Videos and images of drones strikes on the Kremlin seem to be everywhere, and we’re likely to keep seeing them in articles, books and documentaries for decades to come. Just as when James Doolittle raided Tokyo in 1942, Ukraine has demonstrated its ability to hit the enemy at home – even if only on a small scale, for now.
The particular target within the Kremlin compound was the Senate Palace, which houses the presidential offices. However, the very small payload of the drone, and the fact that Putin is rarely at the Kremlin and doesn’t stay overnight, make Russian claims of an attempted assassination laughable. Equally amusing was Zelenskyy’s sweeping denial of involvement in any attacks on Russian soil (Ukraine has been striking Belgorod repeatedly for months) or responsibility for this specific attack (Zelenskyy also denied ordering the Kerch Bridge attack). Neither is there much doubt of Ukrainian capability in this area: Chinese Mugin-5 drones have already been used to hit Crimea, and home-made UJ-22 drones (and their later variants) are widely used on the battlefield. Both have a surprisingly long range, although we should be aware (for instance) that the claimed 800km range for the UJ-22 would be limited by any weapons loadout and by the weather. Nevertheless, it seems very likely an attack could have been launched from inside Ukraine (roughly 500km away).
My guess is that the drone was some more recent variant of the UJ-22 (perhaps a development of the UJ-31/32 ‘loitering munition’). That is very much a guess, but in the video footage it looks similar. Photographs published by Russia last week of a UJ-22 that didn’t quite make it to Moscow (one of a series of failed attacks, Moscow claimed) strengthen the notion, but it’s important that this was a Ukrainian-made device – meaning other nations (i.e., China) can’t get the hump. The same kind of thinking may have been at work when Ukraine sank the Moskva in international waters, which it did using Ukrainian-made Neptune missiles.
Having said all this, it’s difficult to rule out Ukrainian ‘freelancers’. They would have required decent funding for all these recent attacks, as well as access to explosives, but it’s not inconceivable. There is currently a $500,000 competition to land a drone in Red Square during the annual May 9th parade (shades of Mathias Rust), and rumour has it that some 1,500 potential participants have declared an interest. However, the attack might also have required inertial or even visual guidance in its latter stages, since it’s known that GPS signals are frequently jammed and spoofed around the Kremlin. In short, freelancers don’t seem very likely candidates.
There are other possible candidates, such as elements within Russia and the Russian state apparatus, but claims of an organised anti-regime resistance inside Russia are as yet unsubstantiated, and such an attack would have been a strange and highly risky move for anti-Putin elements within the upper echelons.
The motives for the Government in Kyiv to have conducted this attack aren’t difficult to discern. They might have wanted to cause embarrassment to Putin and to bring the war home to the Russian people, causing disquiet amongst the elites. They might have wanted to cause further embarrassment, by forcing Putin to skip the May 9th parade, or cancel it entirely – just as parades outside Moscow have already been cancelled. They might have simply been practising for an attack on the May 9th parade itself, or they might be intending to carry out a series of such attacks, so as to cause disruption to command centres – perhaps forcing Russia to move air defence assets to Moscow to counter it.
Of course, this article would not be complete without mention of the phrase ‘false flag’. Many have speculated that Russia attacked itself, but are usually short on reasoning. Some have suggested it was a pretext to announce full mobilisation, but it’s hard to see why anyone would be particularly outraged by a small dent in a building, even if it’s the Kremlin. Putin is actually pretty good at false flag attacks, so it would be rather surprising to have chosen a drone with a tiny payload – causing only minimal damage to a largely empty albeit symbolic building – when it would have been much more spectacular to set off a car bomb near a government building, or blow up a busy shopping centre in a terroristic fashion. The fact that this drone attack highlighted the ineffectiveness of Moscow’s air defences would hardly have been a selling point, either.
Fans of the false flag theory have pointed to the fact that one of the videos appears to have been taken not by a fixed CCTV camera, but from a handheld camera pointed directly at the Kremlin, indicating someone was expecting the attack. However, judging from the sound in the video, and its poor quality, it was (like the Kerch Bridge video) probably a second-generation video, i.e., filmed using a smartphone pointed at a CCTV monitor. False flag theorists also point to the two individuals climbing up the dome of the Senate Palace at about 2.30am when the attack happened, which perhaps also indicates foreknowledge. But there’s a simple explanation: they could have known about a drone heading for the Kremlin at a leisurely 150km/h because it was picked up on radar or visually identified, even while they didn’t have any systems capable of taking it down. Heat-seeking missiles don’t work on those things, and the nearest Pantsir that might have been able to destroy it with its 30mm cannons is parked on the roof of the Ministry of Defence building, over 3km away – outside its effective range. Other systems, such as handheld ‘drone guns’, are highly directional and rely partly on interfering with control commands, which wouldn’t work on autonomous drones.
In short, if it walks like a duck and quacks like a duck, it is a duck. This was a targeted Ukrainian attack, and could be the first of many. Perhaps the purely symbolic value of the target puts this more squarely in the realm of information warfare, but the message it sends – that Ukraine can hit any fixed target within 500km of Ukraine, right into the heart of Moscow – is one that will reach every Russian citizen. Perhaps some will ponder whether the tide of war has turned.
Stop Press: A highly informative thread from GeoConfirmed suggests the two individuals walking up the dome were responding to the first drone strike some 16 minutes before, which had caused a fire. The video of those two individuals and the second drone strike may have been taken from a hotel window.
Stop Press 2: Svitlana Morenets has written about Ukraine’s “drone army” in the Spectator, and the U.K. Ministry of Defence has apparently concluded that the Kremlin drone strikes were carried out by Ukraine.
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“… the message it sends … is one that will reach every Russian citizen. Perhaps some will ponder whether the tide of war has turned.”
Perhaps equally likely that the Russian populace, who seem far more pro their government than our miserable MSM make out, will be so enraged that they’ll support the “Special Military Operation” even more.
An interesting conclusion, isn’t it? By the same logic, Zeppelin raids on London would have made Britons think the First World War was lost. In fact, my father, as a child, was taken outside to see the Zeppelin flying overhead (just before it was shot down).
And in WWII bombs jettisoned by a fleeing Luftwaffe bomber landed on London and elicited a rapid retaliatory raid by the RAF on Berlin. And then…
I am reliably informed (by a Russian woman-in-the-street) that the Russian man-in-the-street see the USA as the villain and this will only reinforce that view. The war SMO has done wonders for Putin’s standing with the electorate.
OK so if Ukraine attacked Moscow, did NATO or the USA know about it?
They said they had no knowledge of it, so of course they did.
Indeed. Not overly credible that their “ally” would attack Russia without telling them or them finding out about it.
Everything Ukraine does against Russia is with approval by the US regardless of denials by the US.
All this coverage for a single drone attack? It’s not exactly Dresden is it.
Somebody, somewhere is determined to turn this situation into a very serious Russia v USA and vassals conflict.
If that happens it will be the fault of the US who just stand and watch and pretend no involvement.
It was convenient that Zelensky chose that day to visit Finland, and has now moved on the Netherlands, rather than go straight back to Ukraine. I guess he will turn up at the Coronation next.
The drones looked a bit ‘Fred in the shed’ so it seems pretty straightforward:
“It’s one of Russian partisan groups,”
“I cannot say more, as they have not yet publicly claimed responsibility.”
Ilya Ponomarev, former Russian MP
On the other hand, If the drone attack had not been internally staged it would have been a surprise event.
It is very likely that the official Russian response would initially have been much more disorganized as Russian officials scrambled to generate a coherent narrative.
The Kremlin has notably failed to generate a timely and coherent information response to other military humiliations not of its own making, including the falls of Balakliya and Kherson City in September and November 2022.
The lack of the usual bumbling incompetence so typical of totalitarian regimes definitely favours the ‘false flag’ theory.
There are plenty of coherent (and militarily sound) explanations for their withdrawals in the Autumn. What is incoherent is the willingness of Zelensky to sacrifice so many men to postpone the humiliation in Artemovsk (as I think it ought to be called now).
Oh dear!
That is an entirely separate point.
You seriously think Zelensky is running the campaign?
You will see.
The lack of debate on Britain´s almost psychotic determination to punch Russia´s nose to support the despotic Ukraine régime seems as bizarre as the lack of debate on the corona jabs.
Bridgen, fielding evidence as well as his own knowledge of virology, speaks to an empty chamber – and is thrown out of The Party.
Corbyn earlier questioned the wisdom of Britain so frenziedly supporting such a corrupt and dubious régime as one that . . . was shelling its own citizens for speaking the wrong dialect! He was also kicked out of The Party its very own Kneeler to the WEF.
It´s becoming apparent to us all that Kneeler Starmer is no better than the craven Tories.
What is the matter with our MPs? There are open goals all around them. But they seem more interested in their global dreams rather than the pressing problems of their constituents.
Welcome to The Party.
Britain’s support for Ukraine does not seem bizarre to all those from this country who had anything to do with Britain’s signature of the Budapest Memorandum guaranteeing Ukraine’s territorial integrity, something supported even by China. Nor does it seem bizarre to those citizens of this country who believe we should stand by our international commitments.
What was bizarre, in fact craven, was the weak response from this country and the USA to Russia’s 2014 annexation of Crimea, leading to this further invasion, as night follows day.
Russia had every right to use the “Kosovo Precedent” set by Nato and the UN in their actions against Ukraine which means the SMO was more “legal” and more “justified” as previous Nato incursions.
Ukraine’s actions against the ethnic Russians in Ukraine nullifies the Budapest Memorandum of 1994.
I agree that the Kosovo intervention was inept and said, at the time, that it would have consequences.
A peace deal similar to the eventual outcome was, I believe, available at Rambouillet; another indictment of Blair.
But it justifies nothing, certainly not the invasions, slaughters, of 2014 and 2022.
The idea that the Budapest Memorandum has been ‘nullified’ is, I’m afraid, just plain silly.
On February 10, 2022 Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov after a meeting with his British counterpart Liz Truss recalled at a news conference that the Budapest Memorandum was accompanied by a declaration, also signed by France and Ukraine, which required that all signatories should refrain from any violations of the OSCE principles, including respect for the rights of ethnic minorities. Ukraine has ignored this document to this day.
Good luck with working out the ‘ethnic minorities’ in Ukraine.
As I say, just plain silly and entirely beside the point.
Putin has, incompetently, embarked upon an adventurist policy of military expansionism with the aim of restoring to the Russian Federation all the lands of the USSR nincompoopery.
That is inhuman, just plain nutty. He will either end up in The Hague or in Saudi, at best…..
I can see now why you name is an anagram of moron.
The mask falls away.
Intemperate language invariably indicates the wrong end of the argument.
There is nothing in the Budapest Memorandum that guarantees Ukraines’s territorial integrity..although you just don’t want to accept it.
There are ‘assurances’ (as pointed out before..purposely not written as ‘guarantees’) and which place no legal obligation of military assistance on the signatories…
Pure semantics.
Assurance: a positive declaration intended to give confidence; a promise.
Assurance synonym: guarantee
Budapest Memorandum text:
‘1. The Russian Federation, the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland and the United States of America reaffirm their commitment to Ukraine, in accordance with the principles of the Final Act of the Conference on Security and Cooperation in Europe, to respect the independence and sovereignty and the existing borders of Ukraine;’
‘4. The Russian Federation, the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland and the United States of America reaffirm their commitment to seek immediate United Nations Security Council action to provide assistance to Ukraine, as a non-nuclear-weapon State party to the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons, if Ukraine should become a victim of an act of aggression’
And there you have it:
‘….commitment to seek immediate United Nations Security Council action to provide assistance to Ukraine, as a non-nuclear-weapon State party to the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons, if Ukraine should become a victim of an act of aggression’
Commitment: a pledge or promise; obligation.
I don’t know what the defence systems were that brought the drone down, but what puzzles me is why it was allowed to get so close to the Kremlin.