The ONS published its latest report on deaths by vaccination status on August 25th 2023. It covers the period from April 1st 2021 to May 1st 2023. I thought you might be interested in the relative all-cause death rate of the unvaccinated and the vaccinated.
The report also covers Covid deaths. However, I’m somewhat sceptical of ‘Covid’ deaths as many Covid deaths were deaths ‘with’ Covid not ‘of’ Covid, so for this analysis I’m only showing the all-cause deaths.
Let’s start with all-cause deaths of all people in England over 18 years of age by month from April 2021 to the end of May 2023, as shown in Figure 1.
There are three obvious points to make. Firstly, there’s a worrying upward trend, which is a bit odd in the years following a supposed deadly pandemic. Secondly, that during 2022 only in September and November were deaths lower than in the corresponding month of 2021. Finally, in April 2023 all-cause deaths were higher than in April 2021. Remember, in April 2021 we still had a largely unvaccinated population doing battle with a ‘raging deadly pathogen’. Why would all-cause deaths be higher this year?
Let’s also just look at the overall situation with regards to vaccination. Bearing in mind that as no one knows how many people live in the U.K., the absolute accuracy of the percentage of the population vaccinated will be an approximation. Our World in Data estimated the level to be about 80% back in September 2022; it hasn’t changed a lot since then. When the ONS data series started in April 2021, the ONS estimates about 46% had had at least one dose. These would nearly all have been elderly and vulnerable people,
What we’re really interested in is whether the unvaccinated look to have died in their droves. Figure 3 answers this question for all ages. And, of course, the answer is a resounding ‘No’. Whilst on these figures the unvaccinated made up 14% of all-cause deaths back in April 2021, when vaccination rates were relatively low, by May 2023 it had come down to just 4%.
Of course, we all know that older age groups tend to have higher vaccination rates than younger ones. So, let’s look at the percentage of unvaccinated among the older age groups.
Figure 4 shows us the percentage of all-cause deaths among the 90+ age cohort, amongst whom, since May 2021, the unvaccinated have never made up more than 5% of deaths, dropping to 2% in September of 2022.
The picture is much the same among the 80-89 year-olds. Since May 2021, deaths of the unvaccinated have never been above 5%, levelling off at 3% since April 2022.
I’ll finish off with the 70-79 cohort. There too you’ll look in vain for a ‘pandemic of the unvaccinated’. By February of 2022 the unvaccinated made up just 5% of all-cause deaths.
I could go on, but you get my point. Vaccination status is not a particular determinant as to the outcome of a bout of Covid and it never was. Furthermore, the first real test of the effectiveness of the vaccines was the Delta wave from July 2021. Yet no spike in the proportion of unvaccinated dying can be seen in any of the charts above.
If you do get tempted to visit the ONS report, do remember to be very sceptical of the ‘age-standardised’ data. We’re back with the issue so eloquently examined by Norman Fenton, Martin Neil, David Spiegelhalter, Tim Harford et al. at various times.
For a quick layman’s summary, the issue revolves around not knowing how many people are in any one age group or indeed, how big the population is overall.
Imagine you have an age cohort of 10 million people, but in fact there are 11 million. The NHS knows it’s injected 9,750,000 people in that age cohort. Consequently, assuming there are 10 million in the cohort they say they’ve vaccinated all but 2.5% of them. But, if it turns out there are actually 11 million in the group then there’s 11.4% of the population unvaccinated, nearly 5 times as many.
Now, imagine that 2,500 unvaccinated people are recorded as Covid deaths. If we thought there were 10 million in the cohort and 250,000 hadn’t been vaccinated it would be assumed that 1% of all the unvaccinated had died. However, if there were really 11 million in the cohort then 2,500 deaths would represent just 0.2% of the 1,250,000 unvaccinated population.
For good measure, Figure 7 covers the four other age-cohorts covered by the ONS data. No shocks here either – and no Delta spikes.
The data in the charts above are the raw data, not age-adjusted or weighted, and they tell me that just 4% of all deaths in May 2023 were of unvaccinated people. Do I think the unvaccinated are at any more risk than the vaccinated? No. But I’m not so sure the other way round.
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What problem is this “warming” meant to cause?
The kind of ‘warming’ that resolves when you throw money at it.
The straight answer is, of course, that some people have read in the news that some other people in places like India have died of being too warm – and they therefore think we should all do something about it.
Every country that publishes short term (weekly) mortality data shows that cooler/colder seasons coincide with increased mortality and vice versa. I wouldn’t claim nobody ever died of being too warm but the numbers are far outweighed by the count of deaths from being too cold.
India does not produce reliable weekly mortality stats. If they did I expect that cooler seasons would see higher mortality than hotter seasons. They are not well enough developed; they have only just cracked giving almost all their citizens electric power for lighting and phones – let alone enough power to run fridges to keep food safe to eat and cookers to cook it properly (though they have got a space industry).
What the policies against warming seek to achieve is incompatible with many countries’ drive to develop further. At best they’re misguided. At worst, evil.
Indeed; thanks.
I thought the bullshit reasons were to do with coastal areas being submerged by the oceans, maybe certain areas getting less rain than they used to, others more, not being able to grow what you used to grow – the kind of changes that have always happened, to which humans (and the living things that came before us) have had to adapt.
I don’t think they grow much in the way of food in Delhi. The urban heat island effect will be something fierce though. Something like 34m people in the metropolitan area:
Source
No wonder Delhi’s power consumption has hit an all-time high.
Indeed
Perhaps rather than destroying our economy they could spread out a bit more or build homes that manage temperature more efficiently
When I visited Sri Lanka in 2015. in the middle of nowhere, I was amazed that this small rural hut had a TV. They had hydroelectric Dam in the area.
Hydro seems like a smart option – always on. Don’t know what the lifespan is though and whether you get your money back over the lifespan, nor what the environmental impact is.
Most hydro installations – small or large – are custom built, and involve significant civil engineering works. So they are expensive to build. When there were subsidies for wind and solar, which hydro also received, hydro could be a successful investment, albeit with a breakeven p/kWh somewhere in the high 20’s and upwards [of which the subsidy typically provided 75%]. Hydro could still be successful now – the technology is very mature – but with electricity prices going up and down like a whore’s drawers on Navy Day, no-one will risk the capital. Certainly, no user of electricity will commit to pay >35p/kWh for 20 years when, in the last year [and despite the MSM rubbish about Ukraine and whatever latest crisis the MSM are promoting] there have been times when it has almost been impossible to give electricity away in the UK
Norway, who use a lot of hydro, seems to have reasonably low wholesale electricity prices but that might not reflect recouping the initial investment cost. It may depend on geography.
Slightly unique case – huge mountains, lots of rain, very old established infrastructure [payback achieved many years ago], low population/demand. Norway has everything!
And I believe a large sovereign wealth fund from oil & gas which they have not frittered away, yet….
The environmental impact can be very damaging if too many dams are built on one river. The Mekong is a case in point.
Maybe but in actual fact there is nothing at all unusual about current temperature or climate. —–Climate is just the excuse for the policies that seek to control the worlds wealth and resources amidst concern about population growth. ——-There is this Malthusian type of fear that there are too many people in the world using up a finite fossil fuel resource in the ground, and the western world who have used up mor than their fair share of that are to stop doing that first and use wind and sun instead. This ofcourse involves a huge lowering of living standards for the wealthy western populations, and therefore a massive propaganda exercise is required by politicians and their supporting media to convince us all there is a “climate emergency” where real world data indicate there is NONE.
The problem of “the little people” having a living standard which the self-selecting “Elite” thinks is too good for them.
Loved this – a tour de force!
The problem is the relentless nature of the propaganda that the planet is warming and we’re all doomed. It comes from (nearly) all politicians, broadcast media, schools and colleges, big corporations, “luvvies” et al. Most people seem to have an unshakeable belief in this false “consensus”. How we open more peoples’ eyes – and quickly – is the challenge.
They must open their own eyes. And there are as many triggers as there are people on the planet. But I have come to see that using calm, reasoned argument is never one of those triggers.
It’s easier to fool someone than to convince them they’ve been fooled.
No man-made global warming, instead a man-made scientific wilderness. Faith and belief seemingly more important than empiricism and observation; egotism, self, and ‘my truth’ have become the mainstream. As I reflect on my life, I was one of those given hope by Wilson’s speech in the early 60s about harnessing the white heat of technology. What we did not see, did not realise, was that there was another group harnessing the dead hand of stupidity. During the 60s the philosophies of the followers of the Frankfurt School and individuals such as Gramsci and Derrida, were insidiously influencing the teacher training colleges and the humanities departments of our universities with the results that we see today. Yesterday’s attack on Stonehenge is just one graphic example of how far we have fallen.
A huge part of the problem is that there’s no political choice to be exercised on the issue. Climate change was decreed an important issue to be dealt with and End use of fire by humans! was decreed to be the solution to it by legal fiat. Hence, all activist astroturfers need to do is to collect money for lawfare actions from well-oiled international NGO and put them in front of the usual political judges to get another Fiat justicia, pereat mundus! verdict.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cxwwzmn12g9o
The simple way to handle this problem (and quite possibly, the only way) would be to pass a bill of attainder against Tony Blair and decree everything ever done by any New Labour government against the law of the land, effective today at noon. Any attempt to continue any of these politics by anyone to be dealt with by forced shipment to the colonies. The UK has enough overseas territories left to keep thousands of loons busy with subsistence agriculture for the remainder of their lives.
‘Ere! What have the colonies ever done to you?
The people living on the Falklands probably wouldn’t be very happy about this and rightfully so. But that was figuratively spoken and supposed to mean It must be made absolutely clear that future attempts to waste trillions of pounds of other people’s money to try to do something that’s impossible in order to accomplish something that’s not going to matter will not be tolerated.
Insofar the UN was concerned, we’d still all be running around with face masks all day, would still all be doing regular proactive Sars-CoV2 PCR tests and would all line up for a new COVID shot every three months. What stopped them was a resolute We won’t be doing this! in January 2022. And the Global Boiling Project needs to be dealt with in the same way.
The Supreme Court here reversed the 2 lower courts decisions. What can one do when the judges on the Supreme Court go woke. Legatt who gave the main judgement educated at Eton, son of a rather old school Court of Appeal judge, barrister in top commercial chambers, seemed quite sensible when junior counsel in a case I was involved with.
The people that started all this in the Club Of Rome are all dead, but don’t assume the intentions have changed. Like with the Rockefellers’ their legacy is past down.
On the end of GB News last night Adam (think that’s his name) the Pub owner mentioned that the Planet warms in cycles, and Becky to his left said “do you deny climate change”. This stupidity is what we’re up against.
That’s not really stupidity. It’s thoughtlessness, ie, people repeating something which has been hammered into their brains through endless repetition.
But the entire Green charade isn’t about warming and it never has been. It is Eco Socialism pure and simple and here in the UK and all across the western world our parasite politicians (except Trump) are pandering to the UN Sustainable Development Agenda.
Sure, all the silly brainwashed activist groups run around throwing paint and soup at things because they have no clue about climate or energy and have swallowed the whole climate emergency propaganda down like a Herring Gull with your cheeseburger, but from the very start as the Club of Rome put it “In searching for a new enemy to unite us, we came up with the idea that famine, water shortages and global warming would fit the bill”
Since then the entire political class via the IPCC which was set up in 1988 have sought out and cherry picked everything that would seem to indicate a human influence on climate whist ignoring all of it that didn’t. It is “Official Science”, not “Science”.
The thing that powers Industrial Capitalism is cheap abundant energy, and in order to reshape the world away from the capitalist system the fossil fuels that power the world have to be removed. We see that in the pronouncements of the likes of Klaus Schwab when he talks about it being “our responsibility to bring about the collapse of Industrial Society”.
Just think about that for a second———THE COLLAPSE OF INDUSTRIAL SOCIETY—WOW. ———–Wake up people. It isn’t about the climate——IT NEVER WAS. ——Global warming is “the enemy to unite us”
Totally agree. I first noticed it in early 2000’s as an obvious route to subvert capitalism.
Interesting how the MSM or even GBN will talk about all the policies, yet when George Galloway sparks a chilling prediction, that we would see war in six months with Labour, nobody is picking up the batten apart from Dewbs on GBN for five minutes. If a hot war is n the cards, they would need to reverse the green agenda sharpish!
Net Zero is impossible. Politicians know it is, which is why they had no debate and no discussion of cost. There was not even a vote. They just waved it through in 2019. —–So a policy that affects every aspect of our lives, our prosperity, our health and well being, our life span, our ability to heat and power our homes, what we can eat or drink, where we can and cannot travel etc etc has all been decided by a Political Class poisoned with contempt for the people who vote for them and they went ahead with this eco socialist fraud regardless of what any of us think. We are to have GREEN forced on us, our energy rationed by the smart meter, our gas central heating removed, our perfectly good cars scrapped, our travel in planes stopped, our food intake decided by the carbon emissions it produces and on and on and on but they didn’t even discuss it of vote on it————————-How are they getting away with this? Are the public insane?
I love the comment ‘buggallology’ and Swedish doom goblin. I will remember and use them. Thank you Chris
Yes, an unusually aggressive style: I like it. “Buggerallology” – difficult to spell!
“Only in Britain it seems are citizens prepared to elect a Government obsessed with self-inflicted poverty and deindustrialisation.”
——–
It’s currently impossible to elect a Government which doesn’t intend this. I suppose, in theory, if everyone abstained and refused to vote there would not be a Government but in practice, if even one person voted for one of the Westminster Uni-Party candidates that person would “win.”
But as today’s Supreme Court judgement demonstrated, Blair/Brown’s politicised Big State will over-rule any policy which doesn’t conform to the Globalists’ Agenda and there isn’t a hope in hell of the Not-a-Conservative-Party doing anything about it ….. which is why it’s going to be obliterated on 4 July. It has made itself obsolete.
The best we can currently hope for is that Trump wins and stops the nonsense in the USA. The far less passive populations in continental Europe kick off big-time and the EU is forced to back-track. And the British people, when the Net Zero pain really starts, demonstrate their ability for passive resistance and dig their heels in.
Great article. You are doing such a good job, Chris, in promoting real science to counter the political science we are insulted with everywhere else.
Our half asleep, naive, gullible, brainwashed public suck up this group think climate crisis garbage and still don’t understand that this is not about saving the planet; it’s about money and control.
Carbon credits and bird flu coming down the tracks.
Another excellent article by the excellent Chris Morrison just a pity so few people are taking his arguments on board. “And some seed fell on stony ground” springs to mind except in this case it’s probably “most”.
Great to see some proper scientists wading in.
I have often marvelled at the way the world balances all its many aspects , and wonder if society’s ignorance will be compensated for by a demo of how serious things can really get if you push the envelope too far
Great article as usual Chris. I’m definitely adopting the phrase “with university degrees in buggerallology” by the way. Pure genius