We’re starting to get the sense we’ll be moving away from groupthink: No one wants to own up to the bad karma of being associated with the group: Instead, consensus is on the menu.
Harries Answer: I’m smiling because there are a number of words which keep repeating through the Inquiry. I don’t hold with the groupthink agenda, I think people spoke very freely, they may not all have thought the same thing, and at the end of a meeting you have to come to a consensus statement and position to support progressing whatever the topic in charge is.
Does the UKHSA have spies on our TTE posts? Last week we reported groupthink as the word of the week, and Dame Harries now agrees. However, the plan was to end up with one view. Consensus it is then – well, it is for this week.
Emma Victoria Reed, one of the two former deputy directors in the Department of Health and Social Care, was on the stand on Monday. We may have been reading this wrong so far. The KCs (Mr Keith) strategy is making everyone look clueless regarding pandemic preparedness.
Question: You are not by training an epidemiologist?
Answer. No.
Was this deliberate? Did he want to highlight the lack of formal training as a forerunner to the lack of preparedness? It would likely unnerve you if you were on the stand. The question that followed then set out the KCs position:
Question: Why did no one in the directorate, with an eye to that bullet point, ask himself or herself, “We have a strategy for dealing with influenza pandemic, but because influenza pandemics are intrinsically unpredictable, and because we may be struck by a pandemic that is not influenza but is another viral respiratory outbreak that is equally as unpredictable as influenza and therefore equally catastrophic, we need to have plans for that eventuality’? Why was that question not asked?
Answer: The preparedness we developed for pandemic influenza was based on the reasonable worst-case scenario, so effectively every renewal of that risk assessment did ask whether – what the scenario would be that we ought to prepare for, and on successive risk assessments the risk assessment was the pandemic we should prepare for was a pandemic influenza.
Like last week, we only knew about the F word, and no one told us about the other 30-odd pathogens circulating in the community. We were none the wiser because I’m no expert.
Furthermore, the KC highlights that everything was so complicated:
Question: In his report to the Inquiry, Dr Claas Kirchelle has said: “What sounded complicated on paper proved complicated in practice. The blurred statutory overlap between the local authority, Secretary of State, and Civil Contingencies Act duties could create significant operational confusion over prime protection responsibility during emergencies…” Dame Jenny, do you agree that there was some confusion perhaps over roles in emergency preparedness, resilience and response arising out of what is described as a complicated overlapping or blurred state of statutory responsibilities?
Answer: Yes, but I don’t think it was a perfect system before either…
Some of the initial exchanges between Mr. Keith KC and Ms. Reed are worth noting:
Mr Keith kicks off: So you’ve referred to health protection, and also to health security. What are they and what is the difference between them?
Answer: So health protection and health security policies form part of half of my responsibility. The types of policies that we have responsibility for in that area includes pandemic preparedness, emerging infectious disease, antimicrobial resistance. They are essentially about how the public health is protected but also what threats, under infectious diseases, emerging diseases and pandemics, may well be a risk to public health.
Question: So that’s all under health protection?
Answer: And health security.
Question:Ah, they’re together?
Answer: Yes, they are.
Question: All right. Your statement refers to the directorate having three branches, and you distinguish between health protection and health security, but are they in fact the same area?
Answer: They are very closely related to each other, and sit very closely adjoined.
Question: So which branch does the topic of pandemic preparedness fall under?
Answer: Predominantly under health protection.
We think the deceptively debonaire Mr. Keith is highlighting the complete confusion in the Department.
What is the difference between health protection and health security? We are also confused.
Later on, it gets worse.
Question: Do you recall when you took up post anybody briefing you about the serious concerns expressed by the Department of Health and Social Care’s own departmental board about whether or not there were systems in place to track or quarantine thousands of people in the event of even a moderate pandemic?
Answer: There was no discussion with me about quarantining.
Question: What about track and trace, any discussion about that?
Answer: There was no discussion with me about track and trace.
KC Question: “All right. Then, in relation to paragraph 26, did anybody at your very senior level in the Department say, “Ms Reed, we’ve got concerns about how fragmented the system for preparedness in the United Kingdom has become, this is something that your directorate is going to have to grapple with”?
Reed’s Answer: In the terms in which you set out, no. But the process for how the system would respond to a pandemic – and by the system I mean organisations in health and social care – was both a factor of our pandemic flu readiness programme but also one of the learnings from Exercise Cygnus, so the intent of that paragraph and the issue relating to system overload was something that I was aware of, yes.
A senior civil servant takes over a key post, and no one briefs her; there was no overlap with the previous post holder, and any institutional knowledge was lost. That cannot be so.
Also, note the abuse of the F word. What does it mean? Influenza? RSV? Rhinovirus? Countless known and unknown agents could cause acute respiratory infections.
If senior civil servants use vague terms betraying abysmal ignorance of basic microbiology, no wonder they and us are confused and public monies are wasted in useless ventures like mass testing.
Day 2 saw the much-awaited appearance of Matt Hancock. As Paymaster General and Minister for the Cabinet Office between May 2015 and July 2016, he was responsible ministerially for the National Security Risk Assessment process.
The KC was at pains to stress that the interview was only concerned with the issues of emergency planning and preparedness and wouldn’t be discussing pandemic measures and whether they worked or not – all is not lost; they’re up for discussion in module 2.
Hancock was keen to pass on that “on antivirals, we had a stockpile of antivirals for a flu, but not for a coronavirus”. In the preparedness, though, someone could have looked at the evidence; they don’t prevent transmission nor deal with serious complications.
Oh, and by the way, how can you not have a stockpile of coronavirus antivirals if they do not exist? This is a former Health Secretary giving evidence; you’d expect him to know this or someone to have briefed him.
Hancock’s position was clear: we need to lock down harder and faster next time: “but it is not nearly as important as getting the doctrine right so in future we’re ready to suppress a pandemic, unless the costs of lockdown are greater than the costs that the pandemic would bring.”
The KC returned to the dominant narrative of module 1. There was only one plan for influenza: “That single strategy document identified no strategy for a non-influenza pandemic other than the hope that the plan for an influenza pandemic could be modified to deal with a high-consequence infectious disease that was not influenza?”
We did find something we agree with Matt on: “It would be far better to have a respiratory disease plan and a blood-borne pandemic disease plan and a vector, i.e., touch-borne – or touch-borne disease plan, that was non-specific about the virology of the pathogen….”
We pointed this out so many times over the years, even citing Moltke the Elder: the unexpected always happens (“No plan of operations extends with any certainty beyond the first contact with the main hostile force”).
The KCs questioning further demonstrated how clueless everyone was: “Are you surprised now that you were not informed that the strategy was deemed to be, and I quote a document from your own department, ‘out of date, unfit for purpose’?”
The line of questioning continued in this vein: “How many of those overarching meetings, NSC (THRC) meetings, did you go to in order to inform them of those regular progress updates?“
Hancock Answer: Personally?
Question: Personally.
Answer: None that I can remember. I attended the National Security Council from time to time when the agenda included areas that I was responsible for. I was not a standing attendee. But I don’t recall ever being asked to attend to report on this.”
Question: Did you know of the existence of the NSC (THRC), the ministerial – overarching ministerial committee to which you were expected to report?
Answer: Yes, I attended it. That’s essentially the National Security Council.
Question: No, the NSC (THRC), the threats, hazards, resilience and contingencies committee.
Answer: Yes, that‘s a subcommittee. That one is a subcommittee of the National Security Council.
Question: How many of those subcommittee meetings did you attend?
Answer: I can’t recall.
Question: Did you attend any?
Answer: I may well have attended none, but I can’t recall.
Q: Have you seen any piece of paper that suggests you did attend?
Answer: No.
Q: Why not?
Answer. I’ve no idea.
Hancock has a thing about suppressing. He wants to suppress respiratory agents (pure fantasy) and suppress us and all other opposition to his rants (it does not appear to have worked very well).
We also learnt of the lack of preparedness in social care – an easy dodge though for Matt – it was nothing to do with the Government as the responsibility lay with local authorities.
The KC revealed his latest thinking: “There was a bias within the Department of Health and Social Care in favour of influenza,” and as a consequence there was “a failure to think through properly the risks of a non-influenza pandemic… and the risk assessment was cause agnostic, it failed to identify a sufficiently broad range of scenarios.”
Module 1 isn’t about whether measures worked but whether measures were considered in the context of respiratory pathogens. The direction of travel is clear. Due to the focus on a single pathogen, plans were narrow, and government machinery was overly complicated and confused. Broadly speaking, the plans weren’t worth the paper they were printed on.
In response to Hancock’s answer, the day’s quote was from the KC on those who worked in healthcare.
“Lions led by structural donkeys, Mr Hancock; personally everyone gave their all but the system was not fit for purpose, was it?” said the KC.
Hancock’s Answer: “That’s absolutely right…”
Later that day, the former director of Public Health England from 2012 to 2020, Mr. Duncan Selbie, gave evidence. The KC’s tactic put him immediately on the back foot.
Question: It’s right, Mr. Selbie, that you don’t hold any medical or scientific qualifications, do you? Do you feel in any way that that hampered you in carrying out your role as Chief Executive of Public Health England?
Answer: Well, I’ve thought deeply about this, and, you know, with all genuine humility, no.
Question: All right. Thank you very much for that answer. Indeed, we have been through the extensive experience that you had of acting as a chief executive before taking up that post at Public Health England. But I suspect that you may have been asked a similar question when you gave an interview in 2013 to the Lancet, because, asked about your experience in public health, your answer appears to have been: “You can fit my public health credentials on a postage stamp…” Is that right?
A postage stamp, it is, then.
Day Three saw the Scots up. There’s not much to report apart from the fact that they were as unprepared as the English: For once, there’s unification in the Union.
However, there was a change to Kate Blackwell asking the questions. The Inquiry has appointed eleven King’s Counsels (KCs) to support Hugo, the Lead Counsel. The inquiry cost was reportedly £85 million by August last year; the Telegraph reported costs had hit £114 million before the hearings had begun. It’s anyone’s guess how much it will end up costing; some contracts are reported to run for up to seven years.
Up on Thursday was Sir Jeremy Farrar (see here for a bit of background). However, you wouldn’t have known from the news, as his testimony went largely unnoticed.
However, we detected a shift in his thinking as he mentioned the need for red teams to challenge SAGE thinking. “The second thing I would suggest, and I was part of this in a U.S. group, is that there is outside the SAGE system, but linked to it in a constructive way, if you like, a red team. A red team that would have access to other – the same information but would be able to constructively challenge the thinking from the outside and wouldn’t be within the room at the same time.”
He must have been listening to our soundings, as in our plan to the PM in October 2020; we said, “Red teaming policy decisions should be the norm by adopting a practice that rigorously challenges plans, policies and any assumptions.”
We also detected little reference to evidence in his testimony, but with his recent move to the WHO in Geneva, he seems to have taken a penchant for their cheese: “In public health there’s rarely a magic bullet. Public health – the analogy of the Swiss cheese model of having multiple interventions is crucial.” Farrar’s strategy is to throw the kitchen sink at a respiratory virus and hope for the best.
The big act of Thursday Saw Nicola Sturgeon take to the soapbox – Ooops, no, Nicola, the witness box: “Ms Sturgeon, I’m so sorry, that is a witness box not a soapbox, and we cannot allow.”
The Deputy First Minister in the Scottish Government, John Swinney, followed her. Ms. Blackwell wanted to know why the Cabinet Sub-Committee on Scottish Government Resilience, which met to prepare for special contingencies such as pandemic influenza, had last met on April 14th 2010.
Backwell question: Do you agree that, as far as this meeting was concerned, it very much looked as if the committee was going to be busy?
Swinney Answer: Yes, and the work that flowed from that over a number of years, I think, demonstrates exactly that point.
Question: So why was this the last occasion upon which this committee met?
It’s starting to look like the Counsels to the inquiry have done their homework. Slowly they are unpicking the complicated, confused mess of government decision-making structures. Too many people coming and going, too many committees, no one keeping an eye on the overall strategy and a “sluggishness” within the system.
Blackwell Question: Can I suggest, in addition to that, though, there appears to have been a sluggishness within the Scottish Government to implement aspects of not only the Exercise Cygnus recommendations but also those that had come from Exercise Silver Swan in 2016 and Exercise Iris in 2018?
We’ll leave the final word for this week to Lady Hallett, who’s had enough of acronyms.
Lady Hallett: I think we have all had enough acronyms for one day.
The Witness: I’m sorry about that.”
Lady Hallett: It”s not your fault, I’m afraid it’s systemic.
The Witness: Yes.
Lady Hallett: If only it was enough acronyms for a lifetime, but I fear it’s not.
We think it may be more gobbledygook next week, particularly if this week’s performance is anything to go by. However, let’s hope it’s not systemic.
Dr. Carl Heneghan is the Oxford Professor of Evidence Based Medicine and Dr. Tom Jefferson is an epidemiologist based in Rome who works with Professor Heneghan on the Cochrane Collaboration. This article was first published on their Substack blog, Trust The Evidence, which you can subscribe to here.
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Lockdowns to avoid varients = perpetual lockdown. It’ll always take a few months for the vaccine to catch up, then to distribute. By the time you’ve got there, you’ll have another varient of some sort.
Indeed
Continuing current lockdown to avoid future lockdown = jam tomorrow = big lie
For sure. The only remedy is nuclear Armageddon, where only cockroaches survive. The pity is that Whitty, Ferguson, Johncock et al are cockroaches.
It’s a complete lie. No variant differs enough from the original virus to require an adjusted vaccine,
I just cannot understand how anyone believes this total lie.
Sheer brainwashing isn’t it and the inability of so many people to think rationally as a result. My hairdresser (mobile) said yesterday that she has quite a few clients who despite being fully vaccinated are still unwilling to leave their houses. You do wonder what their thought process is.
They have been numbed through fear and blatant disinformation. Not everyone thinks of looking elsewhere to find out what is really going on. Sadly, they trust the government and SAGE, who seem to be having a good laugh at our expense.
Indeed it is brainwashing. Last week I asked friend to pick me up from Heathrow in June(I am in Thailand which is on the green list).
he said no because he didn’t want to put mine or his health at risk. He will not go to anyones house or take the grandchildren in the car.
He has had both vaccines.
Sad huh?
What’s that expression ‘ If you tell a lie big enough and keep repeating it, people will eventually come to believe it´. It is staggering and I can’t even get most people to open up and discuss the issue.
Yes. Those who don’t want us to return to anything like normal are really onto a winner with these variants. The take on this pandemic has become – unfortunately like much of science nowadays – totally reductionist. We really need to step back and look holistically at the big picture and see how much harm has been done this past year – all in the so-called interest of protecting people!
No doubt something similar will be rammed down English throats by the time the Sunday rags come out. As usual, SAGE are pushing the “Destroy UK” buttons, and the gutless wonder will let them.
Yes, Kim Jong-Johnson revels in locking down
They voted for her… they got her…..their problem
As I’m sick of telling my English/Welsh/NI friends; more people vote AGAINST the SNP in Scotland than vote FOR them. The problem is the pro-union vote is split 3 ways.
Believe me, most people in Scotland are just as appalled by her “leadership” as those of you in the rest of the UK.
Speak for the people of Scotland she does NOT!
I”ve campaigned for Scottish Independence for years in order to get away from these idiots that keep getting voted in in Englandshire – don’t diss the SNP when Scotland have not voted for a Conservative government since around Nineteen Fifty Oatcake. Still – I cancelled my SNP membership last week – not keen on being run by yet another bunch of villains.
So if Grovel Smarmer got voted in in England, you’d rejoice?
God help you.
You attribute imaginary views to your adversary
Egos. Why for instance did so many anti Lockdown candidates stand for the London mayoral election? I know it would have made little difference but if they’d got together as a coalition the anti Lockdown vote might have done even better. Just a thought!
Exactly. Time to put personal ambition aside and figure out who has the best chance in a coalition because there is much that unites them. Pick the winner out of a hat if necessary! Just stop splitting the damned vote.
But it’s not just their problem is it? Where Sturgeon leads Johnson follows. England will go for a similar solution in designated areas/tiers next week, but we’ll get the south of the country into full freedom (except masks) after Jun 21 to allow Johnson to get married. But after that…. Tiers in Sep, full lockdown in Oct.
The fascinating conundrum for Johnson and Sturgeon will be COP 26 in Glasgow in November: how will they balance that one?
Looking at age related “cases” shows that the peak age group is 14 to 19 year olds, which is why even if they have it, they haven’t needed hospitalisation and simply don’t die from it.the
Test enough school kids twice a week and figures are almost guaranteed.
There is no hope for Scotland.
Scotland is doomed.
You know how she works. She either copies or tries to get ahead of the agenda. Which means, we’ll follow suit eventually. I don’t know why I get surprised by any of this anymore. Known the plan since mid last year. I think its more a case of wishing I was wrong but I really need to get real and prepare best I can. Get ready folks. The next step will be rampant inflation so make sure you have a) money in assets like shares and property or b) have cash at hand to accommodate food prices going up.
They’ll ban cash soon enough…with the excuse that it harbours the virus and other nasties! Big Brother can then really be the all-seeing eye. Bastards!
Invest now in canned food. Move to Dixie.
Bet they’re really glad they voted her back in….. Suckers
So fatty the pretend Jogger has all but canned 21 June. What a surprise. And yet no English media are pointing out what this prat in Scotland is up to. Absolutely awful bunch. But hey people voted for them.
Hello everyone! I was wondering where I could share this you tube podcast or perhaps suggests Toby to have a look if it can be included on the newsround session. It is cohesive and such in depth. Here is the link: https://youtu.be/3NODUelJeCE
The LS team are on lockdownsceptics@gmail.com
A suggestion to be included on the newsround : https://youtu.be/3NODUelJeCE
How the hell can anybody have voted for this nasty little hag?
The alternatives were terrible.
For the same reason, England voted for Kim Jong-Johnson instead of Jeremy Corbyn.
Sooo predictable!! First Sturgeon and Drakeford go ape, and then Boris will follow suit. This pattern is becoming monotonous – carrot & stick, hope & despair. Surely even the sheep should wake up to this now?
Let’s make tomorrow’s protests throughout the country huge. And even bigger in two weeks time in London!
Please call the Prime Moron by his proper name of Kim Jong-Johnson.
Thank you.
8 cases in 10,000.
Am I missing something?
Yes. The operational false positive rate. It’ll be larger than 8 in 10,000, which is equivalent to 0.08%. According to a June 2020 government document which was sent to SAGE & called “SAGE paper, when Lord Bethel referred to it in a written answer, the oFPR still hadn’t been determined, but past estimates ranged from 0.4 – 2.3%.
They’re lying again.
“Of all tyrannies, a tyranny sincerely exercised for the good of its victims may be the most oppressive. It would be better to live under robber barons than under omnipotent moral busybodies. The robber baron’s cruelty may sometimes sleep, his cupidity may at some point be satiated; but those who torment us for our own good will torment us without end for they do so with the approval of their own conscience.”
― C. S. Lewis
Except it is not for the good of its victims, though that is what the government et al is trying to portray. By this time, we all know what their agenda really is, and it is evil and harmful. They don’t give a fig about us expendables. And their consciences aren’t troubled one jot. They are enjoying it.
It’s about time we stopped using North Korea as a measure of authoritarianism when the country’s people enjoy greater freedom and civil liberties than we currently do.
Spiteful Nannying Party Fuhrerein
And she lives in Baillieston in the east end of Glasgow, the area I grew up. How her windows haven’t been put in every night is a mystery to me.
Her salary is paid by you and I don’t forget.
Well thanks Sturgeon, indoor gym classes were suppose to start up in Glasgow on Monday, not anymore. I’m still paying £30/ month for a very reduced gym service. But I know the gym might close if even more folk cancel their membership. They are hanging on, and need folk like me to keep paying full price for limited access, but for how long….
Then there is my friend who had arranged a night out with an old friend on Thursday next week to the casino… She tells me he is not coping well and was really looking forward to a bit of company, well he will just have to wait then. And the local pub near me, with no outside space, they have been closed but the lights have been on over the last few days and folk inside have been getting ready to open on Monday, how are they feeling now, back to putting the boards up on the windows?
But what does all this matter to Sturgeon, Leitch or Bauld?
“It means people in Glasgow will be no longer allowed to mix in each other’s homes from Monday as planned.”
Hahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahaha!!!! Yeah right!
Lolz
Where Scotland leads Boris Johnson always follows a week or so later
Its time to remove her from office and remove this lockdown.
So you remove her from office – which party leader is likely to step up and cancel the new lockdown?
I hope people see how arbitrarily this has been done. Hope is a burning ember at this stage however
The dentist strikes again. -_-
The positivity (fraction of tests performed which come back positive) is far below any reasonable estimate of the operational false positive rate.
What this means is that there almost certainly are NO cases.
It’s incumbent on the Scottish government to show otherwise.
It’s at best incompetence & more likely malfeasance to imply there are cases in the community when there are not.
Exactly the same applies to England.
Remember, your government is lying to you, with the intent of causing you & your family harm.
The Social Anthropologist will be behind this! Sturgeon’s close friend……
Glad you’re here. Been following you since you started making noises last year. You are doing brave, valuable work and many people I know, including me, are using your material to make a noise. I don’t use my real name here because at the start of all this I did and got abuse in my email – by 77th I believe, not genuine sceptics. So I have a wee tiny experience/taste of all the crap you must have suffered.
Sorry Scotland! You ain’t never getting out lockdown – there will forever be mutations.
Please stop the blame game. Yes there are a few Scots who have greviences against the English but there are a few English with greviences against the Scots.
I joined this group last year and found myself relating to people because of the situation we find ourselves in now. I don’t always agree with everyones politics but this is not about politics, this is much bigger and we are a small enough group of people trying to find ways to get our freedoms back, using the Scots /English greviences is going to divide us even more.
I know that the population of Scotland is smaller than the population of London and there’s millions more English than Scots, so it benefits the Scots but I’m not going to apologise for how a quarter of the country voted for a psychopath, as the English didn’t make any better decisions in their local elections, none of us were given any good alternatives as the big 2 in England and the big 3 in Scotland, are all built from the same mould.
Let’s put down our pitch forks until we are free to travel the world at will once more and not locked up by tyrannical governments, not just in the UK but all over the world.
Quite.
So glad to see “The Science” back in full swing! Lord save us from these bloody experts!
I live in Moray and have studied the numbers in fine detail. Firstly – more than half of Moray has had not a single case for weeks, secondly the centre of this spike (Elgin) turned the corner three days ago and the ‘case rate has already dropped by 47%. My guess is tat by the middle of next week Elgin and Lossiemouth will be ‘light grey’ on the DT’s mini map leaving only the mighty geographically isolated small town of Aberlour a bit pink.
Mike Yeadon points out these are false positives. We are very lucky to have someone of his status and expertise commenting below the line. Thank you, Dr Yeadon, for all you do.
Even if they were true, it would be good news. The virus would be spreading amongst the young, asymptomatically, at a time of the year when it is least dangerous, and when all the vulnerable who need it have had the jabs. It would be giving precious natural immunity to the young, and increasing that best of all immunities.
This Scots continued imprisonment is blatantly to force more people to take the jabs, especially the young.
Just returned from a week in Scotland. Man have they scared the pants off people. Walking up to someone, anyone in Scotland automatically triggers a very fast movement away from someone getting too close. There are one way systems everywhere to the point it was impossible to find the way in or out of venues. Dinner over at 8pm, no booze with dinner but magically on this coming Monday, because the virus knows it is Monday, you can have dinner in a restaurant with a drink til 10:30pm. And the funny thing is……everyone seems to think this is absolutely okay!!! As I already said,boy have they scared the pants off the Scottish population. So very sad to see people behave this way. So much stupidity.
The people of Moray must think that Sturgeon has lost her Marbles.
Lovely comment! Elgin marbles I assume.
Moray is of course a Conservative constituency so not surprised that the evil one is having a go at them, despite the very few cases there. Glasgow is a bit of a surprise so I am not sure what she has got against them. However I had to deal with my inconsoleable daughter in floods of tears yesterday as her Glasgow wedding is again under threat. Sturgeon and Johnson are pure evil dictators who have no concern whatever for the mental anguish and despair that they are inflicting on us. I can never forgive them for what they have done and continue to do to our family.
One irony of all this is that in India new case numbers peaked over a week ago at a relatively low figure in relation to a population approaching 1.5 billion and have fallen by over 20% since then; the “Indian variant” is clearly nothing like the rampant threat that some would have us believe.
Moray was an SNP constituency for 30 years and, presumably, they hope to regain it.
Moray is an SNP constituency in the Scottish parliament
The Troll just doesn’t like the idea of Glaswegians having sex.