The ice shelves surrounding Antarctica grew in overall size during the 11 years to 2019, according to dramatic new evidence published by three climate scientists from the University of Leeds. The growth was significant with overall shelf area increasing by 5,305 km2, adding 0.4% to the total shelf area in the 11 years under review. The paper has just been published by the influential European Geosciences Union, but it raises questions within the ‘settled’ climate science narrative, so it is highly unlikely to be covered by mainstream media
The Leeds researchers looked at satellite data to measure the annual calving position and area of 34 ice sheets accounting for 80% of the Antarctica coastline. They found reductions in the area on the Antarctica Peninsula and West Antarctica of 6,693 km2 and 5,563 km2 respectively were outweighed by growth in East Antarctica of 3,532 km2 and 14,028 km2 in the large Ross and Ronne-Filchner ice shelves. The largest retreat occurred on the Larsen C shelf when 5,917 km2 was lost in a single calving event that made alarmist headlines around the world. The largest increase, noted in slightly less media detail, was the 5,889 km2 advance on the Ronne platform.
Ice shelves around the coast of Antarctica play an important role in the cycle of ice production since they often buttress the glaciers behind them. Remove the plug and glaciers can move at a faster rate towards the coast. The shelves show considerable natural variation allowing alarmists to cherry-pick significant collapses into the sea to promote a hypothesis that the overall climate is breaking down. Typical of this coverage was an article by BBC science correspondent Jonathan Amos in 2021 under a ‘climate change’ heading, noting, “The Antarctic ice shelf in the line of fire.” In 2017, i News reported comments broadcast by Sir David Attenborough said to warn that “Antarctica’s melting ice sheets could flood London by end of century”.
The above map displays the ice shelf areas in blue that have increased in size and colours in red those that have decreased. The two large blue areas are the Ross and Ronne-Filchner areas. Little loss is shown over the east of the continent with deficits concentrated in the West. In total, 18 ice shelves are said to have retreated and 16 larger platforms have grown in area. Overall, the shelves gained 661 giga tonnes of mass over the decade. The scientists note that using a ‘steady’ state process, by which they mean no change in any variable, would produce an estimate of substantial loss over the period. They argue their work demonstrates the importance of using “time-variable calving flux observations to measure change”.
In short, and in less scientific terms, check actual observations, and ignore make-believe computer models, and the resulting stories published by climate alarmists promoting the collectivist Net Zero project.
It is not a surprise that ice shelves are currently thinning in parts of West Antarctica. The area is riddled with buried volcanos, with the recent discovery of another 91 bringing the known total to 138. Across the West Antarctica Rift System, their heights range from 300-12,600 ft. In addition, areas around the Thwaites-Pine Island-Pope glacier have a thin Earth crust causing one group of scientists to note that the “elevated geothermal heat flow band” is exerting a “profound influence on the flow dynamics of the Western Antarctica Ice Sheet”.
On a number of occasions, the Daily Sceptic has referenced the recent work of Singh and Polvani that shows current warming only in that part of the continent. Over the last seven decades, warming across Antarctica has been “nearly non-existent”, they point out. The surrounding sea ice extent has “modestly expanded”. Over at NASA, scientists have estimated any overall sheet ice loss at 0.0005% a year.
Last year, Adjunct Professor J. Ray Bates at the University College Dublin wrote a paper entitled ‘Polar Sea Ice and the Climate Catastrophe Narrative’. In the Antarctic, the meteorologist observed, there has been “no significant” change in the annual mean sea ice extent since reliable satellite measurements began. This is despite climate model predictions of a decline.
He published the above graph which showed the extent of sea ice from 1979 to 2021 along the horizontal axis. Contrary to what the models projected, the trend during this period at the September late-winter maximum is in the direction of a slightly increasing Antarctica sea ice extent. Professor Bates concludes that climate models failed to predict the growth in Antarctica sea ice, and they have missed the recent marked slowdown of sea ice decline in the Arctic. “It would be unwarranted to think they are going to get it right over the next 30 years,” he said.
He concludes: “These facts deserve to be recognised when the notion of a climate emergency, requiring the most drastic and immediate changes to the world’s economy, is being put forward. Some concern might also be shown among those involved for the increasing eco-anxiety being inflicted on the younger generation.”
Chris Morrison is the Daily Sceptic’s Environment Editor.
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Informative graph, but Pakistan and Bangladesh notably absent – camouflaged by British citizenship and/or difficult to track stats for non-citizens?
They are on the chart. Both names overlaying each other, mixed in with Nigeria and Slovakia.
Okay thanks, gotcha.
They are overwritten bottom left, just above Latvia and Slovakia.
The question is, what are our authorities going to do with this table? Ignore it, I suppose.
Just look at US crime statistics by race.
Bit of a change of tack from Farage here;
“But it is our intention, ultimately, that if you’ve come illegally, you should not be able to stay.”
”Nigel Farage has announced a change in Reform UK’s policy on illegal immigration, now seeming to support, at least in principle, the mass deportation of ALL illegal immigrants in Britain.
“I know the problem is huge, because there are an estimated 1.2 million people here illegally. And going beyond the last 100,000 is not going to be an easy job. It’s going to be one hell of a battle, and we know that the state, the apparatus of state, will fight us at every point.”
This follows his comments last year, in an interview with Steven Edginton on GB News, where he said it was not his ambition to deport all illegal immigrants, saying “it is a political impossibility.”
During the press conference, Farage also said:
“We will bring a total end to all asylum claims from people who have come here on travel visas, or who are overseas students.”
“We will demand the deportation of all foreign criminals.”
He promises Reform will appoint a Minister for Deportations if the win the next general election.
He also suggests the citizenship of foreign nationals given the right to remain in Britain may be revisited if they commit crimes.
Are Reform listening to criticism that they have softened on immigration lately?
Farage promises further policy announcements in three-to-four weeks’ time.”
https://x.com/Con_Tomlinson/status/1915357142988546439
They are still building the policy platform, and so some fluidity in the detail is to be expected.
Is that Neil-speak for Nigel’s flip flopping? He seems to be blowing in the wind these days, particularly since his chairman bought his way in and they set up yet another limited company together
Nationalities don’t commit crimes. People commit crimes and people also have a nationality. That there are lots of Albanian criminals in the UK doesn’t meant lots of Albanians are criminals (they might or might not be but nothing about this follows from the initial observation).
You’re right, but at a group level, some groups are more inclined than others to certain behaviours. The much more interesting question is what do you do with the information. There are various options, none of which will be followed.
Groups have no behaviour. If some set of people is artificially partioned into some set groups and one then looks for a certain propery among group members, the rate of occurence of the property will vary between the artificially created groups, as it would also vary for any other conceivable artificial partition. This is essentially historical information of no conceivable use beyond being descriptive for the period of time which is covered.
In addition to this, the population numbers used to calculate the imprisonment rates are estimates aka guesses as the actual numbers are unknown and the rates are really pretty low. Eg, according to the Noah Carl article, 70.3 of every 1000 Albanians in the UK are in prison. That’s 7.03% which means that about 13.2 Albanians in the UK aren’t in prison for every Albanian in the UK who is.
If you have an idea what should be done to these 13 Albanians because of the 1 Albanian in prison, I’d like to know about it. My idea would be nothing.
I would stop all immigration for a few centuries. If I ever restarted it I would favour races that had a track record of developing advanced civilisations whose history and culture were similar to ours- basically, white Europeans. I believe that would make our country a better place to live in than alternative approaches. As to those already here, deport all illegals and cut back welfare hoping that at least some of those making a negative contribution would decide to leave. Deport all foreign criminals.
That’s principally something I agree with. But not because of statistics like the one mentioned in this article which I consider essentially meaningless minus better truisms like Operations of criminals are more mobile than those of people who aren’t.
Kind of welcome but only a baby step in the right direction.
Valuable chiefly as an indication that the political weather is finally starting to change on this vital issue.
Long long way to go.