask for a minimum donation of £5 if you'd like to make a comment or post in our Forums.

Sign Up
Previous Post

News Round-Up

Next Post

Winter Death Toll Worst in 30 Years, Reports the BBC. What, Worse Than in the ‘Pandemic’?

Subscribe
Login
Notify of
Please log in to comment

To join in with the discussion please make a donation to The Daily Sceptic.

Profanity and abuse will be removed and may lead to a permanent ban.

8 Comments
Oldest
Newest Most Voted
Inline Feedbacks
View all comments
D J
D J
1 year ago

He is a bought and paid for scientist,who,as you show,is not even competent.
Hat tip for the nom de plume.

42
0
huxleypiggles
huxleypiggles
1 year ago

Is Pantsdown assisting behind the scenes?

48
0
Nearhorburian
Nearhorburian
1 year ago

Interesting that 8 of the 9 models are pale-skinned!

17
0
10navigator
10navigator
1 year ago

Life’s too short to read this tosh!

20
-1
transmissionofflame
transmissionofflame
1 year ago

Only God can “prevent death”. Humans can only postpone (or hasten) it. IMO any claim to “prevent death” is meaningless nonsense. You need to express your claims in terms of quality life years lost.

30
0
wokeman
wokeman
1 year ago

This paper is clearly a crock of excrement yet the science in question is still more respectable than climate modelling.

22
0
GlassHalfFull
GlassHalfFull
1 year ago

I’m sure he was paid handsomely and his career will sky rocket.

18
0
steveandrews
steveandrews
1 year ago

The excess deaths in Japan paint a very different picture than this ludicrous modelling. This type of government sponsored data manipulation needs to be exposed keep up the good work.

6
0

NEWSLETTER

View today’s newsletter

To receive our latest news in the form of a daily email, enter your details here:

DONATE

PODCAST

The Sceptic EP.38: Chris Bayliss on the Commonwealth Voting Scandal, Sarah Phillimore on the Bar’s Scrapped EDI Plans and Eugyppius on ‘White Genocide’

by Richard Eldred
30 May 2025
0

LISTED ARTICLES

  • Most Read
  • Most Commented
  • Editor’s Picks

There Will Be No Climate Catastrophe: MIT Professor Dr Richard Lindzen

29 May 2025
by Hannes Sarv

German Pensioner Receives 75-Day Prison Sentence in Latest Speech Crime Scandal to Hit the Federal Republic

29 May 2025
by Eugyppius

News Round-Up

30 May 2025
by Toby Young

Miliband Accused of Pitting “Neighbours Against Neighbours” After Scrapping Heat Pump Rule

29 May 2025
by Richard Eldred

BBC ‘Damages Countryside’ to Film Chris Packham’s Springwatch

30 May 2025
by Richard Eldred

News Round-Up

30

German Pensioner Receives 75-Day Prison Sentence in Latest Speech Crime Scandal to Hit the Federal Republic

23

Miliband Accused of Pitting “Neighbours Against Neighbours” After Scrapping Heat Pump Rule

19

There Will Be No Climate Catastrophe: MIT Professor Dr Richard Lindzen

25

Miliband Attacks Blair Over Net Zero Criticism and Admits He Could Lose Seat to Reform

16

Trump is Handing Africa to the Chinese for the Sake of Social Media Clout

29 May 2025
by Noah Carl

Hooked on Freedom: Why Medical Autonomy Matters

29 May 2025
by Dr David Bell

So Renters WILL Pay the Costs of Net Zero

29 May 2025
by Ben Pile

The Net Zero Agenda’s Continued Collapse Into Chaos

28 May 2025
by Ben Pile

Alasdair MacIntyre 1929-2025

27 May 2025
by James Alexander

POSTS BY DATE

October 2023
M T W T F S S
 1
2345678
9101112131415
16171819202122
23242526272829
3031  
« Sep   Nov »

SOCIAL LINKS

Free Speech Union

NEWSLETTER

View today’s newsletter

To receive our latest news in the form of a daily email, enter your details here:

POSTS BY DATE

October 2023
M T W T F S S
 1
2345678
9101112131415
16171819202122
23242526272829
3031  
« Sep   Nov »

DONATE

LISTED ARTICLES

  • Most Read
  • Most Commented
  • Editor’s Picks

There Will Be No Climate Catastrophe: MIT Professor Dr Richard Lindzen

29 May 2025
by Hannes Sarv

German Pensioner Receives 75-Day Prison Sentence in Latest Speech Crime Scandal to Hit the Federal Republic

29 May 2025
by Eugyppius

News Round-Up

30 May 2025
by Toby Young

Miliband Accused of Pitting “Neighbours Against Neighbours” After Scrapping Heat Pump Rule

29 May 2025
by Richard Eldred

BBC ‘Damages Countryside’ to Film Chris Packham’s Springwatch

30 May 2025
by Richard Eldred

News Round-Up

30

German Pensioner Receives 75-Day Prison Sentence in Latest Speech Crime Scandal to Hit the Federal Republic

23

Miliband Accused of Pitting “Neighbours Against Neighbours” After Scrapping Heat Pump Rule

19

There Will Be No Climate Catastrophe: MIT Professor Dr Richard Lindzen

25

Miliband Attacks Blair Over Net Zero Criticism and Admits He Could Lose Seat to Reform

16

Trump is Handing Africa to the Chinese for the Sake of Social Media Clout

29 May 2025
by Noah Carl

Hooked on Freedom: Why Medical Autonomy Matters

29 May 2025
by Dr David Bell

So Renters WILL Pay the Costs of Net Zero

29 May 2025
by Ben Pile

The Net Zero Agenda’s Continued Collapse Into Chaos

28 May 2025
by Ben Pile

Alasdair MacIntyre 1929-2025

27 May 2025
by James Alexander

SOCIAL LINKS

Free Speech Union
  • Home
  • About us
  • Donate
  • Privacy Policy

Facebook

  • X

Instagram

RSS

Subscribe to our newsletter

© Skeptics Ltd.

Welcome Back!

Login to your account below

Forgotten Password? Sign Up

Create New Account!

Fill the forms below to register

All fields are required. Log In

Retrieve your password

Please enter your username or email address to reset your password.

Log In
No Result
View All Result
  • Articles
  • About
  • Archive
    • ARCHIVE
    • NEWS ROUND-UPS
  • Podcasts
  • Newsletter
  • Premium
  • Donate
  • Log In

© Skeptics Ltd.

wpDiscuz
You are going to send email to

Move Comment
Perfecty
Do you wish to receive notifications of new articles?
Notifications preferences