The ONS published its latest report on deaths by vaccination status on August 25th 2023. It covers the period from April 1st 2021 to May 1st 2023. I thought you might be interested in the relative all-cause death rate of the unvaccinated and the vaccinated.
The report also covers Covid deaths. However, I’m somewhat sceptical of ‘Covid’ deaths as many Covid deaths were deaths ‘with’ Covid not ‘of’ Covid, so for this analysis I’m only showing the all-cause deaths.
Let’s start with all-cause deaths of all people in England over 18 years of age by month from April 2021 to the end of May 2023, as shown in Figure 1.
There are three obvious points to make. Firstly, there’s a worrying upward trend, which is a bit odd in the years following a supposed deadly pandemic. Secondly, that during 2022 only in September and November were deaths lower than in the corresponding month of 2021. Finally, in April 2023 all-cause deaths were higher than in April 2021. Remember, in April 2021 we still had a largely unvaccinated population doing battle with a ‘raging deadly pathogen’. Why would all-cause deaths be higher this year?
Let’s also just look at the overall situation with regards to vaccination. Bearing in mind that as no one knows how many people live in the U.K., the absolute accuracy of the percentage of the population vaccinated will be an approximation. Our World in Data estimated the level to be about 80% back in September 2022; it hasn’t changed a lot since then. When the ONS data series started in April 2021, the ONS estimates about 46% had had at least one dose. These would nearly all have been elderly and vulnerable people,
What we’re really interested in is whether the unvaccinated look to have died in their droves. Figure 3 answers this question for all ages. And, of course, the answer is a resounding ‘No’. Whilst on these figures the unvaccinated made up 14% of all-cause deaths back in April 2021, when vaccination rates were relatively low, by May 2023 it had come down to just 4%.
Of course, we all know that older age groups tend to have higher vaccination rates than younger ones. So, let’s look at the percentage of unvaccinated among the older age groups.
Figure 4 shows us the percentage of all-cause deaths among the 90+ age cohort, amongst whom, since May 2021, the unvaccinated have never made up more than 5% of deaths, dropping to 2% in September of 2022.
The picture is much the same among the 80-89 year-olds. Since May 2021, deaths of the unvaccinated have never been above 5%, levelling off at 3% since April 2022.
I’ll finish off with the 70-79 cohort. There too you’ll look in vain for a ‘pandemic of the unvaccinated’. By February of 2022 the unvaccinated made up just 5% of all-cause deaths.
I could go on, but you get my point. Vaccination status is not a particular determinant as to the outcome of a bout of Covid and it never was. Furthermore, the first real test of the effectiveness of the vaccines was the Delta wave from July 2021. Yet no spike in the proportion of unvaccinated dying can be seen in any of the charts above.
If you do get tempted to visit the ONS report, do remember to be very sceptical of the ‘age-standardised’ data. We’re back with the issue so eloquently examined by Norman Fenton, Martin Neil, David Spiegelhalter, Tim Harford et al. at various times.
For a quick layman’s summary, the issue revolves around not knowing how many people are in any one age group or indeed, how big the population is overall.
Imagine you have an age cohort of 10 million people, but in fact there are 11 million. The NHS knows it’s injected 9,750,000 people in that age cohort. Consequently, assuming there are 10 million in the cohort they say they’ve vaccinated all but 2.5% of them. But, if it turns out there are actually 11 million in the group then there’s 11.4% of the population unvaccinated, nearly 5 times as many.
Now, imagine that 2,500 unvaccinated people are recorded as Covid deaths. If we thought there were 10 million in the cohort and 250,000 hadn’t been vaccinated it would be assumed that 1% of all the unvaccinated had died. However, if there were really 11 million in the cohort then 2,500 deaths would represent just 0.2% of the 1,250,000 unvaccinated population.
For good measure, Figure 7 covers the four other age-cohorts covered by the ONS data. No shocks here either – and no Delta spikes.
The data in the charts above are the raw data, not age-adjusted or weighted, and they tell me that just 4% of all deaths in May 2023 were of unvaccinated people. Do I think the unvaccinated are at any more risk than the vaccinated? No. But I’m not so sure the other way round.
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There was never a pandemic of any kind, other than of lies and evil.
Even if the “unvaccinated” were dying more, why would a “vaccinated” person care? Don’t these “vaccinated” people believe that their “vaccines” work?
They played on the fear that hospitals would be overwhelmed by the unvaccinated therefore your vaccinated friend/family member would be dying on a trolly thanks to selfish ignorant oafs (their words, not mine). Classic example of playing to peoples base fears as evidenced through much of history.
Indeed. Showing that perhaps it’s true that socialised healthcare leads to tyranny.
Wrong way round, tyranny is the start point and leads to socialised… anything.
Yes, I guess it just enables tyranny by giving them an excuse
Oh tof, get with the plot, no-one is vaccinated until everyone is vaccinated.
My mask only works if you wear one too
Yes they do, but they also believe (still) that others around you being vaccinated protects you even more! Even if we were going to play along with the idea that the vaccination protects against infection, and therefore if you’re uninfected you’re not infectious, even vaccinated people are staying away from others if they’re down with symptoms, as are the unvaccinated. Therefore even if you believe in the vaccines, how can you possibly think that they have any effect on transmission in the real world?
Scary how little people think
The chart showing the share of people who have received at least one dose is interesting. It’s virtually flatlined since the end of 2021 to reach 79.1%. Surely, if the gene therapy jabs worked, more unvaccintaed people would see the evidence for themselves and start taking the jabs – which would have caused the line to rise more steeply.
It actually gives me hope that there may be more “awake people” around than is generally thought.
Or, it could be that more people than we realised only took the jab to keep their job, or so they could travel. Anything like that gets put in place again, and we’ll see the vaccination rate soar! Hope I’m wrong.
I hope you’re wrong too and that most of the unvaccinated would stand firm and resist the jab – if the state’s strong-arm tactics returned.
Oh lots of people I know took it just to be able to travel, especially the young.
I recently told some acquaintances that we’ve not been vaxxed. Their reaction was not “you’re mad, don’t you know you’re a risk to yourself and others?”, it was “oh, how did you travel?” (we didn’t).
They rolled out HM The Queen to tell us that we would be acting selfishly if we didn’t get the COVID “vaccine.” Both she and HRH Prince Philip were “vaccinated” and both since, sadly, died. In the Queen’s case there’s no doubt it shortened her life. In fact she caught COVID and she said it made her “tired and exhausted.” And when she caught the disease she was already fully “vaccinated.”
No doubt she thought that being fully “vaccinated” she was safe from catching COVID, especially given the propaganda that was spewed out by the “experts” who said that getting jabbed would stop one getting COVID and would stop one passing it on.
There’s absolutely no proper evidence to show that these snake oil, money making jabs are effective in any way whatsoever. The only reason COVID isn’t much of a thing any more is that the virus has naturally become milder through mutation, a very common occurrence in new respiratory viral diseases. The “vaccines” deserve no credit but they do deserve much contempt. People associated with the COVID “vaccines” need to be in prison.
“Both she and HRH Prince Philip were “vaccinated” and both since, sadly, died.”
“Sadlidied.” 😀😀😀
The Queen and Philip were double plus vaccinated in order to ensure they died. Chuckles wanted his crown and PDQ and TPTB wanted a ‘good’ news story – or two. Brenda and the Greek were sacrificed to the C1984 gods in order to provide some morbid wallowing for the desperate population and as a means to offer deflection. Eulogising over Brenda provided just that. And, I suspect it allowed Klaus’s little helpers in the government some small respite before embarking on the rigours of their next campaigns. Not forgetting it offered all the wives and ladies an opportunity for new frocks and hairdos.
Every cloud and all that…
But if the real threat to the vulnerable was always actually pneumonia, not from ‘Covid 19’, then what benefits were these pseudo-vaccines ever going to have in the first place? Especially when people were denied access to antibiotics and their condition was allowed to deteriorate. If it’s not been shared already, this is a very interesting article from Prof Martin Neil;
”Have you ever read much discussion of pneumonia vaccines? Researchers have found that a purported preventive of one of the major causes of bacterial pneumonia, the pneumococcal vaccine, is sometimes given to the elderly and vulnerable. Researchers who have looked at the interaction between bacterial pneumonia and SARS-CoV-2 have found that bacterial pneumonia vaccination reduced the risk of Covid-19 by a statistically significant margin.But how can a vaccine for a bacterium reduce the risk from a virus?
Research into the etiology of community-acquired pneumonia concludes that it is often observed that viral species colonise the nasopharynx of patients after they have contracted bacterial pneumonia, suggesting that sequential pneumonia infection followed by viral infection, or parallel infection, where the infections occur together, are both possible. However, the default operating assumption in the medical literature and in practice is the opposite: viral followed by bacterial infection, and since 2020 with SARS-CoV-2 identified as the ‘novel’ root cause.
These research results suggest that the actual burden of risk to patients is not SARS-CoV-2 at all but bacterial pneumonia and that SARS-Cov-2 is secondary to bacterial pneumonia, or it masks bacterial pneumonia, not the other way around. Given this,might it be the case that bacterial pneumonia is acquired in the community rather than in hospital, and that the signal of viral infection follows bacterial pneumonia infection? And if so why was the focus on a virus and not on the perennial risk of bacterial pneumonia?”
https://www.conservativewoman.co.uk/it-was-pneumonia-not-covid-what-done-it/
Yeah, my Dad and I both had COVID-19 at Christmas 2019 (still called ‘peculiar flu-like winter virus with dry, hacking cough’ at the time.) Dad ended up in hospital with pneumonia in March. He never quite shook off the after effects of the virus, which clearly led to him having pneumonia. He was in hospital for five days before being declared all-clear.
He’s never really recovered from the experience though. The lockdowns really horrified him: he said he went through WWII as a small child in a city bombed to Hell by the Germans – a war to stop us being run by a totalitarian government – only for us to turn into a police state in his old age. He’s in his late 80s, very poorly now and severely depressed. He appeared to age a decade because of the lockdowns. When I look at pictures from New Year’s 2019, even when we both still had lingering effects of the virus and see him now, the change is shocking.
My hatred for the politicians and the supranational organisations runs deep and eternal!!
Nick, you haven’t made mention of the fact the unvaccinated population is calculated by subtracting the vaccinated total (which is accurate, because there is a “positive” event, e.g, and individual getting vaccinated) from the total population – which as you have noted is uncertain. There are many reasons to think the total population figure is wrong. Not least, because, as Prof Norman Fenton has pointed out, the proportion of illnesses from “non covid causes” is c.16%greater for the unvaccinated – which is clearly nonsense. We would expect vaccinated and unvaccinated to have roughly the same level of illness from non covid causes (though there is of course the healthy vaccinee effect to be taken into account). This is only likely to occur if, when the vaccinated figure is subtracted from the total population figure, the remainder is less than the true figure. This indicates the remaining unvaccinated population is going to be somewhat closer to the current total unvaccinated x 1.16.
Importantly that (almost certainly wrong) figure is being used as the denominator in all the rate calculations, such as covid infection rate, hospitalisation rates and death. Taking this into account changes the picture great and means the rate of illness for the unvaccinated is, quite wrongly, increased.
Consider also the sleight of hand in counting jabbed as “unjabbed”, for 14/21/28 days as the ONS thinks fit (Why?) and the effect of that upon these and similar comparatives.
Articles by Prof. Norman Fenton/substack eloquently explain the let’s be kind and say many more deceptive methods used regularly by the ONS to put a certain slant on things.
The ONS said they categorised people vaccinated up to 21 days as “Unvaccinated” only in their analyses of effectiveness (as the vaccine takes up to 3 weeks to start to work), and not in their analyses of mortality.
However, Professor Fenton showed that according to the ONS figures, there was a spike in deaths among the Unvaccinated corresponding with the spike in vaccination uptake for each of the 7 age-groups.
The vaccine was rolled out for older age groups first, and younger age groups last, so each spike in uptake for each age group was at a different time, yet somehow at the peak of vaccine uptake for each age group there was a spike in deaths among the Unvaccinated at that particular time!
In other words, the Unvaccinated were somehow dying in greater numbers every time a lot of people in their age group got vaccinated, which is absurd, as they aren’t linked.
Professor Fenton argued that some of the Vaccinated (up to 21 days) must have been miscategorised as ‘Unvaccinated’. The ONS denied it, but were never able to adequately explain how these bizarre spikes among the Unvaccinated could be occuring every time there was a peak in vaccine uptake for each of the seven age groups.
“The illusion of vaccine efficacy revisited
How to make a placebo look 95% effective and guarantee repeat business
“…a vaccine that is actually merely a placebo will inevitably appear to have high efficacy if there is a time delay after vaccination during which the participant is classified as ‘unvaccinated’.”
https://wherearethenumbers.substack.com/p/the-illusion-of-vaccine-efficacy
Many thanks for the information, I didn’t realise that the delay period was only in respect of efficacy.
Very illuminating as regards the spikes though, get out of that ONS.
Obvious to anyone (with a functioning braincell) since March/April 2020.
Not a pandemic.
Not vaccines.
Ergo, a myth.
(OK, the not vaccines bit came a bit later)
We are coming to the end of 2023 and I still don’t know anyone who actually died ‘of’ Covid..or ‘with’ Covid either…nor do I know anyone who knows anyone. All the people I knew before 2020…family, friends, neighbours, acquaintances, shop assistants..people I know from the local pub…you name it..are still with us here and now….
I do know someone who’s family insisted that Covid should not be put on a death certificate, as their mother had been bravely battling cancer for over a year..and they wanted that battle registered, not a ‘fantasy disease’ she didn’t even have any symptoms of….the family won….
Although I live in North Yorkshire I am near to the border with Middlesbrough..in Teeside.
Middlesbrough was always being disparaged as a Covid hot spot in the National press and it was always in the higher tiers (remember them) so I think it’s a good example…
… in the local press in February of 2022 there was very interesting story, because there had been a lot of speculation about an FOI which had been reported on, where James Cook University Hospital in Middlesbrough had reported that up to that time, only 32 people had died with ‘only Covid’ and nothing else on their death certificate.
The news articles went a bit berserk …trying to explain how that wasn’t entirely true, as you can imagine, every excuse in the book was brought out. 32!!
Also the official figures showed that less than 1.500 people had ‘died with Convid‘ on the death certificate in all the hospitals in the Teeside area …
I think at the time I worked out it was something like 0.2 of the population of the area….hardly an era defining pandemic…
If this is typical for most towns, there’s no wonder most of us didn’t see a pandemic, and don’t know anyone who ‘died from Covid’…vaccinated or otherwise…!
(My intention isn’t to dismiss the deaths of anyone who died from the flu, but I think it needs to be put into some perspective…)