In a previous article I highlighted how studying core non-respiratory mortality (NRM) trends, which have been very stable over the last 10 years or so, can provide a useful yardstick to measure any kind of extraordinary change that might occur.
Since the vaccine rollout there have indeed been radical changes to this metric, so as we approach the halfway mark of 2023 I thought an update was warranted. Unfortunately there is still no evidence of any real slowdown of this alarming development.
Here is a chart which shows what has been happening with raw non-respiratory mortality data during the four Covid years. The years are each displayed with 13 data-points of four-weekly (monthly) aggregated figures.
Each year appears to be worse than the previous one, and but for the still unexplained spike in non-respiratory deaths at the very beginning of the pandemic, 2020 would have been broadly similar to the 2015-2019 average. Something therefore happened in 2021 that changed the picture radically.
As all four Covid years are showing some excess non-respiratory deaths relative to the 2015-2019 average, the cumulative excess NRM can be displayed like this.
When looked at as a continuous curve with all four years shown consecutively, the chart then looks like this.
So, to summarise, the estimated total excess non-respiratory death toll now exceeds 100,000. Please note that in contrast to my previous article, this time I have already added the estimated mortality displacement (MD) into the cumulative figures for excess NRM. This reflects the fact that cumulative excess all-cause mortality through the Covid years (relative to the pre-Covid 2015-2019 average) stands now at just over 200,000. Mortality displacement lowers the expected number of deaths (so increases the excess) owing to deaths being brought forward in periods of higher mortality.
This is because even though adding in mortality displacement does not change the overall shape of the graphs, it displays more accurately the true picture of the scale of what has been going on with excess deaths in England and Wales. That a similar picture has occurred in many other countries around the world is illustrated by the recent Eugyppius article comparing excess deaths in Germany and Japan.
This chart shows just how stable the trend has been with non-respiratory mortality in the period from 2010 through 2020. The red line represents the 52-week moving average and the data are taken from the ONS weekly mortality reports for England & Wales.
It can be clearly seen that there is a slight rising trend in the period from 2010 through 2020, consistent with a growing population of aged people in the U.K., then a much more abrupt change beginning in 2021.
Looking at multi-year trends in this way, rather than at more recent averages (like the five-year average favoured by the ONS in its mortality statistics for example), can mitigate against the effects of amortisation of a higher rate of mortality and thus normalisation of unwelcome new trends, as Nick Rendell pointed out in his recent article.
The chart also shows how the core mortality in the population typically follows seasonal patterns, rising in the winter and falling in the summer, and thus mimicking to a certain extent the patterns of mortality evident in the ebb and flow of the respiratory season.
Influenza-like illness is normally the main killer during these times, but evidence is mounting that there is a mutually antagonistic competition between rival respiratory pathogens. Thus the Covid years turned out to not be an exceptionally significant addition to overall respiratory mortality, because to some extent they just repressed the influenza deaths that would have occurred anyway.
There is though this strong correlation between the timing of respiratory deaths and core non-respiratory deaths. One could speculate that respiratory deaths, which vary in number each year, bring forward deaths from non-respiratory causes, and so a corresponding lull in these types of death follows naturally in the summer months.
So has Covid been so extraordinarily different from all the other respiratory diseases that we normally experience each year, and somehow increased the size of the winter non-respiratory mortality peaks, whilst also reducing the size of the normal summer lulls? Or is it perhaps something else entirely, as yet unexplained? As the catastrophe is still unfolding, answers are urgently required.
One glimmer of hope that all this will not be washed under the carpet is that mainstream media have begun to report on the heart death epidemic specifically, although at this stage the disturbingly large increase has been entirely attributed to such things as delayed diagnoses, reduced heart drug prescriptions and ambulance delays. Yet the elephant in the room is still never mentioned in polite company.
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A good start, and essentially correct. As you say, one could fill pages with a list of negative effects, but high on the list would be the loss of reputation of some organisations. E.g. some police forces, politicians in general, journalists, bureaucrats that are supposed to provide real value to the public, and certain companies that took an opportunistic view of it all.
The loss of trust in science is especially important. People were always vaguely aware that police, politicians, journalists and bureaucrats might lie, but the realisation that science has been captured essentially demystifies it as the unstated religion of modernity.
In some ways that’s a good thing, as science is a good methodology but an inadequate religion. To have to critique scientific pronouncements the way we have always critiqued every other human activity is, in the end, beneficial for truth.
And the Church, indeed, must step into the breech – it has been aggressively critiqued for 200 years and yet still meets human needs as ideologies rise and fall.
Jon Garvey, when you say “the Church”, which Church are you referring to?
Do you mean the Anglican Church whose head, Archbishop Justin Welby, said that Jesus would get the Covid vaccine and that those who chose not to get vaccinated were breaking his commandment to love one another:
‘“Go and get boosted,” said Archbishop Welby to ITV News. “Get vaccinated. It’s how we love our neighbour. Loving our neighbour is what Jesus told us to do. It’s Christmas: do what he said.”’
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2021/12/22/dont-play-god-card-anti-vaxxers-justin-welby/
Or do you mean the Roman Catholic Church whose head, Pope Francis, said:
“Getting vaccinated is a simple yet profound way to care for one another, especially the most vulnerable”.
And endorsed by the Catholic Church’s many Cardinals, one of whom, Honduran Cardinal Rodriguez Maradiaga, said:
“But one thing is certain: the authorized vaccines are effective, and are here to save lives. They are the key to a path of personal and universal healing.”
https://www.vaticannews.va/en/pope/news/2021-08/pope-francis-appeal-covid-19-vaccines-act-of-love.html
Thankfully, countless churches – notably in Canada and the USA – stood up against these edicts and people donated money to pay off the massive fines. The senior Catholic Church are bought globalist stooges (even a lot of the high up Church hate Bergoglio!) and the C of E has long been run by woke imbeciles.
That’s good to hear. Can you name any of the churches in Canada?
“The Church” generally refers to the Roman Catholic Church or the Anglican Church.
Off the top of my head, no. There were loads of stories carried on the likes of Breitbart, The Daily Wire and – I’m pretty sure – here in the Sceptic at the time. There were some pretty bold priests and pastors who stood up to the law even when police walked into their churches and arrested them mid-service. It sickens me to think such behaviour ever came to our countries.
Yes, I know you’re thinking of the capital ‘C’ church. I was just saying that there were plenty of local churches that didn’t obey. As with so many things ‘establishment’, post-lockdown, I think people are turning their backs on them and making their own way.
I’d go to this Canadian bloke’s church, though I am not religious
(4) CAUGHT ON CAMERA: Pastor kicks out police without warrant from Passover service – YouTube
The Church of England completely failed to speak out against the abuse of humanity by the government: the CofE effectively IS an arm of the government and the state. It silently and obediently locked its doors during the madness, and spoke only to parrot the narrative: wear your mask, do not sing, get your vaccine, vicars may not even enter their own church. (Do not sing. Anyone remember that pearl of wisdom?)
Funny also the mention of pet worship, as I have not forgotten the government was contemplating forced pet euthanasia, because pets “might” spread it. (I didn’t even need Isabel to remind me of that.) I genuinely feared for the safety of my cats three weeks in, when there were rumblings of this: had Saint Boris made the commandment that all pets shall be killed, I expect many people would have done it, seeing how readily they surrendered everything else, and would have happily have killed any they saw. Would Saint Boris have removed the last crumb of company of somebody forcibly alone? Would he have got enough vets on board to do the job? Would they have succumbed to the insanity? Would one of them have euthanised him instead? Would he and his merry men have sacrificed their own pets on the altar of covid? (Of course not, as they broke all their own roolz in many ways. When does the privileges committee report, by the way? Either he’ll get off scot free as always, and the public will just shrug, or he’ll be done to try to “steady the ship” to persuade people to vote tory. “I believe it is essential for me to thank people leaving with a toast; but you’re not alllowed to be with your dying relatives.”
In 1665 cats and dogs were slaughtered to help prevent the London Plague. Plus ca change…
It was de Toqueville almost 200 years ago who warned of ‘the tyranny of the majority’ in a democracy and advocated the rights of minorities. He warned that the Courts needed to protect those rights by reversing efforts by voters to terminate the rights of an unpopular minority.
Sounds familiar in light of the last three years shenanigans.
The Church must step into the breach. It’s why we’re here.
You’re being ironic, right?
See my reply to Jon Garvey, above.
“The demise of millions of friendships”. Indeed, I meet up with some friends recently who I hadn’t spent any time with for a couple of years. They are vaccinated, mask wearing, public sector employed fully paid up members of the metropolitan elite, and sadly as time went on and after several quite heated discussions about the covid hysteria, net zero and leaving the EU, I realised that despite having known them for over 30 years, I now have more in common with their beautiful dogs that I do with them. And I imagine they feel the same way about me and my unapologetic political scepticism.
I’d only moved out of London nine months earlier when lockdowns struck. I’d moved back to my home town after 12 years and was planning on staying with my folks for a while. I’ve been living with them for four years now. My Mum got breast cancer, then the third Pfizer jab seriously damaged her heart, meaning she’s now on steroids and might have to have a defibrillator fitted (I’m unjabbed!) My Dad, who is in his mid-80s, has been destroyed by the lockdowns. His body was in a bad state anyway and, because he was told not to go out, he seemed to age a decade in just one year. His eyesight is shot, he can barely walk and his hearing is ruined. My folks can’t manage without me now, so I’ve accepted how things have turned out. I have to sort out the substantial garden (I was two and a half when my folks bought the house), I cook and clean and have to select jobs I can fit around all that. I’m not working at the moment, because the business is quiet and the only offer I had was from a client who is far too demanding of my time.
My job has become 100 per cent work for London companies from home. That first year back, I’d begun to make friends at a company I was working for locally, but those early stages fizzle if you don’t see people regularly and the company itself shut down for good when lockdowns began.
I have no friends down here. I worked from home almost non-stop from September 2020 – after six months without work and no state compensation – and simply stopped going out. I’m making myself go out for a 30-minute walk each day. But it’s difficult. I now distrust everyone. I pretty much loathe the police and anyone working for local or national government on sight. I can’t be arsed to get into debates with maskbreathers about COVID-19 (it always comes up in conversations.) There are old friends living away that I could reach out to, but I’d rather know they are out there and not see them than end up despising them. One lovely friend ended up working for GAVI and believes everything she’s told. I can’t bring myself to talk to her, much as I’d like to. Last time, she went on about how everyone should have been wearing masks from the start of March 2020.
I know I’ll have to snap out of this at some stage, because my entire life is now about looking after elderly parents and the house, but I’ve gone from being a London-based freelance rushing around from company to company, with a busy social life, to a provincial recluse for whom ever having lived in London seems a distant dream. I admit I’m lonely, but I’m not into internet dating and I don’t drink (until I reached a certain age in London I drank a lot!) so I’m living through books and old (pre-1990) movies.
I blame UK terrorists such as Johnson, Hancock, Vallance, Whitty, Van Tam, Harries and Michie for all this. And they are terrorists: they terrorised our population and driven us into what will ultimately be a suicidal spiral on a societal level. Going out and about, everything now feels tentative, because we know with the likes of the Pandemic Treaty that all this can happen again at any time.
And I’m tired, more than anything else. In past centuries, if governments became repressive, people would climb on a ship and travel to a new land and found a new community. We’re prisoners of passports and smartphone tracking now and none of us is really better off for it.
(PS. Don’t take this as a self-pitying whinge. I’m perfectly happy in myself – I like looking after the house, I take great pride in all the work I’ve done in the garden. I’m just aware that I’ve shrunk my ‘world’ to one house and that it isn’t healthy in the long term.)
I thought this was a good read. And thank you for separating it into paragraphs as this enhances readabilty a lot.
I’ve just (pretty much) recovered enough of my ability to be among other people to (again) regard (some of) them as something other than ugly, smelly things whose movements don’t seem to be directed by any kind of intelligence beyond a desire to make a nuisance of themselves, who just keep getting uselessly in the way because of this. I’m glad that this took only about 1 1/2 years. I expected at least ten.
NB: I’m entirely aware that this is a social deficiency of mine but that’s how it is.
“ I’m entirely aware that this is a social deficiency of mine but that’s how it is.”
Not sure about that – your description fits a lot of people rather accurately.
Your parents are blessed.
This free online course run by a Christian college in the US (they didn’t impose any of the political covid diktats on staff or students) may help you to further help yourself & heal from the abuse & torture that we’ve all been subjected to, & continue to be subjected to.
https://online.hillsdale.edu/landing/dantes-divine-comedy
“Dante’s Divine Comedy” provides an education for those who are facing great trials and adversity. The poem teaches you how to confront life’s challenges, order your soul, and pursue an excellent and free life. These timeless lessons are especially urgent for Americans to study today.
Well you have kindred spirits here, and hopefully some in real life.
And you are awake in the truth and have faced the awful truth head on and found the strength to continue. That’s worth a lot.
Are you able to change your diet to a paleo/keto one? It makes a huge difference to the tiredness one experiences. Also it would be beneficial for your parents. Dairy and wheat are not the same products as they were 60 years ago. If you aim for 2 good meals a day you will have more time and energy for other things.
Hiya! Actually one of my biggest issues, I discovered, was gluten intolerance. 40 plus years of extreme stomach problems ended almost overnight! I’ve been gluten free for about five years now. I have milk in tea and coffee and otherwise use alternatives such as almond milk on cereal.
That is so interesting. You must be pleased that the stomach problems have ended. Books and pre-1990s movies are also healthier than more recent ones. Have you looked at Eckert Tolle?
The human body has a frequency which aligns with the frequency of the earth & which is felt by another being within 6′ of that human. Experiencing another being’s frequency field is essential for our good health. The seemingly arbitrary social distance was purposely chosen to prevent our frequencies from being shared with others.
The attention to detail to harm is impressive & adds further evidence that this ongoing crime has been many years in the planning.
I will second that BB.
“Bad habits of misanthropy took hold when we were all forcibly separated, under the false illusion that such brutal measures would ‘stop the spread’.”
There was no “false illusion” in what has been done to millions of people across the world these last three years. The actions of national governments were carefully co-ordinated such that they all worked in Lockstep in order to subdue and demoralise their populations. Evil on a Third Reich scale has been perpetrated and in many ways it continues.
Vengeance is overdue and the Nuremberg solution is the only one that will suffice. The numbers involved will be enormous but will go some small way to achieving the depopulation envisaged by the Davos Deviants.
Loneliness isn’t just the abscence of contact it is the understanding that your fellow human beings have passed into a world of fear and self-containment to such an extent that you can never reach them again. It was there in the culture beforehand but this has really fractured things all over the world. The understanding of the remedy is the point of this. There will be some even if you feel unable to contribute.
You can’t necessarily cheer someone up or make their day but just by wishing the best for them but you can make them smile and feel like staying alive another day. Every small thing matters.
Thanks to the author for this article and for his contribution to DS.
His twitter feed is worth checking out.
I think that loneliness has definitely increased because society is now divided into those who are awake and those who still refuse to belthieve that they were lied to.
Before lockdowns I had been happily dating a guy with whom I seemed to share the same values. But it became clear that we could no longer be together when he was disgusted that I would not wear a mask and was urging me to get the vaccine. So I ended it.
Since then dating has been difficult. One guy dumped me when I mentioned my reluctance to get the jab, I used to tentatively ask new dates about how they faired during lockdowns, to see if they were awake. But its clear now that dating is a minefield and I fear that I will end up with a mask-wearing boosted woke zealot, ready to rush into the next hysteria that is the Net-Zero climate change ‘crisis’.
I no longer bother dating. Personally, I am not lonely but I feel that many people must feel like this and this adds to the loneliness in the world. Dating has a bigger set of mines to avoid as we seek those who are awake and know the truth of the the past 3 years and the many lies that were told.
‘Only by constantly highlighting the stupidity and destructiveness of lockdowns will we stop such wrecking measures even being contemplated again. They were a disaster on an unforgivable scale…’
What would Luke Johnson have done? In Autumn 2019 a new banking crisis – a re-run, terminal this time, of 2008 – was happening. We solved the debt crisis then with more debt. A pretext had to be created, or seized from existing events, to do it again.
The real damage of the last few years has been to the concepts of honesty and integrity. Everyone knows we were duped and ripped off over Nightingales, PPI, vaccines. No one cares.
Loneliness has been around a very long time. Over 70+ years as people move away from family, or people have no family. I would imagine you will see less loneliness in countries with intact families and kindness. I would not call the USA, the EU, or the UK kind countries.