During the week ending May 26th 2023 there were 1,397 recorded deaths from heart failure. That’s 424 or, if you prefer it as a percentage, 44% higher than the ‘expected’ number of 973 deaths for the same week in 2020. That seems like a very significant change to me.
But why am I comparing the level of heart failure deaths in 2023 to the expected level of heart failure deaths in 2020? It’s because since 2020 the ‘expected’ level of deaths has been inflated by high levels of deaths since then. For a more detailed explanation of what’s happened please see a previous piece that was published in the Daily Sceptic on May 18th.
The Office for Health Improvements and Disparities reports that heart failure deaths were only 16% higher than expected during week ending May 26th 2023. I think this is misleading.
Table 1 illustrates how heart failure deaths in 2021 and 2022 being incorporated into the level of ‘expected’ deaths in 2023 has skewed the data. In 2020 we expected 973 heart failure deaths during week 21, in 2023 we appear to expect 1,209, an increase of 24%.
Put it another way; no excess deaths at all would be reported unless heart failure deaths in 2023 were more than 24% greater than in the same week in 2020. Nothing to see here, move along please!
Table 1 shows the issue:
These figures come from the Office for Health Improvements and Disparities and can be seen here. The data are available via a very neat selectable graphical tool but for those of you who like to get into the weeds there’s also a data download available.
If those were the expected deaths from heart failure, what was the actual level? Table 2 shows us the answer. In the final week of May 2023, 1,397 deaths were registered as being from heart failure in England. This was 16% higher than the 2023 ‘expected’ level, but 44% higher than the 2020 ‘expected’ level.
Of course, data from a single week aren’t necessarily representative of a general trend, and I confess there’s a bit of cherry-picking here. Nonetheless, heart failure deaths in the previous week were even higher at 1,468, the week before they were at 1,363. Maybe 1,397 isn’t an outlier?
We can look at the trend by simply comparing the data from the 10 weeks numbered 12-21 for both 2020 and 2023 as reported by the Office for Health Improvements and Disparities.
Figure 3 shows the level of registered deaths (orange line) in 2023 compared to the ‘expected’ level of heart failure deaths (blue line) in 2020. The grey bars show the variance between the two lines as a weekly percentage in line with the right-hand axis. You can see the 44% increase in week 21, the trend line has hovered between 25% and 30% over the past 10 weeks.
You may recall that the Chief Medical Officer published a paper ascribing the increase in heart failure to a reduction in the prescriptions for statins, an explanation soon debunked by Drs. Heneghan and Jefferson (see here). To my knowledge no further explanation has been floated by the authorities; rather, they’ve ignored the problem. After all, leave it long enough and the inflation of ‘expected’ heart failure deaths will make the excess magically disappear. Soon enough they may even be reporting that heart failure deaths are reducing year on year, even though they may still be much higher than the pre-pandemic level.
Finally, in Figure 4 I’ve shown the Office for Health Improvement and Disparities reported excess deaths for both heart failure and cancer. Bear in mind that the baseline in the case of heart failure has been inflated so the chart, arguably, understates heart failure excess deaths. The same is not so true for the cancer deaths. Expected deaths from cancer in 2023 are only 3% higher than they were for the same period in 2020. Over the 10 weeks from week 12-21 cancer deaths in 2023 have been only 1.7% higher than the expected level for the same period in 2020. This suggests the sharp rise in heart failure deaths is not due to a general increase in deaths from all causes such as might be caused by an ageing population.
Make of it what you will, but it seems to me that deaths from heart failure should be a real cause of concern. It’s not so long ago that the likes of Hancock and Gove were telling us that ‘one death is one death too many’. The lack of concern with the current level of excess deaths, many of them heart related – which the Government has now said it has no plans to investigate – highlights that this view was always sanctimonious tosh.
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Yep I was having difficulty believing these figures until I worked out the lads don’t even realise they are doing it because it’s institutional rapism.
Am I reading this wrong, is this parody?
Yes.
Or at least I hope so!
I was wondering that, it went straight over my head.
Am I reading your comment wrong, is this Poe’s Law?
My efforts to understand the first paragraph ended in a serious case of brain entanglement. I had a cup of tea and then went for a walk. Much better now.
“My efforts to understand” … this article have failed miserably.
‘Before things get ugly.’ The article has the sole redeeming feature of reminding me of Paul Newman’s eponymous ‘Harper’ in the 1966 film. The Sheriff (bad guy) says to our hero: “I could get ugly about this.” To which Newman replies: “You ARE ugly.”
It’s far too early to spark one up Ian.
“To understand the sheer scale of the violence against women on U.S. college campuses, we have only to refer to the Association of American Universities’ 2020 report, which points out that 18% of women taking a four-year undergraduate course will have been raped at least once by the end of it. This isn’t just unwanted touching or groping, but rape. And this figure is closely replicated in another study by RTI International”
I recall a report about a “U.S.” city where after guns were legalised, various crimes, including violations of women, decreased. Whether protecting women and children is a priority for the Democrat party in that country is another matter (and I think also of the massacre that was prevented by a passer by armed with a gun who stopped the assailant).
I might also add, I seem to recall a piece in a newspaper some years ago (possibly the Guardian?) which claimed that the hard left have a bit of a blind spot about violations of women.
And Jews.
Wow, this is certainly positive news;
”Switzerland stops the Covid vaccinations: all vaccination recommendations have been withdrawn, doctors can only administer the controversial vaccines in individual cases under certain conditions – but then bear the risk of liability for vaccination damage.Whilst it is unfortunate that they cite high prevalence of natural immunity and low levels of virus circulation as primary motivation, rather than the complete ineffectiveness and damage caused by the “vaccine”, it still represents the most courageous act by a public health authority.
Nevertheless, they do still mention those last two facts. It’s progress. Pushing liability onto the doctors is very welcome. Maybe, they’ll put a bit more thought into the part they are playing in the democide.”
https://metatron.substack.com/p/switzerland-withdraws-all-covid-vaccination
“Pushing liability onto the doctors is very welcome”
For those Drs and others in the medical industry in the UK who bother to do some research or engage in periods of CPD (continuous professional development) this development must surely be a wake up call – he wrote optimistically – or perhaps even a ruddy thunderbolt.
Welcome news nevertheless because it puts medics everywhere on notice.
“Not me guv” just won’t wash anymore and neither will “acting under orders your Honour.”
“Acting under orders” never worked. Remember Nuremburg Medical Trials…?
Good news Mogs. Do you think this court action had anything to do with it?
https://www.conservativewoman.co.uk/will-swiss-court-action-over-vaccine-injuries-turn-the-worldwide-tide/
I was thinking it’s possibly something to do with the banker who’s currently suing the Swiss Health Minister regarding his fraudulent claims about the death jabs;
https://theswisstimes.ch/swiss-banker-files-criminal-charges-over-false-covid-vaccine-statements/
I’ve no idea what point this article is trying to make.
Two words:
Ian
Rons
WTF??
ChatGPT hacked poor Mr Rons’ brain.
Looks like the DS nas been hacked.
Too subtle for me, had to look twice at the headline and still don’t get it.
Lawlessness reigns on these campuses, inside and outside the classrooms.
Yeah, I’m taking the fucking piss. Weird how many people affecting English didn’t get it.
We all got it, Ian. Anyone not appearing to get it was only taking the fucking piss.
Well don’t get upset old chap, old bean, old man.
Weird that you say “we all” though.
I’m only taking the fucking piss, Ian.
Spoken like a true… erm… Englishman.
If you have to explain the joke…
The West will have to arm trans activists in order to win.
Your tenks are stronk. Russian tenks. Stronk.
Oh, do shut up.
Weird how a p1sh article like this was allowed to be published in the first place.
Are we not supposed to be Sceptics, to see through the blarney and bullshit? Well, this article is good training. We should take nothing at face value and THINK!
Trolling the Daily Skeptic again.
Might have been funny a week ago.
What a weird article! I sincerely hope it’s parody! I don’t like IR bringing in the Russia/Ukraine conflict which has absolutely nothing to do with the problems real women are having in sport (and everywhere?). If all the DS articles become like this, I will unsubscribe!
@Ian Rons – are those stats you quote correct about 18% of female undergraduates being raped – that seems quite high?
I lived in the district of Dunwoody, greater Atlanta GA, some 25 years ago. The neighbouring district of Kennesaw had recently prior had a problem with significantly increasing home burglary, so they mandated that every household must keep a loaded gun on the property. Burglaries fell to near zero. It’s how America works.
Now if you take guns away mayhem will ensue.
I presume this meant to be satire, but it misses any humour, so doesn’t work.