How Real-World Evidence Contradicts ‘The Science’

In September 2020, I became one of the first U.K. doctors to speak out about damaging Covid policy. Since January 2021, I have co-chaired the multidisciplinary HART group, publishing evidence-based analysis on Covid issues in an attempt to educate the public.

In 2021 it became clear that it was very challenging to persuade people face-to-face that the Government had chosen a dangerous path with its Covid policies. If someone listened long enough to understand one crucial point, the conversation would end with them in cognitive dissonance, unable to reconcile their other beliefs with what they had just learned.

The obvious answer to requiring someone’s attention for a little longer was to write a book. The challenge was to write in a way that ensured no reader would feel angry or foolish. The result was, Expired – Covid the untold story, a book that tackles 12 key Covid myths related to virus spread, lockdowns, asymptomatic infections and the efficacy of masks. Each one is addressed from the starting point of what was the dominant belief system before showing where the arguments did not fit. Each of these beliefs is interspersed with chapters which investigate the psychology of our beliefs, why we believe what we believe, the impact of fear and what it takes to change our minds.

It is a readable book for a layperson and consequently it is not the maths book that many people expected me to write. Instead, it is a summary of what the evidence shows and leaves the details to be referenced elsewhere. It is rich with metaphors and analogies to ensure that even complex concepts are digestible. It also covers far more than just science and psychology. To fully understand the issues requires a history lesson, a bit of religion and plenty of understanding of human failing!

A central theme is the significantly overlooked role of aerosols in exhaled breath – a crucial factor in virus transmission. A comprehensive understanding of this sheds light on why lockdowns and other restrictions failed to yield expected results. However, the physicists specialising in aerosols, despite their expertise, were disregarded and silenced by the medical community, which was tenaciously holding on to a misinformed belief about aerosols that almost unbelievably centred on the wrong number being used in a textbook.

Complicating the matter, the medical community still held onto echoes of a 150 year-old debate between germ theory and miasma theory, causing physicians to dismiss the possibility that microorganisms could be airborne via aerosols, despite a substantial body of evidence supporting this.

The irony is that the proponents of germ theory, who had to fight fiercely for their views to be accepted, adopted some beliefs, specifically about close-contact transmission and asymptomatic transmission, which were not supported by empirical evidence. Because these ideas had been entrenched in medical education and textbooks, they were perceived as fact and seldom challenged.

I have always enjoyed reading non-fiction but was always in awe of how much work the authors must have put into their books. It turns out I was right about just how much work such a book takes! The meticulous research meant that I learnt a lot on the way too so I hope that even if some of the story is familiar to you, there will be plenty for you to learn too.

More than any of the above, Expired is a call to action to reinforce the ethical principles that have guided Western societies for centuries, highlighting the damage done by overriding them during the pandemic and the urgent need to restore them.

Now that the fear and panic era of Covid is finally dissipating it is time for a rational and calm reanalysis of events. The Covid Inquiry is years away from reporting on political decision-making and so far there is marked evidence of bias in the approach being taken. Expired makes sense of the real-world evidence and exposes how ‘The Science’ was based on flawed assumptions that led to devastating policy.

I thoroughly explored avoiding Amazon altogether and using independent publishers, warehousing and shipping but it was simply not economically viable. It is therefore available exclusively on Amazon. It is available as a paperback, on Kindle or as an audiobook (read by me). The reviews so far have been overwhelmingly positive and I would really appreciate your feedback too.